Cesar Rios
Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Credicorp's conference call on our earnings results for the second quarter of 2021. I hope you and your families are healthy. Official data indicates that the economy grew around 20% in the first half of 2021 and came close to hitting pre-pandemic levels. It is noteworthy that the construction sector grew 15% with respect to the first half of 2019. In addition to statistical rebound, recovery in the past few months has been boosted by a favorable external environment where copper prices remain high and our main trading partners have resumed growth. Regarding to the sanitary situation, mortality rates have fallen considerably after reaching a peak at the beginning of the second quarter. This improvements has been driven by a noteworthy uptick in the vaccination rates in June and July. Currently, around 37% of the adult population have received at least the first dose. Although this rate lags behind that registered by some peers in the region, the government's role is that all adults and children from 12 to 18-years will be vaccinated by year-end. All in all, we still expect that Peru GDP to rebound around 9% in 2021 due to a strong commodity prices and expansive monetary policy and fiscal policies. Political uncertainty in Peru has generated a negative impact on financial indicators. The exchange rate has depreciated more than 12% year-to-date, and the dollar has reached a record high despite the Central Bank's move to sell almost $6 billion year-to-date in 2021. An active intervention in FX markets via multiple instruments. Furthermore, foreign rates in domestic currency has exceeded bit at the table has also climbed to levels above the peak register in 2020. Despite the pandemic and political shocks, Peru continues to outperform peers in the region in terms of macroeconomic indicators. Our net international reserves currently represent 35% of GDP, our annual inflation rate stands at 3.8% and our public debt, which represents 37% of GDP is among the lowest in the region. Additionally, our banking system maintains high liquidity. Current political instability is rooted in decisions taken by the new government. Beginning with the move to appoint a highly controversial cabinet with limited technical chops questions regarding the direction that monetary policy will take as well as who will lead the sector continues to loom. Announcements have been made indicating that higher levels of state intervention are on the horizon via new public credit facilities fee regulations increased regulation for private health insurance, and structural changes in the private pension system. The Secretary's ability to implement his radical agenda may meet with significant obstacles and resistance. First Peru Libre has only 37 seats of 130 in Congress and with allies can contribute only five more votes. Second, it is worth noting that in the first round of elections, Pedro Castillo' secured only 19% of valid votes, which represents 10% of registered voters, and in the second round won by an extremely narrow margin of 44,000 votes less than 0.2%. Additionally, a recent data survey conducted between the second and the fourth of this month indicates that Castillo's approval rating is 39%, one week into his term one of the lowest initial ratings registered by a Latin American President in recent history. In the same survey, only 5% of those polled indicated that the Constitutional Assembly should be the government's top priority. In fact, the assembly is ranked sixth among seven priorities some believe, where the reactivation of the economy, improvements in the health system, and improvements in the quality of education were ranked first, second and third, respectively. Going into Credicorp results, let me highlight our quarter-over-quarter evolution. The loan portfolio rose 4.4% in the quarter in balances driven primarily by an uptick in structural loans in the wholesale banking and SME business segments. Net interest income grew 8.7% driven by an increase in structural loans, a drop in funding expenses and the fact that a one-off expense was recorded last quarter for liability management operations. In this context, NIM resumed growth and stood at 4.01%. Provisional expenses fell after client behavior register positive performance across sectors, which lead the cost of risk and a structural cost of risk to situate at 1.02% and 1.22% respectively this quarter. Core non-financial income which is composed fees and FX transactions grew 8.4% due to a construction considerable uptick in transactions. This evolution was offset by a contraction in non-core non-financial driven mainly by BCP, which sold long-term bonds at a loss to reduce the interest rates and stability of the available for sale portfolio. Insurance underwriting results continue to be impacted by COVID-19 related claims and include but not reported provisions in the lines of business. So they perform works, whoever the