Earnings Labs

BCE Inc. (BCE)

Q2 2007 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 1, 2007

$23.24

-1.11%

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Transcript

Bernard le Duc - Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Management

any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. And I'll just note that I am making these cautionary statements on behalf of each speaker whose remarks today will contain forward-looking statements. So with that behind us, I would like to hand the call over to Michael Sabia.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks Bernard, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. For a number of reasons this was a very important quarter for the Company. First, and I guess pretty obviously, because of the Go Private transaction that we worked on throughout the quarter; and I'll come back with that in a minute. But second, also in terms of our ongoing operations. Where... I think at the outset of the quarter, we've set, really, two key priorities. First, to meaningfully accelerate our wireless sales given the performance that we've had in the previous two quarters. And second on the wireline side of the business, a couple of points, first to continue making some very real progress on stabilizing the legacy side of the business and then also... consistent with wireless... accelerating the profitable growth of some of our growth engines on the wireline side of business. And I think on both wireless and on the wireline side, I think we made some pretty good progress in the quarter. On wireless, I think we are now beginning to see some real evidence of renewed track into the market. Our gross adds, as you've seen were up by 6%, I think a reasonably strong performance on gross adds in the quarter. On net, the 63,000 certainly far, far better than Q1 but still behind Q2 of last year, that largely due to an increase in churn that we need to address and continue to work on. But overall on those scores, it's fair to say very pleased to see this progress. And I guess the point I would like to emphasize is that we will certainly be looking for even more of that as the momentum in our wireless business builds in the second half. So, I'll just mention, on ARPU, as you…

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

Great. Thanks Michael. Good morning everyone. I am on... turn to slide 7, the wireless financials to begin. As Michael mentioned, we are beginning to gain financial tracks on the wireless business. The reported EBITDA of approximately... growth of approximately 50% was supported by revenue flow through to our EBITDA of over 69%. So, 69% of every dollar flow to the EBITDA line. And I have chatted, as you know, over time about getting that metric north of 60%. And that happened at a time where our gross adds were the highest that we had in the second quarter. And I'll comeback in a minute to the nets in a second. The improved flow-through though did result in a margin improvement of 2.5%. So, the margin on network revenue up to 43.6%, and simple cash flow grew 33% year-over-year in the quarter. So, again, the financials starting to move in the right direction, and the right metrics, and the right flow-through to EBITDA. You will note that our capital was down in the quarter but we expect, obviously, the capital will pickup in the second half of the year, as we continue to make the investment in the network. And I think, a particular note is that our drop call rate, where we had some issues last year, has dropped 28% year-over-year in the GTA from the type of investments we've been making. And this, combined with our significant EVDO Rev A investment, clearly now puts our network on par with any of our competitors and any of the markets. Turn to the wireless metrics. As we mentioned, our gross sales have began to pickup, and so starting to get in the right market share there. But certainly, some impact in terms of our churn was up, particularly postpaid up…

Siim A. Vanaselja - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thanks George, and good morning everyone. I'll start on page 15, with the overall type of a financial review. I'd say all-and-all that our results this quarter reflect steady improvement across the Company. We achieved a step-up in revenue growth from the first quarter, while maintaining solid EBITDA performance, margin improvement, and we increased earnings and cash flow. The revenue growth at Bell was 1.4% in the quarter, and I think this is a good directional progress over the first quarter, reflecting continued improvement in the wireline business where legacy losses are moderating. While wireless video, Internet and business revenues continue to add growth. In the quarter, data revenues were negatively impacted by a regulatory ruling relating to the wholesale pricing of basic service extension features that really required us to reduce revenues by $10 million, representing an amount that we have over-billed customer since 2002. But the entire amount of that $10 million charge was booked against revenue fully in the second quarter. Our focus on profitable revenue growth along with ongoing productivity measures help drive Bell's EBITDA growth of 3.2% and earnings growth largely in line with our expectations. At Bell Aliant, it's revenue growth reflects higher Internet sales and growth in IT Services which more than offset declining Local and Long Distance revenues. EBITDA at Bell Aliant was impacted by higher labor and IT fulfillment costs. Telesat also posted strong financial result this quarter with revenue growth at 34.2% and EBITDA growth of close to 33%, that growth includes a one-time sale of satellite capacity. In the quarter, it was marked by the start of commercial service on Anik F3 satellite, which took place on March 1st... sorry, May 1st, one month ahead of schedule. BCE's EPS before gains and restructuring costs was $0.56 this quarter that's…

Bernard le Duc - Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Management

Thanks Siim. So, we will all now move to Q&A. Michelle could you please remind people on the call of the procedure for placing a question. And then I would also ask people to please restrict themselves to one question or maybe a short follow-up, so that we can address everybody's questions on the call. Michelle? Question And Answer

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Greg MacDonald from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Greg MacDonald - National Bank Financial

Analyst · National Bank Financial. Please go ahead

Thanks. Good morning guys.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hi Greg.

