Leandro Miranda
Analyst · Scotiabank
Thank you, Firetti. Thank you all once again for taking part in our earnings conference call. The third Q earnings reflect the current economic moments in a market that goes through cycles. We have to reverse at various points in the credit cycle. When the pandemic began bringing longer known threats and expectation of a worsening economy, we made significant credit provisions. As the economy improved in 2021 and the beginning of 2022, we were able to release part of the excess provisions, especially in the medium large companies industry. Right now, we are moving to a cycle of increasing provisions that is expected to continue throughout 2023 due to the loans that have been granted in the mass market. We are now at full speed into reforming the bank. As of today, we are undoubtedly one of the largest Digital Bank in Brazil, while maintaining the greatest physical presence among the peers. We transformed our way of serving clients according to their preferences and needs. Customer centricity is behind our motto, between us, you always come first. We hold that unique positioning with the largest investor insurance company in Brazil, and in Latin America, I capillarity that unites the physical and the digital, certainly define us financial products offering Brazil from individuals to corporates. As you know with Bradesco has extensive operations, serving all segments of clients, either individuals or companies and that came all over Brazil. As a result of the strategy with a broad position in the market, our activities in loans and banking are correlated with the performance of the Brazilian economy and disposable income. The economic scenario, high inflation and interest rates lead to a deterioration in the client's payment capacity, and the constant increase in non-performing loans make unnecessary great provision expenses above our initial expectations. The delinquencies ratio grew in the low income mass market segment for individuals in migrant small companies. Observing the delinquencies use of recent harvest, which already indicate improvements in all the adjustments we made in 2022 we projected the link which should stabilize and improve in the course of 2023. In the last two quarters, we have made provisions of both the NPL formation, which should continue into the 4Q 2022. The brisk hike in the SELIC versus the natural speed of renew in our prefitted loan portfolio has also affect the results of the market NII. As we point out in the previous quarter, this effect will probably continue in the fourth Q and throughout the first six months of 2023. Our profits is expected to remain under pressure for a few quarters, but they should change more consistently in the second half of 2023. We believe that the bank will continue to be able to operate with an improved level of return. We will pursue this and continue making the needed adjustments return to the level of profitability. The drivers of our recovering the performance includes, improved delinquency ratio, which should pick between first quarter '23 and second quarter '23 and improve thereafter, which will allow us for a gradual reduction in credit provisions. A significant improvement in market NII mean from the second half of 2023; the evolution of the income from insurance group; maintaining a strict cost control and the contiguity of the good results in the wholesale bank with a high return level and that even record the lowest historical delinquency rates over 90 days. With respect to this quarter earnings, we saw a drop in a recurring net income of 25.8% compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to credit provision expenses, market NII, and income from insurance. The loan portfolio rose by 13.6% in an annual comparison, which association -- was associated with original mix, benefits the client NII, which will 24.7% over the same periods. Finally, we'll close it out the quarter with a 13.6% Tier 1 capital a level that points to the strength of our balance sheets. Now we move to Slide 3, we compare the net income accumulated over the first nine months of the year, with the same period from last year. The main items that made a positive contribution to the profit were client NII, which presents an increase of BRL9.5 billion is reflecting the growth in the loan portfolio and spreads in addition to the origination mix, that has been more concentrated in the short term lines that have higher margins. Income from insurance, which grew BRL2.5 billion realize benefit by higher premiums and increased financial income despite the increase in the claims ratio. We also have two items that reduced profits by nearly the same magnitudes. Market NII, which posted a reduction of BRL6.8 billion as a result of the impact of the accelerated increase in high level managers of the Selic rate on our ALM and BRL6.6 billion higher credit provisions reflecting the portfolio growth origination mix and increase in delinquency. This amount includes BRL1 billion that we made make as a supplementary provision this quarter. Now we turn to Slide 4, let's talk about loan portfolio which grew 2.7% compared to the previous quarter, and 13.6% compared to last year. Origination for individuals is 10% lower than last year, but with the superior credit quality. The adjustment was made mainly to the low-income mass markets, which presents more credit risk as we restricted the criteria for approval, given the scenario for high delinquents. An example of this is that today, we approved 48% of credit proposals compared to 58% a year ago, and 68% to the pre-pandemic period in 2019. The 38.8% growth in credit card reflects the increased penetration of cards among our high-income clients. In addition to the increase in average expenses after the pandemic and inflation over the periods. Here we are also very restricted with the low income segments. In equity credit the 3.5% surge is due to our focus on agribusiness through our 14 agro platforms. The crop year began over this third quarter and this portfolio should expand even further. The renegotiated portfolio remained stable as a proportion of the loan portfolio. Turning now to Slide 5, as we said, the delinquencies over 90 days was affected by the economic cycle. The ratio group 0.4 percentage points with an increased concentrating the mass market declines individuals in microns small companies, segments that were most affected by inflation. The order delinquencies has remained stable for two quarters, reflecting the adjustments we made in origination. This quarter, the gross credit provision was once again higher than the NPL for nation and as a result, the cost of risk reached 3.3%. The coverage ratio for the NPL 90 days remains at very strong level of 201%. Now we go to Slide 6, to talk about NII. Overall NII has risen by 5.7% in accumulated nine month. Client NII continues to expand, benefiting from portfolio growth and favorable spreads, given the product mix, in addition to the positive impact on the deposit margins, due to the increase in the Selic rates, the increase over the year is 23.4%. The chart at the bottom of this slide, we highlight the client NII net of credit provision, which is 10% higher compared to 2021 and 25%, higher than what we had in 2019 pre-COVID. Client's NIM