Earnings Labs

Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBD)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Sat, Jan 30, 2010

$3.78

-2.71%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We would like to welcome everyone to Banco Bradesco’s fourth quarter 2009 earnings results conference call. This call would be conducted by Mr. Luiz Carlos Trabuco Cappi, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu; Executive Vice President and Investor Relations Officer; Mr. Marco Antonio Rossi, Chief Executive Officer of Bradesco Seguros e Previdencia (Insurance); Mr. Samuel Monteiro dos Santos Junior, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Bradesco Seguros e Previdencia (Insurance); Mr. Luiz Carlos Angelotti, Department Officer of Accounting Department. This call is being broadcasted simultaneously through the internet in the Web site, www.bradesco.com.br/ir. In the address you can also find a banner through which the presentation will be available for download. We inform that all participants will only be able to listen to the conference call during the Company’s presentation. After the presentation, there will a question-and-answer session. At that time further instructions will be given. (Operator instructions). Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Banco Bradesco’s management and on information currently available to the Company. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, they involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Banco Bradesco and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Luiz Carlos Trabuco Cappi, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Trabuco, you may proceed.

Luiz Carlos Trabuco Cappi

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our conference call. First of all I would like to thank you all for accepting our invitation to take part in this conference at which we will present the 2009 results. The 2009 yearly conference, in the first semester, we had an adverse economic climate and a negative feeling, but we decided to maintain liquidity and credit lines to our client. In the second semester, we saw a recession of the positive expectation for 2010 with the arrival of our new class of the consumers as a result of the social mobility, social inclusion and the popular asset to the banking system by the CDs and the elite classes. Despite this, Bradesco is maintaining its investments. During these two semesters, we continued to expand our advanced network and investments. We opened 441 branches and the sub branches and ended at 2009 with 6015 attendance points. We set up 4,139 Bradesco Expresso units, bringing our network of 10,200 correspondent banking postal. This was also a year marketed by national integration during which Bradesco consolidated its presence in a 100% of 5,564 Brazilian municipalities. We also opened the first floating banking branch in the world on about on the River Solimões or Amazonas. In terms of the results, we are presenting net income of the R$8.012 billion, 66% of this income came from the financial sector and 34% from the insurance sector. Assets totaled 506.2 billion. Shareholders' equity ended the period at R$41.7 billion. The complete statement will be presented in statement by our colleague, Abreu. In terms of the loan portfolio, we ended this year with volume of R$228 billion. We granted new loans amounted to R$243.2 billion and the average turnover period for the credit was 247 days. In terms of our IT…

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. On Slide #2 and #3, we show some of our highlights. I would like to draw your attention to our net income in the fourth quarter of 2009 of around R$2.2 billion, totaling an annual net income of more than R$8 billion in 2009, 5% up on 2008. The assets managed reached more than R$700 billion, growing by 70.5% over December of 2008. Slide #4; on this slide, we gave a summary of all those events we consider as non-recurring and which affect our results in the respective fields. The less line in red therefore shows our results, which we call as adjusted net income or recurring net income. This quarter, our results were benefited from non-recurring events, especially the net gain of R$388 million resulted from the payment of certain taxes pursuant through Law 11,941, it's called a REFIS. This was chiefly due to our decision to drop certain thesis in which we have been competent in the course of the legality of these taxes. As a result, part of the provision made for this proposal was reversed. The remaining non-recurring items are shown in this chart or underneath in default footnotes. In an event, we may offer additional explanation during the Q&A section. On this slide, I would also like to draw your attention to our fourth quarter and our returns on average equity, both in terms of reported and adjusted net income which stood at around 20%. Slide #five, before moving to the slides in the order it lies I would just like to make clear that the data numbers and indicators we will be dealing with from now on had not been adjusted for the non-recurring events shown on the previous slide since we have maintained the same reporting procedures as…

