Jonathan Johnson
Analyst · Needham
Thanks, Adrianne. 2020 was an amazing year for Overstock. For the full year 2020, the retail business delivered $136 million in adjusted EBITDA at a margin of 5.4%. This is incredible performance. It's also within the margin rate guardrails we're targeting in our long-term plan. It sure is a far cry from our 2019 performance, and I think it's our new normal, profitable growth. Slide 15, please. I just have to say, I'm so pleased with Overstock's performance. It represents discipline, focus and execution. I thank all my colleagues at the company for their hard work. This certainly was a team effort. Slide 16, please. I'll now discuss our operations, specifically how we achieved these results. Slide 17. Overstock is a top 5 company in the fast-growing online home furnishings market. A market that is now more relevant than ever and one that we believe will remain relevant. You'll see we've expanded the risk on this slide from 5 to 10. We want to show some of the serious home furnishing names that we outperformed. After years of major growth and online penetration, the industry saw a significant spike this year, and we estimate that as of December, 35% of home furnishings are being purchased online. Just like other categories before it, I think books, 2 decades ago; and apparel, a decade ago, we think home furnishings is now experiencing a similar permanent shift. I'm going to say it's sustainable, profitable market share growth. I'm proud of the fact that Overstock grew 2.3x the pace of the online home furnishing markets. Overstock is gaining market share. I'm confident we can continue to outperform the market. Slide 18, please. How are we outperforming competitors? Well, our brand pillars are resonating. More home furnishing shoppers are discovering Overstock's value proposition. Through internal brand research, we see customer purchase intent, which is the measurement of the probability that a customer will purchase a product from us, is up 7.5% over the previous year. Importantly, we are winning the customers who best fit our value proposition, the savvy shopper. Purchase intent among savvy shoppers increased 20%, the greatest improvement compared to any of the competitor brands we measure internally. Customers increasingly perceive Overstock as a brand that makes you feel like a smart shopper, offers quality for the price, and of course, has free shipping, a top driver of purchase consideration. Slide 19, please. As we've discussed before, we know where we fit in the market. We play to our distinct position of strength in the market, home expertise and smart value defined as quality and style that costs less. Our customers, particularly the segments we are focused on, want quality and styles, and want it for a great value. Few in the market are focused on this unique blended style of quality and price like we are. The competitors in the smart value space aren't focusing in quality to the same degree we are. For example, IKEA has a different value proposition and focuses on a very different customer. We believe our position differentiates us from the other top 10 online players, and we believe it is a position that is relevant in any market conditions, but especially during challenging or uncertain economic times. Going forward, we'll continue to clarify and strengthen our identity. With the amount of white space in our quadrant, we think there is a real opportunity to increase our share of the market and brand association with home and with smart value, something I'm excited to have our new CMO address as a top priority. Slide 20, please. Continuing in the spirit of differentiation, our research and findings have driven us to focus on targeting 2 customer segments that particularly fit our strengths, savvy shoppers and relucting refreshers. Together, they represent 40% of the home furnishings market or about $120 billion. We've leaned into these 2 customer segments that already have a higher propensity to shop with us. These customers are deal-driven, want to feel great about their purchases and are on a low hassle shopping experience. Well, that's Overstock. Slide 21, please. Next to our focused strategy. Much of this strategy will appear familiar and remain the same in 2020, although we've made some slight refinements. Overstock's vision is to create Dream Homes for All, making beautiful, comfortable and well-appointed homes accessible by helping customers find what they want or less. To achieve our goal of sustainable, profitable market share growth, we will focus on serving our customers' highest needs. Our brand pillars aligned to these needs: product findability, smart value and easy delivery and support. These provide the long-term guardrails and focus for innovation so that we're only working on the things that improve the experience our customers want. I'd like to call your attention to the enablers on this slide, the hall of our strategy, specifically to the data-driven culture we are developing and refining. We consider ourselves a technology company first. These enablers show we are embracing that mentality. We are allowing data to drive our decisions and actions, and we're growing long-term relationships with customers to drive repeat purchase behavior. This cultural focus has had and will continue to have real impact on our business performance. You can also see our 2020 strategic initiatives. I'll get to these later in the presentation. Slide 22, please. I'll now walk through the process we made -- I'm sorry. I'll now walk through the progress we made in each of our 3 brand pillars. Improving our mobile platform was 1 of the 4 initiatives for the retail business in 2020. In fact, it was our product findability in that. I'm pleased with the progress we've made. Sales from mobile remained at 50% of revenue through the third quarter in a row, which is a particularly nice achievement in the fourth quarter. There are still improvements we need to make in our mobile experience in 2021, particularly increasing adoption of our mobile app. It's a great app, and a great retention tool, and its broader adoption is one of the things I expect our new CMO to help