train has improved. The efficiency ratio improved 30 basis points boosted by income recovery. Net income at Credicorp totaled PEN699 million in the second quarter of 2021, which represents an increase of 5.9% quarter-over-quarter. Our return on equity continues its upward trend and situated at 11.3% at quarter end. In the first half of the year, ROE is stood at 10.9% within our guidance range. Our balance sheet remains strong with ample liquidity by adequate capital wages. I will briefly describe the results of the lines of business level, but provide further detail in the section of consolidated performance. Universal Banking drives our recovery. BCP’s Stand-Alone contributed PEN726 million in earnings, registering a return on equity of 18.1%. Core income registered notable growth at 80% quarter-over-quarter which was mainly driven by an uptick in the structural loss, a contraction in the funding costs and growth in transactions. BCP’s sold available for sale long-term bonds at a loss to reduce interest rates instability and partially offset the negative impact to our U.S. dollar loan position. This has strategies resolved, partially offset core non-financial income growth. The main driver of an uptick in profitability this quarter was the 83% quarter-over-quarter contraction in provisional expenses which reflected an improvement in client payment lows. Efficiency deteriorated 10 basis points quarter-over0quarter, mainly driven by higher digital marketing and mileage stability program expenses in line growth in vehicle sales and debit and credit card usage. BCP Bolivia’s ROE is stood at 8.2% which reflects a decrease in the appetite for risk and relative stability in the loan portfolio in a context marked by larger scale government-mandated loans program. Results were impacted by provisional reversal due to the inclusion of guarantees in the consumer portfolio, which was partially offset by new provisions to cover delinquencies. The provisions levels were equivalent to 4.72% of the total loan portfolio. Mibanco reduced to clear recovery this quarter. Net interest income growth due to an uptick in origination of lower risk structured loans, a drop in the funding costs and a reverse of interest income provisions made previously for our program portfolios. This positive evolution in need was partially offset by regulatory restriction on fees. Loan provisioning normalized in a context of an improvement in payment performance and growth in transactions. However, we are closely monitoring the 12% of this structural portfolio that we sustained within grace periods or past due. Colombia's results improved due to an uptick in disbursements over original volumes passes low due to social tensions. The focus is currently on maintaining adequate risk management workforce productivity and efficiency at the commercial level. Regarding insurance and pensions, this quarter Pacifico’s contribution continued to be impacted by higher COVID-19 related and IBNR provisions in the life business. Losses in this business has negatively affected a return to profitability at the group level. It is important to know that at quarter end claims and IBNR provisions began to fall in line with a drop in COVID-19 mortality. In property and casualty, growth in net premiums was offset by an increase in claims after mobility restrictions were lifted and activity levels rose. The corporate health insurance and medical services were affected by higher claims quarter-over-quarter with an increasing healthcare demand as the economy reopens. Our three months assets under management contracted 2.2% quarter-over-quarter, which reflects fund withdrawals for a total of PEN1.8 billion as of June under government-mandated taxes facilities in May. These were present 15% of total funds that are available for withdraw. We expect assets under management to continue to contract in the short term given that the ASP withdrawals can be made for the year. Despite these fees has remained stable due to growth and contribution for our fees. In Investment Banking and Wealth Management, the quarterly evolution indicates assets under management contracted minus 0.5% which was primarily attributable to Peruvian-based fund outflows from the asset management business due to political uncertainty. In Wealth Management. Assets under management remain basically a stable after local transmigrated abroad and to an offshore platforms. The contraction in asset management was accumulated by a devaluation in local currency. Income contribution expanded 15.8%, driven primarily by positive assaults in capital markets and wealth management. The gains at peak was fueled mainly by growth in the sales of securities and upfront fees from entering third-party funds to international platforms. It is worth noting that Investment Banking and Wealth Management lines of business continues to consolidate its regional presence and 76% of its assets under management are held outside Peru. The recent