Earnings Labs

Banco de Chile (BCH)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, May 8, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Banco de Chile's First Quarter 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. If you need a copy of the press release, it is available on the company's website. Today with us, we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Institutional Relations; Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations; Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control; and Natalia Villela, Investor Relations Specialist. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and that information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed note in the company's press release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Aravena. Please, you may proceed.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Good afternoon, everyone. First of all, I hope that all of you are healthy and safe in this challenging time. I would like to start this conference call by thanking you all for joining us this afternoon. Today, we will share our views related to the evolution observed in the macro environment, and then we will present a review of the financial results posted by Banco de Chile during the last quarter, with a special focus on our competitive advantages and our long-term fundamentals. Let me start with our analysis of the new macro scenario. Please move to slide number 3. As you may know, the rapid spread of COVID-19 has had a material impact on the global economy with GDP estimates plummeting in a very short period of time. In only four months, the IMF has reduced the global growth forecast from 3.3% in January to minus 3% in April, with a deeper slowdown in advanced economy, as seen in the top left chart. In this environment, the IMF said the world economy is facing the worst recession in a century. However, this crisis has a lot of differences from any other observed in the past. One is the magnitude, as nearly two-thirds of the global labor force is not working normally in their physical workspaces. Additionally, since this crisis doesn't have an economic root, the role of economic policy is limited to reducing further negative spillovers instead of solving the problem. The greatest impact will be seen in the real factor of the economy, mainly employment and production, rather than in the financial sector, as we saw in the last global crisis. In fact, the sharp increase of the initial jobless claims in the United States reflects a rapid deterioration in the labor market, which will probably be…

Pablo Mejia

Management

Thank you, Rodrigo. Our successful history has been achieved through a consistent strategy and strong fundamentals. All these factors, together with our strategic initiatives, have set the ground to create a sound bank that Banco de Chile is today. A key element of our business strategy and a clear competitive advantage has been our focus in transforming Banco de Chile from a traditional bank to one that delivers superior service with an increase in importance on digital channels. In this new context, we firmly believe that we must provide the same level of customer service that we have offered in the past through excellent relationship managers, but we also must excel in new digital solutions. Customers are demanding more with less contact and faster delivery times. During the last years, we have implemented many initiatives such as deeply understanding our customers and their life cycles, based on big data and using this knowledge to increase crossselling. In this more modern bank, we are also preserving the importance of our branches. Despite that we have been optimizing the network; we believe that branches are an important component of our service model, especially because we are a universal bank that attends all segments of Chile. A large number of these branches are located in areas outside of Santiago and this is precisely where a significant part of GDP is generated, especially industry, energy, infrastructure, mining, and SMEs; as well as personal banking customers. Thanks to this network, we not only have account managers in regions, but we also have risk specialists that are closer to projects, allowing us to understand risks better, providing superior local knowledge that in turn helps maintain and reduce cost of risk, especially in negative cycles. We also have the best brand in the Chilean banking industry. Year…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open to questions. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Claudia Benavente with Santander. Please go ahead.

Claudia Benavente

Analyst

Hi. Thank you for the presentation. I was wondering a little bit regarding Slide 16, like you've made already downgrade to some corporate loans. And the net impact to reserve since barely unchanged. We hold a strong position on additional research. So the fact that the macro environment will continue deteriorating, do you think it's necessary to build more additional research? Or do you think with the current level you hold is enough? Thank you.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Thank you very much for the question. What can we say about that, that Banco de Chile has had a conservative risk policy over the time, which is reflected in the strong ratio higher than two times, which possibly compare with any other bank in Chile. Since the economy is beginning to have a deep recession with an unusual uncertainty, we can rule out that the bank will increase its additional provision at some point of the year. However, it's important to mention that this decision is taken by the Board of Directors. So any decision related to that area has to be taken by the Board of Directors.

Claudia Benavente

Analyst

And maybe a follow-up on that respect. I understand that coverage ratio is a result. Nonetheless, do you feel that there is, like, a minimum level that is comfortable for you? And when considering that, do you add the additional reserve on your, I don't know, guidance estimate or you don't take a look at all to the coverage ratio? Thank you.

Pablo Mejia

Management

Right now, because of the high level of uncertainty, it's difficult to give guidance for these figures. But it's important to mention that in terms of our coverage ratio, it's more a product of the provisioning model that generates the level of provision. We don't have a target for generating a certain level of coverage.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

There's not a specific target off of that. Yes.

