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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 27, 2017

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Transcript

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the First Quarter 2017 Results Presentation of BBVA. I'm Gloria Couceiro, Global Head of Investor Relations. And here with me today is Carlos Torres, Chief Executive Officer of the group. This time, Jaime Sáenz de Tejada, Chief Financial Officer of the group, won't be able to join us as he had a minor accident, and we wish him a quick recovery so that he may be back as soon as possible. As usual, Carlos will begin with the presentation of results, and we will move straight to the Q&A after that. Let me remind you that as it was the case in the last quarter results presentations, we will be conducting a live Q&A. We would appreciate all the participants to try to make the calls from the landlines and avoid using the speaker phones so that we can hear you as better as possible. And, now, I'll hand over the call to Carlos. Good morning, Carlos.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Good morning and thank you, Gloria. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA's first quarter 2017 results webcast. Today, we are presenting excellent results in the quarter, as you have seen, with the highest net attributable profit over the last seven quarters, €1,199 million. And we're also presenting a very good evolution of our capital with our core equity Tier 1 fully loaded ratio of 11.01%, which is 11 basis points more than we had a quarter ago. Even including the negative impact of 13 basis points on aggregate from the Garanti and the CNCB transactions that were booked in the quarter. So, that's 24 we add the increase plus those 13. It's not depicted here, but our tangible book value per share is €5.88 at the end of the quarter. That is up by €0.15 versus last quarter and adding €0.13 of the dividend that we paid, it would be a €0.28 of additional tangible book value per share, which is almost a 5% increase in just one quarter. In terms of the highlights, this good set of results is supported by good growth in core revenues. NII and fees growing in constant euros at 9.2% versus last year, the same quarter last year. Secondly, by cost control efforts, which are bearing fruit, and as you know, it's one of the key strategic priorities, to improve our efficiency. Our operating jaws are widening. Income grew at 15% year-on-year, 11.3% growth if we exclude the CNCB sale. And costs, on the other hand, grew by just 1.8% year-on-year. I would also highlight the sound asset quality with maintaining good risk profile, cost of risk at a low of 0.9%. The strong capital and liquidity ratios, I already mentioned, the 11.01%. That's because of our ability to generate recurring results and…

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Carlos. We are now ready to move into the live Q&A session. For the sake of time, I would like to ask all of you to limit yourself to two questions per caller, so that we can attend as many participants as possible. So, first question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. The first question today comes from José Abad from Goldman Sachs. Please, sir, go ahead. José Abad - Goldman Sachs International: Hello. Hello. Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. My first question is on Mexico. We've seen actually NPLs flat, cost of risk coming down. So, two questions here on – one is on whether you could give us some color per loan segment and whether you see any problems in the consumer lending side and maybe in the credit cards as well? And with regard to loan growth, we've seen already year-on-year 10% flattish Q-on-Q. Not sure whether this is a bit weaker than what you were expecting and that you – and will you plan actually to revise your guidance for the year? And the second question is regarding the cost of risk in Spain. You've reported a cost of risk of around 40 bps. Some of your competitors are already reporting cost of risk well below this number. So, the question is actually whether you expect, given the strength in the market cycle in Spain, this number to go below 40 bps, and if so, how low should we expect the cost of risk in BBVA Spain to get? Thank you very much.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Well, thank you. Thank you, José, for your questions. Regarding Mexico, we absolutely maintain our guidance of high-single digit. We've seen good growth in the quarter. It does seem less than that if you compare with December where there is only a 0.3% growth in total loans. But there are a few facts here that need to be taken into account to really understand that evolution, first of which is seasonality versus the fourth quarter, which is traditionally quite strong. And then, we have 15% of our book around that. It's denominated in U.S. dollars. So in this quarter, we had peso appreciation, which had an effect on the apparent growth of the total loan book. If you exclude the FX impact, the loans would have grown by around 2% versus December, which is a strong number for the first quarter. So, guidance, again, high-single digit and we're happy to see that Mexico's evolving well. No issues also on the consumer book that you were hinting maybe whether there were any problems there. We don't see that. In fact, we had quite low cost of risk in the quarter in Mexico, and we still maintain our guidance of 3.5%, as I said in the call. Similarly for the Spanish cost of risk, we had a good quarter with just below 40 bps. I think it was 38 bps. And we maintain that guidance of being below those 40 basis points. Next question.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Marta Sánchez Romero from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Marta Sánchez Romero - Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Thank you very much. My first question is on the Spanish ALCO portfolio. You have reduced volumes. Are you expecting to rebuild that portfolio? And if you could remind us the yield, average maturity and the underlying capital gains there? And the second question is on TLTRO. Have you accrued the 40 basis points rebate in this quarter? Thank you very much.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

