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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 1, 2019

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Transcript

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Full Year 2018 Results Presentation. I’m Gloria Couceiro, Head of Investor Relations. And I’m honored to introduce you all to Onur Genç, Chief Executive Officer of the group. And as always, here with us today is Jaime Saenz de Tejada, BBVA Group CFO. Onur will begin with a presentation of group results and then Jaime will review the business areas. We will move straight to the live Q&A session after that. [Operator Instructions]. And now I will turn it over to Onur to start with the presentation. Onur Genç: Thank you, Gloria. Good morning, everyone. This is my first results presentation with all of you. So first of all, I would like to welcome you all. Thank you for joining in. Moving on to our fourth quarter 2018 results presentation. I’m on Page 3. In summary, despite some negative macro and currency movements in some of our core markets during the year, our diversified business model proved its resilience once again in this year, in our view, and we have posted very strong results in 2018. Three messages to highlight and they are all depicted here on this page. The one on the left-hand side, we recorded a net attributable profit of EUR 5.324 million in 2018, representing a 51% increase versus last year. As always, there were some nonrecurring items that have affected our 2017 and also 2018 financials, respectively. So if we exclude those nonrecurring items, and to be more specific, Telefónica impairments and China CNCB sale in 2017 and the impact from the sale of BBVA Chile in 2018, we recorded a 7% year-over-year increase on a more comparable basis. The good news is that despite the macro and the currency headwinds and despite the hyper-inflationary accounting standards now applied…

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with Spain in which strong remain – in which growth remains strong as we continue to grow above the euro zone, with an expected GDP growth rate of around 2.4% in 2019 and 2% for 2020. Net attributable profit in 2018 grew by over 10%, and this despite net trading income decreasing 16% on lower ALCO portfolio sales. The main P&L drivers continued to be core revenue growth, expense reductions and lower impairments and provisions. Core revenue grew by 1% year-on-year, thanks to an excellent fee performance, growing 7.7% and above our mid-single-digit guidance, coming mainly from asset management and retail banking services. Costs have gone down by an impressive 3.8%, much better than expected at the beginning of the year, thanks to the ongoing transformation efforts. Impairments decreased by 35% as asset quality metrics continue to improve. NPLs decreased by EUR 1.7 billion in 2018 and cost of risk stands at 21 basis points, also beating our below 30 basis points guidance. Provisions and other gains and losses are also down by over 20%, mainly explained by lower restructuring charges. Positive NII growth in the fourth quarter, up by 1.2% versus Q3; driven by a better loan mix and a slight increase in the arrival rates, especially in December. However, for the full year, NII is down, mainly explained by the lower contribution from the TLTRO, as the underlying business remained broadly stable. And this, despite having a worse-than-expected environment with subdued loan growth and interest rate hikes being postponed. Loans are almost flat versus last year. In retail, the deleverage in residential mortgages is fully offset by growth in the most profitable retail segments, consumer and very small businesses, while growth was subdued in the commercial…

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Onur. We are ready to move into the live Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]. So first question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Gloria. As a reminder, Q&A session starts now. [Operator Instructions]. And our first question comes from Alvaro Serrano of Morgan Stanley. Alvaro, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Alvaro Serrano

Analyst

Good morning. Two questions. First of all, in Turkey, you just mentioned the 300 basis points cost of risk guidance, but obviously there’s still a substantial Stage 2 portfolio. Can you give us a bit of sense how the visibility is improving in Turkey and when could we see sort of the cost of risk come down more substantially in there? Just your general thoughts. And the second question, the increase in your capital guidance. You’re going to 11 – between 11.5% and 12%. You’re almost there, so it doesn’t seem like a problem. But can you share with us the rationale for fixing the capital between target – between 11.5% and 12%? Why that level? And just to understand if we should expect that to go up again at some point in the future or not. Just interested in your thoughts. Thank you. Onur Genç: Thank you, Alvaro. I'll start, and Jaime, please, jump in with any additions. On the first one, the Turkey guidance on the cost of risk, less than 300 bps. We see all declines in that group of Stage 2 and also Stage 3. We feel comfortable with this less than 300 bps guidance. But it depends a lot on macro and it depends a bit on the currency as well. Because as you know, most of these loans that we have in those stages are foreign currency loans. So we will see and we will closely monitor. When is it going to go down and when can we give you a much lower guidance, we have to look into the market, basically. And our current guidance is less than 300. And depending on the micro, it might be even lower. We'll see it along the year. On the capital guidance, the rationale for 11.50% to 12%, yes, we might be reaching it. We expect to reach it, actually, by the end of the year. And so in your question, I presume that you are asking isn't – it's not too aggressive, so why that low? Actually, I mean, there are some regulatory developments that we are preparing ourselves for. So Trim impact will be coming in this year; IFRS 16 will be coming in this year; and there might be some other regulatory developments coming in. So we are putting a level that we feel comfortable that we will reach and we feel that's going to provide us clear comfort as we get towards 2022 and Basel IV and so on. Jaime, anything to add?