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator instructions.) Our first question comes from Mr. Jorge Kuri with Morgan Stanley. Jorge Kuri – Morgan Stanley: Hi, good morning everyone, and congratulations to Jean for his new (inaudible). I have three questions if I may really quickly on your guidance. The first one is can you explain why your guidance for individuals portfolio growth is 16% to 20%, which is lower than the guidance for total loan growth of 21% to 25%? I guess over the last many years we’ve seen you and most of the banks being able to grow consumer lending much faster than the overall portfolio. That’s the first question. Second, your guidance for financial margin growth of 14% to 18%, can you clarify if that includes trading gains or this is excluding trading? And second, what type of margin contraction is implied in this; what year-on-year basis point reduction are you assuming? And the final question on the guidance is can you help us a little bit with the outlook for provisions? Provisions were around 6.5% of total loans in 2009. Where do you think the number could be? Thank you.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Hi, Jorge, this is Abreu speaking. We understand that it will gradually grow more in the corporate side because the company is investing a lot, here where the economy, the big drive for the economy, will be now divestment for company that’s why we understand that the portfolio of corporate will grow more (inaudible). Of course, it will continue to be important for us even in consumer side, but we are posting more conservative guidance for this, this could be more, we understand should be more, but we are just posting more conservative. One thing is exactly because it has been going more in the past, right is the movement that we need to replace some, for example, we grew in 2007 and 2008 in how to finance for example much more it was a very, very, big, big growth that we had. Once we are replacing that plan, so we need to replace that plan and we need to grow that portfolio. So, that’s why you have this impact in the consumer side. And say about net interest income that we are projecting growing between four to 18, it’s including a part of total gain, there are some part, you can see that there are of trading gain that we have been posted in the past, okay, we can consider its including deal [ph] but exceptional gains or losses is of course we need to reduce. And why it is here we are let’s say optimistic about this net interest income than we were in the last year. One thing is because we start to remember that the last year we have an average movement in the credit portfolio. And in 2008 we got a lot (inaudible) you transfer the revenues for 2009 because we start in the point, a higher point. During 2009 the portfolio didn’t grow as much that it’s growth in 2008, so you have this aspect on this. And we have some pressure for us in the spread during 2010, during 2009, during the higher, the most complicated period we need to increase spread, of course, once we have the economy going back in the normal base, we expect the spreads will continue to reduce a little bit. So are there other questions? You got my point, is that? Jorge Kuri – Morgan Stanley: The last is on provision, so if you can help us a little bit with your outlook for provisioning in 2010?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Look we don’t have a number like we see, you see like its present part of the total portfolio. Normally, we use a reference that the present charge-off our gross margin as you have in our slide #12 when the CDs, the total provision we can assume to be around 44% of gross margin, let’s say. Jorge Kuri – Morgan Stanley: 44% of interest income you mean?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Excuse me? Jorge Kuri – Morgan Stanley: Interest income from loans?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Look at the margin that we have in slide 12, we have the great part of the gross margin, right. We normally, we work with something like this, the provision will be around, here we are close to 60%, in 2009, we are close to 6%. We expect the net will be around 44%. Jorge Kuri – Morgan Stanley: All right. That’s clear. Well, thanks a lot.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Our next question comes from Mr. Peter Irblad with Deutsche Bank. Peter Irblad – Deutsche Bank: Hi, good morning. A couple of questions, just a follow-up on the financial margin you spoke about before. You said you use some of the trading gains in your estimates, but some you don't. So just want to I know, it's hard to calculate but more forecast, but since to get a sense, if you look at that trading gains over the last few years averaged around R$600 million. Is that more or less which you are using or do you think it could be lower than that particularly since the fourth quarter we were trading around R$300 million. So if you can maybe give us a little more color on that? And then just second question related to your acquisition of the Banco Ibi Mexico? Can you maybe just give some more color in terms of, do you expect to grow more outside of Brazil, is this kind of a sign or you plan to go in Mexico, or is this just related to the previous acquisition of Banco Ibi? Thanks.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Okay, Peter. Look at the slide #9, you'll see that we have the no interest scheme of what you see that the three previous quarter was very, very strong. But you can see that in the past it's out of the curve. I think this year was particularly very good in terms of trading in. We don't have a specific number for this but we consider as the number for around R$300 million and R$400 million would be a good guess for this number. Okay, the normal days, let’s say. Right? In terms of the operational fee, Ibi's and (inaudible), you need to understand this more as an opportunity that we have, once you have made the agreement with the people from CNA company in Brazil and we have a good opportunity to – they shown the operation in Mexico is very small operation so far and we understand that we have some synergy with this because all the reprocessing in Brazil the cards (inaudible) so many, many situations that give us opportunity to go in different continents as Trabuco mentioned in his presentation the second biggest country in terms of GDP in Latin America. So it’s an opportunity, of course, its opportunity to know, to stay, to understand a different country but it definitely does not indicate that we have in our strategic plans to continue to expand outside Brazil. Its an operation that could be, we understand this more as a good opportunity to stay with lower risk, stay in a different country with a lower risk with a partner that has been proved to be a very, very positive with us. So that’s why that we understand then nature to see this. Peter Irblad – Deutsche Bank: Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Our next question comes from Mr. Daniel Abut with Citi. Daniel Abut – Citi: Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on loan growth in general and I would make two questions on this big topic. One, if I know correctly, some of Mr. Trabuco’s remark, he said that the focus for 2010 will be to grow organically and to grow market share. Yet, if I look at your guidance loan growth for the year, which is 21% to 25% that seems to me to be pretty much in line with what we’ve been hearing from most of your peers. So if that’s what you grow, it seem to me that you are going to grow pretty much above where the market will grow, therefore, you will not grow market share. So what is your underlying assumption, how much the system, the market will grow loans this year, and if you really want to grow market share, don’t you need to grow a bit more than that? And second, if you can elaborate at least in broad picture terms, what do you expect for 2011 even though you are not going to give any specific guidance, because if I look at your macro outlook, you expect the growth to be exceptionally high this year, 6% like most economies out there. But do you expect a slowdown or at least to more sustainable levels in 2011 to 4%, and while we get closer to 2011 we would have experienced significant increase in interest rates as you correct recall. So do you think that when we get to 2011 we’re going to see a significant moderation in loan growth or you think that by 2011 you can sustain something in the order of a 21% plus that you’re likely to see this year?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Just a minute Daniel, please. Daniel Abut – Citi: Okay.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Sorry, Daniel, we just to be sure is I hadn’t understood your points. I understand your point that the bank is having the same guidance for (inaudible) in this way we will be in the same place in terms of much, okay, you are right. But, of course, when we give some guidance we try to be more as conservative as possible to give that, right. When the (inaudible) will have space in different lines which will continue to grow and gain much. Of course, in our view, even if you feel this market share we gained something close to 0.2%, 0.3% of market share, okay it’s not a big gain, but it’s a share. Of course, it will depend how the market will stay. In relation to the 2011 we don’t have numbers for 2011 yet of course, but once you consider that 2010 we will be growing a lot of course have to expect to grow the same line, but normally we use something like to close to four times or five times the growth in GDP, let’s say, but not against just we did exercise 2011 yet. Daniel Abut – Citi: So you say something like four times to five times GDP growth that would put you somewhere in the 15$ to 20% range. That’s a very preliminary number. The significant increase in interest rate that you expect by then you don’t see that having any affect on volume growth?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Again if you consider that you need to have in mind that Brazil will be the mid of the many, many process of investment due to have some World Cup come in Brazil, you have Olympic Games. So I think Brazil will have many, many there. So I think it could be possible to grow even more, even if you consider this growth of 4%, right. And why it is growing only to 4% in 2011? I don’t have the reason, our economy changed right now, but we understand it’s just because we have growth in a base that is higher, right, you have 6% in 2010, you need to carry over a movement, let’s say. But the expectation of interest rate in 2011, if I remember that the movement that I saw the last movement, it should be a movement we start to move into reduce again, right. It’s there when say 12.75 is high, okay, but if you beat the adjustment that you need in terms of monetize policy is at this movement, which would be less that it wasn’t in the previous time. Of course, the central bank needs to increase to 12.75, remember the last time it was 13.75. It’s a movement of the policy monetizing, it’s right to choose the exact point where it needs to be stood. But (inaudible) achievable, but at the same time at least try to refine the level of those rates. But we continue to have even for 2011 even when they post this 4% of course it should be the reduction spot to 4% to be driven by the increase in interest rate that we have in this year, right, in order to keep the inflation in control of what you need to let go a part of the growth to sacrifice the part of the growth is the point. But, again, in terms of growth it's just a multiple that we normally use to say 4% or 4 times, we don't have a specific number, sorry. Daniel Abut – Citi: Thank you. Let me just close by adding my congratulations to Jean on his promotion, and wishing him good luck in his assignment. Jean Thank you.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Our next question comes from Mr. David Vaamonde with Fidentiis. David Vaamonde – Fidentiis: Hi, everyone. I wanted to clarify one thing on the provisioning charge. As I see it, but at least could we looking at decline in the cost of risk of more than 100 basis points in 2010 versus 2009. And in fact, I was looking more at 150 basis points of decline on my calculations. I don't know if that calculation is correct, if that sounds right to you or not. Thank you.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Just one moment please. So, David, yes. David Vaamonde – Fidentiis: Yes.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Sorry, I don't have the specific number the way that you're looking, maybe we can talk later to understand, but the point that the way that is the provisions, exactly the way that we already mentioned in this answer to another question is that we considered the total provision is in the year would be around 44% of the gross margin of credit, as reported in slide number #12. Unfortunately, I don’t have exact the way that you are seeing this. So maybe we can find this later if you don’t mind. David Vaamonde – Fidentiis: Yes. Yes, yes, yes, no problem at all. I was just doing loans provision charge of around R$11 billion over a loan book of let’s say R$274 billion by the end of 2010, but we can clarify later. Okay. Thank you.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Okay. But remember this R$11 billion, I think we have is included in 1.3 billion to R$1.4 billion of extra provision, right? David Vaamonde – Fidentiis: Yes.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Our next question comes from Mr. Victor Galliano with HSBC. Victor Galliano – HSBC: Hello, good morning. Just a quick question here on the IT CapEx program. I think the CEO mentioned R$4 billion for 2010. Can you just clarify as to whether that is expensed or capitalized and amortized over time? And what can we expect for 2011, can we expect this to be winding down by then if you can give us some kind of indication? Thank you.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Hi, Victor. Victor Galliano – HSBC: Hi.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Trabuco mentioned R$4 billion investment, it includes everything that we invest in Brazil. It includes investment that normally we have in IT. I would say that the most portion of this is a normal base, don't to be over above is in terms of projections in the future, and the most part of this because the things as Trabuco mentioned is 20% higher that we had, okay, the impact in the numbers for next year. You can see there could be marginal, let’s say. The newest thing to hear is about that we are planning to open 258 new branches which will remain to close to maybe R$300 million owned, and the rest, of course, will have a part of the IT program that will have more, we are investing a little bit more than we normally invest. But it’s something that has been happening since the last two years or three years, all right? So I don’t think it should be impact so much your projection in the future. Victor Galliano – HSBC: Okay. And just a quick follow-up if I may on what Trabuco was saying about the penetration in the C and D class. I mean, do you have any data you can share with us or any kind of color you can give us in terms of how that is going in terms of penetration into those socioeconomic classes, say, how you are penetrating the C class, what your level of penetration is now relative to where it was maybe two years ago? I don’t know if you have anything like that or maybe we can talk about that after the call.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Victor, just a minute please. Victor Galliano – HSBC: Thank you.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Victor, unfortunately we don’t have the specific data about this, but we have some numbers that would give you some idea about this. I don’t remember, Trabuco said this in his presentation, but the last year, we opened 6,000 demand accounts for people come on a daily basis for people came from class C and D, D and C. Victor Galliano – HSBC: 6,000 the accounts per working day in 2009 from classes C and D.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Yes, just to have an idea. Victor Galliano – HSBC: Okay.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Unfortunately don’t have other, it was my view, but can post some latter if you have them. Victor Galliano – HSBC: Yes, okay. Thank you. Thanks very much, Abreu.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

