Earnings Labs

Ball Corporation (BALL)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 28, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ball Corporation First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Thursday, April 28, 2016. I would now like to turn the conference over to John Hayes, CEO of Ball Corporation. Please go ahead, sir. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Great. Thank you, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the company's first quarter 2016 results. The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. Some factors that could cause results or outcomes to differ are in the company's latest 10-K, and in other company SEC filings, as well as company news releases. If you don't already have our earnings release, it's available on our website at ball.com. Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found on our website. With regard to Ball's proposed offer for Rexam, and consistent with the requirements of the U.K. Takeover Code, we will limit our comments regarding the transaction to: number one, what has already been made public via the 2.7 and other public releases; two, where we are in the regulatory process; and three, an update of ongoing economic hedging and debt activities related to the proposed transaction, including the proposed sale of the Divestment business. Also note that there may be limitations regarding the depth of our business commentary and certain other items we would normally discuss on our quarterly earnings conference call due to the nature of the proposed transaction. Given the nature of our proposed offer, today's…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The first question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for all the commentary. I guess the first question I had, just from a detail standpoint; I'd missed some of the volume statistics you had relayed regarding beverages. Could you – beverage cans. Could you quickly go through that? And then, to the extent that you can comment, what effect did you see from weaker beer production in Brazil as it relates to your volumes? And then, a couple follow-ons. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. George, this is John. I think what Scott had said in his prepared remarks, North America was up mid-single-digits, Brazil was up low-single-digits, Europe was down a little bit but that was exclusively because of exports into Africa slowing down. The Continental Europe was actually up low-single-digits, about a point, point-and-a-half, in-line with the overall market. And then China was down upper-single-digits as we proved – as we pruned some of that very low margin or no margin business. From a beer perspective in Brazil, you're right, there was some – there one of the customers did have an issue in one of the facilities. It was a little bit soft, but in our portfolio, our customers, as I said, we were up a couple percent.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that primer there, John. Good morning to you. I guess the other question I had, this isn't the first time that China has been a topic not necessarily for the right reasons on one of your earnings calls, and certainly you have company, so you're not the only participant that's had some challenges there. Are you getting to a point where you need to – recognizing you've been already limiting capital, are you getting to a point where you maybe need to consider other strategic options or strategies in China to improve the performance? And if so, can you provide a bit more color there? And then last one and I'll turn it over, obviously a lot has changed in the tinplate market over the years, but closing Weirton, how will you manage all the metal decorating and processing that you need for your tinplate business around the rest of the country? Thank you. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, George. Let me talk a bit about China. China is a sore, and there's no hiding from that. It's getting inordinate attention at our company right now. What I'd describe is operationally, we continue to drive a hell of a lot of costs out of the business, in the range of $30-plus million this year alone. The pricing environment is just quite, quite challenging. The only thing I can really say beyond that is strategically we're assessing and continue to assess how to make this a better business. As you all know, we're not in the business to lose EVA dollars, and so it's a very high focus for us. On the tinplate side, there has been a lot of change in that business. I think the Weirton, West Virginia closure, while unfortunate, allows us to spread a lot of that cutting and coating capability into other facilities, and that's exactly what we're doing. So it's a capacity rationalization play at the end of the day, getting closer to our customers.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

All right. Thanks. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question. Mehul M. Dalia - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hi. Good morning. It is actually Mehul Dalia sitting in for Ghansham. How are you doing? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good. Thanks. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good. Mehul M. Dalia - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Great. It looks like InBev is adding some additional specialty can capacity via their metal container subsidiary. We've seen some other customers do that as well. Are these one-offs or is it basically the customer not being happy with how fast the industry is adding capacity in North America? What are your thoughts on that? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think what I'd say is Anheuser-Busch InBev have been in the can business for 25, 30 years now. And they have a asset base that they continue to look, we're aware obviously that they're putting bottles in. They're the only one making bottles for themselves. As you know, we actually have a large and very growing bottle portfolio in ours. And so I'm not – I think these are more one-offs than systematic. And that's how we're viewing it. They're looking at making their own needs for their own capacity. Mehul M. Dalia - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay, great. And how much did you spend on start-up costs in 1Q? And how much are you expecting in 2016? And also, can you just remind us how much you spent in 2015? Just trying to see what the delta is year-over-year? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Tyler Langton with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Tyler J. Langton - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just of the decline in Americas and Asia, could you break out a little bit what was China? And were the – of the $7 million of start-up costs, was that all from Monterrey? And was that all in the segment or was there also, I think, some in steel aerosol? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. The $7 million in that segment is Monterrey. There was also a couple million on the Food side. But – and all the rest of that is really China. The pricing swing from year-over-year, re-pricing inventories as you come to the first quarter, so you take kind of a double hit. And that's why as we move through the year the loss will moderate and the cost-out actions start to take hold, and so you'll add – it'll have less of an impact as we move through the year. And then with the investments that we're making that come online here as we move through the year, those will more than offset the China pricing at the second half of the year. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: The investments in Monterrey and other. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. I'm sorry. Correct.

