Earnings Labs

BlackBerry Limited (BB)

Q2 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Sep 24, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Edel Ebbs

Management

…with respect to revenue, gross margins, operating expenses, CapEx, depreciation and amortization, investment income, earnings, channel inventory, seasonality, ASPs, and foreign exchange related matters for Q3 and beyond; our expectations regarding RIM's near and long-term tax rates, as well as the effect of changes to Canadian tax laws; our estimates of the number of net subscriber account additions and other non-financial estimates; our efforts to manage operating expenses and reduce costs; our product development initiatives and timing; developments relating to our carrier partners; and other statements regarding our plans and objectives. We will indicate forward-looking statements by using words such as expect, plan, anticipate, estimate, may, will, should, forecast, intend, believe, continue, and similar expressions. All forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties and assumptions we have made. Many factors could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements, including risks related to our intellectual property rights, risks relating to the uncertainty of general economic conditions, our ability to enhance our current products and develop new products and services, our reliance on carrier partners and third-party manufacturers, third-party network developers and suppliers; the efficient and uninterrupted operation of RIM's network operations centers; risks associated with our international operations; foreign exchange risks; risks relating to competition and other factors set forth in the risk factors and MD&A sections in RIM's filings with the SEC and Canadian Securities Regulators. We base our forward-looking statements on information currently available to us and we do not assume any obligation to update them except as required by law. I will now turn the call over to Jim.

James L. Balsillie

Management

Thank you, Edel. We are pleased with the results for the second quarter of fiscal 2010, with revenue of $3.5 billion, up 37% over the prior year and adjusted earnings per share of $1.03. It was a busy with two new BlackBerry smartphones hitting the market, the BlackBerry Tour for CDMA networks and the BlackBerry Curve 8520 for GSM networks. The product and go-to-market teams were also busy gearing up for a number of exciting new fall and winter product launches. In addition, we continued to grow the number of partners offering BlackBerry products and services and there are over 500 carriers and distribution partners offering BlackBerry products in over 170 countries around the world. Approximately 3.8 million BlackBerry net subscriber accounts were added during the quarter, up over 45% from the same quarter last year and in line with expectation. Net subscriber account additions in the quarter were at the lower end of the range we gave in June, primarily due to a higher percentage of Tour going to existing customers for upgrades. The BIS subscriber base has grown steadily over the past couple of quarters and in Q2, over 80% of net new subscriber account additions came from non-enterprise customers. This is being driven by the ongoing focus of North American carriers of marketing BlackBerry products to the consumer and SMB segments and the success of our efforts to penetrate these market segments through channel development, price tiering, branding, and marketing programs and the expansion of the BlackBerry value proposition. With respect to the enterprise market, we expect that our efforts to introduce advanced features, such as the mobile voice system to our enterprise customers, as well as the availability of new products over the next several months will reinvigorate the growth in this market segment. In many…

Brian Bidulka

Management

Thank you, Jim. Revenue for the second quarter ended August 29th was $3.53 billion, which was slightly higher than the $3.42 billion reported in the previous quarter and in line with the guidance we provided on the June conference call. Handheld devices represented $2.9 billion, or 81% of revenue during the quarter, similar to the $2.8 billion, or 81% in the previous quarter. Total devices shipped in the quarter were higher than Q1 at approximately 8.3 million units. Approximately 7.9 million new devices were activated in Q2 either for new customers or for replacements and upgrades, not including phone only sales. We estimate that four weeks of channel inventory at the end of Q2 were slightly lower than Q1. We are not expecting a rebound in channel inventory levels in Q3. Device ASPs in the quarter were approximately $345, in line with guidance. Service revenue was $501 million, or 14% of revenue for the quarter, up $50 million from Q1. Monthly ARPU declined from the prior quarter as a percentage of non-enterprise subscriber accounts grew substantially and certain carriers achieved volume discounts. Software revenue was $61 million, or 2% of revenue. Other revenue, including non-warranty repairs and accessories, was $98 million, or 3% of revenue. Gross margin for the second quarter was 44.1%, in line with the guidance we provided in April and higher than the 43.6% in the first quarter [due to reductions in raw material costs] as well as the shifts in the product mix, as we discussed in the last earnings call. Operating expenses in the second quarter were $902 million, up 13% over Q1 R&D spending was $236 million, or 7% of revenue for the quarter, in line with our forecast. Included in Q2 operating expenses is a one-time charge relating to the settlement of litigation…

