Earnings Labs

Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBDO)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 5, 2024

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Transcript

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I am Marcelo Noronha. I am here speaking from Cidade de Deus, the headquarter of Bradesco Bank, for the presentation of the results on the second quarter 2024. Now, the time is 10.31 a.m. And it's a pleasure for me to be with you again this morning, this beautiful sunny morning in the town of Osasco in Sao Paulo. And we are here to talk about our results for the second quarter, which hit BRL4.7 billion of net income, growing 12% quarter-on-quarter, meaning that the second vis-a-vis the first quarter of the year, with this ROI that you see here in the screen. And here we have six topics that summarize our net income or summarize what happened in the second quarter of 2024. It could also be the summary and the conclusions that will lead us straight into our Q&A. First of all, we had a solid and safe profitability growth. And here I'm referring to our loan portfolio and the mix that I am about to show you in a moment. We also posted an evolution of net NII driven by client NII quarter-on-quarter and also the reduction in control of loan loss provision expenses. We increased the expanded portfolio in all segments, including in the wholesale bank with emphasis on SME and MSME and individuals. But please note that we are not growing above market rates. We are growing in-line with the market. We had improvement in NPL in all segments, and also we posted growth in the coverage ratio. Operating expenses are growing in-line with our expectations, and naturally with a lot of discipline, we were able to accelerate our footprint, as we've been saying to you before. And finally, we were able to maintain the solid performance in the insurance…

A - Andre Carvalho

Operator

Thank you, Cassiano. Thank you, Marcelo. It's a pleasure to be here with you. The CEO of our insurance group is participating remotely and let us begin the Q&A session. Your questions can be sent in Portuguese or English using three channels. Either email to investors@bradesco.com.br using the WhatsApp number [(11)-974438238] (ph) or if you want to point your mobile phone to the QR code, you can send your questions. First question from Renato Meloni with Autonomous. Renato?

Renato Meloni

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. So it's good to see you. Thank you for taking my questions. My question is about the guidance. In this quarter, you added an additional information to the guidance with a much lower expectation of market NII. But the guidance was reinforced. So I understand that the client NII will be lower, and provisions will probably be lower. So I'd like to understand. Perhaps you can explain whether this comes from a greater growth of client NII or lower provisions, and I'd like to understand actually what changed compared to the beginning of the year when you prepared the guidance, when you had a higher market NII expectation.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Renato, thank you for the question. I'll start, and then my colleagues can add. My first answer to you is we improved our expectations in the outlook, considering what we had in mind when we prepared the guidance. So we're able to deliver more now. You just have to check the expectation of implicit net interest income in the guidance, and you'll see that we have a higher number. And the market NII is expected to be better for Q2 -- stronger than Q2, and quarter after quarter we'll continue to increase our growth in our client NII. But we cannot separate the provision caused from the growth of NII. They move together. When you have a better mix with the right pricing, adequate modeling and models, we are bringing growing results with safety, Renato. This is how I see this. This is my expectation. And, Andre and Cassiano, you can add anything?

Andre Rodrigues Cano

Analyst

Well, good morning, Renato. I just would like to add to what Marcelo said. I'd like to remind you that in the guidance, as Marcelo mentioned during the presentation, we have the implicit net income. That's our reference. And we started adding something more to show how we are looking at our NIM. There's a specific guidance, how we set out the ranges which we believe are fundamental to get to this implicit profit. And the traditional guidance, by the way, is annual. So the lines will fluctuate. But it is just a north for us, an incentive for us. We want everyone to focus on the initial guidance because it is very tangible. It is very strong. So our people can work with a lot of dedication. And more than that, we cannot forget that the lines have values that will complement the market NII. It can come from the client NII, can come from very controlled expenses or in fee and commission income. So we’re confident in the implicit profit. It's a base and we'll try to deliver more. And just to add, this time we added a slide to the presentation which is the slide of the levers. In other words, we present to you measures that have been adopted to accelerate our revenues. Our revenues don't grow in a linear fashion. They will expand more in the second half compared to the first half. And Marcelo spoke about number of clients who are pre-approved, offering of loans to these clients, increased approval ratio, better management of the client funds. In other words, a number of measures that should help us accelerate revenues and margins in the second half. It's a game we're playing. It is a challenging one for sure, but we continue to pursue the goal. That's my point.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Moving on to the next question from Eduardo Rosman from BTG.

