Earnings Labs

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 2, 2008

$59.06

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Best Buy's conference call for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Driscoll, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Thanks, Eric. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in our fourth quarter conference call. We have five speakers for you today. First up is Brad Anderson, our CEO and Vice Chairman; second is Brian Dunn, our President and Chief Operating Officer; third we have for you Shari Ballard, Executive Vice President of Retail Channel Management; fourth is Bob Willett, CEO of International and Chief Information Officer; and finally Jim Muehlbauer, Enterprise CFO Interim, followed by a short wrap-up again from Brad. And we are extending our call by an extra 15 minutes, given the number of things that we need to cover and we want to have a half hour of Q&A at the end. As usual, we also have a broad management group here with me to answer your questions following our formal remarks. We would like to request that our callers limit themselves to a single one-part question so that we can include more people in our Q&A session. Consistent with our approach on prior calls, we will move to the end of the queue those who asked a question on last quarter’s call because we don’t always get to everyone. I’d like to remind you that comments made by me or by others representing Best Buy may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our SEC filings contain additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ from management’s expectations. As usual, the media are participating in this call in a listen-only mode. And with that, I’ll turn our call over to Brad Anderson who will begin our remarks.

Bradbury H. Anderson

Management

Thanks very much. Well, to start off this morning, we’re going to have a pretty detailed discussion about this past year and how we’ve put together the budget for this upcoming year and what our expectations are. I just wanted to comment very quickly before we launch into that, that the company over the years has had a number of times in which it’s faced a very difficult economic climate and this is a -- or a difficult climate within the particular industry we are in and this is one of those times where the environment is very challenging. What we would like you to do is listen very carefully to how we are responding to that challenge. One of the concerns we’ve heard expressed this morning from some analysts is that we are too optimistic in terms of the way we view the future. We are going to try and tackle that issue head on. The fundamental thing this enterprise looks at in times of challenge is what are the strengths it brings to the market and what’s the capability of that and how well prepared it is to compete in a marketplace that’s more difficult. And I think you are going to hear from us while we see the climate as serious and very difficult, we have an enormous amount of confidence in the skills and talent of the people we’ve got and the approach of customer-centric -- finding customer-centric value propositions to influence our results in a way that would be more positive than you would expect otherwise. And so we are going to share that argument with you and share with you the premises from which we are approaching this budget. So with that, I would like to turn it over to Brian to get us launched into the specifics.

Brian J. Dunn

Management

Thanks, Brad. I want to highlight four themes that emerged from the year -- our employees, our customers, our financials, and our future growth, all of which give me great confidence in our future. First, our people -- last year was shaped by many variables but the one constant, and this goes for last year and every year before that, has been our people. I am extremely proud of our employees and I want to thank them and congratulate them for their accomplishments this past year. We are starting this year with a stronger employee base than ever. Our employee turnover was 60% this past year, which exceeded our expectations. Turnover improved eight percentage points and that marks a three-year trend of improvement, down from 81% in fiscal ’05. That’s a 26% improvement in three years. What’s more, the improvements in turnover were nationwide and at all levels. Our manager turnover alone improved nine points to 16% and the most encouraging aspect of this progress is that these results came from specific, locally created strategies. Store by store, district by district, they know their employees the best and are ultimately in the best position to create an environment that attracts and retain talent for their market. Our future growth is largely dependent on the relationships that our employees are creating with our customers. Couple that with the power of scale that comes with $40 billion in revenue, 140,000 people and 500 million customer visits annually and we see the opportunity for exponential benefits. As we start the new year, I take great confidence in the fact that we have a more experienced and engaged workforce because their insights and knowledge will help deliver growth. And so as we are in a challenging environment for a period, we must find ways…

