Earnings Labs

Banco de Chile (BCH)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, May 4, 2022

$37.88

-0.24%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.74%

1 Week

-7.89%

1 Month

-0.29%

vs S&P

Transcript

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for attending this conference call today. It is a great honor for us to present the financial results posted by Banco de Chile during the first quarter of this year, a period that, once again, we continued leading the industry in different aspects. In order to present these achievements, we have divided this call into 3 main sections. First, an analysis of the macroeconomic environment that we faced, including our forecast for this and the following year. Then we will review the main accomplishments and advances in our key strategic areas, such as digital banking, efficiency and sustainability. Then we will finalize with a deep analysis of financial results. Let me start with a general overview of the Chilean economy. Please go to Slide #3. The economy expanded strongly in 2021 as the GDP went up by 11.7%, achieving the highest figure in our recent history. As we mentioned in previous conference call, this was positively influenced by temporary factors and policies, such as the 33% pickup in fiscal standing and the more than $55 billion withdrawn from pension funds. The sum of these resources represented almost 30% of the GDP, becoming Chile one of the countries with the strongest economic response during that pandemic. Nevertheless, as these factors were only temporary, a slowdown in the overall activity has broadly been expected. In this environment, recent figures have been confirming that the economy began a slowdown in November last year, which has translated into lower expansion rate at the beginning of 2022. Accordingly, the economy grew 7.9% in the first quarter 2022 year-on-year, below the 12% seen in the fourth quarter '21. The weaker activity is even more evident on a sequential basis as the overall GDP fell by 0.4% in the first…

Pablo Ricci

Management

Thank you, Rodrigo. I'd like to begin with our main accomplishments in our key strategic projects. Please go to Slide #8. As we have mentioned in previous conference calls, we have developed a strategic project that focuses on 3 key areas. As you can see in this slide, they are digital transformation of the bank, permanent improvements in efficiency and productivity and our increasing commitment to ESG. In the next few slides, we will go over the advances of these initiatives, which are already bearing fruit. Let me start with the analysis of digital transformation. Please move to the next slide, #9. Cuenta FAN once again posted strong gains in customer acquisition, closing the period at 844,000 new clients. Of these, we have cross-sold 24% to other products and services, which include current accounts, insurance products, investment solutions, credit cards, consumer loans and mortgages. We also reinforced the digital journey to become a Banco de Chile customer by launching our new digital current account that can be opened 100% online in less than 5 minutes in 3 simple steps. This is a full bank account with no limits, with the possibility to open other products such as lines of credit, credit cards, investment products, among others. In line with our goal of building the whole digital ecosystem, we released a great new investment app that permits customers to invest not only in local stocks and mutual funds, but also international ETFs and stocks listed on foreign exchanges. Additionally, in alliance with Scotiabank, we developed a service that facilitates to make quickly and easily money transfers between banking customers by only using the mobile telephone number. This service is now available for all banks in Chile at the automated compensation center, which provides payment processing services to all financial institutions registered…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Pablo. And apologies, we had a technical issue at the start and the introduction was not heard. We would like to thank you for listening to Banco de Chile's First Quarter 2022 Results Call. If you need a copy of the management financial review, it is available on the company's website. Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer; Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital; and Natalia Villela, Investor Relations Specialist. Before proceeding to the questions, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and that information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed notes in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. We will now move to the question-and-answer section.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] So our first question comes from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta

Analyst

I guess my question is in terms of the long-term ROE guidance you gave of 16% to 18%. Just to think about how soon you would expect to get there, right? I mean, this year, obviously, you said you'll be above 20%. Do you think you'll get there next year? And to understand it will be mostly a function of inflation coming down? Also kind of curious, you have a very low GDP growth expectation for next year. Do you expect a significant slowdown in loan growth next year? Any concerns about asset quality with GDP decelerating that much? Just to help us think about the trajectory to get back to that 16% to 18% ROE from here.