Eduardo Rosman

Analyst

Good morning. Congratulations on the results. I have two questions. The first is about your risk appetite. I think the financial conditions of the country and even abroad got worse. I just want to understand how this could eventually change the bank's risk appetite for the next quarters. And my second question is about the recently announced change in variable remuneration. Does that contemplate anything like short-term or mid-term? I know that you are in the midst of an important transition. I just want to understand whether you're contemplating anything for next year.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Rosman, and thank you for your questions. I would say that our risk appetite is moderate because we have our feet on the ground. You might recall that I showed a chart of the approval rate in 2016. It was 16% -- now it's 16% lower than what we used to approve in the past in terms of individuals when we compare today to June of last year vis-à-vis June of this year, but in SMEs that's still lower, [17% -- against 27%] (ph). And if you look back, remember what I said about mix and pricing. So we have models, mix pricing, and obviously this composition of risk appetite with a much more severe portfolio management based on SME, meaning that we are much more comfortable in terms of what we are doing. But we still, in keeping with the market, we are not, you know, exceeding the level of growth, but we have a lower appetite in terms of SMEs. But as we are monitoring that very closely every single day, maybe tomorrow with a change in the macro landscape, we may adjust our appetite for risk. So we are growing with quality and a good level of security and solidity. And the new variable remuneration that I could not summarize that in only two minutes, but I'll try to give you an overall picture. If I take, for instance, the wholesale bank, the managers, they were already measured on what they generate in their portfolios based on some indicators. But the leadership group was less linked in terms of the weighted average to the unit itself, but they were more linked to the bank's general business. And the bank's general business remains an important trigger because we have to meet shareholders' expectations, but it's important to look at the leadership group and one of our colleagues, that the remuneration is a bit higher because they have to take care of a lot of people. So this applies to operating efficiency and areas related to this transformation. So things were done in such a way that is based on merit. So if Andre delivers more, I have to compensate him better when compared to another colleague that has a good profile, a good track record with the company, but he didn't deliver as well. So his compensation is not the same as Andre' compensation. But we look at the different business units and we look at individual performance, but mostly based on what is under that individual's wing of responsibility and the new variable compensation is already being applied in the second half of the year.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Now the next question comes from Thiago Batista from UBS. Thiago, welcome.

Thiago Batista

Analyst

Congratulations on your results. I have two questions. The first, Noronha, when he presented the strategic plan a few quarters ago, he said that the bank expected to have returns very close to the cost of capital at some point in 2025. When we look at Bradesco's results this quarter, is it possible to say that the rebound of the bank is occurring faster than you anticipated or maybe not, or maybe ROE it's in-line with the capital or the estimate for 2025. And the second question is about the insurance company. What was the impact of the events in Rio Grande do Sul? How does that affect the bank's results? Or there is still something to be recognized going forward?

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Well, Thiago, sorry, I said Rosman. Rosman was the previous question. Thiago, This ROE close to capital in 2025, as you mentioned, I think the dates may change. I mean, we are not promising to deliver ROE close to capital with a very specific view. But I think we are talking about 2026. But now what I can tell you goes in-line with what you said. Well, we are moving faster. Yes, we are faster than what we previously anticipated. That's why when I talk about the guidance and the net income, we were above the guidance. So I think that we can deliver something in addition to what was implicit in our net income in the combination of all KPIs. But in terms of your second question, all of the potential impacts for the insurance business that is much more related to the Auto segment has been already absorbed in this half year. And in terms of the solidarity with our clients and people in Rio Grande do Sul, not only at the bank. We made – there were several actions, but the insurance company paid for all the claims and everything has already been contemplated in the results of the bank, which was good. So we don't anticipate any impacts going forward. The impact was fully provisioned in our results line. Thank you for your questions. Any more comments? Ivan is here. Ivan, do you have any additional comment, please?