Claudia Benavente

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Tito Labarta

Analyst

Hi, Paolo and Rodrigo, thank you for the call. I guess following up just in terms of asset quality and provisions. I know it's hard to give any guidance in this environment. But just trying to put into perspective, right? If you look at your NPL ratio, it's already, like, 1.4. It's like the highest level it's been in a while and I know probably impacted by the process at the end of 2019. So just when you think about the cost of risk today compared to history and previous crises and the NPL ratio where it is, how can we just kind of put that into perspective, right? Because if you look at cost of risk, historically, you were around 1%. You're already at 1.6% this quarter. Is looking at history helpful at all? I mean, if you go back to the global financial crisis, I think you peaked around 2%. Is that sort of a good sort of an example to look at given also changes in the loan portfolio over the years? So if you could just help us at least put into context how bad things can get in terms of the cost of risk and NPLs. I don't expect specific numbers or anything, but just kind of how we should think about it and compared to history in particular. Thank you

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Hi, Tito, and this is Rodrigo Aravena. We are going to divide this answer in two parts. So at first, I think that is very important to keep in mind that this crisis is very, very different from any other crisis that we have in the past. So today, we don't have enough information as to provide any estimate, for example, in terms of the size of the recession in the short term. We don't know how many quarters there will be a negative growth. And therefore, it's very hard to forecast any number about unemployment rate in the future. So that's why there is a very important uncertainty in terms of the potential increase in the cost of risk in the future. Of course, we can anticipate a higher cost of risk relative to what we thought in the beginning of this year. So the – it's very hard now to make any comparison with the previous recession. Pablo, do you?

Pablo Mejia

Management

I think some point to mention about previous discussions in – at the end of the 1990s and the Asian crisis, the level of provisions for the industry rose to around 1.8%, 1.9%, if I'm not mistaken, and a similar level in the financial crisis. In Chile, there is two events occurring in the financial crisis. One was the financial crisis where we saw a rise in unemployment that went the levels of around 11%, 12%. But at the same time, we had the salmon industry crisis, which was a virus that affected that industry and affected the quality of that product and, in turn, affected the exports. So in 2009, that was very significant for the industry. In terms of how Banco de Chile looks at that point, we had an important participation in that segment similar to our market share. And we also had a very important participation in the lower income segment, which meant that almost one-third of our loans to that lower to the Consumer Finance segment was represented total consumer loans. So today, if we look at consumer loans due to different regulations and changes that occurred after different events, since 2009, the consumer finance portfolio has decreased the size of its importance within our – the relative importance within our portfolio. So it went from around 7%, 8% to around 2% today. So that should also have a limited factor in terms of the impact that we have on our figures.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

And one other important thing to consider here, Tito, is that there will probably be a difference between the economic cycle in terms of GDP growth, unemployment and the asset quality cycle because as a consequence of reprogram loans, we can't rule out that there will be a deterioration in terms of quality in the second half, in the third or even in the fourth quarter of this year in a moment when the economy will likely be better than now. So it's important to have – to keep in mind this potential difference in terms of the cycle of the asset quality relative to the economic cycle.

Tito Labarta

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And maybe just a follow-up. I guess, maybe in terms of exposures to sectors that are most at risk, I don't know, like tourism or retail, how do you see in terms of your exposures and the sectors that are most at risk?

Pablo Mejia

Management

We have a widely diversified portfolio, not only in terms of segments, but also in sectors. If you look at the portfolio and we compare our portfolio with the industry, you can see that Banco de Chile has the lowest exposures, and the industry is most at risk. For example, if we look at the hotels, restaurants and retail exposure, we're at a level of around 4% when the industry is at levels of around 7%. In transport, we're at levels of below 2%, while the industry is at levels of 3%. In terms of other areas, education, we don't have anything relevant there. So we're quite comfortable with the positions that we have managed in Banco de Chile.

Tito Labarta

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Jason Mollin with Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Mr. Mollin, your line is open at our end, is it possibly muted on yours.

Jason Mollin

Analyst

Thank you. Thanks, Rodrigo. Can you hear me?

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Yes. We can hear you.

Jason Mollin

Analyst

Hello?