Pablo Ricci

Management

So one of the things what we mentioned is that this year, obviously, we have strong -- we had a high level of inflation, and that was benefiting us substantially in terms of our bottom line and profitability, and also the repricing of our assets and liabilities, which are affected very positively from the increase in interest rates. So in terms of how long it will take to go back to that long-term ROE, it's still -- we're in a transitional period, where we're still seeing in the next quarters high inflation. But we should start to gradually see a reduction in ROEs in line with that level of inflation. So it's in part inflation-driven, but it will be offset by repricing of the portfolio. So what we're expecting is the first half of the year above 20% ROE and it will trend down to 20% around the end of the year. For 2023, 2024, it depends on, on the one hand, inflation, which we're still expecting to be high in 2023, which is around 4% or 5% -- remember that every 100 basis points of inflation with the current gap that we have today is about -- we have the gap of -- that generates about CLP 75 billion in net interest income or close to 20 basis points in NIM. So that would be going down from around 8% to around 5% or 4%. So have an impact there in terms of the bottom line. But we also have the benefit of the higher rates. Remember, if we look back 1 year ago, we were at 0.5% overnight rates. And today, we're expecting to be around the 8% level at year-end. And that should normalize a little bit downwards. But that's also benefitting us. So in the short term, for rates, a change of 100 basis points in rates. Over the year, on average, is about 5 to 10 basis points benefit for us. And once everything reprices, approximately 3 years, everything else equal, it's about 30 basis points. So we do get a benefit from that. So next year will still be a positive year. So probably it's a transitional period, depending on many other factors, permanent impacts of the economy, employment, risks that could arise. If we're just looking at the top line, it will still be a positive year. We have to see how the economy evolves for the other line items.

Daer Labarta

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And then just any color you can provide on -- with that slowdown in GDP growth that you expect for 2023, how that could impact potentially loan growth and asset quality?

Pablo Ricci

Management

For the slowdown in GDP, we're seeing around a level of 1.5% for this year. And the elasticity, what we're seeing is closer to 1% and -- or 1x or around that, slightly lower for the industry. For us, what we're seeing is we're very focused in growing in the SME segment in consumer loans, which we feel that -- especially the latter -- will have a better dynamism than other products and services that we offer, especially because of the current uncertainty that we're seeing in Chile. So there is a slowdown we're expecting with rates. So expect mortgage loans and other uncertainties which is affecting commercial loans. But we do still see positive levels of growth in terms of consumer loans and SME loans with the growth hovering around for the industry of 8% and us capturing market share -- the intention to capture a little bit of market share in those key products. In terms of risk, we haven't seen any sectors today which is a particular concern, but we're monitoring all the cyclical sectors that do have more volatility during the slower economic times. So we are monitoring, but we haven't seen a sector that is concerning or that we're seeing a pickup in NPLs as of yet. But obviously, we have to take this into consideration with the higher levels of inflation, lower growth and uncertainty here and abroad and still where the COVID crisis isn't over. So this is something that we have to look at. But in terms of risk, we're seeing for this year a level of around 1% and then in the medium term is around the -- remains around the 1.1%, give or take a little.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Mollin of Scotiabank.

Jason Mollin

Analyst

My question -- I mean, very robust outlook and seems realistic to expect that as inflation comes down, longer-term ROE will come down. What other risks do you see that could impact medium, longer-term profitability? We are hearing about this deal or this project that some in the government have proposed to eliminate -- I guess, forgive loans or eliminate reporting of past-due loans. How do you think of this? And is this a real risk to the way that the Chilean banking system has been operating?

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

This is Rodrigo Aravena. So we are aware of several uncertainties that we are facing now. One of them, of course, coming from the rest of the world -- of course, since the Chilean economy is a very open economy, you know that the trade volume in Chile, for example, represents more than 50% of total GDP. So that's why it's very important to monitor what's going on, for example, in China or the United States economic growth. This is a very important factor for us. The same for the copper price. Internally, we can say that we have 2 key sources of uncertainty. One of them is related with the evolution of the economy. What we're expecting for this and the next year, I would say, is like a U-shaped trend in economic growth. We're expecting a negative economic growth actually for the second half year, which is consistent with the 1.5% economic growth for this year. For 2023, we can rule out a negative growth for the overall GDP. Even though our estimate today is around 0.2%, 0.3% for the next year, we know the possibility of a downward bias in this estimate. So basically, for the long run, we have been adjusting -- slightly adjusting the estimate for the potential GDP growth for Chile. Today we expect an economic growth for the long run of around 2%. A couple of years ago, the number was between 2.5% and 3%. So of course, in an environment where you have a lower capacity of growth for Chile, it would have a negative impact in terms of the potential loan growth for the medium term. Additionally, we are aware of the lower elasticity from the GDP -- sorry, between loans and GDP. In the past, we used to see elasticity…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes at JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