Shari L. Ballard

Management

Thanks, Brian. Earlier today, you saw our earnings guidance for next year and some were asking if we are too aggressive in setting our comp guidance in the 1% to 3% range. I’m going to spend my time with you today going my absolute best to answer the question and to tell you why I believe the answer is no, we absolutely did not set our guidance too high. Here’s why; when we did the work of determining how much we felt the U.S. business could grow next year, we did it this way -- first, from a centralized perspective, we looked at external factors, including the macroeconomic environment, product life cycles the competitive landscape, those kind of factors, and formed part of our plan, definitely. Second though, we went to our local teams, including every territory in the U.S., and asked them to identify growth opportunities they could see from their vantage point. We added the local component because we wanted to test the hypothesis that there is an enormous amount of opportunity to grow that would only be visible to somebody living in the same community as the customer. These are the kinds of things you’d never be able to see from a centralized or in our case, a Minneapolis based vantage point. The bumpers we gave the local teams as they built their plans from growth were: A, that all stores had to grow; B, they had to base that growth on specific identified customer need; C, that every employee gets to and must participate in growing our company; and D, the teams needed to have concrete plans for how they would achieve the growth. We spent the first two weeks in March visiting the teams in all eight U.S. territories to hear them present their plans…

Robert A. Willett

Management

Thanks, Shari. Good morning, everyone. I too would like to congratulate and thank all of our folk everywhere for their boundless energy and commitment on behalf of our customers and some good results under some interesting conditions. Shari talked very eloquently about customer centricity and the important role of our employees. People truly are the secret source. They are the glue. Their behavior and their culture is what will sustain us. As someone who has worked internationally perhaps longer than I wish to recall, and with some of the finest retailers globally, I believe there is really no other retailer in the world who is trying to accomplish customer centricity the Best Buy way. There are very successful retailers out there that segment customer information and those that have systems capable of tailoring both assortments and pricing based on locality demand. But what is different about our approach is the empowerment of our employees who are the sustaining glue to provisioning this individual customer experience. Frankly, one reason we’ve outperformed our industry is because of customer centricity. We’ve wallowed in it at times but we are a better company even for attempting it. This strategy is the whole reason we believe we have any business expanding internationally. Finally, I want to amplify Shari’s point, in that we are going to keep pursuing customer centricity. We need to keep it simple and that applies to the infrastructure and operating model as well as we endeavor to change how retailing is done in the connected world. Now I would like to take you through our priorities for the international segment for fiscal 2009, plus another review of our enablers, including supply chain and information technology and then I’ll turn it over to Jim for our financial discussion. Our international segment’s performance was…

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone. This morning my comments will focus on three areas in order to provide context for our current results, as well as the framing for our future performance expectations. First, I will review the drivers of our performance in the fourth quarter; second, I will spend a few minutes summarizing the key financial highlights for the year. Finally, we’ll discuss the outlook for fiscal 2009. The operating results we reported this morning were generally in line with our mid February update. Diluted earnings per share was slightly higher than our revised outlook but that was driven by below-the-line items, including a better than expected tax rate. Looking back, our business held up pretty well in Q3 and early Q4, despite the increasing pressures on the consumer. In Q4, however, we clearly experienced a decelerating trend from December and early January when results were still in line with our expectations. From there, traffic slowed, which was the basis for our lowered outlook for the fourth quarter. Although it was a tougher environment than we originally expected, we still posted solid results and grew our earnings per share 10% in the quarter. When you take out the noise from last year’s quarter, things like gift card breakage, the [Gulf Galaxy] gain, and the addition of the 53rd week, we grew EPS by roughly 17% in the quarter. Walking down the income statement, revenue of 4%, or 9% adjusting for the extra week, was the story of the quarter. Domestically, comparable store sales declined 0.9% as traffic weakness in the final six weeks more than offset earlier sales growth. Inventory shortages in gaming hardware exacerbated the slowdown, but we’ve seen gaming inventory improve since then. The macroeconomic pressures on the consumer are impacting traffic in most of our major…

