Luiz Carlos Angelotti
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking part into this fourth quarter 2013 conference call. Now please turn to Slide 2. Slide 2 shows the highlights for the period. Adjusted net income, which amounted to BRL 12,202,000,000. In 2013, 5.9% year-over-year, with ROE of 18%. Fourth quarter net income amounted to BRL 3,199,000,000, 3.8% growth quarter-over-quarter. Our insurance operation, which is one of the pillars of our business, has also performed well, with a net income of BRL 3,740,000,000 in 2013 and more than BRL 1 billion in the fourth quarter into premium growth, reinforcing the excellent prospects for this business. Our net credit margin went up by 12.9% in 2013, mainly impacted by the decline in delinquency costs, underlining the [indiscernible] quality of our loan portfolio. The delinquency ratio over 90 days continued to decline, falling by an additional 10 [ph] basis points quarter-over-quarter and 60 basis points year-over-year, reaching at 3.5%, at the lowest point in the last 5 years. We believe this ratio is becoming stable at this lower level. Our coverage ratio for overdue loans remained robust, reaching 192.3%, for the loans overdue by more than 90 days, demonstrating the soundness of our financial position. Fee income was up by 13% in 2013, while our OpEx went up by 5.6%. It will be [indiscernible] for this period. It is also worth noting that the performance of both lines is reaching our expectations. This mix of constant investment and fixed cost [indiscernible] led to an operating coverage ratio of 71.8%, resulting in the highest level of efficiency for the last 5 years. Total assets amount to over BRL 908 billion, and our expendable portfolio amounted to over BRL 427 billion. Slide 3 shows the reconciliation between our book net income and adjusted net income. In this quarter, the main nonrecurring items were the net effect of tax payments to the tax recovery program that is amounting to BRL 1,950,000,000. Second, the recording of tax credits arising from tax investments amounting to BRL 462 million. Third, the net reversal of -- partly of the technical reserves on the rule [ph] issued by SUSEP, determining the use of [indiscernible] rates, as [indiscernible] rates for actuarial liabilities totaling BRL 2,572,000,000. And fourth, BRL 6,117,000,000 for the adjustments to the rates at the market value of our NTNs portfolio. Part of this amount connects to the reversal of technical business that I mentioned before. And finally, the recognition of impairment loss, amounting to BRL 739 million, with BRL 682 million, of which, from assisting the historical value of shares to the fair value. Adjusting for EBIT, our net income for the quarter rose to BRL 3,199,000,000. Our annual net income increased to BRL 12,202,000,000 despite these nonrecurring events not having a significant negative effect on our results for the quarter and the year. They did cause a major growth in our shareholders' package supporting our Basel III implementation and will result in the increasing of the future interest income from our NTNs that's now out at the market rates. Also on this slide, you can see a return on average assets which came to 18% in 2013. On Slide 4, you can see that income growth in the fourth quarter was mainly drive by higher net interest income from the book and non-interest and interest-earning operations and the increased fee income, partially impacted by the collective bargaining agreement, which is reflected in personnel expense and with the seasonal upturn in administrative expenses, mainly coming from advertising expense. Year-over-year, we have seen that the additional income growth moved up by BRL 679 million or 5.9%, basically due to first, the higher fee income as a result of increasing of the foreign operations, mainly skewed by the extension of the client base and the customer service channels; and second, the use of delinquents; third, the strong cost controls with OpEx growth below inflation. And the fourth, the good performance of the insurance business. The earnings per share increased by 6.2% year-over-year from BRL 2.7 to BRL 2.9. Slide 5. Turning -- in Slide 5, you can see the breakdown of our net income. In the quarter, it is worth noting the expenditure of insurance operation due to the strong revenue growth, mainly in life and pension plan business. Year-over-year, I will highlight the expenditure of loan operations and fees, boosted by the decline in delinquency and larger customer and credit card base, as well as the expansion of the customer service channels, which helped push up the transaction volume. The reduced share of securities operations in both periods was driven by lower arbitrage gains as a result of market volatility. Please turn to Slide 6. Our 12 month efficiency ratio remained at 42.1% in the fourth quarter. The increase year-over-year was mainly driven by the drop in the non-interest portion of net interest income, as well as the impact of 2012 and 2013 collective bargaining agreements. The stability in the quarterly efficiency ratio was mainly driven by the performance of fee income and net interest income, both of which moved up by 5% in the period. We set our goal of reaching an efficiency ratio of around 39% by the end of this year. The blue line shows the risk-adjusted efficiency ratio, which stood at 52.1% in the fourth quarter, showing an improvement of 40 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 6 basis points year-over-year, mainly reflected the drop in delinquency. It is also worth noting that our operating coverage ratio on the top line came to 71.8%. This ratio is a measure of our ability to cover operating expenses with fee income as I've already mentioned. Operating coverage ratio rose to its highest point in 5 years. Turning to Slide 7, our realized gains amounted to BRL 13.9 billion in the fourth quarter, BRL 3.8 billion both quarter-over-quarter. The increase was basically driven by the adjustments to reach its market value of our NTN and the appreciation of our investments, especially