Edel Ebbs

Management

Thanks, Brian. Before I discuss our outlook for Q3, I would like to remind everyone that these forward-looking statements reflect management’s best current estimate and should be taken in the context of the risk factors listed at the beginning of the call and disclosed in our public filings. We expect to ship between 9.2 million and 9.9 million units in the third quarter and for revenue to be in the range of $3.6 billion to $3.85 billion. This growth is being driven by strong sell-through of BlackBerry products and services and new product launches that are scheduled for the latter part of Q3. As in any quarter with a high number of new products scheduled for launch in the latter part of the quarter, there is more uncertainty around the timing of shipments given the dependence on achieve certifications and risk of slippage in launch time tables. As Jim mentioned, ASP is expected to be lower in Q3 at approximately $320 primarily due to a number of mix related factors. First of all, the Curve 8520, which was designed to be the lowest price BlackBerry smartphone in the product portfolio, has been doing extremely well in markets around the world and will be shipping for a full quarter for the first time in Q3. Additionally, the prices on certain products have been lowered to prepared for the launch of new products into the market but since many of these higher ASP products will not launch until later in the quarter, they will be a smaller part of the mix and will have less of an impact on the overall ASP. While the launch of these higher ASP products earlier in Q3 would have partially offset the ASP decline in the quarter, we expect that the Curve 8520 and similar products…

James L. Balsillie

Management

Thank you, Edel. We are pleased with the strong financial performance so far in fiscal 2010 and the outlook for the third quarter. We have a strong portfolio of products as we head into the holiday buying season and we look forward to continuing to grow the presence of BlackBerry products and services in markets around the world. This concludes our formal comments and we’d like to open the call up for questions. Please limit yourself to one question per person. We plan to end the call today by approximately 6:00 p.m. Would the operator please come on to handle questions?

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mike Abramsky - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks very much. Can you talk a little bit about how you see the ASP trending forward if you kind of remove the effect of what you said was the interim product mix issue due to the timing of higher ASP product mix?

James L. Balsillie

Management

Well, I think the natural effect is going to be there’s going to be a higher ASP, you know, somewhat when you get the full quarters on the ASP but what we are experiencing now is a very, very strong demand in units but we are also seeing efficiency in component cost and we are passing through some of that into the market as we promote this. So basically we are seeing costs come down with ASPs but then it looks at your mix of products -- you know, there’s no question our goal is to get more and more mainstream and get more and more volume, as we talked before. This is a -- kind of a land grab and although we didn’t talk a lot about this on the call, we talked before, there’s a great set of value-added services stuff which you are going to see a lot of unveiling, the capabilities, some of them at our developer conference in early November. So the key for us is ASPs, it’s a mix thing right now but there is some component cost savings. But we are also coming up with higher end devices and you are going to see more of those launched in the quarter as opposed to the 8520, which is a very high performance but lower cost unit and -- but we are also seeing margins preserved, so the long-term trend is more capability per dollar and it’s a question of how much people want to put in versus how much they want in price but there’s some pretty high-end devices we’ve got teed up. We’ve also got some lower cost ones so it’s -- you know, and we maintain, we try to maintain our margins through that so it really becomes a function of timing and mix.

Mike Abramsky - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

And just as a related follow-up, do you see -- do you have a sense of what the elasticity is internationally of products like the 8520 now on that kind of ASP?