Bradbury H. Anderson

Management

Thanks, Jim and before we go to questions, I just want to restate the central premise that we are using as an enterprise. The first part of that premise is that we are in the early stages of building out a connected world, that Best Buy today is the leading retailer in the world in delivering to our customers the benefit of that connected world and most of the benefits are yet in front of us. More significantly I think for that, the fundamental rationale the company is using is that it is using -- it has won so far we believe because our employees have done a better job in the marketplace than our competitors at delivering the appropriate value proposition for our customers at a compelling pace. What we are levering is the very tools that we are selling into the marketplace to deliver the connected world also allows us to run the company in a way that is different from the way retailers have been run over the years, and that combination of the talented workforce with better tools than have existed before is what we believe will allow us on a global basis to provide absolutely unique benefits to customers around the world and again, we believe this is at the early stages. So as we are confronting a difficult climate, we also see that climate as an opportunity-rich climate for us to differentiate that skill set and deliver it in more places with more depth than any other retailer in the world can do. And with that, we’ll open it up for questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thanks a lot. Good morning. I would ask you how you are doing but I think I would use my one part of my one question, so --

Unidentified Participant

Analyst

But you kind of did, didn’t you?

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Not quite. My question relates to gross margin and specifically your comments in your press release about tools to pull back to some degree on promotions. Could you discuss what you have in mind there and how big a part of your gross margin forecast that really is?

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

That question will be answered by Mike Vitelli.

Mike Vitelli

Analyst

Good morning. I would characterize the comment as not so much as pulling back on our promotions but a more effective use of our promotions. In working with our marketing colleagues, it’s a matter of addressing our customers in a more direct basis, whether that be through our Reward Zone program and how we utilize the various marketing tools and reaching our customers during the course of the year. I think you have seen and will see that we are continually aggressive in our promotions, whether they be financing, how we deliver products and pricing to our consumers but it’s a matter of a more effective use of that. And equally important is we are seeing some very solid success in how we are dealing with our end-of-life products as we make transitions. That was an important thing for us to improve in fiscal year ’08 and we even see a better runway of doing that in fiscal year ’09 as we find better outlets, including the Best Buy outlet on our website, to deal with products as they get to their end of life. So we think that effective use of promotions is what’s going to give us a margin improvement.

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Are you saying in a sense that you will be less kind of mass market shotgun approach and more targeted than you’ve been?

Mike Vitelli

Analyst

I would say directionally, that’s correct. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to at all step back from our position as being the best value in the marketplace.

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

And just finally, is this decision a reflection of anything that you’ve seen in the environment about the way your competitors are promoting and your need to be as prominent with that kind of message?

Mike Vitelli

Analyst

I think it’s more of a reflection of our success with our best customers and realizing that those customers are loyal to us, our Reward Zone members continue to grow, our Reward Zone MasterCard members continue to grow and being able to communicate with them directly is more effective in addition to what we do on a mass scale.

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thanks so much.

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

I would also add to that -- this is a benefit that we’ve also seen in the Q3 of this year and Q4 of this year as well, so really what we are doing is we are leveraging some of the capabilities and the insights that our store teams have taught us and that the data from our Reward Zone program has helped educate us on where consumers are really looking for help and our support in providing some of those promotional strategies. So we are going to see a full year benefit of that next year but it’s really based on the momentum of the things we learned in this year.

Matthew Fassler - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thanks so much.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Danielle Fox with Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Danielle Fox - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. I understand that you have a bottoms-up forecast but it sounds like you’ve mandated positive comps at the store level and what I’m wondering is how many of your store managers have actually been through a recession or a sharp slowdown? And connected to that, could you talk about what element of your forecast you do feel reflect conservatism about the current spending environment? In other words, how would your forecast be different if the economy were not weak?

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Why don’t you start that off, Jim, and the Shari will chime in.