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

No, it's perfect.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Alvaro. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from José Abad of Goldman Sachs. José, your line is now open, please go ahead. José Abad: Hello, good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. My first question is on Turkey, a follow-up here. So you are guiding for less than 300 basis points, as you just said. But you finalized, actually, 2018 with 500 basis points, no? And I've been checking your forecast from your research team and you're forecasting GDP to slow down further from 3% in 2018 to 1% next year. On inflation, you're expecting inflation to go down from 20% in '18 to 16%. So I guess, here, we have a lower contribution from linkers going forward and you also have a higher cost of risk, but you are guiding for a lower cost of risk. So I guess, two questions. If you could first give us a bit of more granularity over how this cost of risk is going to evolve over the year. When do you expect this to peak and maybe at which level, so we can understand how to get to these 300 basis points, given that you finished 2018 at 500 basis points. And the other is also how you are going to do – what's going to be the combination between, actually, top line and provisions in order to prevent the bank from being loss-making next year? And a second question, if I may, on corporate governance. I believe you cannot make any comment on the investigation, on the Villarejo case. I only have one my question here, which is, given that – according to press news, I mean, you started this investigation last summer, so six months, seven months ago. What actions have the board taken to date in order to prevent similar…

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, José. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Vanessa Guy of JPMorgan. Vanessa, your line is now open.

Vanessa Guy

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. I have two questions. The first one is on the capital, and I was wondering if you could provide some guidance as to what the impacts will be from Trim, IFRS 16 and other regulatory developments? And the second one is more – it's more on the NII developing in Spain and how we should think about it going forward, especially in 2019. Thank you. Onur Genç: Okay. I'll take the capital. Jaime, why don't you take Spain. On the capital, again, two impacts, as you highlighted, Vanessa, are the ones that we're expecting for next year, 2019, Trim and IFRS 16. IFRS 16, our expectation as it stands now, is going to be around 12 bps. And for Trim, it's going to be – it's still a work in progress. I mean, our internal models are not as heavily used as some other peers or as other banks. So we expect a range of 20 – in that range of 20, maybe 25 in that, and we are still – it's an ongoing work that we are conducting. And we will see. But the total, let me be more specific, is going to be around 40 bps. On Spain, Jaime.

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

On Spain, the guidance that we're expecting for NII – for next year is for NII to remain flat. We're expecting activity to be more or less stable during the year. Good pickup in the last quarter gives us confidence. But still we expect some deleveraging in the mortgage portfolio and the public sector book, more than compensated by a good performance expected both in consumer and small and medium-sized companies, which are our area of focus. On the spread side, we should continue to see a slight spread improvement. The arrival rates were increasing during the last – especially during the month of December in the last quarter. That should feed into 2019 even if rate hikes are expected to be postponed. Some offset will come from lower contributions from the ALCO portfolio. You've seen that the size has reduced significantly in this fourth quarter, and that will affect negatively NII next year. Onur Genç: Vanessa, it's worth to mention that the – in the guidance that you see, we say margin improvement due to loan mix change. As Jaime said, our consumer book, although it's a small book, it has grown 22% in 2018, and we expect that trend to continue. So the loan mix is going to be moving towards more high-margin products.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Vanessa for your questions. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the Daragh Quinn of KBW. Daragh, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Daragh Quinn