So, starting with the last one, and then I'll pass it on to Gloria for some details on the ALCO. TLTRO, we have booked partially the impact of a low rate, so 20 bps over the 40 bps, but we've done that for nine months. So, we have booked €36 million in our Spanish business. Because of this in this quarter in this amount, it's going to be, we believe, if things go according to plan in terms of how the volumes grow, we should be booking a similar amount in the following quarters so about €36 million every quarter. And, again, €36 million correspond to 20 bps for 9 months. So, we've caught up since we started. I remind you we have nearly €24 billion that we took from the ECB, and so that's the TLTRO question. Regarding the ALCO, we did reduce our positions. And again, this is a function of how we manage our structural risks. And this had an impact on the Spanish NII, no doubt, as other elements that we can discuss later. But, Gloria, do you want to give some detail on them?

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Yeah. The ALCO portfolio, the euro balance sheet amounts as of March at €27.9 billion, which is a significant decrease versus March last year, minus 28%. The duration of the ALCO portfolio is 3.6 years, and the yield is around 2.2%. So, thank you, Marta. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sofie Peterzens from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Sofie Peterzens - JPMorgan Securities Plc

Management

Yeah. Hi. Here is Sofie Peterzens from JPMorgan. Could you just remind us of your rate sensitivity to 100 basis points increase in interest rates across your core regions? And also, could you remind us of your hedging strategy across the different divisions and countries? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Yeah. Sensitivity, we have high sensitivity in the euro area. That's just above 9.4% positive sensitivity to 100 basis points rise, parallel movement in the interest rates. And that would be sort of the first 12-month impact. It's also positive in most of our other markets, except for Turkey. So, it's U.S., 5.6%; Mexico, 1.8%; and South America, 2.4%; and in Turkey, it's negative 3.4%. And the hedging policy, we've maintained the same policy, so we're hedging right now around 50% of our exposures at group level and around 60% for the emerging market currencies, mostly Mexico and Turkey, around those levels which will be the important ones. That's our hedging policy on the impact of FX movement in our P&L. And then, we also have a quite high hedging of the FX impact on our capital ratio. We do have the natural coverage of the risk-weighted assets also being denominated in that currency. And then, the excess exposure, we typically cover at a very high level. So right now, our sensitivity to a 10% depreciation, it's really quite low. It's below 2 basis points in each one of the main currencies.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Okay. Thank you, Sofie. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Alvaro Serrano - Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc: Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is on the clarification on the comments on NII in Spain and the TLTRO. Did you say €36 million, 3-6 million, was included in the Q1 number in Spain? Because if I do exclude that, the underlying, it looks like it was down more than 7% quarter-on-quarter, which I understand the reasons you explained. It seems quite weak even so. And could you – if my math is correct if I've understood correctly, can you give us an updated guidance for the full year because flat wouldn't be feasible, it looks like? That's the first question. And the second on Mexico, just on costs, the developments of costs have been very, very good as you've highlighted. It's 4% costs growth in Mexico. What we should be looking for for the full year? Can you give us a sense of, maybe this year in medium-term cost guidance for Mexico? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Alvaro. Yeah. On NII, the number is €36 million, 3-6 million euro, which was booked in the first quarter. The softer growth or actually decrease that you allude to, if you net that out, it's very much linked with our CIB business. So there, we have two big effects. One, I mentioned in the call. One is the Global Markets contribution, which was much lower this quarter than the fourth quarter, and that was compensated by a higher net trading income. And as I say in Global Markets, you should look at those two things together. Also by lower holdings of securities. In the first quarter, we had the big reduction in our holdings. And this, of course, depends on our strategy, how we play the movements in rates and credit spreads, but that part was not included in our guidance. So, going forward, we – because everything else was very much in line with what we expected so no surprises in the movements of our activity and spreads in Spain. The guidance, I remind you all, that NII should remain flat in 2017 in our Spanish business, all taken. The trends, as I say, the underlying trends we've seen in the first quarter are consistent, we think, with that guidance, maybe with the exception of the CIB business that I just explained regarding the lower holdings of securities, and that was not in the guidance. So, the flat guidance is challenging but we will have to see if the evolution of volumes and spreads in the coming quarters can compensate that negative effect. And on Mexico, we did have a good quarter in costs, and we expect costs to behave well. I wouldn't extrapolate the quarter but for sure, we maintain that the costs will be growing below revenues in Mexico. Alvaro Serrano - Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc: Thank you.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Alvaro. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Stefan Nedialkov from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Stefan R. Nedialkov - Citigroup Global Markets Ltd.