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

Thank you. So maybe I’ll talk about the spending environment and then we could talk a little bit about the comp sales. So from a spending standpoint, one of the things that we mentioned up-front, Danielle, is just because we think we are moving into a little more difficult headwind from an economic standpoint, we’ve really made a determination that we are going to continue to invest in our growth drivers for the future. So if the environment were more robust in the next year, we may actually look at increasing some of that spending. But what we are doing most thoughtfully is we are making sure that we have the adequate bandwidth from a capital and from a human deployment standpoint around our key initiatives. So we feel really good about the things we are going to focus on next year and having the ability to get focused and execute on those. From a comp sales perspective, as Shari mentioned we have comp performance in our stores that ranges all over the board. We have stores that perform very, very well, that is in one part based on how those store employees and teams are meeting customer needs. But we also recognize there are certain parts of the country where the economic pressures are a little bit more difficult on the consumer. I think the core message that you are hearing from us today, however, is that it doesn’t matter what part of the country you are in, how your part of the country is being impacted by the economy -- each of our store teams has identified opportunities to serve customers better in their local markets and that we know we have opportunities to increase our existing share of wallet, recognizing that the total share of wallet for consumers next year in the CE space may be more challenged, as we know it is a discretionary item. So we’re not limiting our growth expectations just based on our traditional market share or the product comps that we see in front of us. We are really looking at going those -- looking at going after those unmet needs because we listen to customers and our store teams are telling us that we are not meeting the needs of our customers from a technology standpoint and there is much more that they want to do. We just have to unlock the secrets as to how to get that accomplished with them and grow our share of wallet for next year.

Shari L. Ballard

Management

Did that get your question or do you want me to put a little more color commentary to it for you?

Danielle Fox - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Yeah, actually maybe if you could just talk a little bit about the experience level of some of the store managers who are being asked to forecast in what is admittedly a very unpredictable environment. How comfortable are they coming up with a realistic range of forecasts in such an unpredictable environment, whether or not a significant number of them have actually managed through a similar type of environment?

Shari L. Ballard

Management

Thank you for that. I’ll be happy to do that and actually, there are a number of them on the phone who would probably be better equipped to tell you their own story than I am, but to the point about every store having to grow, that is true. We believe strongly that we’ve got to set the message out there that we’ve got to grow the company and in truth, that’s actually not the hardest part of the job right now because the store managers know we have to grow. They know we have to grow. They know they’ve got employees that are working in those stores who need to be working for a company that does so well at serving its customers that it’s a healthy company that’s here for the long haul. So that’s not actually the hardest part of it. But what we did need to do is make sure that the district territory and store teams have the tools that they need to actually be able to look at things like what kind of traffic do they have coming in their stores today, how effectively are they selling to the people that are in the stores today, what do their close rates look like, what’s their customer SAT information look like? What segments do they have coming in their stores? What kind of market share do they have with those segments? So trying to get those teams the right tools, and this is part of the investments we’ve made over the last few years, so that they can actually look at their business, use the tools to figure out this is where scale actually helps us. If you move these indicators just a little bit, it’s worth a lot. And so to be -- and…

Danielle Fox - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you very much.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mitch Kaiser with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Mitchell Kaiser - Piper Jaffray

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for the comments on the planning process. That was very helpful. I think one of the biggest concerns on the stock continues to be the TV category. I was hoping you could comment on your outlook for TVs with regard to demand and impact on margins, especially given -- my assumption is that mix is going to hurt you a little bit because you exited tube and projection in the first half of, or towards the back half of last year. And then there is also a lot of talk about Sony launching this stripped down version, so if you could highlight those comments, I think it would be helpful.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

We will. I’ll direct that one to Mike Vitelli.

Mike Vitelli

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

So a couple of things; to talk about the industry, I think we agree with the industry consensus that the television industry will grow a little bit slower in ’09 than it did in ’08, and that’s built into our plan. Flat-panel is continuing to grow in double-digits and we see that in our plan as well, and to your point the tube -- the tube business is almost gone, both in the industry and with us. We were a little bit ahead of it and I think we’ll, in a positive way, start lapping out of compares of huge declines in tube relatively soon. As far as your question is about -- so that kind of addresses the demand issue and we think we are going to be able to increase our share across the board and we believe that for several reasons. One is we have the broadest assortment in the industry, bar none. That goes from the entry level product that you described that tier one manufacturers are making available across the board but equally important in some of the entry level brands that some of the mass and club channels carry where we have our private label brand that addresses that customer need better than some of those brands do. Plus we go all the way up to the specialty brands that some of the independents carry, and we have those in our Magnolia home theater space. So literally, we can address every customer need in the TV space from your basic entry level TV up to the best television in the industry. And we think that yes, while the industry growth rate is going to be different from last year, our growth rate will exceed that because of the breadth of what we have in our store. But more importantly is we, better than anyone else, have the blue shirts there that can help our consumers through that incredible and increasingly complex world of watching a television show and can get them what they need. In fact, I am thrilled to tell you that that home theater team, both in all of our stores and here at headquarters, this year increased their share and increased their margin rate. I don’t know if there is anybody else in the industry that can say that.