integration of funds to offshore platforms represents an opportunity to growing investment options for clients. Now, I will discuss Credicorp’s consolidated performance. Quarter-over-quarter, loan portfolio was 4.4% in ending balances and 2.2% in average daily balances. This evolution was driven primarily by an uptick in the structural loan origination and wholesale banking to campaigns in the fishing and agricultural sectors. Expansion was also fueled albeit to a lesser extent by growth in SME business, mortgage and consumer loans and by the evolution of the exchange rate. The mix of interest earning assets improved, marked by 7.8% quarter-over-quarter construction in the investment portfolio after BCP sold sovereign bonds and reduced exposure to long-term interest rate risk. The deposit needs improved and reflected an uptick in low cost demand and savings deposits in foreign currency that was partially offset by withdrawals of time and severance indeminity deposits. Additionally, the funding needs in foreign currency grew to low interest borrowing and through the execution of the remaining may hold redemption from a liability management operation. The consequent funding structure coupled with lower interest rates lead the funding costs full and expand at 1.18%. Both payment behavior and the structure portfolio profile evolved favorable this quarter. In Retail Banking, on time payments from loans due is stood at 95% driven by an uptick in the SME-Pyme segment. Quarter-over-quarter the high uncertainty portfolio which is composed of reprogrammed loans that are still within grace period, and overdue loans increased a slightly unrepresented 10% of structural a loss. It is important to note that this increase was driven by loans that were less than 15 days delinquent, which are considered the most recoverable. At Mibanco, on time payments improved in a context of lower explorations of rolling transactions and income due to economic reactivation. The high uncertainty portfolio contracted from 19% to 12% this quarter due to a positive evolution of payments. The government program goals for government, which are primarily underway and active in Peru began to expire in June 2021. By the end of the month, the balance was 7% lower than their record high in the fourth quarter of last year. The Retail Banking government program portfolio represents 65% of the total government program portfolio. By the end of June 54% of the retail portfolio was still within grace period, 30% have made the first payment, 14% has been reprogrammed and 2% has become overdue. In the chart on the right-hand side, you can see the profile for wholesale banking and for Mibanco. It is important to note that the new government reprogramming facilities expire next year. So the real deterioration levels will not be fully evident until 2022. It is important to know that the government guarantees back a substantial percentage of these portfolios. The NPL ratio for restructured loans in the wholesale banking registered no variation after the deterioration of a small number of middle market clients plus offset by an increase in loan volumes. In retail banking the ratio evolve positively in the individual segment, but was slightly attenuated by an increasing overview SME loan. Thus at Mibanco positive payment behavior and higher write-offs drove an improvement in NPL. As a result, Credicorp’s structural NPL dropped from 6.05% to 5.38%. The downward trend in the structural costs of risk was not worth. This improvement was driven by BCP’s standalone, where the ratio dropped 46 basis points situating at 1.11% in a context marked by an decrease in the probability of default. In this scenario, Credicorp’s structural cost of waste contracted 69 basis points from 1.92% to 1.23%. In year-to-date figures the structural costs of risk is stood at 1.51%. At the end of June, the provision stock was equivalent to 7.7% of Credicorp’s structural loan portfolio. Credicorp’s structural NIM increased 14 basis points quarter-over-quarter to stand at 4.32%. Recovery was attributable for more profitable assets needs, which was generated by growth in a structural loan origination, an improvement in the funding mix and a decrease in interest expenses. The positive evolution in NIM was mainly driven by BCP. We suggested NIM increase 64 basis points this quarter and reach 3.38%. This metric is recovering faster by means in line with a normalization of provision of our losses. Core income, which is composed of net interest income, fees and FX transaction was equated close to pre-pandemic levels. The increase in net interest income was primarily attributable to growing structural loans and a decrease in the funding costs. Fee income grew alongside an uptick in transactions on foreign transit at BCP and in brokerage fees at Credicorp Capital. Their first transactions also increased in the context of high demand for dollars. Non-core non0financial income this quarter results reflect a