Management

Yeah. Hi, guys. Good morning. Stefan from Citi. I've got two questions as well. And sorry to be coming back to this Spanish NII topic. But Carlos, from what I understood, you booked 20 basis points on €24 billion of TLTRO. So, that works out to around €12 million per quarter, not €36 million. So, is the TLTRO contribution €12 million or €36 million in 1Q? And my second question is on the restructuring cost of €148 million in Spain. How much of that has to do with CatalunyaCaixa? How much of that is digital transformation? And what are the benefits of that €148 million in 2017 and beyond? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you. Thank you, Stefan. Again, we have – since we had not recorded any benefit from TLTRO since we took it in June of last year for the third and fourth quarter of 2016, in 2017 in this first quarter, we're booking three quarters worth of 20 basis points. So, the €12 million you calculate, you multiply by 3, that's €36 million. So, again, next quarter, we will be booking around €36 million again, if things go well – according to plan, I mean – and similarly in third and the fourth and those €36 million would correspond to the full amount of the TLTRO. And these are approximate numbers. Regarding restructuring costs, we have – I mean this is very much linked with our efficiency efforts. And the guidance we gave that costs in Spain should be coming down around 5%, mid-single digits in the year. And what we have done is really accelerate that to try to get the gains as soon as possible. And it has to do with the closures of branches that we have done already and the ones that we have announced, so about 250 branch closures; in total, 260. That is coming quite at the beginning of the year. And, again, as I said, the restructuring charge of €148 million in Spain represents more than half of what we expect for the entire year. And this will be likely front-loaded, so also we should have in the second quarter and that would be probably it for the year in terms of restructuring charges.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Stefan. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Mario Ropero from Fidentiis. Please go ahead.

Mario Ropero - Fidentiis

Management

Hello. Good morning. A couple of questions. The first one is on lending spreads evolution. Spain, it seems like still continue to come down. We have been reading a lot of comments that potentially they could recover. So, if you could comment on that, please. And then, the second question is, if I got you right, I thought that you said at the beginning of the presentation that there were €174 million coming from CNCB, offset by €177 million of restructuring charges. But then I heard about €148 million of charges in Spain so if you could tell us the remaining ones, please. Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Yeah. I didn't quite follow completely your first question, Mario. I think you were asking about spreads in Spain. Is that right?

Mario Ropero - Fidentiis

Management

Yeah, yeah. The question was that I noticed that, well, basically the credit yield in Spain was down more than the decline of Euribor rates. So, I guess that lending spreads are still going down. So, I just wanted to see your thoughts on that and on the outlook in the near term.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Well, it's very much linked with the Euribor repricing, the continued repricing. That's what caused our lending rates on average to go down on performing loans from 2.1% to 2.03%. So, the 7 bps have a lot to do with the Euribor repricing mostly, although there are some effects because there's less days in the first quarter. And the way this is calculated, that apparently has some impact on the ratio. And then, as you can see, that was more than compensated by the positive evolution of the costs of our deposits in Spain because of the changing mix. And again, we expect the spread for the year to remain flat versus last year. We will be compensating the declines in yields with reduction in the costs of deposits. And then regarding the €148 million, there is an additional restructuring charge beyond the Spanish business charges that has to do with cost reduction at the holding level. So those are – yeah, go ahead, Gloria.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Yeah. Sorry, If I may. The total amount, as you have mentioned, Mario, for the group pre-tax is €177 million. The main is booked in Spain, €148 million, and you have €8 million also in Eurasia. And as Carlos was mentioning, €12 million in the holding. And then the rest are small amounts in South America. Thank you, Mario. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Britta Schmidt - Autonomous Research LLP

