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Banco de Chile (BCH)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 5, 2026

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Banco de Chile's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the financial management review, it is available on the company's website. Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer, Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations, and Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital Management. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this call is being recorded, and the information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed notes in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please go ahead.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call. Today, we will present Banco de Chile results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. We are very proud of the bank's performance this year. Once again, Banco de Chile delivered market leadership and superior financial outcomes, reinforcing the strength and consistency of our business model. Starting with our financial results. Banco de Chile ranked #1 in net income and return on average assets, #1 in net fee income and #1 in net interest margin among peer banks. This result reflects the resilience of our core revenues, solid customer activity and disciplined balance sheet management. For the full year, we generated the highest net income in the local banking industry amounting to CLP 1.2 trillion, which translated into a 2.2% return on average assets, significantly above the 1.3% achieved by the industry. We also maintained the largest market value among private banks in Chile of almost $20 billion, and we are leading the market in average trade volumes with over $25 million per day, demonstrating strong investor confidence and liquidity in our stock. On capital, Banco de Chile remained the most highly capitalized bank as demonstrated by a CET 1 ratio of 14.5%, [indiscernible] regulatory requirements and peers. Also, our risk indicators continue to be among the strongest in the industry, supported by a 223% coverage ratio and CLP 661 billion in additional provisions reflecting our sound [ with ] management culture. From a cost perspective, we delivered a 3.5% real contraction in operating expenses, consistent with efficiency efforts that we have implemented over the past several years that have leveraged on a digital strategy that has benefited productivity across all business and operating processes. On the Commercial side, Banco de Chile continues to stand out in customer experience,…

Pablo Ricci

Management

Thank you, Rodrigo. Let's turn to Slide 9. Before discussing the financials, I would like to briefly review our business strategy and our core aspirations that guide Banco de Chile's actions. At the core of our strategy is our purpose: to contribute to the development of the country, its people and companies. Everything we do across our business, our culture and our digital transformation flows from that principle. Our model is built around three strategic priorities, placing the customer at the center of our decisions, operating with efficiency and productivity and maintaining a strong commitment to sustainability and [ de ] Chile. Together, these pillars support our long-term ambition and delivering sustainable and profitable growth supported by strong governance, disciplined risk management and the collaborative culture. In line with these aspirations, we have defined clear midterm targets, as shown on the right. That reflects both our competitive position and the standards that we set ourselves. We aim to remain top one in return on average capital among our relevant peers, and maintain a cost-to-income ratio below 40%, which we have revised down from 42% based on the solid improvements we have achieved in the recent years. We also seek to strengthen our market leadership by leading market shares and demand deposits in local currency, commercial loans and consumer loans. From a customer standpoint, we are committed to delivering a Net Promoter Score of at least 73%. While on the reputational front, we aspire to rank among the top 3 institutions in Chile based on the Merco ranking. Together, these goals anchor execution of our strategic plan and reinforce our long-term vision to be the best bank for our customers, the best place to work for our people and the best investment for our shareholders. Let me now move to Slide…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez: Thank you. Rodrigo, Pablo and Daniel, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question will be on the economic and political outlook. Just wondering what have you been hearing in terms of reducing the statutory tax rate and reducing the credit card limit on credit cards? I have seen other banks with a more cautious view on the timing of the approval of both topics. So I just want to hear your view. My second question is on your loan growth expectations. I wonder if you can break down your loan growth expectations per segment? And my last question is on your capital allocation. So shareholders approved a dividend payout ratio of 85%. But Banco de Chile continues to have a very high common equity Tier 1 ratio. So just wondering how you're seeing your capital allocation in the next years? And if you're expecting to take advantage of your strong balance sheet to take market share in the second half or next years?