management decision to reduce interest rates and stability in the investment portfolio at BCP as indicated earlier. Additionally, we executed an active derivative trading strategy at BCP and Credicorp Capital, both of which bring very positive results. Insurance underwriting results continue to be severely impacted this quarter, which was mainly due to an increase in COVID-19 claims in the life business and to a lesser extent to higher claims in the property and casualty of business after mobility restrictions were lifted. On a quarter-over-quarter basis regarding net earnings premium, there was a slight contraction in life business associated with a decrease in sales of products in annuities and seasonal effect for renewals insurance for high risk occupations. In property and casualty, there was an uptick to renewals in the medical assisting line and an increase in cost due to new sales and renewals. In the life business, COVID-19 claims reached at peak in April before beginning of March somewhere accompanied by ongoing decline in IBNR provisions in a context of decline in mortality during the quarter. If the sanitary situation continues to improve, we expect this trend to continue. It is important to know that on a year-to-date, net earnings premiums grow in the life business through Cisco 5, which expanded the affiliate base for fees and contemplated a more favorable fee structure. This is pension fund related business. The risk of a third wave appears imminent. Nonetheless, vaccination rates and doubling masking mandates may mitigate impacts this time around. In the first-half of 2021, Credicorp’s efficiency ratio improved to 150 basis points year-over-year. Improvements were driven mainly by the positive evolution of income in the micro-finance and insurance and pension lines of business. Mibanco’s interest income well have due to growth of structural loans and a decrease in the cost of funding, while expenses remain under control. Pacifico’s income was boosted in the first half of this year due to repricing and the fact that it on a higher proportion of the SISCO V tender. Credicorp just shows an operating leverage of 6 percentile points, an accounting [ph] income acceleration controlled growing expanses. Year-over-year growing operating expenses during the first half this year reflects our commitment to digitalization and was generated primarily by cybersecurity and IT. Regarding distribution footprint resizing, it is worth noting that BCP is standalone and Mibanco reduced a number of total branches by 9% and 2% respectively year-over-year. In terms of liquidity, even after controlled flows of foreign currency, BCP’s Stand-Alone and Mibanco have maintained high levels of liquidity well above regulatory and internal limits. Regarding capital, each of our subsidiaries maintains adequate capital level, which ensures solvency. The slight increase in the core equity Tier 1 of BCP Stand-Alone and Mibanco was attributable to an uptick in retained earnings, which was driven by recovery of core subsidiaries this quarter. At BCP, we continue to work on key digital initiatives to achieve our objectives for experience and efficiency and ensure our competitiveness in the long-term. Alongside initiatives to accelerate digital investments, we seek to improve time to market and operating stability without losing sight of cyber risks. The number of new software releases more than doubled year-over-year this semester and the downtime for key channels fell 54% in the same period. Our aim for year-end is to fully comply with all these payments of the FFIEC cybersecurity assessment tool at the baseline evolving an intermediate level and fulfil 90% of all its payments at the advanced level. To-date, we have fulfilled 82% of this project. Client satisfaction was negatively impacted by an uptick in the demand for services, which coincided with a reduction in on-site service capacity with the pandemic. We moved swiftly to replenish our service capacity by leveraging digital services improve the client journey. Consequently, we have recorded satisfaction levels and are now shooting to exceed expectations. The effectiveness of our efforts to secure digital initiatives is reflected in the evolution of the pool of digital clients, which represented 55% of the total client base this quarter and continues to see growth. Exponential growth in digital transactions coupled with an increasing digital service in recent years led to repeat and resize our distribution model. Consequently, we reduced our branch network by 9% in the last 12 months. At Credicorp level, we are developing different FinTech initiatives and ecosystems to boost the group's potential. Later this year, we will be able to give you a much more detailed overview. Right now, I would like to comment on our progress with key specific initiatives. Yape now reached the 6.6 million user mark by June 21 and have added 1 million new clients to the banking system since 2012, Transactions