Analyst · Autonomous Research. Please go ahead

Yeah. Hi there. Good morning. I just want to come back to the Spanish net interest income. The decline in the quarter was €37 million. And if we adjust that for the €36 million TLTRO, it would've been €73 million. Can you give us a little bit more insight how much of that was down to CIB? How much of that was down to the ALCO portfolio move and how much of that was down to the general customer business in Spain? And the second question I have is on the asset quality outlook in Turkey. Turkish provisioning looks relatively good versus the Garanti outlook. And last quarter, I think you were a little bit more cautious on this. What sort of guidance can you give us for the full year for Garanti's provisioning?

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Okay. Since I've answered, I think, three times already on the NII, maybe I'll hand it over to Gloria. Maybe she can do a better job.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

No. Just one comment. If we exclude all the extraordinary things that happened in the CIB business, the NII in Spain could have been flat in the quarter versus the fourth quarter. Okay?

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Right. But that includes the TLTRO, which was included in our guidance of having a flat NII, so you shouldn't forget that also. And then, regarding Turkey, we have cost of risk guidance of around 110 basis points. So, certainly, given the environment, there's the risk of additional deterioration beyond that. But what we have seen is a strong start of the year with a V recovery in the economy, and we have revised our projections upwards because of that. And then, given the results of the referendum, we believe that it is quite likely that, as we were also sharing with many of you that after that, it is quite likely that the policies will be quite pro-growth, pro-reforming the economy to be more competitive and doing the right things for Turkish economy to grow. And if that is the case, then that risk should not materialize. But right now, we don't change our outlook.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you. Britta. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Andrea Filtri - Mediobanca SpA

Analyst · Mediobanca. Please go ahead

Yes. What are you going to do with the capital you build about the 11% target in CET1? And the second question, very quick, are you seeing the positive influx from Popular clients? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Well, we don't comment on competitors, so I would skip that one. Regarding the build, this is a recurring question, and the answer is simple. The 11% is really us sharing what our views are as to the proper capital level that we should have. So, we should not be looking at building capital beyond the 11%. And so far, we haven't been building that beyond the 11%. You should not think immediately then that we're going to do things with our capital that are not maximizing money for shareholders. We would absolutely look at giving it back. We are accumulating excess but right now, as I also shared in other quarters, there are uncertainties going forward in the medium term around regulation, Basel IV, IFRS 9, et cetera and we have to see how that plays out. So, we believe we're in the right place. We don't want to have more capital than those levels represent in a meaningful way. We do have volatility around that number so it's not like an exact math. We could have a bad quarter in markets, a bad quarter in FX and that could go down. You've seen some of those events happen in quarters past. We also had some good quarters like this quarter was good in the markets, so we will have some volatility around the number, but that is included in the fact that 11% is the right number for us. So, I wouldn't think much that we're going to be building beyond the 11% and we would be hovering around that number and then we will see how regulation impacts that and with all the phase-ins that come in, et cetera.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Andrea. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ignacio Perez (sic) [Ignacio Cerezo] from UBS. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Cerezo - UBS Ltd.