Congrats for the 27% ROE, very, very sound. I have a question regarding your earnings sustainability for 2023. I guess, maybe too early. But I see several headwinds, right, like volumes, like weaker GDP, potentially worsening asset quality, inflation. I know it's still very high, but decreasing from 2022. So a headwind for effective tax rate, a headwind for margins. So my question is, what is the likelihood of earnings decreasing next year versus a very strong 2022, especially in the first half. Do you think this is real, like earnings could decrease? Or like the bank could eventually revert additional provisions that I know you have a lot of additional provisions, so maybe that kind of offset like the potentially weaker revenues? So just trying to understand like the trend for the next year if that could be like a weaker kind of EPS given this normalization. And I have a second question regarding competition. I remember in previous calls, you're saying that mortgages prices, they were very low, and you would be a bit more selective growing that segment. So just checking an update here. How do you see competition in Chile given this kind of lackluster economic environment? Like are you seeing other peers getting a little bit more rational, not yet? Like what is your view for different products here regarding your peers?

Pablo Ricci

Management

So for -- again, as we mentioned in the call, the last couple of years have been different years from normal cycles, where we've had very extraordinary events, for example, very low cost of risk, which has been sustained, and we've had high levels of inflation. And that's been generating the very high bottom line. Obviously, the current levels of inflation, the market didn't anticipate this earlier on or at the end of last year for 2022. So really, there are extraordinary levels of income for the bottom line in terms of these revenues. So for 2023, probably will be more of, again, a transitional year, but will trend more downwards to a more normalized level of our ROE, maybe still depending on the outcomes of risk and all that. It could be still a transitional year, where we can see higher levels of ROE. But it's difficult to see that today. In terms of additional provisions releasing, we really need to see a long-term view of how the economy evolves. There's still many risks being seen. And it's not a strange scenario that we could see that in that case for 2023. So I think it's reasonable to expect that 2023 is -- should be a year with an ROE that's lower than 2021 because of lower levels of inflation. 2022 -- sorry, not 2021. So we think that this is a transitional period. In terms of competition in Chile, it's true in Chile there's a lot of competition. It's a competitive market, where we've seen over the years strong competition in different segments, players in the market. What we're seeing is a slowdown in Chile. Probably, there's a lot of uncertainties which need to be resolved before we can see growth pick up again. But there's nothing in particular that we could mention that we're seeing unreasonable in how the market is operating today.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez at HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Also congratulations on the results. 2 questions. First one is on the payments business. We have seen some of your competitors set up alternatives, Getnet, in particular. Are you planning to start your own network? Or you expect to continue to collaborate with the single one that we had in the past? And second -- and this may not be a question for you. It's more for your shareholders. Have you had any discussions with Citigroup regarding their long-term investment in the bank? And have they -- I mean they have been selling in other markets? Do they remain committed to Chile? Or should we perhaps think of a change in shareholding in the near or distance future?

Pablo Ricci

Management

So in terms of the different payment businesses that are existing, we've been investing a lot in different technologies and digitalization initiative. For example, we just launched a new payment service called Pago Dos, which is a very important payment service and it's very well known in other markets in the world, where you can do simple transfers by just using the telephone number. And we really hope that it catches on to other banks. It's available for everyone. We went into alliance with another important bank in Chile to make this payment system, as we showed in the presentation. And today, we're comfortable on how we're working. Obviously, everything -- we're analyzing the different opportunities, but there's nothing that we can mention today that will change this perspective relevantly today. If we look at the main player in the market, it's Transbank. We work together with Transbank, and they have most of the volume in the industry. And for us, this -- our agreement -- we've been quite successful over the past. And with the changes that we've seen today, we're seeing a general adequate revenues. In terms of the second question of Citigroup, what we're seeing is that the -- well, there's 2 parts to this agreement. It's important to mention that they have the investment through LQIF in Banco de Chile, which they've held since a long period ago and Banco de Chile has been a very profitable bank in that portfolio in terms of our profitability here in Chile. We don't have information today which we can offer regarding their information on how they would continue in Banco de Chile. But this is something that you'd have to, I guess, speak with Citi. But there's nothing that we have or information that we can provide. But it's important to mention that, on one side, you have the investment. On the other side, you have the commercial agreement, which has recently been reapproved, we agreed upon, which aligns all of the commercial activities that we do together with Citi in international activities. So that continues.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Okay. And for how long has that agreement been renewed?