James L. Balsillie

Management

Yeah, it’s pretty powerful and it’s pretty positive. And Edel talked about the dollar swings and all that. I mean, there was some headwind there for a little bit when the dollar was so strong and the Euro was so soft earlier in the year but some of that is reversing right now so there’s no question there’s a -- you know, as you go into these broader markets, there’s some elasticity. But there’s also a lot of functionality you can pack in. And again, the thing I kind of want to stress is now that you’ve got this consolidated smartphone, what can you do with it, so I really see the services platform being an increasingly important part of what drives people to buy though it is right now and how we can earn some fair returns on that, so -- but for right now, for sure there’s elasticity and that’s when you get the BOGO type offers from Verizon and all that and you see a great pop in that, and that’s why the volume is good and the overall margin is good but you get some ASP pressure. But it’s a good decision not just for this quarter but we believe for the long-term strategy.

Mike Abramsky - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks, Jim.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Suva of Citigroup.

Jim Suva - Citigroup

Analyst

The outlook on the unit number is extremely impressive -- 9.2 to 9.9. And considering the mix shift of what’s going on with the 8520, is there really any reason to think that when things get more linear like past this quarter, I know you typically don’t guide for more than one quarter out, but the February quarter, that ASPs should not come back up or with this land grab, are we just looking at a structural lower price for RIM who has pretty much been keeping its ASPs around the $340 level?

James L. Balsillie

Management

Well, I mean, you know, this is cutting through to mainstream so I think it’s very important to pay attention to that. And so when you are land grabbing, and remember my comment, we are preserving margin, so what is fair to the market and what is fair there, so gosh, it’s hard to sort of justify taking margins too high when you are going more mainstream and there’s programs people are investing in and carriers are having and we have a channel strategy with carriers that are very cooperative and so you can't be disproportionate here, so I think there’s going to be naturally high -- well, we do have some naturally higher end devices but I think a lot of this stuff is how do you -- you know, what is that new middle ground which is there still is a middle market but that middle market requires a lot more features than it used to be. That’s why the traditional cell phone market was so squeezed in the middle because it’s not that there isn’t a middle market, it’s that there’s -- is they want a smartphone, what they want a very powerful services platform with it, so we are definitely still in a land grab and we are definitely still getting good margins on this but we absolutely invest in it and fair price into it and also build a services platform and you are seeing some very early indications of that, but you are going to see much more of that at our dev conference. You will start to see the platform pieces introduced then, so the wise person I believe sees this as a rapidly expanding market where the benefit of establishing and holding a lead position will accrue many, many years of benefit and so skim pricing now I think is penny wise, pound foolish plus it’s unfair partnership strategy with the carriers in the ecosystem. You could do it but I think you are penny wise, pound foolish. We are still in a rapid expansion mode and we are still trying to invest into it, although we do get a return on our current sales.

Jim Suva - Citigroup

Analyst

But with the linearity, ASPs though should mathematically come up a little bit though?

James L. Balsillie

Management

They could mathematically come up a bit but you never know how component prices may come out, come down and you never know how mix may come and it may trend to more mainstream where your lead stuff is well-priced and well-returned but it may not be your volume leader because -- I really want to make it clear that this stuff is going much more mainstream and we are teed up to go much more mainstream here. And this is what we have worked on in our device portfolio, in our carrier alignments, and our services platform B2B and B2C, and this strong investment around the world. And so if this crosses over, as I think we are doing, we have a sustained, very, very good position, very prosperous position that puts us in high alignment with the carriers, high alignment with the application ecosystem, and very, very profound value proposition to users. So I just -- I appreciate you are looking for trends. I just don’t think you get insight into short-term machinations because a little bump here or there or something a little more, a little less, priced a little high, a little lower, this SKU, that SKU a little bit, if you over extrapolate it you will mislead yourself. At the end of the day, this stuff is becoming way more powerful in the services platform, it’s going way more mainstream and our view of the world is you can monetize that new service of stuff and you can -- you battle the carrier at your peril. But you overwhelmingly must please customers and so that’s how we think and there is so much dynamism along the way that -- I get to the point of conjecture on this. I mean, you’ve just got to remember what happened last year and how that quarter went and many of these things as they cut over to a different level, we were pleasantly surprised and I am not changing Edel’s guidance and all that but we are positioning and investing for success here and that’s everything. Or the world will take you by and you are a nice niche player and that’s not what we are planning here.