Greg MacDonald - National Bank Financial

Analyst · National Bank Financial. Please go ahead

Hi. Quick question is on the access line counts. I know that you suggested win-backs are being pretty successful. If I look at the access line breakdown between business and consumer, and please tell me if my numbers are wrong, I am getting about a 160,000 decline on the consumer side and about a 50,000 gain on the business side. Two questions after that. Number one, on the win-backs; if they are improving, is the discrepancy mostly an increase in wireless substitution; can you explain the discrepancy as that or are there other trends at stake? And then secondly, on the business access line improvements, and I know those are actually better than last year, even... last year's second quarter, that is... is that evidence of what's going on in the enterprise side? Are you seeing more strength there or what's the main contributor to the business access lines strength? And I do have a quick follow-up. Thanks.

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

Okay. Thanks Greg let me try on both. Your residential NAS numbers are... it was 159,000. So you are basically correct. It is flat year-over-year in terms of our losses, which as you recall, our target was to be flat or down year-over-year and we are slightly down. Win-backs are growing simply, because obviously there is a base now that our competitors have, and we are able with the regulatory rules to enter that market more aggressively. And so clearly on the growth side, our competitors are still growing but we are starting to win-back as they know go through the dynamic of churn on their base. And clearly from our end, the reliability of our product being second to none, starts to provide us with the opportunity to win clients back. Long way to go still in this area, I think the other part though that we're really pleased with is to see the revenue decline, as you would certainly understand Greg, the 3.7% decline in revenue being below the decline, if you will, in absolute access line decline. So, clearly we're if there is such a thing as losing clients that aren't at the higher ARPU that is clearly what we are doing. On the business side it's really just across the board. In all of our business areas, we are seeing a little stronger results and also our disciplined approach, as we mention before, to the marketplace. And so that's really what we are seeing really across Bell West, SMB, and Enterprise both from an LD and from an overall access side. Lots of work there still to do but certainly, and as Michael mentioned, turnaround on the way from a financial perspective in our Enterprise business, and I think happening quicker then we would have anticipated.

Greg MacDonald - National Bank Financial

Analyst · National Bank Financial. Please go ahead

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks George. And on the wireless substitution side, is that a significantly growing issue or is that just kind of growing over time, not something you are seeing absolutely different than last year?

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

We haven't seen in massively different than last year, that would be the way I would answer, Greg, you haven't seen the acceleration in that. Clearly, though, when we get all the numbers and reconcile the number of our lines against with a cable, come up with... you probably can come to a... there will be a GAAP number there and we can probably start the account for some of that, obviously, is continually substitution.

Greg MacDonald - National Bank Financial

Analyst · National Bank Financial. Please go ahead

Okay. And my second quick question is, is it the intension of the buying group or do you know, to close this deal as soon as possible, i.e., if the regulatory approvals were given, let's say by the end of November, which is feasible, I don't know if it's probably but it's feasible. And assuming you have shareholder approval, is it possible you could close before first quarter '08 or is it definite that you will delay until first quarter '08, regardless?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Look Greg, I think... I don't want to speak for the Teachers' Group, but I think we all have a view, and I think it's just a view that any business person has, that getting on with these things and getting them done is almost always better than doing them more slowly. So, I think that logic applies here as well, and we will be certainly working as we complete these regulatory filings and get through a shareholder vote, we will be, you know, working very hard with Auto [ph] to secure the necessary approvals. And you know I would say, a bit as you have said, I would say that given the position that the Teachers' Group has taken with respect to the importance of growth that they have see in the business, the importance of capital investment, and taking the business forward, clearly Canadian nature of the transaction, that all of those things, which as you know are key elements of the discussion around the transaction and the regulatory approval of it, that I think given the very positive position that the Teachers' Group has taken, certainly we are optimistic of trying to move forward from... with the regulators in a tighter timeframe as we can. Now, I don't want to speculate as to whether or not that's November, December, January, February but I think everyone will be working very hard to try to get this accomplished and in place just as quickly as we can.

