Doug Pertz
Analyst · Buckingham. Please go ahead
Thanks, Ed. Good morning, everyone. Today, we reported strong first quarter results including revenue growth of 15% and operating profit growth of 34%. These results meet or exceed our strategic plan targets and support our 2018 guidance. The fact that our operating income growth is more than double our revenue growth demonstrates our commitment to driving operating leverage throughout our global markets. Based on first quarter results and our results over the last year, it’s clear that our strategy to drive profitable growth organically and through acquisition is working. And we continue to have great opportunities to build on the momentum we’ve already achieved. I’ll start this morning with a reviewer of our first quarter results, summarize progress on our strategy and review our full year guidance. Both Ron and I will discuss how we expect to meet and potentially exceed our current 2019 target on EBITDA of $625 million. Our first quarter results reflect both strong organic growth and growth from acquisitions that were completed in 2017. The 15% revenue increase includes $51 million of revenue from six acquisitions completed last year with most of this coming from South America, our fastest growing and highest margin segment. Organic revenue growth was 6% slightly above our full year and strategic plan guidance of 5% reflecting growth in each of our three geographic regions. The 34% increase in operating profit reflects operating leverage of more than two times. That was driven by strong organic improvement in North America as well as strong organic and acquisition related growth in South America. Our margin rate increased 120 basis points to 8.4% up from 7.2% in the last year’s first quarter. This growth in operating profit was achieved despite a $9 million increase in corporate expenses due in part to higher security related costs that we expect to decline in subsequent quarters. Ron will address this further in our call. $0.55 of earnings per share includes about $0.03 per share related to net interest expense on excess cash from our debt financing. This interest expense on the excess cash balance on our balance sheet negatively impacted EPS by about 5%. We borrowed these funds, which we think on very favorable terms and anticipation in the future acquisitions, which we’ll talk about more in a few minutes. I’m highly confident the excess interest expense are incurring now about $20 million annually in grows interest cost, we more than offset by profit contributions from accretive acquisitions in the near future. In addition a highly – excuse me, higher year-over-year tax rate reduced EPS by another 5% or so or above $0.03 per share. As we move to 2018, we expect profit margin growth to accelerate as organic operational improvement initiatives gain momentum and as we achieve further growth from planned synergies and growth from completed acquisitions. We also expect higher revenue and earnings growth in the second half as we benefit from normal seasonality and from the addition of the Rodoban acquisition in Brazil. Now let’s take a closer look at operating results for the quarter by segment. North America operating profit doubled over the last year on revenue growth of 5% reflecting a margin rate that increased more than 300 basis points from 3.3% to 6.4%. Organic revenue growth was 2%. But when you exclude the sale of recyclers in last year’s fourth quarter, organic growth was 4% in the U.S. and 5% in North American segment. This was for the first quarter this year versus first quarter of last year. I’m especially pleased to report the profits in the U.S. were up above 40% and again excluding the recycler sale in 2017 first quarter profits in the U.S. were up 70%. Our full year 2018 target for U.S. margin remains at approximately 6% and we continue to target a 2019 margin exit rate of approximately 10% in 2019. We expect the U.S. margin to continue to ramp up as our breakthrough initiatives and investments kick in and as our stronger second half seasonality also takes hold. Continued growth income CompuSafe sales in the first quarter, which we’re on track to reach our 2018 target of 3,500 units or more, will also support achievement of these margins goals. We’re pleased with the progress in the U.S., but the biggest driver of revenue profit growth in North America was Mexico, which carried its strong performance in 2017 over into 2018, reflecting growing revenue from retailers, improve productivity and lower labor cost. Similar to the U.S., we expect productivity initiatives to have an increasing impact throughout the year, especially again with stronger seasonality in the second half. Our team in Mexico as a 2019 margin target of 15% and they’re well on track of meeting or exceeding this target and a very – and I’m very pleased with the strong results year-to-date. Revenue in South America grew by $53 million or 26% including acquisition related revenue of $37 million or 18%. Organic revenue growth was also 18%, reflecting continued strong throughout – growth throughout the most of the region. The strong 36% local currency growth was partially offset by the $20 million negative impact of currency translations, primarily in Argentina and Brazil. Operating profit was up 42%, driven by strong organic growth and acquisitions in Argentina, Brazil and Chile. The margin rate improvement improved by 240 basis points to 21.8% again demonstrating continued strong operating leverage. We expect continued growth in South – from South America, which will be supplemented by continued acquisitions such as Rodoban later this year. In the rest of the world segment, revenue was up 19% due primarily to favorable currency translation and the acquisition of Temis. Operating profit was up slightly, but down 11% on an organic basis due to continued price and volume pressure in France, which was partially offset by profit growth in other countries. We continue to believe that the competitive market disruptions and abnormally high volume of tender rollovers last year 2017 have had a significant impact on revenue and margins in France. We also believe that we will overcome much of this impact of both of these factors later this year. Unfortunately, when we – when the pricing pressure and volume decline began last year, we were in the processes of developing and implementing our strategic plan, which includes significant cost reductions that will benefit results starting this year. As a result our team in France remains confident that we’ll achieve our 2019 strategic plan margin target of 12%. We’re encouraged by our strong results in 2018 and remain on track to meet our full year guidance. We continue to expect revenue growth of approximately 8% to a little over $3.4 million. This assumes 5% organic growth and another 3% net growth from acquisitions and divestitures. It does not include any additional acquisitions. 