grew fivefold. With regard to the figure reported for the same period last year. Recent integration with a Niubiz anticipate opens the ecosystem to payments to console sales, which will propel an additional increase in transactions indicators, such as frequency of use, cost of acquisition at NPS continues to grow. And we expect that this will be the case moving forward. In the second half of this year, Yape will provide an interesting monetization pipelines. We will share more information on this point as new features are released. Yape is now better prepared to operate independently at BCP and the decision making of results, culture and operating levels. Nonetheless, we'll have no intention of divesting in this business in the foreseeable future. Tenpo is the only thing with a digital wallet solution in Chile. Within a year of its lunch. Tenpo is the second largest solution in terms of number of users with a client base of 537,000 affiliates, with an inter mounted low level of safe transaction that is stand at 30%. High volumes and an a strong NPS performance indicator of 68%, we expect positive trends to continue. This represents an opportunity to continue growing our customer base as we consolidate in this market. Finally Tyba a digital initiative that began in Colombia to offer low ticket investments have hit the 293,000 users mark this quarter with $89 million in assets under management. Tyba is still have significant room to grow in Colombia. Additionally, Tyba was lunched this quarter include where we expect it to grow faster as we leverage our lending position in the market an extensive knowledge base. Now, let me talk about our sustainability learning. We have stated that honing our social focus is the core objective of our sustainability program. Our efforts has speeded up and in the first half of 2021, we progress towards several milestones. On the environmental front, we are pushing the group to mitigate and reduce carbon emissions to 3 prongs, carbon neutrality, environmental policy, and environmental management. It is worth noting that a new BCP was recognized by the Ministry of Environment for reducing the carbon footprint and was the first plant in Peru to won the Level 3 awards. With the support of industry experts, we have made progress in assessing our ESG risk management framework. Additionally, we have launched an ecofactory line with a sustainable textile complex. On the social from Yape and Mibanco drove our financial inclusion efforts on 1 million citizens and 35,000 SMEs were drove into the banking course. Financial education programs are BCP and Pacifico have also reached millions of people. We implemented a program where female board members meet and exchange views with female senior executive with eye on strengthening networks, increasing the disability of female talent and addressing gender equality challenges. We have also established directional goals to improve our gender imbalance, and adding clearly agenda perspective in our succession plans for senior executives. On the government front, we have included sustainability goals in corporate level incentive programs and have made further improvements on the compliance front. By year-end, we expect to report progress and relevant ESG initiatives and adhere to international reporting standards. We expect our overall our ROE for 2021, to remain within guidance given that favorable results in the banking businesses are expected to offset the recent favorable scenario in the insurance business. Peruvian real GDP growth is decelerating and our estimate for the end of the year is within the range. The loan portfolio growth in average daily balance is expected to decelerate even the uptick in the second-half of 2020 was generated by Reactiva deposits [ph]. Current uncertainty may impact low denomination at year-end. Net interest margin achieved an inflection point that recovery will be gradual. As such we expect NIM in 2021, to situate at the lower end of the guidance. The cost of risks wherever has improved faster than expected given the positive evolution of client payments. In this context, we expect to reduce the costs of race below our guidance range this year. Regarding efficiency, the 43.9% ratio cost in the first half of 2021 is slightly below our guidance. Nonetheless, we expect the levels to increase albeit with an expected range higher year-and expenses have reported. The outlook we are sharing today is for 2021. Although uncertainties remain on an extended horizon after evaluating different scenarios, we reaffirm our long-term businesses strategy. We are carefully monitoring the evolution on specific variables and are poised to make tactical changes to adapt to challenging situations. We will continue accelerating by regeneration to the digital strategy in each of our businesses, which coupled with our sustainable journey will ensure that we sustain growth efficiently. With these comments, I would like to start the Q&A session.