Jim Suva - Citigroup

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gus Papageorgiou of Scotia Capital.

Gus Papageorgiou - Scotia Capital

Analyst

Thanks. Jim, just further on to your comments about [inaudible] and the 8520 specifically, can you give us a little sense, I mean, smartphones are going mainstream and that [does mean] prices have to come down and I just want to know, what is the carrier reaction to devices like the 8520, which seems to be a pretty attractive ASP? Would it be fair to say that the carriers are actually more excited about devices like that versus higher end devices like the Bold or the Storm? And then secondly, if you are looking -- if we’re looking at an ASP of roughly 320 and the 8520 is a kind of a lower end product, I’ve got to think that the ASP is below that and in that price category, how do you think you stack up competitively against other smartphone suppliers?

James L. Balsillie

Management

Well, I would say there’s a couple of things to mention there. There is no question this stuff is going mainstream but you also have to remember, when you make your [assertion that prices] have to come down, do remember that there is an intense consolidation of consumer electronics at play right now. And so you see peripherals that are being absorbed as software features in a smartphone under pressure but you can drive a lot of value into these things. You know, they are cameras, they are personal navigation devices, they are -- and you are going to see these as plasma TVs very, very soon, as well as personal media players and social networking and personal game machines and phones, and you are going to see some very, very rich enabling in that capability, so I can see a scenario where you say to be mainstream, is this a bit of an expensive phone or is this the cheapest plasma TV personal navigation device, personal game machine, et cetera, et cetera, imaginable and how do you sort of harvest all that richness together? So this is -- there is an element of price elasticity and there is an element of competitive but the BlackBerry brand and the BlackBerry value proposition really stands very, very high for very, very well-earned reasons. And so when you look at the price versus the competition, we very much priced for powerful and beneficial alignment with the carriers pushing into the channels with appropriate cost of acquisition strategies and so on and so forth but at the end of the day, you have to deliver on a set of promises and I think that’s why as a combined smartphone plus the BlackBerry data services platform and how we have scaled that and the…

Gus Papageorgiou - Scotia Capital

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tavis McCourt of Morgan Keegan.

Tavis McCourt - Morgan Keegan

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. I think two kind of follow-ups on the guidance, Edel, if you’re there -- the 9.2 to 9.9 million, it would seem to suggest a pretty mild channel [inventory] build. I just wanted to confirm that. And for this quarter, your channel inventory on a weeks of inventory basis probably went down a bit. I wanted to confirm that and you would think coming out of a recession or at least a stabilizing recession, maybe the carriers would start rebuilding some channel inventory as you guys clearly aren’t seeing that. Are you hearing anything to make you think at some point that will change?

Edel Ebbs

Management

No, you’re right that channel inventory did come down a little bit in the quarter and we are not really seeing [any indication] that carriers are looking to build and in some cases, some of them are still becoming even more lean. So yeah, you’re right that there hasn’t been any real change there. I mean, in terms of what we are seeing longer term, it’s really hard to know. Right now I think they are comfortable and seem to be operating their businesses and doing quite well with BlackBerry with the levels they have so at this point, we’re just not seeing any change built into our forecast.

Tavis McCourt - Morgan Keegan

Analyst

Great, and then on your own balance sheet, the inventories were down sequentially, which I think seasonally is a little bit strange to think about given -- heading into the holiday season. Was there anything specific there that would cause that?

Edel Ebbs

Management

No, not really, Tavis. I mean, we’ve been talking for a couple of quarters about working hard to manage working capital and all that kind of stuff, so -- but there’s nothing really to read into it beyond that.