Analyst

Hi, thanks for the presentation. I guess, on Turkey. Just given what you're seeing so far at the beginning of the year, can you give any more comfort or confidence or realized us, notwithstanding maybe the evolution of the loan-loss charge that you're absolutely confident to guarantee you won't need additional capital, or is it still a bit dependent on how the macro evolves next year? And then on Mexico, obviously you've given fairly clear guidance for 2019. But so I didn't catch in the presentation, just the explanation for the increase in provisions in Q4. And on capital for the group, the guidance you've given, I guess, given how confident you were that 11% was the right number. Now you've raised that up towards 12%. You flagged some regulatory impacts, obviously. But how much confidence can we have that for 2020 or 2021 that that capital level won't need to go higher? And are you concerned – despite the fact that over the last, say, two years, you've generated more than EUR 9 billion in profits, but CET1 ratio has only increased by only 35 bps. So are you concerned that the level of capital generation is relatively low? Thanks. Onur Genç: Thank you, Daragh. On Turkey, regarding the next quarters and the evolution for 2019, I would once again reiterate the fact that in the fourth quarter, we have taken two major impacts, two major numbers in the provision numbers for Turkey. The first one was a macro adjustment, as you know, IFRS 9. We look into the macro and we are prudent in those calculations, and we have taken a very high figure in the provisions for the macro adjustment. Plus – and even more importantly – so 40% was more on macro; the other 60% was…

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Daragh. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Stefan Nedialkov of Citigroup. Stefan, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Stefan Nedialkov

Analyst

It's Stefan from the Citibanks team. I've got a couple of questions. And Onur, welcome to BBVA. My first question is on Mexico. I'm still not clear on this calibration of the models. Would love to know more about the nature of it. IFRS 9 is supposed to be forward-looking. I'm assuming this has to do with how the loan book is shifting more towards consumer. If you can just confirm that rather than, say, looking backward and calibrating historical parameters that might be feeding into your models. The second question is actually on Mexico as well. Looking at the spreads. Customers spreads were down in the quarter by around four basis points and it looks like your deposit funding costs are going up quicker than you can reprice your loans, even though you are doing more consumer lending, that is supposed to have a high yield. Could you just elaborate a little bit on the level of risk you might be taking in your Mexican loan book going forward versus the competitive environment? So yes, that will be on Mexico. And just one last thing, if I may. I'm not sure if you mentioned any guidance on the U.S. business. If you have, if you could please repeat it, that would be great. Thank you. Onur Genç: Very good. Thank you, Stefan. On Mexico, as you have indicated clearly, IFRS 9 is forward-looking, but what I was trying to say was we were looking at the vintages of 2017. And when the vintages are observed, we were taking a forward-looking perspective in the calibration looking at the vintages. So obviously, it's not past-looking, but you use the data of the past to have a perspective on the future. When we looked into the 2017 vintages, in the first half…

Jaime Saenz de Tejada Pulido

Analyst

Yes, the main impact in the fourth quarter has been mainly a mix effect, okay? Because on the peso – on the peso spread, it's true that it went down by 4 basis points, but the U.S. dollar customer spread went up by 17 basis points. So it's been mainly a question of increased exposure in U.S. dollar what has affected the blended effect. Onur Genç: Mix effect.