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Ernesto, thank you very much for the question. Its Rodrigo Aravena. In terms of the economic and the political outlook that we have. I think that there are a couple of things that's important to highlight here. First of all, we have for this year an official outlook for the economy for the GDP of 2.4%. However, we are aware about the potential asset risk in this estimate because we have seen very positive signs from the domestic demand. And also in terms of the business confidence, the consumer confidence, for example, we have seen a very positive trend. In fact, today, we have, for example, the highest consumer confidence, the expectation for the next 12 months from the household is the highest since 2018. Additionally, we have very good signals from the capital imports anticipated a good trend for investments. So having said that, I think that it's very important to mention that even though we will likely have a similar economic growth this year compared to the number that we have in 2025 and 2024. I think that the good news is the composition of growth because the main driver of activity this year will come from large domestic demand. In terms of the political agenda, political outlook, the new government will take office, March 11. Only at that time, we will know the main priorities, the main agenda. However, there is an important consensus in Chile, which is part of the agenda of the new government as well in terms of, for example, to propose a reform by reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 27% to -- we have to wait for the announcement of the government, but the consensus that the rate could fall towards, I don't know, 23% something like that. It could be a positive news in terms of the investment, in terms of the economic growth in the future. But again, we have to see what will be their priority for the new government, and we will have information on that only after March 11. But overall, today, we have a more positive view on the economy, especially from the domestic demand. But we have to take into consideration as well that the recent strengthening of the Chilean peso would review the inflationary pressures this year, which could have a potential impact in terms of interest rates. So we -- still we have some mixed trends that we have to pay special attention to. Pablo?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Okay. In terms of the interest rate caps and discussions, it's still very early, but obviously, similar to what happened in the past, the reduction leaves vulnerable or the mass market consumer markets unbanked and is precisely what occurred after those regulations that were implemented. This obviously could help return to the segment for the financial institutions. So this would be a positive move, but it's very early in the discussions to see if this will actually come through. In terms of loan growth by segment, what we're seeing for next year in the industry is loan growth growing around the 4.5% level for the industry. So we think that one of the most relevant areas that we should see a return to growth is in the Corporate Banking. So in Corporate Banking, which has been very weak over the last year, we believe that this -- we should start to see an improvement. And in terms of us what we're looking at growing is slightly -- well, above those levels, focusing in our key segments. We're seeing somewhere around the 7% nominal level of growth. Obviously, it will depend on the evolution of changes or improvements in terms of politics. We're seeing a recovery also in Consumer loans, which is very important for us, somewhere in the levels of around 6%. These numbers are nominal. Mortgage loans around the 5%, and Commercial Loans, we should see a pickup that's more around the 8%, which is the area that has had the highest difficulties over the last 5 years, where we've seen an important decrease with a special focus in those smaller and medium-sized businesses, SMEs. The third question was the capital. So I'll pass the call Daniel Galarce.

Daniel Ignacio Galarce Toro

Analyst

This is Daniel. Ernesto, as we have mentioned in the past, we have favorable gaps in terms of capital risk today, of course. And basically, we want to use them in the future as long as the economy gains some momentum. As we mentioned in our quarterly report also, we want to save and we take some market share in the future, particularly in 2026. So we want to grow above the industry in terms of loans. In the long run, and also, as we have mentioned in previous calls, we believe that we should cover, we should flow in capital ratios at least 1% above the regulatory limits. That means that probably we can float even over that margin over than 1% or something like that. But in the long run, important thing is that we want to use the capital in order to take more growth and faster growth than the rest of things.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Andres Soto from Santander.

Andres Soto

Analyst

I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding your loan growth expectations. I would like to understand two aspects. The first one is, how do you expect this loan growth to happen. Is it going to be more tilted to the second half of the year? Or you are going to see this pickup from the beginning? This considering that at the end of 2025, we actually saw a deceleration of growth for all the Chilean banks, but particularly for Banco de Chile. That will be my first question.

Pablo Ricci

Management

Yes. So for loan growth expectations, it should probably be more in the second half of the year, in line with activity and changes that can occur. You have to remember that in Chile, the government takes office on March 11. So all changes and benefits that could occur in the short term, would change after that date as well. So what we've seen in the last quarter of this year was low demand from customers from corporate customers some loan repayments from larger corporate customers and foreign trade loans that were -- that came due -- the retaken. So the fourth quarter was a little bit weaker in the commercial loans, so we should expect that in the second half of the year, we should start to see a larger pickup in terms of loans and in the medium term, we should see the possible benefits more in coming years because our expectations for the industry, remember is 4.5% nominal growth, which is under 1x the loan elasticity of Chile because we're expecting Chile to grow around 2.5% plus inflation of 3%, we're below the 1x.

Andres Soto

Analyst

Understood. And so thinking about 2027, can we assume that you -- there will be additional acceleration in lending based on this regulatory agenda that is being proposed by the new government? Or how do you see the medium-term expectations in terms of Chile GDP and lending activity?