You are welcome.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Our next question comes from Mr. Jason Mollin with Goldman Sachs. Jason Mollin – Goldman Sachs: Hello, everyone. A lot of my questions have been asked. But maybe I can just ask the questions on asset quality, which you focused on in your presentation ex-Banco EV loans to individuals delinquent more than 90 days, improved quarter-on-quarter. Can you provide us with the sense of the movement by product, especially, was there any product and consumer product that show deterioration in asset quality rather than improvement, is there anything that’s not getting better?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Jason, Abreu speaking. When we have deteriorations, I’d say it's more – if only credit cards could live a part of this credit card keep the during the period to give, they had a very good, good, it will have a steady, very good during dispute, it will have so many impacts in this credit card. The other lines all of them will have the more ventures who will have deterioration. So now we are going back, all of them is coming back in the growth of the company. I don’t know if I answer your question, Jason. Jason Mollin – Goldman Sachs: Yes, I mean I’m just thinking like some of the areas, I mean you mentioned that on average we are seeing NPLs move back to pre-crisis levels. But for example in the auto business what did we learn through this crisis, is there segments that you would rather not be as active in. We’ve seen some of the market participants say that very used cars, let’s say cars over seven years of age had very substantial losses and some have backed away from that business entirely. I don’t know if you can give us any comments on the auto space and if your strategy has changed? Clearly, we’re seeing you grow much slower in the auto space or your expectation is to grow much slower in the auto space this year 2010?