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Yes, yes, yes. Hi.

Jason Mollin

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you. First, maybe a question, Rodrigo, on – just a question, maybe an update on the constitutional referendum that we're expecting in the political environment on Chile given this particular social unrest we had last year. What are your thoughts on how -- on the implications for that going forward in Chile? And more specifically on the bank, if you can talk about cost and long-term strategy. You showed an increase in use of the digital channels. Does this change the long-term strategic objective, for instance, in the value of branches? Could we see some branch closings? And what other factors your efficiency is already looking pretty strong, especially year-on-year? But what could the bank do in this kind of tough environment to improve efficiency going forward? Thank you.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Hi, Jason, thank you very much for the question. First of all, it's very important to mention that in our baseline scenario, there will be a temporary worsening in the economy. We are aware of the contraction that we will likely see in the short term. In the second quarter, for instance, we are expecting a decline on the GDP of around 10% with a negative growth of around minus 3% for the whole year. However, we are working with a better scenario for 2021. So if it works, we have attained our long-term strategy. Pablo will go into more details on that. But the key element of our base scenario is that there will be a temporary contraction of the economy. In terms of your question about the constitution, the political discussions, et cetera, what we have to say is that most of the discussion in the – during the last two months, I would say, have been more related to the countercyclical policies in terms of the social spending growth, in terms of the support to households, possible income for family, the same in terms of providing more financial support for SMEs company. So what I'm trying to say that during the last two months, I would say, what we've seen is a shift in terms of the discussion moving from one discussion more focused on political issues, the new constitution, they're referring, et cetera. But more recently, we've been discussing much more about the policies that the country needs to face to address this crisis. The referendum was scheduled originally for April this year. It has to be postponed due to the COVID-19. So far, the date for the new referendum will be October, but there is an uncertainty in terms of when will finally be the referendum, because we don't know how will be the contingency of the spread of COVID-19 in the future. So I would say that, we are aware of the political uncertainty in some areas remain, but during the last month, we've been more focused on discussing the contra-cyclical policies as to have a shorter crisis and a stronger recovery in the medium term. So far, what can we say that there's been a very important package from the government, from the Central Bank, from the financial, from CMS as well. So, we are optimistic on that. Pablo, for the long term.

Pablo Mejia

Management

So in terms of expenses, we've been very focused on continuing to control expenses in Banco de Chile, and it's beginning to bear fruit, as you saw this quarter. So this continual focus has had many different projects. If we just name a few, we've been – we improved the credit evaluation in the past. Banco de Chile made it much more efficient. We improved the personalized pricing system, which not only made it more efficient the whole process, but also improved the customer experience by improving delivery times. Just recently, we implemented a purchasing desk, which basically evaluates all of the purchases that we do in Banco de Chile that are related to administration expenses. And basically, they review all the services, materials, advisory services that we do in Banco de Chile to control our cost better. And in terms of digital bank and how this has been changing, how we do our business, it's something that we've put a lot of effort in the last five years, implementing many different changes by improving the whole customer experience from the point that they log onto our website, via the – or by using the app. So we've been focusing on improving that experience. And we have new projects that will be coming out in the following – this year regarding that, as mentioned in the presentation, which should continue improving that experience for customers. So all this has meant that we've been improving our customer experience – our cost in Banco de Chile. And we haven't left the branches. So what we've been doing in the branches, we have a new branch model, which is basically adjusting the service model within the branches, including much more services, their self-service, more ATM, where customers can do more transactions quicker, adjusting the responsibilities within the branches to give a more appropriate experience based on the new environment for living with the digital evolution. And this has meant that, we've been renovating branches and optimizing the network. So we've been closing branches. If you look at this year, we've closed 17 branches, and this is a project that we should continue seeing a more streamlined branch network in the near future. It's important to remember that Chile is a long country. So outside of Santiago, there's not that many branches within each of the cities. So it's limited the number of branches that we could potentially close. And in terms of this year, we should be seeing a efficiency ratio somewhat similar to what we had last year, we're expecting and a cost base increase of around flattish.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

I will let reinforce one idea. We haven't changed our long-term strategy. We haven't changed our main long-term priorities, where digital bank is increasing more and more important.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Rodrigo and Pablo, hope you're doing well. I have a follow-up in this economic or in this referendum to changes in the constitution. I believe it will return again at some point in the year as I think social unrest is not showing up, because of the lockdown. But if next October, the population decides to do constitutional changes, I believe this could be an important subject for future economic growth. So if this is delayed more, do you think this could be a risk for the economic growth next year?