Pablo Ricci

Management

If we look in the past, Chile always grew 2x. Probably that's more challenging to achieve by the medium-term goal or level of reasonable is around 1.4x, 1.5x, and they should be times there's higher levels of growth for a shorter period of time. So in 2027 and beyond, we should see better growth in the industry, taking back that level of growth that was lost during the last 4 years, especially in commercial loans and consumer loans.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Yes. Hi Andres, I think that it's also important to keep in mind that -- it's going to depend on the type of measure that the new government will announce. For example, there is an important consensus about the rules to reduce taxes, but the question is about the timeline of this potential reduction impacts. We have to remember that there is not an important majority in both [indiscernible]. So that's why -- there's going to be some indication between different parties, coalitions, et cetera. So that's why I think that even though we are aware about the potential average buyer now we're forecast for both for domestic demand loan growth for the GDP. I think that it's very important to analyze the specific details of the proposal of the new government especially in terms of the timeline of the potential reduction in taxes, the main area where the government will try to reduce the bureaucracy for investment, et cetera. So I think that the detail of the new proposal and the reform will be very important in terms of the potential timing of recovery of loans.

Andres Soto

Analyst

Perfect. My second question is on your guidance. You said 39% efficiency ratio. And I would like to understand better what drives this view considering your loan growth expectations and your NIM, I get a lower margin -- a lower efficiency ratio. So I wanted to clarify what you're seeing in terms of fee income, expense growth to see this would be the reason why you assume this level of efficiency?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Well, our 3-year project that was implemented, and we've seen significant improvements in terms of costs has been mostly implemented. We've seen improvements in efficiencies and productivities across the bank, a reduction in the branch network, optimizing the structure of Banco de Chile and that's permitted us over the last couple of years to have very low expense growth. For 2026, we should think of more in line with inflation expense growth due to last year's inflation affecting basically all of our numbers on operating expenses as well as some slightly higher depreciation levels because of technology investments, et cetera. In terms of operating income, as we mentioned, 4.5% NIM and fees, we should think, as we've said in other calls, our main driver is customers. So we should be having a good level of fee growth, thanks to a rise in customers, which is generally around the 7%, 1/3 is coming from FAN accounts of that number, cross-selling. And particularly this year, we should have more growth related to transactional revenues as well as some of our subsidiaries and will begin to have income from Banchile Pagos, our acquiring business. So it's reasonable to think of a level of around high single digits, low double digits for fee growth. So it should be similar to what we had in the prior year, but the composition of that number will be different because we expect more moderate growth in terms of AUM and mutual fund management, which we've had a very strong growth over the last few years.

Andres Soto

Analyst

Pablo, just to summarize, you are seeing expense growth in line with inflation and fee income above lending growth. Is that correct?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Expense growth in line, slightly above inflation and expense and fees similar to 2000 -- the prior year. We also take into consideration in operating expenses, we have in Banchile Pagos and in fees, we have Banchile Pagos as well and the rest is inflation

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from [ Lindsay Shima ] from Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

First, maybe just a follow-up on Banchile Pagos. Do you have any initial updates on how operations have been going? And then how do you see the overall market and the opportunity set there? And how much it can contribute to earnings in the future? And then my second question is just clarifying if the upside risks to local GDP growth are factored into your loan growth estimates and your overall estimates or if there's some upside risk there?