Barry Judge

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Not to mention the last piece of that is the ability to install the TVs in the home and then we increasingly after the sale, we are there with you throughout the life of the TV, so if things go wrong with the TV, you want to upgrade the picture on the TV, you want to put a DVD player, et cetera in there, so post sale support becomes a much more important element as time goes on, as people try to get a little bit more out of their television experience. So I think that gives us a real different place in the marketplace than really anyone else can do.

Mike Vitelli

Analyst · Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

That was a big part of what the increase in margins were in the home theater experience overall too, is part of that, the install and other services.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Good point, Barry. Thank you and thanks, Mike. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Berman with Berman Capital. Please go ahead.

Steve Kernkraft - Berman Capital

Analyst · Berman Capital. Please go ahead.

It’s Steve [Kernkraft] for David. We just had a quick question as it relates to your capital structure where you still have $2.5 billion left on your share repurchase program and looking at your payout ratio and your dividends is about a 15% payout ratio, so I just wanted to know what your thoughts are about continuing to do a share repurchase, or raising the dividend above the level that it’s at now.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

We’ll start that one with Jim and then turn to Ryan.

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

Thank you very much for the question, Steve. I think as I talked about our capital structure, I would just like to reiterate that we really look at all the options we have in the marketplace to increase shareholder value, but the ones we are most excited about funding first are those that are within our core business, which is why you’ve seen us continue to invest in some of the infrastructure investments both domestically and more so going forward in our international space that really allow us to leverage those benefits for the customer and build that back-end that our store teams can support on. So as we think about our capital structure, the first thing we do is we make sure that we are allocating sufficient capital to continue the long-term growth of the enterprise. The second lens we look through is we think about what type of capabilities that may reside outside of our local legal system, to look for investments of people who can bring different thoughts and ideas into our portfolio and really help us build our growth strategy with their insights. So looking at acquisitions is also something that is beneficial we think for our capital structure and our strategy. And then lastly, we continue to think about shareholder initiatives, like share repurchases. Obviously we did a very dramatic increase in share repurchases this past year and dividends. I think our dividends were up roughly 17% year over year. So we still look at those as kind of arrows in our quiver, but the first things we look at are really the investments in our core business just on the long-term growth of Best Buy.

Steve Kernkraft - Berman Capital

Analyst · Berman Capital. Please go ahead.

But given from what you are saying, I mean, you look at yourself as a growth company but you certainly have enough capital to buy that growth either through acquisitions or investing in the mobile phone business. But above and beyond that, in terms of your choices between going to share repurchase and dividend, it seems like you are just opting to the share repurchase rather than raising the dividend above where it’s at now.

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

Yeah, actually it’s a fair question and it’s one that we talk about and review with our board on an annual basis and we are certainly open to considering the mix of that, but once again first and foremost, as we look at all of those investments in our capital structure, we know that the opportunities in the marketplace are going to change year from year, which is why some years I know we’ll invest more in our capital and in our core business. Some years we may lean more into acquisitions, just like last year we leaned more into share repurchases. It’s really going to be dependent upon what opportunities we see in the environment.

Steve Kernkraft - Berman Capital

Analyst · Berman Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay, but this payout ratio of 15%, you don’t see raising it from 15 to 25, 30% from current levels?

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

We have not forecasted any plans, as I’ve said.

Steve Kernkraft - Berman Capital

Analyst · Berman Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Binder with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Dan Binder - Jefferies & Co.: Good morning. I just wanted to focus a little bit more on Best Buy Mobile. I guess for starters, I think in your last analyst meeting, you talked about having 2% market share in that category. I was wondering if that’s roughly where you ended this year and where do you think you can take the market share in fiscal year ’09? And maybe as part of that, maybe describe to us in a little bit more detail why I would, as a customer, go to Best Buy for my mobile needs versus an operator store? If we could just start with that, that’d be great.