Tyler J. Langton - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Great. And then, Scott, did you say, I guess, starting in the third quarter, profits in this segment would be up year-over-year, both in 3Q and 4Q? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yes. That's correct.

Tyler J. Langton - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

And then is that – I mean do you think, I don't know, the second quarter, but could profits for the segment be up for the entire year, do you think? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, we have to wait and see how volumes shake out. I think it'll be – there's probably still a little bit of a drag just because again some start-up costs in Monterrey will still continue in the second quarter. It gets closer but then the back half of the year looks meaningfully better.

Tyler J. Langton - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah. And just a final question, Brazil for the remainder of the year, just given your mix and the conditions down there. Any thoughts on what volumes could look like for the year? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. We're starting to go into their seasonally slow period of time and so we, as we said in the beginning of the year, we expected modest growth not necessarily from overall volume but from share mix relative to glass, and we're still seeing that happen. As we enter the seasonally slow, I do think we're going to get a very modest uplift because of the Olympics. Remember, that's just in Rio, but Rio is a very densely populated area, so I don't think our views of 2016 have changed materially at all from when we were on the call in January.

Tyler J. Langton - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Got it, great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, there. John, with everything going on, I think I want to ask you a question about Aerospace. You said, I know on the last call, that I think the backlog was like literally – it looks like it's grown 50%. It was, what, $617 million. Now it's over $900 million. And I know you gave us some sign that you thought – some mention of like $800 million in near-signed business, and so the question is, have things really kicked in a little bit stronger than you would have expected three months ago or six months ago for that business in terms of the backlog? And maybe you could comment a little bit on the quality of the backlog, what proportion is fixed price versus cost plus? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: So your first question, has anything changed relative to our expectations? The short answer is, no. You know you always have timing issues of when you get signed because some of it's out of our control when you have to have various government agencies go through their approval processes. We've had some in the first quarter, some in April, as you heard. And even as we expect going into the June/July, whether it's June, whether it's July I can't tell you right now, but I know that we still have a fair amount of projects that we call won, not booked, which is not in our backlog but we won it, it's just we have to go through the signatory process and the funding process with the government. So nothing has changed on that front. From a mix perspective, I think I talked about this on the January call, there's not an appreciable difference in the mix relative to fixed price versus cost plus. There could be a little bit more of cost plus in the overall scheme of this new business won, only because a lot of it's new technology, which I think is good. And our folks have been executing very well on those types of things. So a lot of it's in the DoD, which is both from a satellite perspective, as well as a sensor perspective, and then also in the NASA side, where we haven't done a tremendous amount with NASA because their budget's been so constrained, but we've been able to do a very good job or weave our way back into that and are doing several neat things for NASA as we go forward there.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a quick one, a follow-up is on – I mean look at the guidance items that Scott gave us, whether it is EBITDA, et cetera, there is no change from the last call, and you did mention that things progressed as you thought they would in the first quarter, but maybe a little weaker than what the consensus was looking for. And I guess the question is, does your full-year outlook on the – is there any reason the EPS – and again, this is a little bit of hopefully a fiction question because of the change that'll take there in June, take place there in June, but leaving that aside, would your earnings per share view have changed since January? In other words, would there maybe have been a small shift out of the first quarter into the back nine months of the year? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'll take this and maybe, Scott can chime in. Nothing has changed relative to our expectations. We had said in the January that we expected the first quarter to be soft, given China re-pricing, given the year-over-year comps in Food and Household Products, and then the start-up in the first quarter that, as Scott mentioned a minute ago, would begin to wane as we get into the second quarter and certainly the second half of the year. So nothing has changed from that perspective. I will say this: it is a bit challenging for us. And I have said this for a year now in our opening comments that given the U.K. Takeover Code, we have certain restrictions on what we can say in terms of profit forecasts. And that does create some challenges for us to be able to articulate and communicate in a way that we normally would do so. So – but to answer your question directly and to reiterate it, nothing has changed from our perspective.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Philip Ng - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Hey. Good morning, guys. Glad you were able to reiterate your synergies, but where were some of the upside coming from since the amount of assets being divested is a little larger than I expected? Also, can you talk about some of the working capital savings potential? If we look at the key working capital metric for Rexam versus Ball, there seems to be a pretty sizable opportunity. Thanks. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, the synergies, they're really the same buckets we've been talking about all along. There's four different buckets: G&A, manufacturing, sourcing and kind of best practices. So those haven't really changed; the buckets haven't really changed either. There's always a little bit of puts and takes but essentially it's the same as we thought 15 months ago when we first started talking about it.

Philip Ng - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Okay. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: On the second part of that question... John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Capital. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Oh, yeah. The working capital. Yeah, that's obviously one of the areas that we expect to get after right after close. We manage our balance sheet every day of the year. And so that's one area in which we think there can be a meaningful amount of cash taken out over the course of some period of time, probably a year or two.

Philip Ng - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Okay, but you wouldn't expect anything structural with the Rexam assets where you wouldn't be able to flex the working capital initiatives you have, legacy Ball, right? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No, again I think we have to stand by what Scott said given the Takeover Code rules.