Jaime Saenz de Tejada Pulido

Analyst

Yes. We have quite strong performance even in the fourth quarter. Onur Genç: And then the third question on the guidance for the U.S. Basically, on activity, mid-single-digit loan growth, with some bias towards consumer loans. As you might have seen in the numbers, we have grown in the consumer book 28% last year, maybe not this high, but still there will be some more bias towards consumer loans and mid-single-digit overall loan growth. In terms of P&L, net interest income, it's going to be the key driver of the bottom line. High single-digit growth in the net interest income. And asset quality, it has been exceptional in the past few years. We will expect it to normalize in the next year. So cost of risk around 60 bps, mainly because of the mix change again, because we are moving very – we are moving into the consumer and credit card portfolios in the U.S. Those are the books that we haven't grown in the past, but in the past 1 year and 1.5 years, we have grown in those areas, and we are going to see some impact in cost of risk.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Stefan. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ignacio Ulargui from Deutsche Bank. Ignacio, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just have two questions on the – the first one comes from fee income in Mexico, how do we see that evolving in 2019 and whether – could you update us in the discussions that you're having with the regulators and with the government on the topic? And the other one is, if we look to South America contribution in euro terms in this quarter, could we take that as the sort of like recurrent level for 2019 going forward? Or there should be additional adjustments to make due to the hyperinflation or depending on the hyperinflation performance of Argentina? Onur Genç: Very good. Thank you, Ignacio. On the fee income in Mexico, as you know – I mean, the – our fee income generation has been robust in the past few years. And if you're asking about the fee proposal that is on the table now, I mean, the proposal to limit the banking fees in Mexico, as far as we see, it’s open to changes. And we expect the final regulatory outcome to serve the needs of Mexico. I mean, Mexico is a market, where the bankerization levels as compared to other markets is relatively low. We expect the new legislation and proposal to help serve the needs of Mexico and to increase the bankerization levels in the country. And as we have seen lately, the banking sector view is now going to be incorporated into those proposals. And we are long-term investors in Mexico. I mean, it’s one of our core markets. It’s a market that we have been continuously investing for so many years. Whatever is good for Mexico is good for us. And I think this banking proposal – fee proposal is going to yield good results for Mexico, and we are going to be part of that one. In terms of South America, as you know, in 2018, just to be specific, the hyperinflation accounting adjustment was EUR 266 million, because of Argentina in 2019 – again, it depends on the macro, it depends on the inflation for sure, but we are expecting less than EUR 100 million in that adjustment line. So, it’s not going to be based on the current expectation. And as you know, it can change depending on the macro. We are expecting a much lower negative adjustment on hyperinflation from Argentina. And with regards to the rest of South America, Colombia has increased its profits 16%, constant euros this year; Peru has increased its profits 14% this year, very robust franchises that we have in multiple countries in Latin America. So, we expect the strength of the region to continue, except this hyperinflationary adjustment that we will be living through next year as well.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you. Thank you, Ignacio. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Britta Schmidt of Autonomous Research. Britta, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Britta Schmidt

Analyst

I’ve got two questions please. One on Turkey, on the net interest income. You’ve commented that the TL customer spread has improved again towards the end of the quarter. But obviously, the inflation outlook is also looking different. So what contribution of CPI linkers do you expect for 2019 and how do you expect the overall net interest income in Turkey to develop? And then secondly, a question on capital. You mentioned, helpfully, the IFRS 16 and Trim impacts. That’s definitely very useful. You also said, looking out further, there will be more impacts. Do you see any sort of Pillar 2 guidance impact coming from the NPL regulations that have recently been proposed, specifically with regards to the calendar impacts?

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Sorry, Britta, would you mind to repeat your last question please?

Britta Schmidt

Analyst

The second question was with regards to comments regarding the capital target increase. You said there’ll be IFRS 16 and Trim in the near-term, but also other impacts in the longer-term. Are you referring with this potentially to Pillar 2 guidance requirements that might come in as a result of NPL calendar effects? Or if not, maybe you can detail what else you have in mind in terms of regulatory developments. Onur Genç: Very good. Thank you, Britta. The second one, Jaime, why don’t you take the capital one on Turkey. The CPI linker contribution, we expect it to remain basically flat for 2019. The expectation that we had, as BBVA Research published it as well, is 16% inflation in 2019 in Turkey. Based on that, it’s going to be more or less flat. On the capital, Jaime?

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

No, the only major headwind that we have in the future in terms of capital consumptions is clearly Basel IV implementation in Europe. We know that the impact will be much lower than what’s expected for the whole European banking system, but that’s what guides our increase in the capital targets. Regarding the NPLs, we don’t expect any short-term impact. I think if there’s anything there and – there will be enough time to cover those expected provisions.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Britta. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrea Filtri of Mediobanca. Andrea, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Andrea Filtri

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered, but I just wondered if you could give us a bit more detail about the cost of risk sensitivity from IFRS 9 in the different geographies, assuming, let’s say, a 1% slowdown in GDP growth to be able to have a better understanding of the overall cost of risk evolution for the group under different economic scenarios? And do you also have in mind any impact on CET1 from EVA guidelines? Or do they overlap with Trim and with Basel IV as you were mentioning before? Thank you. Onur Genç: Andrea, I have this tendency to give the tough questions to Jaime. So Jaime, do you want to comment on both?

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

Yes. I think EVA impacts overlap with Trim, because the SSM, as you can imagine, uses EVA guidelines in their Trim analysis. On macro, it’s an impossible question to answer, because models are affected by – right. Onur Genç: Precisely, Jaime...