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Look, we understand the credit need to be careful all the time. When the economy is growing very good you need to be very careful with credit, not only when the economy is not good and when so good. What has happened that when we have a change in this cycle like you had this even that all care that you have with credit of course you need to be of practice is different, of course. We understand that what I think this even for us we have some internal comments about this. This credit, we understand what we’re going to say now, right. This credit for us could be very important for us because we have been growing credit for a long period of three years or four years and didn’t have any moment that we have some moving like this, right. That’s why I think it was important for us to, and to prove for rather for the market that we have very, very good approach in terms of credit. Of course, we felt a lot what happened I think when you have a bigger change in the cycle like this. But what’s important is to that we have conditions to absorb, absorb what happened. That's why the bad thing that we have to take from this movement, I will say. Of course, lines of credits, some credits we need to change the movement, the model we are improving everyday and every month it depends on the some time, some practice of one model that explain better in the moment, it could change, so, something is very, something that we need to be very carefully every time.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me. Our next question comes from Ms. Flavimontodu [ph] with BlackRock. Flavimontodu – BlackRock: Hi, everybody. I have two questions. One is regarding, I have some sell-side analysts here expecting to see an increase in reserve requirement, so I was wondering what do you expect and you have incorporated in your projections. And then another question is regarding the investments and how you're going to grow more on corporate side, because I think if it's true that we are going to have a lot of investments, maybe we should see more capital markets activities this year. So I was wondering if part of your fee income grow it's because of this higher capital markets and if you are somehow dividing what is going to be just corporate loans and what is going to be capital market activities.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