Pablo Ricci

Management

It's always renewed for a couple of years since its beginning. It's always reviewed and aligns all the initiatives. It's generally around 2 years at each renewal.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

And on -- sorry, I'm coming back to Transbank. I mean, it has required a capital injection. You are happy to continue to provide capital to maintain your market share -- your capital ratio...

Pablo Ricci

Management

Transbank is generating revenues. So Transbank already -- in the past, there was a capital injection, but it's already generating revenues in it's a self-sufficient leader in the market.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

So we don't have more news so far to share on that.

Pablo Ricci

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

We have a question from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez: My first question is on loan growth and asset quality. I just wanted to hear from you how you're seeing the evolution of the mortgage portfolio considering the macro expectations? And also what would be your lending appetite in the consumer portfolio? And then my second question is a follow-up on the sustainable ROE. Just want to double check if the sustainable ROE is around 16%, 18%. And it is interesting that this year is supposed to be a strong year in light of high inflation. You have strong fundamentals in terms of asset quality, cost to risk, giving extra provisions, still economic growth. But when looking to 2023, you are expecting practically no growth. You're seeing negative growth in consumption. Inflation going down from 8% to 4.8%. But on the other hand, you are also saying that interest rates should benefit loan repricing, but also you have higher effective tax rates on low inflation. And also there could be some potential impact on the interchange fees. So I wanted to hear your thoughts and if you think that 2023 could be more challenging than you have previously expected?

Pablo Ricci

Management

In terms of asset quality, as I mentioned, what we're seeing is a good level, positive levels of asset quality, but don't align with the cycle. So a very, very low cost of risks that we've seen. There's no segments that we've seen that is particular concerning. But we are monitoring. In terms of interest rates in Chile, it's important to mention that interest rates are generally fixed interest rates, but in UF -- salaries generally in Chile are indexed to inflation. So we haven't seen any changes in light of that as well. If you look at other products and services, like you mentioned, consumer loans. Consumer loans also, what we've seen is very low cost of risk and adequate levels of -- actually, very good levels of growth we've seen up to date. Now risk appetite, what we're seeing is industry growing this year around the 8% level. We should -- we're looking to gain in key market segments, which are SME loans and in particular, consumer loans growing slightly above the industry. So we have an upside to grow there, especially in the upper income individuals. And we've been very strong in growing our customer base through our new -- or relatively new Cuenta FAN, the digital bank account that we have. And also, we just launched a new current account, which is 100% digital as well that we're growing customers there as well. So we've been cross-selling those customers. And through renewed or reinforced marketing campaigns, we've been able to continue growing well in consumer loans. For next year, we think that it will still be -- it's still uncertain here. We still aren't out of COVID. So there's still a lot of uncertainties, as Rodrigo mentioned in the call as well. So we'd have to…

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Let me add just what is the idea about -- relative to the evolution of activities that we are expecting for the future. You're right in terms that the average economic growth in the next year will be lower than this year. However, it's very important to be aware that there will be a negative economic growth in the second half of this year in both on an annual and sequential basis as well. So my point here is that probably the weakest part of the economic cycle will be in the second half of this year in terms of activity. In fact, we have seen a decline in terms of the level of total consumption in Chile. For example, in the first half -- sorry, in the first quarter of this year, the total retail, e-commerce sector declined by 4.6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter. And probably, the total consumption will continue declining during the second half of this year. I'm saying this because for the next year, we will likely have an upward trend inside the year. So basically, our forecast for -- our quarterly forecast for the next year is that in the first quarter there will be a negative economic growth on an annual basis, but there will be a recovery in the second half of 2023 in terms of both total activity and consumption as well. It's very important to keep in mind as well that we're expecting an above trend inflation at least for the next couple of years. So we are not expecting a 3% inflation at least until 2024 in an environment where probably the interest rate of equilibrium of Chile is a bit higher when we compare with previous years. So at the end of the day, this positive trend inside of the year plus a high inflation plus higher equilibrium interest rate plus all the long-term positive impact from all the several initiatives that we've been taking in terms of the cost side, in terms of productivity will support our long-term estimate for ROE, which is between 15% and 18% for the long run.

Operator

Operator

I'm not seeing any more questions. So I will hand back to Pablo and Rodrigo for closing remarks.

Pablo Ricci

Management

Thanks for joining the call today. And we're happy to hold our next conference call with you on the second quarter results. Thank you all very much for your time.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today's call. Thank you.