Ivan Gontijo

Analyst

Hi, Marcelo, and thank you, Andre. It's just important to give a little bit more visibility to Thiago that the amount was BRL165 million gross, BRL100 million net. That was the impact to the insurance business. And we do not believe that this will be carried over in the next quarter. So there will be no further effect in our P&L. And also, you talked about the insurance assistance when we aided our insurance holders and those that were not insurance holders. So the impacts have been already contemplated in the P&L of the second half and now we just have to look at the second half in a more objective and clear way with all our objectives in line.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Ivan, very much. Thiago, thank you.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Thank you, Ivan. Thank you, Thiago. Next question from Bernardo Guttmann with XP.

Bernardo Guttmann

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations on the performance this quarter. After the important de-risking work and work to improve the quality of credit, and a resuming origination of individuals' loans, and I imagine that this growth should be a combination of different segments in addition to the most market. The bank historically also had this DNA, a strong exposure to low income. It would be interesting if you could elaborate on how you're advancing to the top of the pyramid. The market seems a lot more competitive with some well-established players. Perhaps you could speak about the different digital platforms and the other initiatives in financial advisory, which you are pursuing to improve your mix and positioning in the individuals segment.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Bernardo. Thank you for the question. You actually mentioned some important conclusions. It is true what you said. You will remember an indicator I showed of credit cards. We are not growing that portfolio a lot. There's a variation in terms of service provision there and fee and commission income. It's low, but we grew a lot more in the high-income portfolio. We grew 12% year-on-year. So what you said is true. We have substantial growth in mid-income, in high-income, as well as in lower-risk products, which are also originated by Digio and by Bradesco Expresso, such as payroll loans. I spoke about the four lines. INSS, public, private, payroll loans, and FGTS payroll loans. So we are growing in all of these audiences, and with a lot more care when it comes to low-income and non-checking account holders, when we used to have every current credit card growth. So we are growing quite well in high income and we are growing now with the adequate lower risk segments. And thank you for the question.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Thank you. Next question from Brian Flores with Citibank. Brian, thank you for the opportunity.

Brian Flores

Analyst

Noronha, Andre and Cassiano. Noronha, you mentioned something interesting. We are kind of doing the math here. Sometimes we tend to focus a lot on assets, but in liabilities, we can see that the cost of deposits is improving as a percentage of CDI. So my question is, what are the measures you're taking there? Could you perhaps give us more color on the competitive landscape in this segment and what should be the trend looking forward? Thank you.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Brian. Cassiano?

Cassiano Scarpelli

Analyst

It's a pleasure to see you. What we have adopted some measures focused mainly on our commercial action. We have been doing important work in the part of middle market with our cash and the commercial evolution. And that's an important piece of data. And also our CRM and all of the work that we are doing in terms of working with the database. Our data scientists have helped us a lot in terms of low and mid-income clients, deposits, savings that grew again this quarter together with the time deposits where we have a CDB in our CDB that remunerates the balance of our general clients. So these three components, better optimization of costs and long-term funding costs for companies that gave us a much better balance in terms of cash and liquidity and that brought very interesting gains in our cost of funding. So this principality, this commercial action that Marcelo so well spoke about in the presentation to be focused on the client, close to the clients. It's not just the physical contact face-to-face, it's also the app contact. As Marcelo mentioned, we now have a new app, a new functionality, a new concept. So this concept of presenting proposals, presenting opportunities, this has brought us great results. And in terms of investments, the specialists that Marcelo spoke about, it's not just cash. It's also the assets part that is evolving a lot this quarter. So this is the components. We are focused on the assets line item, yes, but the liabilities line item is also important for our comeback story in profitability.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Brian, let me just add to this. We're talking about growing NII, client NII, and NIM. We're talking about growth and fee and commission income growing and also controlling liabilities. That's the result of commercial activity, mobilization, capacity and penetration that we have in our client base of different segments. We're talking about high income, retail, bank, wholesale bank, mass market, SMEs and so on and so forth. So thank you for the question.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Thank you. Next question from [Daniel Weiss from Safra Bank] (ph).

