James Muehlbauer
Analyst · David Strasser with Janney Montgomoery Scott
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start this morning by recapping our fourth quarter financial results, and by providing some additional color on our performance. Then I'll recap what we set out to accomplish in fiscal '11 and how we performed against those goals. We will close with our thoughts on how we currently see fiscal '12 playing out and the resulting financial guidance. As Bill noted up front, the numbers we will be discussing exclude the restructuring charges detailed in our release this morning. This morning, we announced adjusted fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.98, which was up 9% versus last year. As Brian mentioned up front, we are pleased to continue the theme of strong gross margin performance, driven primarily by strength in our key connectivity category, Best Buy Mobile, along with disciplined SG&A spending set against the consumer demand backdrop in our industry. Let's quickly run through some of the key headlines. First, in the fourth quarter, revenue declined 2%, driven by a comparable store sales decline of 4.6% and partially offset by new store growth. In our Domestic segment, fourth quarter revenues decreased almost 4% from last year to $12.1 billion, as comparable store sales declined 5.5%. While on the surface, this decline appears similar to what we experienced in the third quarter, the trend was actually modestly better when you look at the two-year comp and consider that domestic comparable store sales were up over 7% in the fourth quarter last year. The decline in comp store sales was driven primarily by a couple of factors. First, the industry continued to experience lower demand in key categories, including TVs and notebook computers. Second, we were up against a nearly 40% comparable store sales gain last year in mobile computing, largely due to the launch of Windows 7. Sales in our International segment increased approximately 4% to $4.1 billion, driven primarily by new store growth and the impact of favorable FX rates. These gains were partially offset by a comparable store sales decline of 1.3%. Our Best Buy Europe business experienced a low single-digit percent increase in comparable store sales for the quarter. Canada saw many of the same consumer demand industry headwinds that were experienced in the Domestic segment, which resulted in a similar low single-digit comparable store sales decline. In Five Star, we experienced a low single-digit comparable store sales decline as we began to lapse [ph] significant year-over-year strength. For context, our Five Star comparable store sales growth was over 35% during the fourth quarter of last fiscal year. For the full year, Five Star experienced a comparable store sales growth of 18% in fiscal '11. Turning now to gross margins, the highlight for the quarter was again the continued expansion of our gross profit rate. Total company gross profit rate of 24.4% reflected a 40-basis-point year-over-year improvement. The domestic gross profit rate was up 90 basis points to 24.5%. The 90-basis-point expansion can be attributed to overall flat rates and an improvement in mix due to continued growth in Best Buy Mobile and a lower mix of computing and entertainment hardware and software. Additionally, similar to the first three quarters of the year, gross margin rates improved slightly as a larger portion of our vendor programs were orientated towards purchase incentives instead of advertising support, which is recorded as a reduction in SG&A. Just as a reminder, this is the last quarter this reclassification will impact our year-over-year financial comparisons as we will anniversary this change in the first quarter of fiscal '12. Within the International segment, the gross profit rate of 24.2% reflects a 120-basis-point decline year-over-year, primarily driven by a higher mix of sales in the B2B channel in Europe, partially offset by strong margin improvements by both our Five Star and our teams in Canada. Turning to SG&A, fourth quarter expenses increased just 2% year-over-year to $2.7 billion. SG&A dollar growth was limited due to tight cost controls on variable spending items. In addition, similar to the third quarter, SG&A also benefited from lower incentive compensation expense tied to our overall financial results. Lower incentive costs favorably impacted our overall rate by 40 and 30 basis points in the fourth quarter and for the full year respectively. Bringing it all together, the net result is that the fourth quarter operating income decreased 4% versus last year to $1.2 billion or 7.5% of sales. Again, these results exclude the restructuring costs Bill referenced. I also wanted to touch on a couple of specific points related to how we closed out the year to help avoid any potential confusion. First, the year ended with higher-than-usual working capital, including inventory, accounts payable and accounts receivable. Each of these items included several timing-related events, so let's spend a minute and touch on each of the key drivers. As you saw in the release, total inventory was up 7.5% year-over-year compared to up 12% at the end of the third quarter. In Q4, growth from new stores and changes in foreign currency contributed approximately half of the inventory increase. Domestic comparable store inventory in Q4 was up 2% and reflected an improvement over the third quarter, which was up 8%. The growth in domestic inventory was principally in support of the continued strong sales growth in Best Buy Mobile. As the company reduced inventory receipts in January and February in response to holiday sales trends, total accounts payable declined as we paid for our existing inventory under our normal practices. Accordingly, accounts payable finished the year lower than last year due to timing changes in our inventory receipt patterns this year. And finally, we also saw an increase in the receivables at year-end, due to the timing of several large payments due from our vendors. A large portion of these payments have been received since our year-end. The combined impact of the above items increased our year-end working capital and lowered free cash flow. To be clear, our overall working capital and cash flow model has not changed significantly, as these items are timing in nature. We anticipate our working capital positions will return to more normalized levels in the first half of fiscal '12, which will benefit our year-over-year free cash flow generation. Second, our effective tax rate of 31.4% was lower than last year and our expectations, due primarily to the favorable resolution of several tax matters in the quarter and a higher proportion of our income from foreign operations, which is taxed at lower rates. We estimate that temporary reductions in our tax rate favorably impacted the fourth quarter and full year earnings by approximately $0.12 and $0.11 respectively. While there were certainly challenges that both Best Buy and the CE industry faced in fiscal '11, we also saw exciting growth opportunities