Tavis McCourt - Morgan Keegan

Analyst

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Maynard Um of UBS.

Maynard Um - UBS

Analyst

Thank you. Can you just go into a little more detail about price elasticity? I mean, your unit growth at midpoint implies 15% which is actually pretty strong but it is still trending below the historical levels and you’ve still got -- you’ve got ASP cuts by some operators, you’ve got your lower ASP guidance. I actually would have though you would see much stronger unit elasticity. Can you just talk about the relationship there and when you think we start to see the benefit I guess of that more mainstream ASP pricing to show up in the volumes? Thanks.

James L. Balsillie

Management

Well, I think we are living it right now, to be perfectly honest, and we are not even into the sort of holiday season and -- I mean, we’ve got a lot of hero campaigns lined up. We’ve got a great roadmap. We have very powerful value propositions. We have incredibly high compatibility with the carriers strategically and Edel talked about some of these marketing brand campaigns, which the carrier feedback we are getting from it is very, very positive. So I really, really like our strategies and I really, really like our execution and I know we are doing all the right things and you just -- you know, you can only control inputs and outcomes are what they are and people try to guide to the best of their ability and -- but if these plans -- but obviously we’ve got a lot of execution risk, you’ve got timing, you’ve got certification and if you lose two or three weeks in a quarter, I mean, those of you remember, I mean, during last year products were two or three weeks late or a month late, and what happens is it shortened up what you had in September, October, November and then all of a sudden everything just ripped through November December and January and everyone -- and so who knows what’s going to happen? But what I do know is that based on some of the elasticity stuff that we are in now, it’s very, very promising and based on the hero program and based on the plans for the holiday season and our ad campaigns and our channel campaigns, this is really poised to go to another level and then -- and you have to make sure you invest into it, so -- you know and then…

Maynard Um - UBS

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your final question comes from Jeffery Kvaal of Barclays.

Jeffery Kvaal - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Thanks very much. It seems as though you have come in a little bit light on your OpEx spending for the quarter and that the guidance for the November quarter also implies an OpEx up-tick that is lower than what you have done in the past. Could you walk us through the thought process there? Thank you.

Edel Ebbs

Management

Most of that, Jeff, is just sales and marketing related and timing of spend, sometimes related to launch activities. The ramp-up in Q3 is really a lot of this branding campaign that we talked a lot about that’s going to be hitting in a number of markets shortly in the next few weeks. So that’s really all that is going on there. Sometimes it’s just the timing of some of these things moves around and that’s really all there is to it. It’s just a little bit difficult sometimes to forecast it right on.

Jeffery Kvaal - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Well, don’t get me wrong -- operating margin [inaudible] that, but Edel I guess it does raise the question of how much of the -- how much are you pushing on the 8520 and other new devices this quarter? I mean, will you be pushing less on them than you might have with two devices in prior November quarters?

Edel Ebbs

Management

No, I don’t think that’s true. I think we are getting more efficient in what we are able to do. I think that getting into hero programs and things like Jim talked about with some of the carriers is allowing us to leverage some of our own spend, more than maybe we used to be able to in the past.

Jeffery Kvaal - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay. And then it sounds as though we should not -- so you are targeting a gross margin in the November-ish range, that if ASPs go up, that would not really drive an up-tick in the gross margins?

Edel Ebbs

Management

Not necessarily -- I mean, it’s all driven by mix. ASP and gross margin, all of the products have different, slightly different profiles so it really depends on the mix so a change in ASP doesn’t necessarily mean that gross margin moves in the same direction.

Jeffery Kvaal - Barclays Capital

Analyst

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Edel Ebbs

Management

Operator, I think that’s all we have time for today.

Operator

Operator

Yes, that concludes the question-and-answer session.

Edel Ebbs

Management

Thank you. In closing, I would like to remind everyone there is a post view service available at 416-640-1917, passcode 21289982#, or you can listen to the call which has been recorded and is available on the investor relations section of our website at www.rim.com. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.