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning, Andre, Marcelo and Cassiano. Congratulations on the results. I would like to refer to Change the Bank. I mean, I know you accelerated the footprint, 411 movements this quarter, and even then we see the client line growing and the individuals' segment is growing. So, can you tell me about this migration of clients, pains and learnings? What is your actual pace? Would you like to accelerate the pace or maybe step on the brake a little? Just let me know a little bit about the way you were serving clients today.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Well, thank you for your question. It's just natural that the main concern of the bank is with our client base. All the compensations that you can offer, you know, comparing, you know, talking about this pre-transformation or transferring them to another unit or a digital unit. We're doing that very carefully. But with great discipline, we were able to deliver more than what we expected to see for this period. So as we are being successful in this evolution, we will continue to move in that pace. But we will increasingly use intelligence, dedicated teams, proper studies, in order to minimize any impact to our client base. That's why I mentioned the numbers related to the base growth. Part of it comes from current accounts too. But so we are focusing on growing without losing quality but at the same time we want to increase our operating efficiency that also goes through Bradesco Expresso, something I mentioned during my presentation. I don't know whether Andre or Cassiano have anything else to add. I think you said it all. I believe that the experience that we were able -- we were translating that changed the bank translates what we did. That's an important learning. You asked about our lessons learned. If, you know, we translate our desire to be a lateral bank, this has been translated into all of these good news and client principality. Client is at the core of everything you do. All of the movements we did in a very assertive way, we did that preserving that principality. So we went to increase credit to use more of our digital for 66% of our account holders use the digital channels. So the experience of our app has been very good and the main lesson learned comes from the entire leadership of the bank. The entire bank understands the need and the capacity we have to do more. And this is a very important commercial activity. And so in summary, this depicts the movement that right now is very strong and we can certainly do the same thing at the same speed next half year and next year. The other aspect is that the service point of the future will not necessarily be like the one we have today, 122 points that we inaugurated. We are removing from the traditional branch the people that serve companies with earnings up to BRL50 million. And now they are much more focused and they work with a more agile operating system with credit experts that sit with companies and help them make more efficient decisions. So we transformed that service point into something more objective and with higher productivity. Thank you, Daniel.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Next question from Yuri Fernandes from JP Morgan. Yuri?

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

Hi, Andre. Thank you, Noronha and Cassiano. Congrats on your results. My question is related to margins, the spread itself. Client NII, there was an inflection, about 10 bps, I think everybody was expecting that. My question relates to the speed of it. You talked about SMEs, but My question is whether this SME mix is the mix from very small SMEs. I mean, there were rural working capital was weak. So my question about spread, you think that you would go back to that 9.7% or 10 % that you had in the past, but at what speed your margin will be resumed and whether the mix of that SME improvement will be good enough to help you accelerate your return. And the second question is about more structural cost of risk when compared to your historical numbers. You said that everything is improving, the vintages are improving, but cost of credit is still much higher. I mean there were some things in terms of impairment, reversal, when you look at the overall picture. But my question is, when you look back, do you think that Bradesco could resume the cost of risk that you had in the past or not, or maybe things are different? I mean, you will focus more on high income. Looking ahead the next two years or three years, what do you see in terms of cost of credit? And again, congratulations on the results.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Yuri. Well, I will start with my initial manifesto with the loss of JP, of -- the death of the head of JP Morgan. My condolences go to his family and to all of the people at JP Morgan with Darahem's recent loss. In terms of cost of credit, this is our expectation. Go back to the previous numbers in a timeline. Obviously, this will have to mind the mix. Given the mix and another mix, this is fit into what we saw in the past. Now, as for spreads and growth curve, this also follows the risk appetite and the mix that we capture because if we expand the capture of payroll loan, I mean those four lines, because when I refer to the payroll loan, there are four lines, and certainly, you go back to a higher spread, but we want to have a mix with a higher remuneration. And that is in-line with what you said, but with no very specific guidance to get there, but in fact delivering better results in the combination of the many lines that we have here. So this is what we expect to see.

Cassiano Scarpelli

Analyst

And now, you know, my colleagues can add to what I said if they want. Yuri, I just have an additional comment. Our cost of credit in the second half was 3.2%, which is very close to what it was in the past, meaning that the main ROE driver this year comes from this reduction in the cost of credit, but going forward maybe the main ROE driver will be more towards revenues.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Next question from Tito Labarta. Tito, the floor is yours.

