Ian Fowler
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead
Thanks, Eric and good morning. Recall that BBDC is managed by Barings LLC, a credit-focused asset manager with more than $300 billion of assets under management. The bulk of the portfolio is sourced from the Global Private Finance team. An organization with more than 100 investment professionals located around the globe, providing financing solutions to preeminent middle market companies sponsored by private equity firms. BBDC’s portfolio decreased by $51 million on a net basis in the quarter, with gross fundings of $192 million, offset by $244 million of repayments and sales which included approximately $50 million of sales to our Jocassee joint venture. Activity during the fourth quarter continued to be tempered as private equity buyers take a pause in the rising rate environment which we believe has a meaningful impact on enterprise valuations. Based on recent conversations, investment bankers who serve as the tip of the spear have reiterated their expectation that LBO activity is expected to meaningfully increase in the quarters to come. With that said, the messaging has been consistent for the past 12 months as more and more opportunities are being added to the backlog, but the dam has not yet broken. Consistent with the prior two quarters, we have seen an increase in the number of early-stage opportunities within the platform, but unfortunately, conversion rates to close deals are trending towards historic lows. Sponsors continue to execute on add-ons for companies already within their portfolios, which makes sense as add-on multiples are below original platform purchase price in effect, enabling sponsors to reduce their cost bases and hedge against any compression and exit multiples. Investors in Barings BDC benefit by having a seasoned portfolio that provides opportunities to deploy capital in two issuers, we already know well. Refinancing activity has started to increase as performing issuers have plentiful access to capital without the need to sell. There is a logical reason to believe transaction volumes improve in the months to come, namely a record backlog of sell-side mandates among the investment banking community and a need for private equity managers to show distributions to their LPs. Counter to those facts is a high level of uncertainty created by two arm conflicts, persistently high inflation, rapid increase in interest rates in the forthcoming political cycle. When opportunities ultimately do convert into an increase in closed transactions, we will continue to use our disciplined underwriting strategy to invest capital in the most compelling opportunities. Turning to our current portfolio. 74% consists of secured investments, with approximately 67% of investments constituting first-lien securities. Interest coverage within the portfolio stood at 2.2 times, modest decline from 2.3 times a quarter earlier. We are forecasting that a steady-state weighted average interest coverage for the portfolio will ultimately fall between 2 and 2.25 times as the full impact of higher rates is reflected in issuer’s financials and performance. Our avoidance of various industries prone to economic volatility, oil and gas, restaurants, retail, metals, among them, has proven to be a sound strategy against a backdrop of less economic predictability. One of the benefits to a predominantly sponsor-backed strategy has proven out over the past several quarters. Combined with what we believe were reasonable going in leverage multiples, the median gross margin in the North American Global Private Finance portfolio, a portfolio similar to BBDC stood at 49%, up from 45%, one year earlier and gives us confidence that our issuers are successfully pushing through price increases to combat inflationary pressures in their businesses. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the same sample set were 22%, up from 21% in prior year’s period, believed to be a reflection of the fact that wage gains have consumed some degree of gross margin expansion previously noted. While not perfectly comparable metric period-to-period as the volume of transaction activity in the past five quarters will skew these metrics somewhat, we believe we have reason to feel comfortable with the performance of the portfolio. The portfolio composition remains highly diversified with the top 10 issuers accounting for 20.1% of fair market value. Recall that the two top positions within the portfolio, Eclipse Business Capital and Rocade Holdings, our platform investments originating middle-market loans. These positions have a number of underlying issuers. Assets included in the other classification include structured positions and certain acquired positions that will not be originated on a new basis going forward. As Eric highlighted, we anticipate rotating of these positions as market conditions allow in the quarters to come. Risk ratings exhibited minimal movement during the quarter as issuers exhibiting the most stress classified as risk ratings 4 and 5 were 7% on a combined basis quarter-over-quarter. We anticipate this figure to decline when rolling to the first quarter in light of public developments with one of our issuers, Core Scientific, as Eric mentioned. Encouragingly, we also experienced some positive movement at certain issuers performing consistent with expectations at underwriting have outperformed during the fourth quarter. We remain confident in the credit quality of the underlying portfolio, the uncorrelated nature and associated value of investments in Eclipse and Rocade should bolster the portfolio in the event the economy enters into a long expected recession. BBDC is committed to delivering an attractive risk-adjusted return to shareholders over a long time horizon. We are investors of credit and middle-market companies. Our global reach and significant scale across asset classes gives BBDC a unique ability to select risk and return compared to other managers, but our core middle market credit is what we do. I’ll now turn the call over to Elizabeth.