drive. As customers continue to naturally migrate to mobile, it's an increasingly important platform, particularly for millennial customers. Slide 23, please. Our vision is to create Dream Homes for All. I emphasize the word homes in that vision statement. As demand for home furnishings continues to increase new and repeat customers are finding us and liking us for our core competency, home furnishings, which remained above 90% of our sales mix in the fourth quarter, higher than any other fourth quarter in our history. We have a real opportunity to increase our brand association with home. While we've made good progress, we still have plenty of room for improvement in clarifying Overstock's identity. We know it's helpful from a sales perspective. Shoppers who come to us in search of home items are twice as likely to include Overstock among the companies they will purchase from when they make their next purchase. Slide 24, please. Our value proposition is smart value. Shipping and promotions are 2 key components of that proposition. We know free shipping is a top purchase driver, particularly for larger items. So we launched free shipping on all items initially in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to support our customers during a challenging time. Because free shipping responded so strongly with our customers, particularly the savvy shoppers, in late 2020, we made free shipping on all items, a permanent benefit. Savvy shoppers love us. Customers rated us 11% better than our competitors' customers rated them on shipping charges in the fourth quarter. It's important for us -- for us to differentiate in this space, and we're doing just that. Slide 25, please. Aside from shipping cost, our product pricing must be right. One of our 4 strategic initiatives in 2020 was to clarify our promotional messaging and refine our pricing model. What that means is we need to ensure our products were optimally priced versus competition, not too low; and post-promotion, certainly not higher. We are not an everyday low-price waiter. Our model is promotion-driven. Our goal is to win on price after coupon and other discounts. If we can price competitively on 80% of our SKUs pre-promotion, that's in line with where we want to be. As you can see, we made great progress this past year. Slide 26, please. We know delivery speed and on-time delivery accuracy matter to customers and are key drivers of customer satisfaction. On-time delivery accuracy especially matters. It can mean the difference between a customer purchasing with us again or not. Despite what many predicted would be a challenging quarter due to more customers doing an online -- their holiday shopping online, coupled with carrier capacity constraints, Overstock fared well during the fourth quarter due to rigorous planning of diligent communication with our carriers, partners and customers. For us, shipageddon didn't have as much as an impact as some anticipated. All things considered, we maintain good customer service levels during the fourth quarter, in part, because our main carrier delivered well on its commitment. We continue to build out our freight consortium program with that carrier, a program which allows our partners to take advantage of our lower shipping rates. All in all, we held up well during a challenging quarter, and we expect that to continue. Slide 27, please. As a percentage of orders, customer contact volume declined 23% year-over-year due to more accurate delivery estimates and improved automation. I should note that the second quarter was a bit of an anomaly, as not all customers who were able to reach us when we temporarily turned the phone lines off as was the case with many of our peers, which artificially drove down the contact rate during that quarter. The self-service enhancements we've made throughout 2020 not only reduced cost but also improved customer satisfaction because customers prefer to handle returns and solve issues themselves without having to call anyone or wait for us. Self-service cases were 3x higher as a percentage of total sales than a year ago. You'll see a slight dip in the percentage of self-service cases in Q4. That is typical, as customers are a little quicker to pick up phones prior to the holidays. During 2021, we'll continue to make improvements to increase self-service capabilities and to enhance the overall customer experience. Slide 28, please. The retail business had 4 strategic initiatives in 2020. We have 4 new initiatives in 2021. Our first initiative is to continue to improve product findability on our site, which means customers can quickly and easily find the products they want. If we're going to win in this area of product findability, we need to upgrade our on-site search capabilities, including search, relevancy and recommendations, enabling customers to search with more granularity and specificity to save them time and hassle, and generally ensuring a better shopping experience. This initiative makes like normal e-commerce blocking and tackling. It is. That's why I like it so much. I'm a blocking and tackling execution guy. I know it's something we need to do better, and I know it's something we can do better. The next 2 are growth initiatives. First, geographic expansion. As we think about geographic expansion opportunities, Canada is close and promising. So we are planning to grow there in 2021. This means serving our Canadian customers from Canada, not just to Canada, like we've been trying to do. We will locate and source product in Canada and then specifically mark that product to and for our Canadian customers. This will allow us to win on smart value and ease of delivery, 2 of our 3 brand pillars. The other growth area is the establishment of our government business. The GSA pilot contract, which we were awarded in 2020 was really the impetus for this initiative and the foundation from which we will build our government business. If the GSA power continues to slowly ramp, we're taking the opportunity to expand the products sold to government agencies and to make those products available to additional government agencies, including at the state and city levels. We are also