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

No, no, it’s – models are affected by many, many things, GDP, unemployment, interest rates, FX; and correlations, as you can imagine, are completely different within countries, within portfolios, so the blended is quite a complex matter. I wish I could do something as easy as that. Onur Genç: Thanks, Jaime.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Andrea. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Peixoto of BPI. Carlos, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Carlos Peixoto

Analyst

Hello, good morning. Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank-BPI. First question would be on the cost side. I was wondering, across – well, basically, talking a bit generically across geographies, where do you expect to see relevant changes on the cost base or where can we expect some efficiency improvements to be kicking in? Whether in Spain, is there further room for improvements still amidst the synergies from past acquisitions? On the second question, I was touched a bit on litigation risks. I mean, I guess that throughout 2019, we could have some visibility on the IRPH market theme. I was also wondering whether there are any potential additional litigation themes, for you in particular or for banks in general, that we should think about when looking into potential impacts or potential balance sheet risks going forward. Onur Genç: Thank you, Carlos. Thank you for both questions. The first one on the costs side. As I mentioned, this year, the overall growth in costs, despite very high inflation in some of our countries, was 2.5%. And this 2.5% compares with the blended average of inflation. And the blending – the weighting is done by the operating costs of different geographies of 5.7%. So in the context of 5.7% inflation, we have managed to grow our costs only by 2.5%. And this is because we are ultra focused on efficiency, as always, and we will continue to be doing that next year. So for next year, overall, we expect the same efficiency gains to come through because we are investing in this transformation program and we are seeing the benefits of that program, and we will continue to reap the benefits, in our view, in 2019 as well. But in terms of your asking specifically any geographies and so on, I can very…

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you, Carlos. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Marta Sánchez Romero of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Marta, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Marta Sánchez Romero: Hello, good morning. Thank you very much. I’ve got a couple of follow-up questions on Turkey and capital. First, on Turkey. Could you share your capital sensitivity analysis? What needs to happen to the currency for Garanti to need more capital? And the second question related to capital. You seem very confident, you could get to the 12%. Just to be clear, is this before or after the regulatory headwinds you’ve mentioned? Do you have any asset disposals in the pipeline? The press has been mentioning your Chile open lending business, your insurance business and headquarters in Mexico. So if you could clarify that if, as part of getting to that 12%, you’re including some non-organic capital generation. And lastly, and I think Jaime has mentioned it a bit, but just a clarification. Do you expect Trim to address some of the Basel IV risk-weighted asset inflation? And here, I’m talking about mortgages in Spain. Your density is very, very low and well below the output flows under Basel IV, do you think Trim could anticipate some of that? Onur Genç: Okay. Thank you, Marta. Maybe I’ll take, very quickly, the second one. And then, Jaime, you take the first and the third. The second one, 12%, is this before or after the regulatory developments. As you have just mentioned, the most immediate ones, IFRS 16 and Trim impacts, are included in our planning. Basel IV, which we have to see. And as you know, it’s going to be coming in, in 2022, that is not included in our forecast. And that’s exactly – precisely the reason that we are raising our capital target, because we want to be prepared and we have to have a clear comfort for such developments. But Basel IV is not included in that planning. And as follow-up in that question, you were asking about inorganic opportunities and whether the numbers are included and so on. Some, but not in a major way, you are very specific on one thing, which is about Chile, Forum, the auto lending business. Marta, as you know, we will continue to look into the opportunities. We were – we received some expressions of interest and we started this process, but at the end of the day, it depends on whether we find the right value for our shareholders, for our stakeholders, for our businesses there, we will see. But in terms of whether that’s – whether it includes that a bit. But again, that’s why we are providing you the range. And 11.50% to 12% is going to be mostly, I can say, mostly generated through organic capital generation. Jaime, on the first and the third.

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

Okay. On Turkey sensitivity, our current FX sensitivity in Turkey for a 10% depreciation on CET1 is 55 basis points. So, we lose 55 basis points of capital for every 10% depreciation of the currency. In order to not to make money in Turkey, we need a – of course, this depends on the pre-provision profit, but on average, we need a cost of risk of around 600 basis points. So, not only the very high capital that we have, the amount of pre-provisions that we have locally, I think, gives us I think quite a significant buffer to sustain any potential headwind that we can – that can take place in Turkey. On Trim and Basel IV, on the mortgage portfolio. Funny enough, the Trim on the mortgage book is actually the only one that has finalized as of today. And we have not received any add-ons on that portfolio from the supervisor. That's why we do not have any impact about Trim on the fourth quarter. So I don't think it's something that should concern us.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Cobo of Societe Generale. Carlos, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Carlos Cobo