2018 operating profit is expected to grow more than 30% to a range of between $365 million to $385 million, reflecting a margin rate improvement of 210 basis points to about 11%. This is at the midpoint of the range. We expect 2018 adjusted EBITDA to increase by approximately $100 million to a range of between $515 million and $535 million. And we expect earnings per share growth of at least 20% to a range of $3.65 to $3.85 per share. This guidance includes full year contribution from the six acquisitions completed to date and the estimated six months of contributions from our pending acquisitions of Rodoban. It also assumes continued improvement in all three geographic segments, led by the U.S., Brazil and Mexico. In addition, our EPS guidance assume that we will not – excuse me, it assumes that we will continue to pay interest on growing – on a growing balance of excess cash until that cash is deployed for new acquisitions that are expected to substantially improved earnings. While it is not our guidance, it is clearly part of our objectives to deploy this cash through added acquisitions. Our EPS guidance also assumes an increase in 2018 tax rate to 37% up from 34% in 2017. Our target for 2019 adjusted EBITDA is $625 million, which assumes full year contributions and partial operating synergies from seven acquisitions including Rodoban. And continued organic margin improvement, especially, from larger countries as we stated before and which we've laid out in our Investor Day strategic plan. It does not include any contributions from additional acquisitions that we expect to make in 2018 and 2019. Turning now to our strategic plan, with our organic initiatives continuing to gain traction, we're just beginning to layer in additional growth through acquisitions. And as we said in the past, we call this is our Strategy 1.5. We focus on acquisitions in our core business in core geographies or what we call core-core, and also on core acquisitions in adjacent geographies or core-adjacent. In 2017, we paid $365 million to complete six acquisitions that are expected to be add about $60 million to $70 million in EBITDA in 2018. With the addition of Rodoban, the seven completed and announced acquisitions are expected to be added about $90 million in EBITDA in 2019 assuming that most, but not all of the synergies will have been achieved by them. We continued to have a strong pipeline of acquisition targets that offer new opportunities to increase route density, add new customers and capture cross synergies with strong returns as we’ve seen so far. Our plan is to spend an additional $800 million on new acquisitions over the next 18 to 20 months, the strategic plan period. Also that's about $1.2 billion spent on acquisitions over the three year plan period. Valuations will vary based on geography, growth potential and overlap on existing operations. But we’ll remain disciplined in our goal to achieve both synergy mobiles between six and seven times EBITDA. Similar to the multiples of about six times that are completed and announced acquisitions are expected to yield through 2019. Our October 2017 capital raise of about $2.1 billion with more favorable debt covenants position as well to make additional core-core or adjacent acquisitions. While keeping our pro forma leverage of debt ratio below 1.4 times – excuse me, 1.5 times. It also gives flexibility should larger acquisitions become available, that could add significant strategic value to synergy capture or by enabling us to enter into higher growth markets that service what we call with total cash ecosystem. I should add that during the quarter, we signed two relatively small transactions involving our core businesses in both France and Colombia. In France, we agreed to sell our aviation guarding business, which is a non-core operation that had 2017 revenue of approximately $80 million and sub-par returns. This divestiture which is expected to close around mid-year, when enable our team in France to focus solely on its core cash management operations, including the integration of Temis. We also recently agreed to buy the 42% minority interest in our partner in Colombia. This acquisition which is scheduled close by the end of this year is expected to be accretive to earnings, cash flow and EBITDA. It also enhances our U.S. taxes position and enables us to better pursue regional acquisitions. Turning to Slide 9, our Strategy 1.0 and 1.5, which include core growth and acquisitions combined to deliver the expected $625 million in 2019 and provide the platform for further growth. We're confident that over the three year period from 2019 – excuse me, 2017 to 2019 will achieve an operating margin improvement of over 460 basis points. This is from 7.4% margin in 2016 our jumping off point year to about 12% in 2019. In 2017 last year, we added 140 basis points in margin to finish the year at 8.8% margin. And we expect to add, as we've said before in our guidance 200 basis points this year that will get us to about 11% around the midpoint of our 2018 guidance. So we're well on track to meet or exceed our 2019 margin goal of 12%. This chart shows strategic plan target margin growth by region. And this is what we have presented in prior slides as well in our Investor Day. And we continue to show a contingency in red roughly equal to about 2.5 percentage points, somewhere again to what we showed in our March 2017 Investor Day. This represents additional potential margin growth from our regions and provides a cushion, but also allows for potentially to be our 2019 target. It's important to note that a year ago, when we first released our strategic plan, our target operating margin was 10%, which we now increased to 12%. And remember, this is not including any contribution from additional acquisitions that we expect to make in 2018 and 2019, which will cover on the next slide. As stated earlier, we spent – we will have spent $510 million on 2017 completed and announced acquisitions that are expected to contributed about $90 million of EBITDA in 2019. This equates to combined purchase multiple of about six times EBITDA with some additional synergies still expected to be achieved after 2019. Our 1.5 acquisition strategy targets another $400 million in acquisitions per year in both 2018 this year and 2019. And this includes $145 million already committed for Rodoban. [indiscernible] purposes, let's assume we execute our strategy of another $655 million, that's the $800 million over two years minus the Rodoban $145 million. And this is for acquisitions this year or next year. This could potentially add another $110 million to $140 million in EBITDA after 2019, once we achieved full synergies on all acquisitions that were announced or completed by that point. We have the financial capacity to execute on these acquisitions and still remain – and still maintain a pro-forma net debt to EBITDA ratio below 1.5 times. Just as important, execution of these potential acquisitions will reduce our excess cash on our balance sheet. Improved EPS growth and yield strong returns on our investor debt, as we’ve already demonstrated through the acquisitions to date. Now Ron will provide some additional detail on the results and our financials.