engineering a more intuitive purchasing experience. Now, I know many of you would like to hear specific sales results on the GSA contract, but it's still too early to report and hit meaningful. We're forging ahead on this initiative to change that. Our fourth initiative is to transform our enterprise platform. One component of this initiative is to improve the organization and accessibility of our data to enable faster and better business insights. That is one of our greatest assets, and we use it to drive improved performance. The other component of this initiative is to increase quad adoption to a level that maximizes efficiency and ensure sufficient redundancy, again, the estimation of this basic technology, blocking and tackling. And again, that excites me. I'm not sure I'll be improving our business by blocking and tackling, thereby, throwing Hail Mary passes. In summary, we've chosen 4 initiatives for 2021 that we think will have a material positive impact on the business. Slide 29, please. Let me sum up the retail business, a business that remains well positioned for continued growth, especially market share growth. Our revenue growth is outpacing the industry. Driven by our technology, our customer focus and our business model. We've improved and maintained our normalized gross margins. Our expected rate -- our expense rate continues to grow slower than revenue, driving operating leverage. This flows through to produce long-term adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-single digits. We are delivering sustainable, profitable market share growth by enabling our vision of Dream Homes for All. Slide 30, please. Let's turn to the Medici Ventures business. Before I summarize our recent and exciting announcement, I'll give a brief recap of the rationale for the transaction. Medici Ventures was at a turning point. The portfolio of companies now have different needs and require different skills than when we initially started investing. Do not require more strategic data and attention. We've looked at a host of alternatives to address these needs and increase the likelihood of success for each of the portfolio of companies with the goal to maximize shareholder value. After evaluating several options, we decided to partner with a professional venture firm with expertise and decades of experience, helping companies like those in the Medici Ventures portfolio, scale and achieved successful economic outcomes. And we found exactly the right firm to do this, Pelion Venture Partners. Slide 31, please. This slide shows the summary of what this partnership looks like. We will be converting Medici Ventures into a limited partnership that will become the Pelion Venture Partners' fund. Pelion entity will be the general partner. Overstock will be the limited partner. Once the deal closes, Pelion will handle all day-to-day operations of the fund. This will include operating oversight and investment decisions. We'll remain that an experienced dedicated and professional team will work to take these companies to the next level. The term of the fund is 8 years, $45 million in cash has been committed to the fund. If the fund raises additional capital, Overstock has an option at its sole discretion to contribute the first position of $30 million. Pelion will earn an annual fee for running the fine and success fees according to performance as outlined in our limited partnership agreement. This is a standard venture capital fund structure. We anticipate the deal will close in 3 or 6 months pending required regulatory approvals. We were pleased to find the right partner in Pelion. We believe this is the best way to maximize the value of both the Medici Ventures portfolio and Overstock. Next slide, please. It's not just that we believe Medici Ventures would benefit for more specialized oversight, it's equally important that we found the right one. Pelion has experienced in investing. It has done so for nearly 20 years and his team has over 90 years of combined investment experience. It's focused on early stage companies, the current stage promoted Medici Ventures portfolio of companies. It's focused on this space, disruptive technology and what's more disruptive than blockchain technology. It's staffed with effective advisers with the reputation of being trusted and active board members for its portfolio. It's a proven fundraiser. We have the ability and the networks necessary to help the portfolio of companies raise additional capital when necessary. As staffed with proven operators, this team knows how to help companies scale. Overstock made this decision because we found the right partner in Pelion. We've made good progress since we announced this transaction. Earlier it was not concluding, completing the process of winding the -- of nearly completing the process of winding down the day-to-day operations of Medici Ventures and making the appropriate regulatory filings. We'll continue to keep you appraised of our time line. In summary, the deal simplifies our story and it enables all parties to do what they do best, and we think that's good for the Overstock shareholders. Slide 33, please. I'll briefly recap before we move to Q&A, Slide 34. We made a lot of progress in 2020 across all our businesses. Some here are some of the many 2020 highlights. We significantly strengthened the leadership team. We appointed key independent and diverse directors to our Board. We identified our strength and casted a focus and disciplined strategy to enable us to succeed, and we're executing against that strategy. We were awarded a federal proof-of-concept -- federal government proof-of-concept pilot contract with the general services administration, which is a long-term play that will take time to become a meaningful piece of our business for which we believe has a real long-term upside. We opportunistically raised capital. We found a strategic partner in Pelion Venture to oversee the Medici Ventures portfolio. We had a banner year with record sales and profitability. We remain focused on delivering sustainable, profitable market share growth in 2021 and thereafter. We are stronger than ever. Now let's take some questions. Alexis?