Brian J. Dunn

Management

I’m just going to frame it a bit and then we’ll ask Bob to get at a bit of it as well. The core thing I would ask everyone on the call to think about here and the way we think about it internally, Best Buy Mobile is a very vivid example of something that’s come directly from our customer centricity work. It’s a classic example of a very customer unfriendly experience going to buy a cellular phone essentially anywhere in America and going into a store -- that’s a very cumbersome experience. We saw a huge opportunity there, an unmet need for our customers. Our employees were very loud about it and we got some help from a partner to help us with it, and Bob’s going to talk about that in a second. But I ask you to think about our Best Buy Mobile work as a direct extension of customer insight married to employees saying we’re not serving our customers in a way that makes sense here. It’s a very vivid example of what Shari’s talking about.

Robert A. Willett

Management

Thanks, Brian. This is a part of our central theme to drive towards the connected world and the reason why we formed our partnership with Car Phone Warehouse is that they’ve been coming from the connected world with the phone and we’ve been coming from the connected world or to the connected world with a PC. The two of us together have hugely synergistic skills and all of it is around the customer experience which candidly, it varies from different parts of the world. And one of the things that we’ve been trying to do is to look for where is the best experience across the world and who has that capability and how do we partner with them to accelerate our strategy. And we started this work just over a year ago. We had some bumpy rides for the first few months but I’m delighted to say in the last four or five months, we’ve really seen huge growth and I mean huge growth in the 180 stores that we’ve converted. We’ve almost doubled our market share in literally a quarter. And we are starting to see growth. I get into trouble for talking about the numbers specifically but let’s just say we are absolutely over the moon with the progress that we are making on a comp basis. It’s not just in one store. It’s across 180 and the other comparison is that if you look at the stores that haven’t been converted, they were in a state of hold or decline. We’ve completely reversed that and also we are seeing improvements in the gross margin. But above all, we are also seeing a much, much better customer experience that actually, it’s a bit like the halo of Best Buy -- that that sort of work starts to, if you like, enhance the overall Best Buy brand. And so we see ourselves doing more of this, not just with Car Phone Warehouse but with also other partnerships. This is central to us looking for best capability out there and leveraging it to grow the strategy.

Barry Judge

Analyst

I just want to frame up a little bit. I think part of the question was what will the customer experience. Brian talked a little bit about the problem so what are we doing to help try to solve that need and as Bob mentioned, it had good results around it. I think the big pieces are there’s better choice, so 90 phones and nine plans depending on the market that we are in. No one else can do that. More knowledgeable sales associates in the store, a very significant training program around understanding customer need and understanding what phone would be right for people and what plan would be right, consistent with what Shari talked about in terms of the local opportunity. Straightforward pricing -- you know, pricing is very confusing out there and that’s one of the things people get upset about. And I think lastly, kind of consistent with a little bit of what Mike talked about within the home theater space, is that we -- and Brad mentioned with the connected world, sort of the convergence of hardware and software. And when you think about around the marketplace, there’s not many people that can bring both of those together. So think about smartphones and the complexity of smartphones. We have the hardware, we have the plans that I mentioned, plus we’ve got the Geek Squad that can help you figure out how to use that thing, can port data from one phone to another, et cetera. And that starts getting us that -- what we talked about earlier, the importance of post-sale support as we think about people trying to get more out of the stuff that they buy. Shari talks about in some of the conversations around -- people just want to be able to make the technology work and that’s what we are getting at -- getting more out of it and a little bit more out of it than you might have expected. Dan Binder - Jefferies & Co.: So just as a follow-up, any thoughts on where you could take the market share overall for the company in fiscal year ’09? With the 181 stores now up and running, are there any details you can share with us on the new models, investment requirements, operating margins and ROI versus the total company?