Okay. We understand that we can have some changes with the requirements once the Brazilian government start a movement to take out of the cycle policy they create. But we understand they view, it won’t affect our budget for, it will affect the liquidity of the system, of course, but once we now we have a very, very high level of liquidity I don’t think it will affect too much in our net income at the end. And the other point, you are right, let's say, you are correct when you say that in the last quarter we expect to grow 20 to 26 and just to answer a question like this in the Portuguese section, it was at the point. Maybe you won’t see this in the total loan portfolio because we don’t know exactly where we are going to grow. Maybe you are going in some securities like debentures, like notes and other than (inaudible) maybe we need to show reports to the market. But in terms of the credit risk, we understand the growth would be this size. All right. Maybe you see this in other lines of the balance and not in the credit, in other words. Flavimontodu – BlackRock: Thanks and I am sorry, but I didn’t participate in the Portuguese one.

Domingos Figueiredo de Abreu

Management

No, no problem. It was good, your question just replied if I did in English. Okay?

Luiz Carlos Trabuco Cappi

Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Trabuco speaking. In conclusion, I would like to thank you, each and everyone health, success and the year full of accomplishments. I wish a happiness in your life, in your social, professional and family aspects. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us. Thank you. Thank very much.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude the Banco Bradesco’s audio conference for today. Thank you very much for participation and have a good day.