Analyst

Yeah. Hi. It's Ignacio Cerezo here from UBS. A couple of questions from me. I'm going to have to come back actually to the TLTRO discussion in Spain, so apologies for that. But what is the rationale of using the 20 bps? Obviously, I mean volumes actually have been probably below the threshold but should we expect like an increase in terms of the amount of basis points you book on this in the rest of the year? And the second question is if you can comment on any initial sort of signs of improvement in terms of asset quality or volume growth in Turkey related to the Credit Guarantee Fund? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Yeah. On TLTRO, that's a good question. We have booked 20 basis points because that's sort of what we're trending right now. So, we're growing the perimeter and we're in line to growing that 2.5% that we need to grow to get the 40 bps benefit. So, we record 20 bps because that's sort of where we are right now. It has the added benefit but that's a coincidence that then that would give us the €36 million, it will continue trending for the following quarters. So, you shouldn't have much distortion quarter-on-quarter because of the number that we include. But then, that's not a given. We need to see how the volumes evolve. And then, sorry, regarding Turkey, the Credit Guarantee Fund, in fact, has been a significant factor in supporting our growth in the commercial business, given that we are protected and we have risk-weighted assets relief from the guarantee that the state provides. So, when you see the strong growths in the TL portfolio in Garanti, it has to do – not only because we also have good growth in consumer, but it has to do a lot with the commercial portfolio growing because of the Credit Guarantee Fund scheme.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Ignacio. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Carlos Cobo from Société Générale. Please, sir, go ahead. Carlos Cobo Catena - Société Générale SA (Spain): Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. A quick comment on IFRS 9, if I may. Have you made any assessments already on the potential impact? And if you could please breaking it down between what do you expect in terms of the upfront impact, whether it's going to be phased out or not? And secondly, do you think that under the IFRS 9 standards, there could be any pickup in the underlying cost of risk for any of the franchises resulting from having to provide for the performing loan book as well? Thank you. Only one question.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Well, thank you. Well, it's quite uncertain still given the complexity of the modeling and the challenges around it. So, we believe it's too early to really provide a reliable estimate. We do have our estimates but we wouldn't want to share them just yet about the expected impact. So, we will probably have to wait until closer to the end of the year when we know really what the rules will be that apply and how the modeling actually exactly works given how big a change it represents in calculating our provisionings based on where we are in the cycle and how much the probability of defaults have deteriorated or not versus when we underwrote the loans, et cetera. Again, this has no impact really on the underlying business itself in the sense that it's just a different way of recording the losses, whether you bring forward the 12-month expected loss or you bring forward the lifetime loss of the loan in a particular point in time. Certainly, it will have an impact in making our P&L more book volatile as we move through the cycle – in good times, very positive and in bad times, very negative. But over through the cycle, it shouldn't change anything. Regarding the impact of that, we believe it will be manageable also because of the phase-in period that has been talked about in terms of the hit in capital. So, we still don't know the percentages, but what's been talked about, what we hear makes it extremely manageable.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Carlos Peixoto from BPI. Please, sir, go ahead. Carlos Peixoto - Banco Português de Investimento SA: Hi. Good morning. My question would be on bail-in-able capital and basically what are your expected – what are your plans in terms of issuances of either AT1,Tier 2 or even bail-in-able senior bonds? How much do you plan to issue over coming years basically? And what would be your expectations on the impact or the costs that these issues could have and its impacts for NII? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Okay. Well, first of all, it remains unclear how much we need to issue of MREL because the requirement is not clear and also the timing to comply is not clear. And we expect to have a more informative target on what MREL should be by year-end. But our needs in the different scenarios that we've run internally would be manageable and even lower most probably than the maturities that we would have on our wholesale funding in the coming years. So, again, we're not a G-SIB, so our calendar is not as tight as for the other banks that need to comply with the TLAC. So, we're in a way less hurried to issue MREL-eligible instruments. And then, being a Spanish bank, we would like to have more clarity on how the Spanish law allows for the issuance of the senior non-preferred. So, we're waiting also for an appropriate national legal framework, which hopefully we could have before the summer. And I think there is some date set for June as a tentative date where that could be in place. If that were the case, we would be ready to tap the market in the second half of the year once the new law has passed.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Ignacio Ulargui from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning. I just have one question on the Turkish NII. After their performance in 1Q, what should we expect going forward in a year, especially in looking to margins, if you see any particular pressure in Turkish lira deposits? Thanks.