Analyst

Hello, thank you for the presentation. And yes, many of my questions have been answered. But I'd like to touch on a quick question on the new arrival index. If you have more visibly on when that's going to be rolled and how that could affect your pricing in Spain, specifically. And then the other one, well, you've touched on that. But you said you don't expect new charges on the clients, the big tickets you've reviewed in Turkey. But I wonder whether there are other clients that are on the line to become more distressed after all the macro slowdown. And I don't know, if you still have to go through another part of the wholesale banking portfolio and that could push provisions higher in terms of single names. Onur Genç: Thank you, Carlos. I'll take the second one. Jaime, why don't you take the first one. On the second one, as I said, Carlos, it depends a lot on macro and, more importantly, on the currency. Turkey has been doing great, actually, in the last quarter after this hiccup in the currency in the summertime period, August. In the last quarter, fourth quarter 2018 the currency actually has depreciated by 16%, which is a major figure. And as I said, for the large-ticket loans, our expectation, if I have said that we don't expect anymore, it was wrong. What I'm saying is, given the FX sensitivity of those loans, it depends on the currency, and it's very tough to forecast the currency in terms of – in short time periods. To cut to long story short, I said it probably a number of times, but we stick with our guidance of less than 300. This might involve continuing to move some large tickets, but a good chunk of those tickets will be driven by the foreign currency development. And lately, as you know, we are seeing, actually, very positive developments with respect to currency. And overall, I mean, the macro situation, based on the latest signals, there's a clear new economic development program announced in September by the country, as you know, and a very robust program. We are seeing some positive developments on those as well. So we'll see bottom line, guidance less than 300. Jaime?

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

Okay. As you all know, benchmark regulation is affecting significantly all indexes all across the world. And in Europe, that's also the case. The Belgian regulator is currently coordinating all its efforts around new arriver. It's true that we need to phase with the new regulation and the lower activity and at least in certain durations. We'll see what comes out of that. But I think the authorities are working on alternative rates to be used. ESTER should be a potentially good alternative as is to replace EONIA. So this is an ongoing process. We're all working very hard to try to be prepared because this clearly involves significant amount of work, but it's still too early to qualify the situation.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Okay, thank you. I think it’s time for the very last question.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from Mario Ropero of Fidentiis. Mario, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Mario Ropero

Analyst

Hello, good morning. Thank you. Two follow-up questions on NII in Spain. The first one is, could you please specify the contribution from TLTRO to NII? And then the second one, given the decrease in the ALCO book in the fourth quarter, could you please give us some indication about the size of such ALCO going forward?

Jaime Saenz de Tejada

Analyst

Okay. I think you said TLTRO. If you remember, in 2017, we accrue for 1.5 years, for 18 months of TLTRO. We did not want to start accruing until we had sufficient clarity that we were going to be able to reach the loan targets set by the ECB. In 2018, we only accrued for 12 months. The difference is 48 million between 2018 and 2017, which is why we always say that it explains the majority of the decrease in NII in Spain. Regarding the ALCO portfolio, it went down by roughly EUR 6 billion in the fourth quarter. As we already guided, significant maturities, especially on our Italian exposure. So the current size stands at EUR 22.5 billion. Duration because of those increased maturities in the fourth quarter has increased from 3.3 years to 5 years now. The size, which is a question, the size of the portfolio will probably increase slightly, but something along these levels, I think, is the minimum that a bank of our size can afford to have.

Gloria Couceiro

Operator

Thank you. Thank you, Mario, and thank you all for participating in this call. Let me remind you that the entire IR team will remain available to answer any questions you may have. Onur, do you want to add anything? Onur Genç: No, I mean, just to reiterate the same messages. I think this was a very challenging year in terms of the macro developments and the associated currency movements in some of our geographies. As I said, 25% depreciation in Turkey and 48% in Argentina, but despite those macro and more important, the currency movements, this was a year where our diversified business model, in my view, proved its resilience. I mean, we have increased our profits by 51%. On a comparable basis, we have increased our profits by 8%. And the things that we care a lot about, tangible book value per share, has gone up by 10%. We have one of the highest return on tangible equities in the banking industry. So we are happy. And it's my first investor's call. I want to thank everyone for their patience and for their support. Thank you to you all.