our shares of [indiscernible], which was up by 9.5% in this quarter. These figures do not include the BRL 5.2 billion related to the potential surplus value of our properties. On Slide 8, you can see the performance of our net interest income from both non-interest- and interest-earning operations. This quarter, we saw increases in the total net interest income, driven by the interest-earning portion, particularly insurance and assembly [ph] margins, basically led by the upturn in business volumes and the growth in average expense, as well as the non-interest-earning portion, which reflected the highest arbitrage gain. On an annual basis, the drop was mainly caused by lower results caused by the non-interest portion. And turning to -- due to reduced arbitrage gains, partially offset by the growth in the interest-earnings portion, mainly loans and funding. The annualized interest margin reached to 7.1% in the fourth quarter, 10 basis points up quarter-over-quarter, mainly impacted by the higher insurance margin. On Slide 9, you can see that in the fourth quarter, the interest-earning portion of net interest income was positively affected in our business lines, especially [indiscernible] due to higher business volumes and the increase in the average spreads, basically reflecting the behavior of both inflation rates. [indiscernible] in the quarter, and second, the funding, mostly driven by the increase of the foreign operations, the expansion of especially [ph] our delinquent higher interest rates. On an annual basis, I'd highlight loan grade insurances [ph], which were positively impacted by upturn in business volumes and also funding, especially due to the field upturn in interest rates. The drop in the securities margin year-over-year was mostly due to reduced gains from the fixed portfolio. Please turn to Slide 10. Quarter-over-quarter, our net debt margin, the blue band of the chart, remained mutually stretched and increased by 12.9% on an annual basis, positively affected by higher business volume and the reduced delinquency cost. The position for loan losses to credit margin ratio showed a slight 70 basis points upturn, mainly due to the increase in provisions for loan loss as a result of certain one-off events. For 2014, we expect the delinquency ratios to stabilize at current lower levels or [indiscernible], giving the downward bias of shorter-term delinquency ratios, thanks to the levels of consistency of our loan rating policies and [indiscernible] obtained, as well as improvements in the loan recovery process. On Slide 11, we show our BIS ratios in line with Basel II for [indiscernible] until September 2013 and Basel III as of December, in accordance with the Brazil São Paulo structure that has been enforced in Brazil since October 1, and which provides for, among other events, the strengthening of the [indiscernible] financial institution. Under this new calculation [indiscernible], our total BIS ratio stood at 16.6% in December, while the common equity and Tier 1 ratio came to 12.3%, remaining at very contractible levels. You can see a simulation of our BIS III ratios on a fully phased-in basis and note that our ratios are robust, therefore, these changes in implementation of the rules will not limit our ability to finance our clients. As the [indiscernible] of our shareholders' efforts and the reduced allocation to market risk both contribute to the improvement of this ratio. In September, our September 13, our BIS III, which [indiscernible] simulation was -- the Tier 1 was 9.3%. Then now we have 10.2%. Turning to Slide 12. As we have already seen, total assets amounted to BRL 908.1 billion. There's a 3.3% increase over -- year-over-year. The result on average assets stood at 1.4%, 10 basis points up quarter-over-quarter, while the additional return on average equity was 18% per year. Slide 13 shows that our extended loan portfolio amounted to BRL 427 billion. As of December 13, 3.6% up in the quarter and 10.8% up on an annual basis, led by loans to micro, small and medium companies, SMEs, which increased by 3.3% quarter-over-quarter and 11.5% year-over-year. The quality of our assets remains the same even after the mentioned loan portfolio growth. In relation to the individual portfolio, the highlights were our [indiscernible] loans, which were mortgage loans, and the excise tax. It is worth noting that if the acquired portfolio and the income portfolio of individuals were left out, the extended loan portfolio would have gone up by 13.6% in the period, reaching to the range of our guidance. Slide 14 shows the delinquency ratios. The delinquency ratio over 90 days fell both on a quarter and an annual basis. The decline was mainly a consequence of first, the continuously improving loan-granting procedures, and second, the increase in [indiscernible] loans and in mortgage loans impacting our loan portfolio mix, mainly in the individual portfolio. And third, the improved credit risk monitoring models. And we highlight the drop in the individual ratio, as well as in the micro, small and medium companies delinquency ratio. There was an increase in the large corporate delinquency ratio, but it was due to certain one-off events and is not indicative of a trend. It is also emphasized that in terms of total delinquents, this is the lowest level in the last 5 years. Keeping the behavior of the 61 to 90 days and the short-term delinquency ratios, we do expect total delinquents ratio to start rising in the coming years, and there's room for improvement. Slide 15 shows that our provisioning ratios remain robust. Assuming the maintenance of 12 months net loss ratios, as of December 2012, we have BRL 12.3 billion of excess provision versus loss net of recoveries, the dotted part purple line. Also worth noting on this slide is the increasing the coverage ratio for loans overdue by 90 and 60 days, reflecting the drop in delinquency. Therefore, we believe that our level of provisioning, in accordance with central banking regulations, is in line with our provisioning and the reassessment