Pablo Ricci

Management

So for Banchile Pagos , it's been going very well. We started this, as you know, in the fourth quarter of 2025. Today, we have a level of around 4% of customers that are SMEs or equipment to the size of our SME book. We have about 4% of our Banchile Pagos customers. It's been growing well. We have a customer base that we're focusing this target of about 160,000 SMEs. And if we look at the smaller like mid-cap companies, that number goes up to 200,000. So we have an interesting level of customer base that we're cross-selling with our account managers, to Banchile Pagos. This number -- this new subsidiary will be adding important value to -- is one of the drivers for fee growth. It's also one of the drivers for a little bit more expensive, but it's coming out positive evolution of Banchile Pagos overall. So we're very happy with the level of growth that this product has had.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Okay. Thanks for the question. This is Rodrigo Aravena. As you mentioned, we have an up risk in terms of our GDP forecast, which is mainly based on five key drivers. First of all, we have a better [ copper ] price, which is important for the country. You know that the mining sector is important for us, represents nearly 15% of the GDP. So the improvement of the terms of trade is positive for us. Second, we have seen an important improvement in consumer confidence. Third, a similar trend for the business confidence. Fourth, we have seen an important pickup in capital goods imports, which potentially anticipate a better dynamics on total investment. And also, there are positive expectations regarding the measures that can be taken and announced by the new government, especially in terms of the reduction of [indiscernible], bureaucracy and also the potential room to reduce the corporate tax rate in the future. Of course, that when we have a better environment for the GDP, it's reasonable to expect a greater dynamics in loans. However, we have to consider that there is a delay between the GDP cycle and the loan cycle. I mean what I'm trying to say is that when you have an acceleration activity in some quarter, not necessarily, we have a fast acceleration in loans in the same period of time. So that's why I would say that we have an upward risk with GDP for the domestic demand this year that is not necessarily. We have the same asset risk for total loans this year. We can rule out that part of the recovery on loans will happen in the -- during the next year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from [ Daniel Mora Adela ] from CrediCorp Capital.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I just have one question. You mentioned that you want to be the most profitable bank in Chile in terms of return of average capital. The new guidance of 19%, 21% since conservative, if we think about the ROE expectation of a key competitor. So I would like to understand if this will be the long-term return on average capital figure? Or do you expect -- and how do you expect to expand profitability?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Daniel, well, thank you for your question. I think it's important to consider if we look at different metrics and similar levels of capital, we have a very attractive level of returns. If we look at ROA, we're by far the leader. Today, we have -- it's true we have a CET1 ratio that's higher than our peers, and that generates a lower return on average capital. But our aspiration is to be number one. So in our guidance for this year is 19% to 21%. Maybe there's some things change within Chile. Those numbers can evolve, obviously. But in the medium term, the idea is to use this capital and organic growth, inorganic growth and we need to use effectively our capital. So this should generate better returns for us, and we should begin to see a return and return on average capital similar to what we see in return on average assets which we should return to being leaders as we deploy this additional capital and growth or how we use this to become more sustainable.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Perfect. And do you have a long-term figure already incorporating the use of the excess capital that you currently have?

Pablo Ricci

Management

No, we don't have a long-term figure, but as Daniel Galarce has mentioned that it's reasonable to see banks should have a reasonable level of capital in order to grow and use during a normal course of business, which generally is in the levels of 1%, 1.5% above the regulatory limits.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Neha Agarwala from HSBC.

Neha Agarwala

Analyst

A quick one on the cost of risk and asset quality. How do you see that evolve going forward? Your cost of risk is slightly higher than what you had for 2025. It seems like it's mostly driven by the loan growth that you're expecting. But is there any other moving factors, if you could elaborate on that? And when I look at your guidance and the growth assumptions, the ROA is 19% to 21%, it seems like we could have a bit of upside risk to that number. Any thoughts that you can share on that?

Pablo Ricci

Management

Hi, Neha. Thanks for the questions. In terms of cost of risk, it's true our number of 1.1% to 1.2% is higher than what we've had over the recorded what we -- over the past few years. And that goes in line with the levels that we think are more in line with our long-term levels of cost of risk, and asset quality. We should see a year that's more -- we should see more growth this year, especially a change in mix that is more focused on SMEs, more focused in consumer loans. So the net position should be more profitability in terms of net interest margin cost of risk in the long term as this evolves to more normalized levels where we've been has been very low levels of cost of risk, which don't make sense for the cycle that we're in. We're in the cycle of GDP that's growing around above 2%, but unemployment rate quite high for this level. And coming out of a very high level of inflation that affected household income, and that's affected payment behavior. So we think it's reasonable to consider a cost of risk, which should move slowly return to the levels of our long term of 1.1% to 1.2%, but obviously, there's positive scenarios in that number if the economy improves better than expected unemployment comes down, real wage has increased more. That number could be better. So you can argue both ways. In terms of ROE, its similar to that, what's driving these numbers of ROE of 19% to 21% and part of this is cost of risk and part of this is operating expenses. So as improvements if there's surprises in the year, there can be a positive effect on the bottom line as well. And you can also have the negative effect if the surprises in the year of lower inflation, more unemployment, you can have the opposite. But considering everything that economists are looking at. We think it's reasonable the levels of cost of risk today that we should have and the levels of return on average capital.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We would like to thank everyone for the participation today. I will now hand it to the Banco de Chile team for the concluding remarks.

Pablo Ricci

Management

Thanks for taking the time to listen to our call and we look forward to speaking with you in the next quarter's results. Bye.

Operator

Operator

We'll now be closing all the line. Thank you, and have a nice day.