Barry Judge

Analyst

I can tell you our market share has grown since we’ve launched Best Buy Mobile. We’re growing at a faster pace than the industry. All of those details I don’t think we’re going to -- I don’t think we share and that’s [not my area]. Dan Binder - Jefferies & Co.: Okay, great. Thanks.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Thank you for not sharing that, Barry. Good answer on the customer experience and that was helpful, and earlier it was Bob and thank you all. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Wewer with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Dan Wewer - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Thank you. A question regarding the planning for our fiscal year 2009; does the outlook for a drop in profits during the first half of the year, is it more than offset during the second half of the year? Does that assume an improving macro environment or does it assume that these company specific initiatives begin to gain traction by the second half of the year? And then also a question regarding the plan -- if I were a store manager in a market such as Phoenix or Las Vegas and I thought I would be lucky for my same-store sales to drop only 5%, would Shari be asking me to come back with a new plan showing at least a 1% increase?

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Let’s start that with Jim and then move to Shari.

James L. Muehlbauer

Management

So specifically towards our guidance as to how earnings will phase during the year, there’s a couple of core assumptions that you hit on that I’ll reiterate. One is we think the back half is going to get better, based on number one is what we are doing internally to improve our results, so the initiatives that our store teams are going to take to grow with their customer. We know we are building traction as we speak and that traction will accelerate as we get towards the back half of the year. That’s one key element. The other element is we are making investments to launch many, many more Best Buy Mobile stores, as we mentioned on the call. Those initiatives will be up and running towards the back half of the year. The other thing that we are looking at is that we are counting on a little bit more of a stable macroeconomic environment. To what extent we are going to see that, I think it’s anybody’s guess at this point in time but we know given the strength of the product offerings we’ve put out there and businesses like computing where we’ve added an assortment of new vendors and our computing business continues to be strong. We believe that we have opportunities to continue to build share in those spaces. And then lastly, as Mike Vitelli mentioned, as we look at the television business, the broad range of assortment that we are going to have and the ramp up to the digital transition in 2009, we expect to see more impact of that in the back half of the year as well.

Shari L. Ballard

Management

Can I take the second part of the question --

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Absolutely.

Shari L. Ballard

Management

The second part of the question was if you’re a store manager in did you say Phoenix or Las Vegas?

Dan Wewer - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Let’s say any market that is seeing a significant housing problem or employment problem and they are talking to their neighbors and they are seeing more of their neighbors losing their job, will they still be required to show a 1% increase or better in their sales budget?

Shari L. Ballard

Management

It depends on what their hypothesis is. So we could use a specific example -- you used Phoenix and Vegas, which I think are -- that’s totally fine because that meets the criteria you’ve just said. I’ve actually talked to -- I’ve been to both of those markets. So it depends on what their rationale is for why they are saying what they are saying. So if, for example, they believe they can’t grow their store because -- fully of cannibalization, as an example, then yeah, I’m going to ask them what they’ve got available to them where they can -- what customers are they under serving today, how can we actually get at some of those customers, just like I mentioned earlier today. So if there are -- it depends on what their logic is. Am I going to come back to every single one of them depending on their argument and say universally, you must get to a one comp? No, that would be -- no, I would not do that. But what I am looking at is an orthodoxy and a mindset that says we have to grow this company we love. We have to grow store by store by store, which again is so not the hardest part of this job right now. The teams are there and they know that. It’s more about understanding all the things you’ve got available to you at a local level to actually grow your business and so depending on what the specifics were of what the store manager was saying, if they were saying Shari, I don’t think I’m going to grow my business for the next X number of months because I need to do these things to better understand my customer needs, to get back into the…

Dan Wewer - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Yes, it does, thanks. That was helpful.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

Bob, you wanted to add something?

Robert A. Willett

Management

The other thing to say is if you look at the business this year versus last year, our proposition across a number of fronts has dramatically improves, as has the experience. And I think the critical thing about what Shari was talking about and what they are trying to do is to move much more from a push model to a pull model, where we are providing tools, base management tools, tailored market assortment tools to understand the locality demand, and then giving much more empowerment to local GMs to make the difference. You know, 80% of all stores will be broadly the same the world over but the reality is the importance is that 20% and how you flex that 20% and whether you try to do that centrally or locally, and we’re setting out to do that locally, which is significantly different to what other people have tried to do. And I would not underestimate the power of that or what that can drive in terms of gross margin and comp sales.