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Hi. Thank you very much for the question. I think that, it's very important to identify the short-term drivers for growth relative to the long-term drivers of growth. In the short term, we've been more focused on the design, discussion and implementation of countercyclical policy that reduced the size of the impact, the negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis in the economy. In that area, we can say that Chile has been very successful and positively compared with other countries in terms of the size of the fiscal response and the modern response and the coordination and timely response as well. So we have to consider that, for example, in Chile, the first sanitary measures were taken only 16 days after the first case of COVID-19. So in terms of the policies that aim to reduce impact of this crisis in the economy, we've been very successful. And this has been the main area where we've seen more discussion. In terms of the discussions for new topics or contents or proposals for new constitution, naturally, we haven't seen a deeper discussion on that. Of course, that a new postponement of this referendum, there would be a higher risk in terms of more uncertainty, lower growth. But to be honest, I think that given the size, given the degree of uncertainty that we have right now with COVID-19, I think that is much more important to pay attention to the evolution of the virus, the ability of the government to react, if more stimulus are needed, et cetera. So in the short term, I think that it's much more important to pay attention to the next figures of the economy, the farther responses of the authorities. I would say that, the discussion in terms of constitution, in terms of the potential results of the referendum will be more retaken by the end of this year.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Thank you, Rodrigo. Can I have a second question in terms of provision charges? It's a follow-up. So just wondering, when do you expect the peak in provision charges? And what of your portfolio is based on expected losses? Are you building provisions from those clients that apply for the relief programs? Or as they have not defaulted, do you expect to create more provisions by year-end? We have seen U.S. banks, banks in Spain, Peruvian banks, Colombian banks that are already recognizing big provisions during the first quarter. So why not creating this contracyclical provisions that Chile can do now?

Pablo Mejia

Management

In terms of what's happening with provisions, it's true, because of all these benefits that have received by customers and certain flexibility of the regulator. This changes the way how banks are provisioning in Chile their loan portfolio. Banco de Chile has been very proactive. I don't know if it's the most proactive, but we're -- like we mentioned in the call and the earnings release, we are proactive in reviewing the corporate book, which we'll continue reviewing, obviously, and that was part of -- an important part of it rises in provision expenses this quarter. When we look at which sectors and how this will evolve in the following quarters, probably, we should start to see a certain level of impact in the second half of this year, closer to the end of the second quarter probably, in the provisioning models, because most customers have had or has that we made available a facility that they could postpone payments, those loan installment payments. So the model uses a lot of overdue loans, the base credit risk. Also, SMEs have had benefits as well from different initiatives of the government and from banks. So probably, we should see, first, the impacts in the wholesale segment, like we did this quarter, which that should continue for us, possibly as we review the loan book and for the industry, followed by -- as the three months pass of the benefits that banks gave their customers, we should begin to see an impact in the retail portfolio. Depending on how the evolution of the economy evolves and how quickly COVID-19 is recovered or not recovered, that will be -- that's a big question mark, whether occurs with COVID-19 to get back to running the economy normally.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Thank you, Pablo. And please, maybe ask a third question on loan growth. We saw an important acceleration in middle-market loans due to the currency depreciation. And I also think there were some withdrawals from companies anticipating to have more liquidity. So I would like to know your strategy in the short term. Are you going to focus on your own client base? Or are you also going to provide credit to new clients? And any color in which segments you expect to be more selective? And which ones you expect to grow? I think it will be very helpful.