Greg MacDonald - National Bank Financial

Analyst · National Bank Financial. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks Michael. Thanks George.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Glen Campbell from Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Glen Campbell - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Yes, thanks very much. When you announced the transaction, you are quite emphatic about the criteria that you are using in not only the proceeds but also the certainty of financing of the... certainty of closing. Michael I wonder, could you give us a little bit more detail on that. Clearly the markets are very nervous, and that's reflected in the share price. Can you give us any detail or sort of comfort on those points, sort of beyond what's in the written agreement on the financing and sort of specific things that might cause risk in closing here?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well Glen, I guess... I guess, the right place to start is, we do regard this transaction for what it is, which is a fully financed transaction. And that point was reiterated very clearly. I think Claude... Claude Lamoureux did in recent days speaking on behalf of the Teachers' Group, they have a very high degree of confidence, we have a high degree of confidence as well. There is nothing that we see given the quality of the financing that is in place that causes us concern with respect to the ability to take get the transaction done.

Glen Campbell - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

And can you comment on financing package, if they locked in just the principal or is it the spread or a rate?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

I don't want to, Glen, I don't want to go to far here in terms of taking folks through the arrangement that the Teachers' Group has put in place. I think it's for them to decide whether they want to do that. But I would say that we... one of the factors in making the choice and the decision that was made at the very end of June, was the quality of the financing package and we do believe that is a very, very high quality financing package.

Glen Campbell - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay, thanks. I had a follow up on wireless for George, as well, if I might. The $3 ARPU that we saw year-over-year, you mentioned that data was sort of a big piece of the biggest piece, would it be safe to say it's almost all the increase or could you give us a little bit more color on how much data is contributing?

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

No it's not all the increase, Glen, some of it is... we've done some work, you remember last year on some of our access fee at the end of the year and some of that's flowing through as well. So, it would be those two items that are driving it, primarily. And we look forward on the data side do more and more opportunity, now, if you will that we've got a level playing field on the access to countries around the world with the BlackBerry and with EVDO Rev A having the fastest network at the same time. So, I think those are really important strategic things for us going forward; not things that we necessarily had behind us.

Glen Campbell - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Jeffrey Fan from UBS Securities. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Fan - UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS Securities. Please go ahead

Thanks very much and good morning. Question on wireless, George, when we look at the metric, certainly the gross adds appear to be improving, reflecting the chat on the distribution. But when we... as you said, churn is going up, and when we look at the lifetime value of the subscriber, it looks like it's down another quarter, and it looks like the decline of that value is accelerating. So, clearly a function of churn, so the question is, this is only the first full quarter of number portability, can you kind of talk a little bit about the... what made up the churn, was it all going to number portability or was some of the issues, and perhaps, how long you think you would take before the churn starts to improve?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Sure. The point on the churn, a couple of things there... you're right, it was the first quarter of LNP, that's some of it and we've got work there to do as well, but a part of it also is, as you may recall on the last quarter, we talked about. We had tightened our credit windows and clearly some of that continues to flow through and that's a lit bit of the change in the churn rate and that will flow through; also making sure that our retention offers are as competitive as they need to be. So, I'm fully confident that the lifetime value of that client will move back, and frankly, continue to improve over time. As we see the data services and the improvement we're seeing in ARPU take hold, and then we just do the aggressive work, we need to, to pull those churn numbers back in to more levels that we'd seen in the past. Also there is a little bit of some of the Federal government account... we talked about before... some of that in the quarter. So, little bit there. And then it's just block and tackle work to do.

Jeffrey Fan - UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS Securities. Please go ahead

Is the Federal government contract also through or is that there is still more to come...

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

No that's not what I said, some of it flow through, not all of it.

Jeffrey Fan - UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS Securities. Please go ahead

Some. Okay.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yes. But, so that is part of it too. Those are couple of the reasons and then just, we think the improvement in our network that we've done which is significant, actually really significant to GTA is going to start to pay some dividends for us as we move forward into the second half of the year.

Jeffrey Fan - UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS Securities. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. Then just one quick follow-up on the transaction. Do you have some more clarity on the timeline regarding the circular and also your Shareholder Meeting?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Jeff no, not definitive but all of that work is progressing very well. And you know we would expect to get that done and out and move on to a shareholder vote of the transaction as soon as we can in the fall. And we will have more to say on that, I think, in the coming weeks.