Tito Labarta

Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. Thank you for the call and taking my questions. Two questions also. Can, first on fees in the quarter, fees were, you know, fairly healthy this quarter, particularly loan fees and asset management fees, but also capital market fees jumped quite a bit. Just how do you think about the sustainability of this and the ability to really feed them, particularly, I guess, to highlight that may have been extraordinary or difficult to sustain for the rest of the year. And then second question on expenses, you know, operating, I guess, personnel and admin, you know, holding up, you know, pretty much roughly in line with inflation, but a big jump in the other particularly within the other long. If you could just give some more color on that and what drove the increase there on those other expenses. Thank you.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Thank you, Tito. The fees that you mentioned, Tito, had a good performance, like I said during the presentation. We have been delivering this result in a sustainable way. It's recurring. I actually used this word in terms of fees and commissions income. The one that grew the least was credit cards, payments. Of course, capital markets, for example, and you know how the equity market is behaving. It's kind of slow, and this is an important item for the capital markets. And of course, there is an oscillation, a fluctuation, greater fluctuation coming from IB, Global market that make up the capital, the market capital-line depends a lot on the number of transactions and capital inflows and outflows. So there was a more significant variation. But regarding the other revenues, we are growing quite well and in a recurring fashion. This is our expectation to continue to grow fee and commissions income better than in prior periods. Regarding personnel expenses, I'll ask our CFO, Cassiano to answer.

Cassiano Scarpelli

Analyst

Good morning Tito and thank you for the question. As regards personnel and administrative expenses, as Marcelo mentioned, we have strong control, about 4.5% increase, And it's a totally different period because that takes into account the collective bargaining agreement of 2023 now and 2024. So we are very much focused on controlling expenses. The main difference comes from the other operating revenues and expenses. We had a baseline deviation last year. We had some reversals, gains of some specific claims that caused a reversal in the past. So the baseline this year, it's kind of a difficult comparison for this indicator. And Marcelo mentioned something important that I would like to stress here. When we look at the 7.3 indicator consolidated for Bradesco And when we exclude the companies of EloPar and Cielo, we get to 6.2% within our guidance. We continue to be very focused on that, considering the whole transformation that is happening. And also in terms of personnel, we're still hiring people, we're hiring people for the technology department, we're hiring for credit, for investments, for loan products, and we're hiring a lot of data scientists. Still, we were able to balance the result with the adjustment of our footprint. So I think that expenses are under control and they should bring us a positive bottom-line for us. Thank you, Tito.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Next question from Mario Pierry with Bank of America.

Mario Pierry

Analyst

Good morning. Congratulations on the results. A number of positive trends this quarter. I would like to focus more in the long term. When I look at your efficiency ratio that is improving, it's still very high, close to 52%. So, Noronha, when you mentioned your strategic plan for the next five years, you never mentioned numbers. So, I'd like you to focus on this. How do you see the evolution of the efficiency ratio and where do you want to be in five years regarding this ratio? My second question is a brief one. I'd like to understand the impact of the BRL depreciation in the growth of credit this quarter.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

All right. I will ask -- well, thank you for both questions, Mario. And actually, I mentioned the number expected for the next periods until 2028 and Cassiano was kind of answering regarding the expenses. So I'll ask Cassiano to more directly answer your question.

Cassiano Scarpelli

Analyst

Hello, Mario. Thank you for the question. Our operating efficiency ratio is exactly where we want it to be. It has an initial increase, which is natural given the investments and the transformation expenses, although we are controlling the personal line. So it has a higher curve. And as Marcelo mentioned, at the end of the project, we wanted to be close to 40%. That's our target, more towards the end of 2027, 2028. We understand that in the second half of 2025 and in the year of 2026, we'll be able to improve the efficiency ratio, bringing it down. The most important thing is that we are in this ascending curve, which was defined, designed, studied and ratified. And then it will start descending in 2025 or 2026, so we'll land at around 40% by 2028. So we are very pleased because we are following the plan that we have in the transformation project.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Cassiano. But you see, Mario, when he says he's pleased, he's momentarily pleased. Whenever pleased with a 52% operating ratio. I want to stress that we will pursue this indicator, which is again not now, it will not be at the end, it will be in the process. And as regards the foreign exchange variation, Well, it basically hits the wholesale portfolio. We didn't have anything relevant in the micro, small and mid-sized enterprises and the individuals portfolio. But to remind you that we produced a lot in trade finance during this period. So the variation is not just based on what we are carrying, but based on what we originated. And Setting aside the wholesale portfolio, looking at SMEs and micro-companies and individuals, I think we're doing quite well. So I just wanted to point that out. Thank you, Mario.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Next question from Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA. Can you hear us?