Brian J. Dunn

Management

I would also add just to amplify Bob and Shari’s point, the remarks I made earlier about turnover and the reduction in turnover around our management levels in the stores and our fulltime level in the store in particular have really dramatically improved, so we have a more experienced, more engaged staff in place than we ever have that is not only ready for this but hungry for this kind of opportunity.

Jennifer Driscoll

Management

We have time for maybe one or two more questions, Operator.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Scot Ciccarelli - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

I guess my question is also back to the flat panel TV category. As that category continues to mature and customers become more familiar with the product and start buying second and third sets, which may be outside the primary living room or family room, would you expect that to start to have an impact on size and installation rates? And what would that mean for margins going forward in the category?

Mike Vitelli

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

That’s a great question. We’ve in fact factored that into our plan this year because we were a leader in getting the first flat panels into most homes in the United States. We think we are going to continue to be that leader of the first home for the many, many households that have yet to really get there, but also recognizing that those initial customers are coming back for their second and third TV. It’s a significant part of what our strategy has been in increasing small screen sizes. A dramatic increase, and you’ll see it this year, in our Insignia brand levels in the store for people that are going to come back for a value second level piece. So those mixes that you are describing are in our plan as we factored it in going into this year because we see the same thing. There’s multiple levels of people entering this marketplace at different points in time and we are perfectly positioned for everyone. I like Shari’s point of view of why not Best Buy in almost every case? I can’t think of a reason why anybody would want to buy a TV any place else, because whether it’s the best TV, it’s your first one, you are going to make a solid investment and you want to get everything, you want it to have the [inaudible] system, you want it to be great. Or it’s I just need another TV for the kid’s bedroom or wherever I’m going to put it, we have that entire range and we can take you through it and we’ve got the people to do it. You know, it’s kind of this -- we should have 100% share and we’ll work our way down from it. And I know that’s obviously unrealistic but we’ve built the plan in to do exactly what you are describing on all the range and all the mix in there already.

Scot Ciccarelli - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

I guess the question is do you start to see a significant reduction in the install rate as you move into the second and third sets in someone’s home?

Mike Vitelli

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Well, there is no question that smaller TVs are installed less than larger TVs, and that’s built into the factors, so if you -- we look at the -- we kind of look at the install rates as how people do it of above 36-inch and below. I think that’s the distinction. So we don’t expect, if you will, a very high attachment rate on smaller TVs because we know that’s not what our customers do. We’re prepared to do it, you know, people are doing that, but it’s not a natural act, so to speak. But above 37-inch, it’s a pretty high percentage that we are able to get people to have the televisions installed because that’s what they want to do. They want to hang them on the wall.

Barry Judge

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[inaudible]

Mike Vitelli

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

And large is huge.

Barry Judge

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

And that market is going to continue to grow.

Mike Vitelli

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Continue to grow -- in fact, it’s going to get bigger because as the cost per inch goes down, the size of the average $1,000 TV goes up and that’s good for installations.

Brian J. Dunn

Management

And Vitelli hasn’t gotten his yet, but he’s going to do that soon, so --

Carla Haugen

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you. That was Mike, Barry, and Brian, and thanks to our audience for participating in our fourth quarter earnings conference call. As a reminder, a replay will be available in the U.S. by dialing 800-405-2236 or 303-590-3000 international. The personal identification number is 11111346. The replay will be available from 11:00 a.m. Central Time today until noon Central Time next Wednesday, April 9th. You can also hear the replay on our website under “For Our Investors”. If you have additional questions, please call Jennifer Driscoll at 612-291-6110, Charles Marentette at 612-291-6184, or me, Carla Haugen, at 612-291-6146. Reporters on the other hand, please call Sue Bush at 612-291-6114, and that concludes our call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Best Buy fourth quarter fiscal year 2008 earnings conference call. ACT would like to thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.