Jeffrey Fan - UBS Securities

Analyst · UBS Securities. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Dvai Ghose from Genuity Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Dvai Ghose - Genuity Capital Markets

Analyst · Genuity Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thanks very much. Good morning. Michael, one of the... as Glen pointed out... the market is kiddish about this LBO deal. I guess one of the contingent factors, is the Telesat deal closing, that was supposed to close in the mid-2007 period, we are sitting in August. Could you explain why it hasn't closed and if there is any risk to that deal?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yeah, a lot of work done on the regulatory approval side on Telesat. Honestly, the approval process has taken longer, obviously, than we had anticipated. Not really because of any issues associated with subs, it's just a kind of long grind on some of the process issues associated with this. And with some people movements, and changes in key positions of people who needed to be involved in the regulatory approval process. In Atoha [ph] a bunch of factors have come together to slow that thing down from what we had anticipated. So, there have been some... how would I describe, they are kind of exogenous things that have occurred, that has slowed things down. By and large we are very close to through that process, and we are working now to get wrapped up. So our hope to buy on that one is that that should happen in the very, very short period, very short next while.

Dvai Ghose - Genuity Capital Markets

Analyst · Genuity Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Okay. That's encouraging. Quick one for George, if I may. The 45,000 business line additions that in the quarter, what percent... what number was Shaw's wholesale lines, if any, and what is your exposure to Shaw? And, George, are you going to quantify the Federal government contract or you are not going to?

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

Second question, no. And on the first one, Dvai, we don't split it out, but you are right. The part of the contribution to the growth is the Shaw wholesale, which isn't at all significant for us on the revenue side. So you... and at some point that will go away from the business. I think the important thing for on the call is that our overall business portfolio be it NAS Long Distance or across our IP portfolio, we really beginning to see some stabilization there and some growth in our EBITDA in that business portfolio.

Dvai Ghose - Genuity Capital Markets

Analyst · Genuity Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thanks very much.

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

Thanks Dvai.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from John Henderson from Scotia Capital. Please go ahead.

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

Yes. Thank you. A question about the Telesat one-time capacity sales, could you comment on just how much that was in the quarter?

George Cope - President and Chief Operating Officer, Bell Canada

Management

Sure. Siim, you want to take that?

Siim A. Vanaselja - Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah I can, let me... it was obviously the majority of the 30% or so growth in revenues. Let me just see if I've got...

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

We are just kind of look it up for you, see if we can get it for you.

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

Okay, I might just ask a follow-up on IPTV and your surf-readiness; any timing updates on that and whether or not your reduction in CapEx is any indication of your readiness or timeframe interest in moving into that space?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, the reduction in CapEx isn't at all a part of that. Our willingness to move into the space hasn't really changed. In fact, we just continue to be more encouraged, with what's happening in the US in terms of what AT&T is talking and reporting in terms of their growth. And as we've said consistently, we are going to follow that curve in the US. And the timing and launch of that, quite frankly, people will know it when we launch it in the marketplace, but our capital hasn't been affected by that to-date in terms of that. We are though, I guess more and more encouraged by what's happening south of the border, and as we see the traction we want to see in the US on that, then obviously adding that to our video portfolio, what we already do, will be part of our strategy execution.

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

Could you say what percentage of access lines today might be capable of getting IPTV if you were to launch?

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

No, I wouldn't talk you through that today, that will only let our competitors know where we are going to launch.

Siim A. Vanaselja - Chief Financial Officer

Management

So, John, I have answer to your Telesat question. Of the $41 million higher year-over-year revenues at Telesat, $32 million was attributable to the recognition of the one-time sale of broadcasting satellite capacity.

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

And how much of that would flow through to EBITDA?

Siim A. Vanaselja - Chief Financial Officer

Management

At the Bell Canada level... this, by the way, was a lease arrangement. Sale of redundant satellite capacity to ExpressVu. So at the Bell Canada level, it would entirely eliminate. [Multiple Speakers].

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

I got it. Okay.

Siim A. Vanaselja - Chief Financial Officer

Management

You are right, that gets entirely eliminated.

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

You are right. Got it.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

But if you want the EBITDA flow-through at Telesat. We can... you can call back on that.

John Henderson - Scotia Capital

Analyst · Scotia Capital. Please go ahead

Sure. Thanks very much.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you

Operator

Operator

Okay. I think that was the last person in the queue. So unless there is any final remarks Michael.

Michael J. Sabia - President and Chief Executive Officer

Management

No. Just thanks for joining us. Again, some solid profit in the quarter, more to do in the second half, and we look forward to getting that done. And we'll look forward to making a lot of progress on getting Telesat wrapped, as we expect to do, and then moving on and getting this very important transaction that we've announced with the Teachers' Group to get it wrapped up as quickly as we can.

Bernard le Duc - Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations

Management

So, thank you everybody.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation. And have a great day.