Pedro Leduc

Analyst

Yes, yes, I can. Thank you, Andrea, Noronha, and Cristiano. Congratulations on the results. I just have a quick follow-up in terms of client NII. There was a very nice growth in the quarter. But you talked a lot about the mix. We see also a lot of spread. And looking at the rates at the end, it's hard to identify that spreads were going up, which led us to understand that there was a component of funding mix that was quite relevant. Can you please help us understand what led you to that 246 basis points of spread increase so that will allow us to see where the adjustment is so we can make calibrations for the second quarter. My second question is about health insurance. We see increase in technical provisions and whether that could be like a pent-up profit for the second half because I know that you are becoming more strict with the providers.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Pedro, thank you for your questions. It's a pleasure to see you again, you and your colleagues. So let's start with the second question. I would also like to ask Ivan to join us. Ivan, would you like to comment on the second question?

Ivan Gontijo

Analyst

Hi, Marcelo. Yes. Growth reflects, Pedro, the growth of our portfolio. Efficiency and the financial discipline of our healthcare companies, they reflect the good moment that we are experiencing in the post-pandemic period. So that the increase in number of clients and a perspective view in terms of giving a higher degree of comfort to our clients is what allowed us to... I think the connection is poor and the image was frozen.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

So Ivan will come back soon to finish answering the question, but Andre maybe you can answer the first question.

Ivan Gontijo

Analyst

Client NII, that's a very good point you mentioned. Client NII involves three main drivers. Number one, portfolio growth. Portfolio growth brings increased client NII. So the growth of our portfolio is a good part of that explanation. The second part that is related to spread, and you noted that quite well, there was a slight growth in client NII spread. It's still very moderate. It's just an inflection point. It's the beginning of a more robust and relevant improve going forward. So I would like to explain the lower part of growth with client NII. And there is a third part, which is what Marcelo, Cassiano was explaining, and this is related to the liability management, client funding. We are being more efficient in terms of dealing with -- funding from client. We are giving better results and we are working better with our mix, and this lowers our funding costs. The combination of these three things is what allows us to recover at client NII. And as Marcelo was saying, we already threw up many seeds that will allow us to say that we will have a better third quarter when compared to the second quarter. I mean certainly you saw the growth of the portfolio with this mix. It's not a big spike in terms of the client NII, but it will show gradual growth. We will have an even better performance in the third quarter. I think Ivan has joined us again. Ivan is back.

Ivan Gontijo

Analyst

Hi, Marcelo. Thank you. I would just like to say that we had an operating increased performance of Bradesco Seguros, in that healthcare segment and this obviously puts us in a comfortable position in terms of the investment we've made in the value chain of the healthcare segment. We do believe in this market and we are very comfortable and we have a very positive perspective view. And I think I – I hope I answered your question and I'm available further on if you need any further clarification. Thank you. Thank you, Pedro, for the question.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

And then the next question from Eduardo Nishio from Genial.

Eduardo Nishio

Analyst

Good morning, Andre, Cassiano. Good morning, Noronha. Congratulations on the results. I have two questions. The first is about your new client platform that you were launching. Could you give me more details about the platform? How do you intend to reduce the cost to serve? I don't know whether that will be only through the reduction in the footprint of the branches or you're contemplating other initiatives that will lower the cost to serve. The second question is simpler. You talked about implicit profit. I think analysts have their own calculation on the side. But if you could share with us the members that you have in mind, the numbers you use. I think through my calculations is $18 billion. I just want to make sure whether that number is correct.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Thank you, Nishio. In terms of our client platform, we have plans that converge here. One is the positioning of Bradesco Expresso, because this lead us to a reduction in the cost of serve of Espresso. But this is combined with that strategy to be present in the physical world with a variable cost. This is our expectation. But we have other initiatives, not only the reduction of the footprint, because we want that unit cost of serve reaches a different level with time. But we are still working with Tulio's team and other teams from the different areas of the bank to take that to market when the right time comes. So thank you for that first part. And now I'll turn the floor over to Cassiano to answer your second question.

