Doug Pertz
Analyst · Macquarie. Please go ahead
Thanks, Ed. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. This morning, we reported much improved fourth quarter and full-year results, ending 2016 on a very positive note that strongly supports our trajectory for 2017 and beyond. Fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings grew 58% from $0.55 per share to $0.87 per share. Operating profit for this quarter was $77 million of 71% on an organic basis with an operating margin of 10% versus 6.6% in the fourth quarter 2015. Revenue for the quarter grew 10% on an organic basis helping support our 6% organic growth rate for the full-year. I'm especially pleased to report that the strong performance was partially driven by continued profit improvement and revenue growth in the US, along with improved results or both rev and margins in Argentina, Mexico and Asia. In Mexico, fourth quarter revenue and profit growth was driven primarily by continued growth in the retail sector with and customers. In the US, operating profit for the quarter was $8 million compared to a slight loss in the fourth quarter 2015. US revenue and profit benefitted from the previously announced sale of several 100 cash recyclers to a large retailer. In addition to an initial sale and installation revenue, this new business will also provide a stream of high margin recurring revenue in 2017 and future years. Looking ahead, we expect positive US year-over-year comparisons in 2017 and beyond, driven by our investments in new trucks and other strategic initiative. It's important to note that the fourth quarter is typically our strongest in most countries including the US, with the first half of the year typically the weaker part of the year. For example, our country wide operating margin in the fourth quarter up 10% compared with a full-year margin of 27.1%, clearly demonstrating the seasonality of the business. More importantly, the fourth quarter margin of 10% versus a year-ago margin of 6.6% demonstrates the material improvement in our overall performance. Our strong fourth quarter results helped push full-year earnings in 2016 to $2.24 per share, a 33% increase over 2015. Full-year operating profit was $207 million up 32% with a margin of 7.1%, a solid improvement over the 5.3% operating margin in 2015. On an organic basis, 2016 revenue rose 6% and operating profit was up 43%. Our 2016 adjusted EBITDA was $333 million. We make good progress over the last six months, and we're just getting started. We expect continued profit momentum in 2017 and beyond. On an organic basis, which excludes the impact of foreign exchange translation, acquisitions and divestitures, our 2017 non-GAAP guidance includes 6% revenue growth, operating profit growth of 18% to 23% to a range between $230 million and $240 million. And earnings growth of 17% to 21% to a range between $2.45 to $2.55 per share. Our 2017, adjusted EBITDA is expected between $370 million and $380 million. This guidance includes a projected negative foreign exchange impact of $80 million on revenue and $15 million on operating profit which equates to $0.18 per share on earnings. More information regarding our 2017 guidance including assumptions for organic growth and foreign exchange is provided on page 8 of the earnings release. In addition, Ron will provide a more detailed financial update in a few minutes. But first I want to review our longer term strategy and our plans to communicate the details of this strategy. I'll start by reinforcing our belief that there are no structural differences between the US business and our competitors operations. In fact, overall, we may be better positioned in our competition to drive shareholder value. Brink's is already the largest cash management company in the world, about 50% larger than our next largest competitor, with strong market positions in key countries and an unmatched global infrastructure. Compared to our four largest competitors, I believe we have at least as many and probably more opportunities to grow both our revenue and our margins. We have solid market positions in many countries, including the number two market position in seven of our 10 largest countries and the leading market position in the other three of the top 10. These top 10 countries represented about 80% of our revenue in 2016. Our market position in each of these countries represents significant opportunities to improve margins and grow revenue, both organically and through acquisitions. In fact, in most of these countries, we're positioned better than both the number one player and other smaller competitors to grow through acquisition due to the relative market positions we have and to achieve greater cost synergies. Our strategy is designed to achieve both organic and inorganic revenue growth while driving margins consistently higher. We've got a lot of work to do, but I see no reason while we can't meet and apparently pass the highest margins and growth level in the industry. It's about leadership, culture, strategy and execution. I firmly believe that our strategy will drive significant profit growth and shareholder returns over the next three years. Today, we provided guidance on our 2017 year. At our Investor Day on March 2nd, we'll share the details behind our three-year plan including 2019 financial targets. I'll now provide a quick summary of our