also continues to evolve, up 10 bps in the quarter while the net NIM impacted by the higher provisioning post the reduction. In market NII, the ALM portion continues under pressure, we can say that the performance in the fourth quarter should be better than the third quarter. Although is still negative. The recovery of this line should be gradual, during 2023, with the second half better than the first one, considering the current expectations of interest rates in portfolio with rising. Now let's move to Slide 7. Let's talk about Insurance Group results. Accumulated net income expanded by more than 28% with a major contribution from the operating results, which offset the financial results influenced by the dynamics or the financial indexes. We highlight the growth in revenues across all business lines 18.9% in the third Q, and 17% higher in the year overall. Therefore, the income from insurance our guidance continues with a very positive performance growing 32% in the year with an emphasis on operational performance. The volume of claims directly related to COVID in the third Q reach a BRL209 million, the lowest in the series in BRL1.1 billion in the year around 73% less as in the same fear last year. Our loss ratio is already showing a reduction from the previous quarter and from the third Q '21. The Insurance Group continues to grow and improve its operating performance, with an expansion the number of insurance clients and items thus reinforcing our strategy and confidence in the segments. Turning now to Slide 8. Fees grew 4.8% for the year, card income increased by 3.8% in the quarterly comparison and 22.2% for the years. That reflective volume has demonstrated a progressive growth and it's worth mentioning we have increased our base specially in the high income segments which reaches 39% share, a group with lower risk and higher return. We reached it 76.8 million clients mainly a growth of 4.3 million clients which contributed to maintain the level in the checking account line offset the substantial part of the drop in revenue from service packages and from the use of peaks. Continuing the service items is Slide 9 outlines our performance and growth in the private banking segments. We are currently the second largest private bank in Brazil, with around 22% share in the local market and a multiple growth in recent years. Since 2019, we have grown the volume of managers resources by 52%, arriving at $308 9 billion. We have also continued to advance our specialization and increase our bankers and consultants seem with a solid value proposition, which was reformatted with acquisition of our Bitz Bank, formerly Bradesco Bank Florida. We will continue on with our strategy of observing acquisition opportunities in signing agreements in partnerships, such as those with JPMorgan, BNP Paribhas an Independent Wealth Management we both benefit, with a view towards increasing our share in the industry by providing the best offer to our clients. We will now take a look at Slide 10. Operating expenses posted a 4.6% growth in the year, a mark below inflation for the periods. IPCA at 7.2% and GPM at 8.3% The personal lines grew by 11.6% impacted by the collective bargaining agreements of '21 and '22. We also continue to invest in enforcing and improving our investment advisory technology, data science teams in an effort to enhance our processes and provide a better experience for our clients. We continue our focus on optimizing the physical presence and investments in digitalization of client services. These actions and trench have helped it to contain the increase in the administrative expenses at 6.2% for the year. Bradesco Expresso, our banking correspondents network complements our physical presence with great clarity and convenience for customers in a structured based on variable costs. We will now discuss capital and liquidity on Slide 11. Profit generation and positive mark the market on security over the quarter more than offset the distribution the form of interest on shareholders equity, and the consumption by weight of assets, increasing our Tier 1 capital by 30 bps, which continues in a very strong level. Our estimates for the fourth quarter suggests that we will finish the year with a level closer to the current one, even with the impact of nearly 40 bps in December with the completion of the application of the rule for handling tax credits originating from the heads of investments abroad. We closed out the quarter with a high level of LCR. Turning now to Slide 12. Making sure our clients digital experience is always improving. We are committed to keeping them at the heart of our decisions. This is a strategy that provides increased autonomy and a better experience for them and results in a lot more business. Currently, 71% of our account holders are now digital, in 98% of all transactions take place via digital channels. In an annual comparison, the opening of accounts directly through the app grew by 62% for individuals and by 66% for micro entrepreneurs. The frequent upgrades that we performing app which introduce new features and experiences based on data and aligning with the needs of our clients has been an enormous success with clients evidenced by the 90% level of overall satisfaction with our -- at with official stores NPS. Turning now to Slide 13, with respect to the sustainable business agenda, we remain committed to carrying out our activities with a positive social environment impacts and we have already achieved 63% of the growth. We have over 20 products that boast social environmental benefits in our portfolio, and two solutions should be highlighted for the group within the last few years. First of all financing for the purchase of solar panels, which reaches BRL1.2 billion and financing for hybrid and electric vehicles which rose 4.5 times. For environmental issues, we'd like to point out the importance of our historical partnership with the [Indiscernible] Foundation, an initiatives that we are proud of. We have supported SLS since 1989 and over 34 million native trees have been planted in line Brazilian states over the spirits. And finally at this On the 27th UN Conference on Climate Change is taking place in Egypt, which we are participating in. We include the climate agenda, and the sustainability strategy and follow all major trends to ensure that Bradesco is maintaining its pioneering spirits in reserve significant and relevant issue. We now move on to Slide 14. Our last slide today. Considering our performance to the third Quarter, we believe that we'll be able to lower part of the range for loan growth and fees. At the top of the range for costs, insurance and client NII. With regards to credit provisions, we decided to revise the guidance. According to our projections, the credit provisions for 2022 will be in the range from $25.5 billion to $27.5 billion revised. This performance reflects the points recovered on the credit cycle in the mass markets, despite a further strong performance in loan quality and wholesale markets. On market NII as we mentioned earlier, we should return to positive levels in 2023. In the fourth quarter, this line shall remain negative, but better than the level of the third quarter. Thank you very much for attention. And now we will begin the Q&A session.