in new connected technologies and achieved several important goals that we set out to accomplish during the year. We drove profitable sales growth in key parts of our business such as Best Buy Mobile by opening up over 100 new stand-alone stores, and saw continued growth in our profitable Five Star model in China. Domestic gross profit margins grew by 90 basis points for the year. This year-over-year gain shows that our connectivity strategy is gaining traction and demonstrates our ability to respond to market opportunities and grow margins even when some product categories are challenged, which we believe positions us well for the future. We announced restructuring plans for our International business, demonstrating our commitment to enhancing our profitability and returns. We exercised strong cost discipline in a tough environment, which limited SG&A dollar growth to 4.6% for the year. Setting aside the impact of the restructuring, this cost control, combined with our significant gross margin expansion, allowed us to grow operating income dollars 2% and operating income rate 10 basis points for the full year, despite a negative comp sales environment. And lastly, we repurchased approximately $1.2 billion or 33 million shares of our stock, which is over 8% of the previously outstanding shares of the company during fiscal '11. This was the second largest year of repurchase activity in the history of the company, and we continue to see share repurchases as one of the important elements of improving returns for our shareholders over time. Looking ahead to fiscal '12, we recognize that there continues to be many variables in the environment. It appears likely that macro influences such as unemployment, housing and higher gas prices may continue to pressure consumers. Strong companies and brands like Best Buy utilize times like these to play offense and leverage their position in the marketplace. We plan to pursue profitable growth opportunities by focusing on key connectivity categories like Best Buy Mobile, and exciting new technologies like tablets. As Mike discussed earlier, we are also planning to grow our Gaming and Appliance businesses in the year. Given these competing factors, our fiscal '12 plans reflect a range of potential outcomes, and are focused on making prudent investments in several profitable growth areas of our business, while maintaining disciplined cost control. Our fiscal 2012 guidance calls for top line revenue of $51 billion to $52.5 billion, which is an average of 1% to 4% growth year-over-year. Key assumptions behind this outlook include the new store plans we disclosed in late February, which call for approximately 150 new Best Buy Mobile standalone stores, U.S. big-box square footage growth of less than 1% and 40 to 50 new Five Star stores in China. Additionally, we anticipate that the inclusion of the 53rd week during the fiscal fourth quarter will add approximately 1.5% to 2% year-over-year to our top line revenue. Partially offsetting these gains is our comparable store sales estimate for the year of flat to down 3%, which reflects our current view of the range of potential outcomes in this environment. Looking at gross margins, we expect to grow gross margins next year but at a more modest rate than in fiscal '11. We anticipate a large portion of this growth will be driven by further progress in our connectable categories led by Best Buy Mobile. As I mentioned earlier, we made solid progress in focusing our discretionary SG&A spending in fiscal '11. We will be prudent in our SG&A investments, striking an important balance of pushing forward on profitable growth areas and managing our SG&A. Given planned investments to grow our Connections business, the addition of the 53rd week and the impact of lapping more incentive costs in fiscal '11, we anticipate that total SG&A dollar spending will grow approximately 4% for the year or approximately 2%, excluding the impact of higher incentive comp and the 53rd week. So rolling it all up, we anticipate that total operating income dollars will be flat to up 7%, as improvements in our gross margin rate mitigate potential softness in the comp sales environment. We also anticipate that the recently completed bond offering will add approximately $50 million to our full year net interest expense. Doing the math, this translates to approximately $0.08 of EPS for the year. Bringing it all together, we are forecasting annual non-GAAP EPS of $3.30 to $3.55 for fiscal 2012, which represents a 4% decrease to 4% increase year-over-year, excluding restructuring related charges. This adjusted EPS guidance also excludes the impact of any potential share repurchases in fiscal 2012. Taking a quick look at our fiscal '12 CapEx outlook, we expect to spend approximately $800 million, which would be slightly lower than our fiscal 2011 CapEx spend. With that as context for what we expect for the full year, let's shift gears and spend a minute on our phasing expectations for fiscal '12. First, we expect that our comparable store sales performance in the first half, especially in the first quarter, will be similar to the quarter we've just completed. Additionally, we anticipate that the second half sales will improve over the first half trends based on the actions already discussed by Brian and Mike earlier, including the initiatives in our Best Buy Mobile, Tablets, Gaming and Appliance businesses. And of course, we'll be up against much easier compares in the second half of the year. Regarding SG&A for the year, we anticipate higher growth in the second half of the year as incentive compensation returns to more normalized levels, and given the inclusion of the 53rd week in the fourth quarter. Given the phasing of our fiscal '11 actual results and the above assumptions, we do not anticipate that year-over-year EPS growth will grow until the second half of fiscal 2012. One last thought on our outlook. Currently, we are not aware of any significant impacts to our business as a result of the recent tragedy in Japan. We are in contact with our vendor partners and suppliers but recognize that it is still too early for them to assess what impact, if any, this may have on our business in fiscal '12. In closing, there were challenging elements that impacted the CE industry and Best Buy during fiscal '11. Consumers are clearly telling us that they are interested in capturing all the benefits of a connected lifestyle, but they are also selective about how and where they spend their discretionary dollars. We believe the strength of our multi-channel approach in serving customers; the ability to showcase all the latest and greatest technologies all in one place, coupled with our knowledgeable Blue Shirts who can help customers get the most out of their spending; continues to position our model attractively for customers, vendors and shareholders. Equally, we realize that we have many opportunities to improve our model, attract new customers and drive stronger performance in the near term and beyond. So with that, Alicia, we are ready for questions.