Pablo Mejia

Management

So, right now, there's not so much demand in Chile, because of the high level of uncertainty that's occurring. So, obviously, we're always reviewing different deals as they come about, but there's not much going on in terms of demand. Probably, what we'll see in the next quarters is stronger demand related to these COVID loans that have guarantees from the government, which is a huge program of CLP 24 trillion. If you take into consideration the size of the Chilean banking industry, it's a significant amount of loans. And what we should probably expect is that, the driver for loan growth for the industry and most banks will come from that, which will be applied to the SME customers. But it's not only SMEs, because it's up to sales of $35 million -- equivalent to $35 million per year. So it also includes an important amount of larger companies as well. So that's probably the main driver for the remainder of the year. In terms of mortgage loans, you have to remember that the mortgage loan, what happened there, it's a pipeline of loans. So what customers purchased in December is what banks reflect in March. It takes two to three months to reflect that loan. So probably what we saw in the chamber of commerce of sales, lower demand, lower sales should slowly be reflected in the bank's balance sheet. And in consumer loans, there's also less demand in terms of consumer loans. So we should probably not see a significant change in that level, in that product as well.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

Thank you, Rodrigo, Pablo. Thank you, gentlemen. I have a question regarding the amount of renegotiated loans as a purchase of the book, if you have this number. I read in the release, I guess, 25% of the retail clients, but I don't know how much of that on the wholesale book you also have and like how much renegotiated loans represented on your total loans. And my second question is regarding the renegotiations you had back in the social unrest. How they are behaving, really to renegotiate them again? And any lessons you learned back then like that you say, you are going to use now for the COVID, your renegotiations that you want to share. Thank you

Pablo Mejia

Management

Okay. In terms of -- so you mentioned you already know the retail book. In terms of the SME book, the renegotiated loans were actually not so significant prior to the COVID loans and represented something less than 2% of customers, whose -- if we have 100,000 SME customers, over 100,000, and there was about, if I'm not mistaken -- sorry, there was about 2,500 customers. So not a very relevant -- not so relevant there. And in terms of the COVID loans, this is probably what will be the most relevant, and it's just beginning this week. It just began on Monday. And we have about CLP 300 billion in COVID loans.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

But we have to see how we did --

Pablo Mejia

Management

4,000 customers have taken those loans. But it's also very early to tell. What we should probably see is a rise in demand, because most banks have just recently, in just these few days, some just yesterday, have been providing offers to customers to take on these COVID loans.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

Those numbers, they appear low, right? Like when you compare to other countries, we are hitting like from 20% to 50% of the loans being renegotiated. Any reasons like for that number to be so low?

Pablo Mejia

Management

I'm not sure about the other banks, the number of renegotiations for the SME portfolio for us. We didn't have a significant demand despite that we were the first bank to offer these -- this benefit program to both, our individual banking customers and SMES. For us, if you take a look at our portfolio, we've always had a very high-quality loan book, that's very much associated to our high net worth individuals. So that could also have a benefit in terms of the level of the initial program that we offer to customers. In terms of renegotiations that we had and after and during the events of last year, we really didn't have a significant change in the level of renegotiations that we normally do. So it wasn't anything -- it wasn't any -- there wasn't an important change on the level of renegotiations we had prior to those events.

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

But it began this week. So --

Pablo Mejia

Management

Sorry?

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

I was just going to ask regarding delinquencies of those loans, like are they behaving well? Like how were those October, November, December loans that were renegotiated last year behaving? Like, on an asset quality standpoint, like are they doing well? Like, what can you tell us about that?

Pablo Mejia

Management

It's similar to the renegotiations that we've always had. And we really didn't change the policies for renegotiations during that time.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Neha Agarwala with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Neha Agarwala

Analyst

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. If I can follow-up again on the on the cost of risk, it seems like most of the increase in provision would come later in the year, in the second half. Should we expect the -- any spinoff in level of provision from COVID in 2021 or do you expect to cover most of it in 2022? Any indication on how much we can expect on a quarterly basis? Would there be a jump in the third or the fourth quarter? That will be very helpful. And do you expect to use your voluntary provisions during this crisis or you still think that this is -- it's not required during the level of crisis at this point? My last question is on your digital platform, you will continue to invest in digital platform as you said, but what are the key areas of strength that you think you have lot of peers and any points where you would like to improve where the way you think your peers are doing a better job? That'd be really helpful. Thank you so much.