Cassiano Scarpelli

Analyst

Hi, Nishio, and thank you again for your question. Well, we usually don't give guidance in this regard, but it seems that the market consensus is quite adequate, BRL17.5 billion or BRL18.5 billion, So that range seems to be quite adequate. Okay. I mean, that's very close to your number. Your number was, you know, right on the spot. Thank you, Nishio.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Next question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Thank you for taking my time. Two questions. One, client NII. I wanted to go back to market NIA. In the past, the Bank has taken positions for long, short-term and short-term interest rates. How would you say the balance sheet is positioned today and what would be beneficial for the short term? And in the second question, the one that Andre likes, we see that the Bradesco is gaining momentum at an inflection point, as you mentioned. And what about Brazil? Do you see that demand is getting stronger, weaker? What is your assessment of the current investment? We have a lot of negativity in the market. You are also cautious. Thank you.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Okay. Carlos, thank you for the questions. I'll ask Cassiano to start asking about Market NII.

Cassiano Scarpelli

Analyst

Hi, Carlos. Thank you for the question. Good to see you. Well, in this quarter, we had a reduction in market NII, and this had basically an effect on the trading. The ALM is very balanced. Our prefixed future portfolio is in good order together with our liabilities that are increasing. That is a natural hedging cycle. There's no other type of specific movement. So it's very well balanced. Obviously we don't expect any strong and fast interest rate increases. It happened in the recent past. We're working with market expectations. If everything is okay, we'll have a healthy ALM in the second half of 2024 and most likely in the start of 2025. Nothing to really add, but Carlos, our expectation is what Cassiano mentioned. We expect to have two quarters better than the one we've just seen. That's our expectation in terms of market NII. Andre, you could answer Carlos' second question about the macroeconomic situation in the NLT.

Andre Rodrigues Cano

Analyst

Okay, so what we have seen so far is the strong increase in the macro uncertainties, the macro risk, and this is affecting a lot of financial assets but not so much the real activity. Our economist had a slight revision in terms of GDP growth expectation. It was around 2.3% with a possibility of being something better than that. So 2024 is a year that has been very little affected in terms of economic activity, not very much impacted by the macro risks that are impacting the assets. If that uncertainty continues, well, the [SILICA] (ph) interest rate will remain stagnant for longer. Our economist team expects the silica rate to be at 10.5% at least until the end of 2025 and of course that removes vigor from the economy. But basically in 2025 if the economy is not vigorous that's not good for the banks, it's not good for those that rely on domestic activity. But we have to deal with this, just like all companies, and we'll take our internal measures to increase efficiency, trying to offset this effect which is not under our control.

Marcelo Noronha

Management

Well, I second everything that Andrea mentioned, Carlos. In terms of the outlook, we had an initial outlook of the GDP growing 2.5%. It was reviewed to 2.3%. It is good growth, in our opinion, for 2024. We have a very low unemployment level. And I know that this has a consequence in the monetary policy, we are following up close exchange rate because that can have an impact on inflation, which is not good. It's bad for us if we have a potential increase in the interest rates. But with this potential reduction of the interest rates in the US Market, it's possible we'll see a reversion of that. We'll have to monitor. We'll have to follow that. But as Andre mentioned, for next year, the growth expectation changes. If we maintain the interest rates, that's okay. And then we'll have a lower potential activity in 2025. In terms of risk appetite, we are always with our eyes open when monitoring them step by step. And if it's necessary to change the appetite of the bank, we'll do it.

Andre Carvalho

Analyst

Thank you, Carlos. Okay, we are now closing the Q&A session. Those questions we were not able to answer here will be answered by our investor relations team. Before I turn the floor to Marcelo to his final statements, I'd like to remind you that in our investor relations website, you can find the presentation that was presented here and a lot of support materials. Marcelo, go ahead. Thank you, Andrea. Thank you, Cassiano. Thank you to all of you who joined us. I'd like to thank the sell-side team that asked questions. Thank you very much for your interest in our bank. Thank you for your questions. Thank you to the investors that follow us, to our clients. I'd like to stress we're always here available to have meetings with investors, with the sell side team, to explain any line of the balance sheet you're interested in. But I share with you a positive outlook. Thank you very much and have a great and blessed week. Thank you.