policy, showing that we are positioned to handle the impact of any potential downturn. Please turn to Slide 16. The fourth quarter fee income went up by 5% quarter-over-quarter and amounted to BRL 5,227,000,000, mainly because this quarter was not [indiscernible] for underwriting and the financial advisory and loans operations and consortium and card use. On an annual basis, income increased by 13%, led by operations such as a cards, consortium and checking accounts. It is important to mention that our continuous investments in technology and the organic growth has led to increasing our adjustment and credit card base, in turn, generating a continuous upturn in transactions' volumes and consequences in fee income. Slide 17 shows that operating expense for 2013 were up 4.6%, meeting our expectation and below the 12 months [indiscernible] inflation rates. We've reached 5.9% and a 5.5%. The increase was mainly due to payroll expenses arising from 2012 and 2013 collective bargaining agreements with [indiscernible] which is up 7.5% and 8%, respectively. And to administrative expense, which only moved up by slightly 2.5%, despite the increase in operational and business volumes, reflecting the strict cost controls led by our internal efficiency committee. Fourth quarter OpEx was up 4.8%, mainly driven by higher business volumes and the seasonal upturn in marketing expense. Considering our ongoing pursuit of improved efficiency in our investments in information technology, we believe that we will continue to deliver OpEx growth below the inflation level. Slide 18 shows insurance written premiums, pension plan contributions and the capitalization bond income, which increases by 30.9% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a strong growth in the pension plans segment, which in turn, was boosted by a higher concentration of pension plan contributions during this year. And while on an annual basis, we have seen a 12.3% increase, led by the health issues and capitalization bonds segments, both of which showing double-digit growth. Fourth quarter net income was up by 14%, exceeding BRL 1 billion, mainly due to first, the higher revenues; second, improved financial results; third, our claims ratio under control; and finally, the greater administrative efficiency. The annual net income amounted to BRL 3,740,000,000, 4.3% up on 2012, largely driven by revenue growth and improved financial results. Slide 19 shows some of the main figures of our insurance activity. The combined ratio came to 86.1% in the fourth quarter, mainly impacted by higher revenues. Financial assets amounted to BRL 146 billion, while technical reserves stood at BRL 136 billion. Also the BRL 136 billion of which, some of their life and pension plan business. Slide 20 shows our economic department's GDP interest rate inflation and the exchange rates estimates for 2014 through 2016. We believe that the results of economic growth [ph] in Brazil, in the end 2013 has been supported mainly by the productive investment coming from the recent infrastructure concession problem, the improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and the institutional achievements. This has actually contributed to stable and higher economic growth for this coming year, coupled with strict inflation and the interest rates also. On Slide 21, we present a comparison of our 2013 guidance with our actual performance. We managed to meet all of our guidance range, except for corporate and the total loan portfolio growth, which we had already revised down when we disclosed our results for the second quarter of 2013, given the business environment at the time. It is important to mention that at that time, we revised our guidance upwards for fee income due to the expansion of the personnel and the card fees and also revised our guidance down for operating expense. Please turn to Slide 22. We believe the loan portfolio will continue to expand in 2014, growing between 10% and 14%, mainly boosted by loans to individuals. Our economic department, they understand that for the total system, the growth in the loan portfolio will be 13.2% in 2014. We expect another year of good performance for our fee income, 9% to 13%, and the insurance premiums, 9% to 12%. Concerning to OpEx, we expect, then, to grow at inflation level at the most because of our continuous investments and looking for more efficiency. It is also worth noting the resumption of the interest earning portion of the net interest income which might increase business volumes as we expect and the funding contribution because of the high level of the [indiscernible] that we expect for 2014. Finally, we believe 2013 was a year of favorable results for Bradesco, especially given the challenging scenarios we had to face through the year. The improvement in our loan portfolio quality ratios means less provision for loan losses and allowed us to maintain high levels of coverage and provision for overdue loans. Once again, it is worth highlighting the continuous pursuit of efficiency and the growth in our revenues, mainly due to the higher volume of transactions, which in turn, resulted from the investments we made in the infrastructure, information technology, new products and services, organic growth over the last few years. Bradesco Group also made substantial contributions to our results being strategically positioned to meet the needs of a society, that's becoming an increasingly aware of the importance of protecting their license, their future and their profits. Given the current economic environment, we are very optimistic towards financial services and the insurance conditions in the coming years. Loans should experience a sustainable pace of growth and the lower risk exposure, leading by income gains and job creation. So this is, therefore, reaffirming its positive outlook for the quarter and guiding the strategy in order to strengthening its positioning in Brazil's banking and insurance industries. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are now available to answer any questions you may have.