Pablo Mejia

Management

In terms of risk and if there's any spillover into 2021, I think it's important to mention that the entire banking industry was proactive and is being proactive and offering different types of benefits to their customers in terms of postponing loan payments. For us, we offered three months' postponements for consumer loans, mortgage loans, as well as turn refinancing for credit cards and certain preferential loans for our customers. And in terms of SMEs, many banks, including us offered six months' postponements on consumer loan installment, adjusting payment terms and durations. So, if we analyze that last figure and we look at the rule of the COVID loans, which under the COVID loans that we're providing customers, banks must apply, renegotiate all the other loans of the customers as well when they take these COVID loans. So, what does that mean? It means that in November -- around November, October, customers will begin paying and not when banks will know for many customers if they'll be able to continue paying. So, we should have more information by the end of the year, but I think it's highly likely that there should be a spillover in 2021 because we'll just be recently in October, November, December having more information on the commercial portfolio. And other banks have offered up to six months' postponements on the retail book. So, they'll have more information in terms of the retail book also at the end of the year. So, the 90-day pass just be entering in the beginning of 2021. The second -- and the second question, sorry, was additional provision?

Neha Agarwala

Analyst

Yes. Any voluntary additional provisions that you have?

Pablo Mejia

Management

The additional and voluntary provisions one of the banks has been the most conservative in terms of our risk policies and growing responsibly and provisioning which we consider appropriate for the level of risk that we've had. Three examples of how this proves that our coverage ratios were appropriate was when we implemented different standard models in Chile, where for us the impact of these standard models was minimal versus other banks, which was much more important. In terms of specifically provisioning additional provisions, obviously, this is something that you can't rule out for any bank and the industry and it's something--

Rodrigo Aravena

Management

Basically, we can rule out that possibility in the future, but it has to be decided by the Board of Directors. But it's important to keep in mind that we are more conservative in that area. So, given the uncertainty that we have in terms of the future evolution of the economy, we can't rule out that possibility.

Pablo Mejia

Management

And in terms of digital banking, what are strength there? I think the most relevant strength that Banco de Chile has is that our customers use our bank as their primary bank. We have the highest top of mind, highest Net Promoter Scores, and the best customer service with our customers. Despite that we've worked diligently in order to improve all the digital banking solutions and we think we have a very good platform today. What we're working on, and it would be obviously the area that is something that we would like to complete this year is the new solution for onboarding, which is obviously something that is very attractive in order to bring customers into the bank at a quick delivery times and also improving the whole process of consumer loan origination process. So, with those two areas, I think we'd have a well-rounded digital solution for our banks which we want to offer to all of our banking customers. We don't want to have a separate bank. We want to give all these solutions to all of our customers in Banco de Chile under the brand of Banco de Chile.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Alonso Garcia with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Alonso Garcia

Analyst

Hello everyone. Thank you for taking my question. My question is on the NIM. I was wondering if you could share some color on the NIM performance you expect for the remainder of the year considering your expectation of 2.5% inflation this year, rates at 50 basis points, and the implications of relief programs at individuals on financing support to SMEs? Thank you.

Pablo Mejia

Management

I think that you mentioned there's a lot of pressures from them in 2020. We have flattish variation of the U.S. which affect NIM. But also, there's other impacts that we mentioned in the call and then learning, which is the two changes in regulation -- the one change in regulation on how customers now have their overdraft lines automatically repaid which affects both funding in terms of deposits and also the loans outstanding average balances. Also, we have impact of the renegotiate -- or the refinancing of mortgage loans, which was an important impact for us. And we're in an environment of very low interest rates. So, the low overnight rate is also having an impact. If you recall last year, we already had reductions. So, that's pricing pressure in terms of the NIM. As well, you have to take into consideration that we have the COVID loans, which there'll be a change in mix for us in the industry. So, that should also have an effect. But that will also have a positive driver in terms of net interest income. We don't expect to have a bottom-line, which is positively affected that should probably be zero impact, because the interest rates are low, but -- and there's cost involved when originating these loans. But we should expect to see some pressure in terms of NIM for next year. So, net-net, the level of NIM that we recorded on how we calculate NIM was around 4.5% -- 4.05%, 4.1% this quarter with a high level of inflation of around 1%, which annualizes closer to 4%. And last year, we ended the quarter -- the year at 4.17%. So, it's reasonable to expect a decrease in terms of NIM that we recorded this first quarter of the year. I guess what could change is -- and drive that figure up or down is inflation. To-date 100 basis point change of inflation is somewhere around 16, 17 basis points of NIM.

Alonso Garcia

Analyst

Understood. Thank you very much.

Pablo Mejia

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Banco de Chile for any closing remarks.

Pablo Mejia

Management

Thank you for participating in our call. Stay safe and we look forward to speaking with you in the second quarter 2020 results.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a nice day.