strategy including some of the initiatives that are already well underway. Many of you're already are familiar with the primary components of our strategy which we summarize using three simple acronyms, APG, CTG, and IDS. APG stands for Accelerate Profitable Growth. We have opportunities to organically grow revenue in high margin lines and business, such as copy safe services and recyclers outsource money processing and brings global services. Our plan calls for growing revenue with both large and small financial institutions global services. Our plan calls for growing revenue with both large and small financial institutions or FI's, an increasing penetration in the large and underserved retail market. And with the debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, now well under one times, we have the financial capacity to complete accretive acquisitions in both core and adjacent markets. The centerpiece of our plan is to achieve operational excellence and close the gap or CTG between our margins and those of our most successful competitors. We've already begun an aggressive drive to improve internal productivity, optimize cost, and achieve industry related margins. The margin gap is clearly widest in the US which is our greatest new turn opportunity to create substantial value. But we also have specific strategies to expand margins in other countries. For example, both Mexico and Canada, we are implementing plans to improve our labor cost and other operations efficiencies to increase margins. The third component of our strategy is to introduce differentiated services to our customers by strengthening and leveraging our IT capabilities. Our IT strategy and systems will also drive improved service levels and operational efficiencies. Along with the track and trace customer portal, the systems will include productivity tools such as dynamic rod optimization and fleet telematics. On Investor Day, Rohan Pal, our Chief Information and Digital Officer will share plans for leveraging IT to drive both revenues and operational excellence. Some of you may recognize this, I'll ask you to the slide on slide 7 from our last earnings call in October. It depicts some of the key initiatives and the driving revenue and margin growth over the next three years. Our strategy encompasses a broad range of profit improvement actions but the primary focus is on what we call breakthrough initiatives which include reducing overall fleet cost, reducing labor cost per truck, optimizing our branch network, and reinvigorating our sales and marketing efforts. For example, in the US we are aggressively investing a smaller more efficient vehicle that can accommodate both 1% and 2% crews. The initial cost of these new gas powered trucks is about 35% to 40% below the cost to replace the old heavier diesel power truck. This initiative will substantially reduce the average age of our fleet, improve service levels to our customers and reduce overall expenses related to fuel, maintenance and repair. Deploying smaller crews in the US and in other countries as well is a great opportunity and eventually reduce our labor cost. At the end of 2016 for example, in the US we had about 300 trucks operating with one person crews. About 40% of these trucks were put into service during the fourth quarter. As a result, the cost savings impact was just starting to be felt in the last few months of the year. We are on track at about 400 trucks in 2017 including about 100 in the first quarter that were originally scheduled to be delivered at the end of 2016. These fleet related initiatives should have a significant impact on US margins and the ROI on these investments is very attractive. We'll provide the expected profit impact and returns on March 2nd. Reinvesting in our sales organization is another important algorithm of our plan. In the US, we are growing our sales forces aggressively to increase coverage of financial institutions and retail markets. We have great opportunities to grow account share with large institutions and to increase penetration in smaller banks that are currently under representative in our sales mix in our sales organization. On the retail side, there is significant growth potential in the large and relatively unvented retail market especially for our CompuSafe services and related higher margin offerings. As I mentioned earlier, our fourth quarter earnings were held by the installation of onsite cash recyclers for national retail. This new business will generate recurring revenue from service monitoring and cash in transit activities. In fact, the recyclers sold in 2016 alone should add an estimated $10 million in higher margin recurring revenue per year starting this year. Going to this service, the sale of CompuSafe services our key elements to our overall strategy, again more on March 2nd. The initiative I described in the last slide are primarily US based because that's where our greatest near term opportunities are but we're also executing on similar initiatives to improve margins in many other countries globally, such as France. And as we stated earlier implementing labor reduction around optimization actions in Mexico and Canada. I am also confident that we will leverage our organic revenue and margin improvements with accretive acquisitions. Ron is up next for brief financial review, then we'll open it up for questions. Ron?