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Yeah. That's another good question because we've seen rising rates. Even yesterday, there was another hike of 50 basis points. And this is the one place where we have negative sensitivity. So far, we have seen very good management, as I was saying in the call as well, of spreads. So, together with the rising volumes, we have had flat spreads at high levels after the rise in spreads we had last year. So, we will continue to, of course, pass on the high rates and try to control the cost of our funding, the cost of deposits. That would be the challenge. So, overall, I wouldn't say there's any change from what we shared in past quarters regarding situation in Turkey. We are moving into that higher rate environment which we believe it's a good thing given how high inflation is and it was needed also to support the lira. And now this movement yesterday is a more explicit movement towards higher rates. And given how strong our management team has performed in terms of managing that equation, we're confident that we can continue to have good spreads.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Okay. Thank you, Ignacio. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Sarah (sic) [Daragh] Quinn from KBW. Please go ahead. Daragh Quinn - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Hello. Hi. It's Daragh from KBW. A question on Spain and asset quality. Just noting the NPL ratio stable this quarter, are we at the bottom of the improvement in NPLs or should we expect an improvement in subsequent quarters? And given the trends in the housing market pricing, when do you expect to be able to have zero losses on the runoff real estate business? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Okay. The NPLs, we believe they will continue to decrease in Spain, maybe at a lower pace than last year because we might have a lower level of recoveries. We're expecting that, given the increase in time, for example, to consider that the mortgages have incurred. But overall, continuing the trend towards lower NPLs, maybe we could expect NPL sales. That could reduce the balance further in the commercial portfolios. And then regarding real estate, as I shared in the call, we have a clear strategy of accelerating our divestments, the reduction of our exposures. We have reduced very significantly in the quarter and hope to be doing more deals in coming quarters to continue that trend. It's hard to know when this will be over but we believe that over the next three years, it should be significantly down to a level that is really not material.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Daragh. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Carlos García from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please, sir, go ahead. Carlos García González - Kepler Cheuvreux SA (Spain): Hi. Good morning. I've got a couple of questions. One is on mortgage floors. Can you update us if there's any claims of clients for floors below and before 2013, and whether we can extrapolate some of the lessons from that case to the mortgage setup costs case? How is that going on? Secondly, in terms of capital and given the high contribution from the emerging markets in your portfolio of businesses, do you think you would need to move to above tier levels of Core Tier 1 to be on a more comfortable position? Thank you.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Carlos. So, the mortgage floors, there is really nothing different from what we expected. We provisioned €577 million at the end of last year in December to cover the contingencies that could arise from claims on the mortgage floor retroactivity. And given how the claims have behaved to date, we have no reason to believe that we should change that number. On the mortgage costs, on the origination costs, it is quite clear that regulation determines that the stamp duty tax, which is really 80% of the total expenses incurred when a mortgage is originated, should be paid by the customer. That's really in the stamp duty law, and we're seeing that the courts are ruling in that direction. So, beyond that, there are other claims waiting for final judgment in the Supreme Court. So, some of the other open issues around this matter should be expected soon. And given how the claims have evolved, we don't believe there's a significant amount that we should be provisioning here, and we can manage without significant additional provisioning needs. Regarding capital, we – again, we have this target of 11% and given the requirements we have versus others, I think that's also an indication of the type of bank we have, the type of business we have, and we are diversified which makes us very resilient also because of our model, the multiple point of entry model. So, diversified, resilient. We have good coverage in provisioning. We have low – we have high risk-weighted asset density and good leverage levels. So, no, the answer – my answer would be no. We would not need capital above our peers, actually quite the contrary, and I think our supervisors agree with that in that they're setting our requirements at lower levels.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The question is from Francisco Riquel from Alantra Equities. Please, sir, go ahead.

Francisco Riquel - Alantra Equities Sociedad de Valores SA

Analyst · Alantra Equities. Please, sir, go ahead

Yes. Hello. Most of my questions have been answered. I just would need a clarification on the cost of risk in Turkey. I see that you have booked 85 basis points in the quarter and guiding for 110 basis points in the year. When I look at Garanti numbers reported yesterday, I see that they have booked the so-called general provisions and the cost of risk I think is 110 bps already in the first quarter. So, just wonder if there is a difference in the reporting of Garanti versus yours in the quarter. Just wanted this clarification. Thank you.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Yes.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Do you want to answer that, Gloria?

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Yes. There is a difference in the line where they register this provision. So, that's the reason why they reported a lower cost of risk, 50-something basis points. And in our case, as you have mentioned, Paco, is 85 basis points in this quarter. Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in today call. I give the floor back to you. Thank you.

Gloria Couceiro - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Management

Okay. So, thank you very much for participating in this call. As you know, the entire IR team will remain available to answer any questions you may have. And thank you very much to everybody. Have a nice day.

D. Carlos Torres Vila - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA

Operator

Thank you.