Philip Ng - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Okay, got you. And I guess another question for Scott, how are you guys thinking about leverage longer term? Is there like a threshold you want to keep in terms of 3 times, 2.5 times, going forward post this deal? And how should we think about your ability to buy back stock from a timing standpoint? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Well, I think we're going to lever up here at the close. And it's also kind of the peak of our working capital borrowing season, so it'll be a little bit higher. The game plan is to drive that down closer to three times before we start buying back stock, but because of the asset sale was a little bit larger than what was probably initially thought about, we'll probably get to that leverage – that leverage area a little bit quicker where we can start buying back stock faster. Longer term, once we get through all of this and get those synergies, then we look at our capital structure. And we'll think about where we want to be longer term.

Philip Ng - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed.

Okay. Very helpful, guys. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thanks. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mark Wilde with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Good morning. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Good morning. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Is it possible, Scott, to get any sense of just how much the aluminum premiums helped Europe in the first quarter? Those guys really gave you a nice going-away present. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. It was a little more than €10 million in the first quarter.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Okay. All right. And then, John, you said really nothing had changed since January, but has the situation in China actually been even worse than you might have expected or weaker than you might have expected? John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, yeah, I said – what I said is from a financial point of view what our expectations are relative to what's developing (27:59), nothing has changed. The one other thing in China that has – that was a headwind that we haven't really expressed explicitly was the volumes being softer. Some of that was that we consciously made a decision that we're not making cans for practice. The overall China market has slowed down a little bit. It's still growing, don't get me wrong. But I think those two things create environment where our volumes were down, and that was a headwind in addition.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Okay. The last thing I had, I know you have – the main focus for you is these start-ups and then the integration of Rexam over the next couple of years, but if you looked a little further down the road, what are the most interesting opportunities if you look two, three, four years down the road in terms of opportunities to create value at Ball? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: You know what? Let – if I could ask you please, let's park that until after we close the transaction and then we will make sure that we are going to be very, very much communicative in what we see in terms of the next one, three, five years, both operationally and strategically.

Mark William Wilde - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Sounds good. Good luck. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thanks. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is a follow-up from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Please proceed.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thanks, everyone. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Two questions again, recognizing it is not your largest segment in Food and Household. Can you comment at all as to whether there's been any adjustment in pricing this year related to things like meat com clauses and that sort of thing or has pricing been relatively stable? Or if it's not, has it been purely just pass-through of metal? Then I had a follow-on. Again, to the extent that you can comment. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. As you know, we run on a pass-through model, and that's really the only thing that's been going on. The pricing environment's been relatively stable.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that, John. And then, the last question I have, and back to Weirton conceptually, in the past when we've seen companies adjust their metal decorating footprint, it's a tricky practice and there have been times where capacity have been moved from one facility to another and the initial stages don't go as smoothly as expected. What are you doing now, given, again, all the irons that you have in the fire, in managing the metal decorating process such that when it does come up, the coating, the printing, not that there's a lot of printing done on the food side anymore, but comes up to spec? Thank you, guys, and good luck in the quarter. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, George. You raise a good point. What I will point out is over the last 18 to 24 months we have not been performing well in that part of the business. So as – in Weirton. And so as a result we've already had to move some things into other facilities. And so that's – I think most of that's behind us. There's always a level of complexity that when you're taking a facility out and having to redistribute volumes, but a lot of that's already been happening because of the performance in Weirton.

George Leon Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

All right. Thank you, John. I'll turn it over. Good luck in the quarter. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thanks. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, George.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Chris Manuel with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Good morning, gentlemen. Just a couple questions for you. One, if you could, I hate to keep coming back to the China and the other piece, but if I maybe try to approach it from the perspective of your segment was down, I think, $23 million year-over-year, if you could give us buckets and maybe size them. Is that a quarter, one-third of that currency? I think you said startups were about $7 million, so I'm guessing that's about one-third of it. Was China the other bucket or how, Scott, would you want us to think about that? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. No, you have it exactly right. China was the other part of that, both from a pricing standpoint and a volume standpoint. And I mentioned earlier as you had to lower prices, you had to lower the value of the inventory, so that's why you took a little bit bigger hit in the first quarter than what you'll see as we move through the year. And then the cost-out actions will start, we'll continue to gain momentum as we get into the back half of the year. And so for that segment in total, the back half of the year looks better.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Okay, but is it about one-third of the delta? Does that sizing sound right or am I thinking about it incorrectly? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. No. Yeah, your sizing was right. It was roughly $7 million in start-up costs...

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Okay. I thought I – the reason I'm thinking about it is I thought I heard you mentioned earlier, too, that you had about $30 million of costs you have been taking out in China, and that just sounded like a really, really big number. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: It is a big number. That's a full year number. That wasn't for the first quarter, that was for the full year. But as I said, the unfortunate thing is that we've been making a lot of great progress in our North American business and in our South American, Brazilian business. And it's being masked by China. That is why I said that operationally we are driving the hell out of the costs there because we've got to get our costs as low as possible; but then strategically we have to assess how we make this a better business.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

All right, so the $30 million of costs-out is a reference for the whole segment? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: For the whole year for China.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

For the whole year, for China. Okay. That's incredibly impressive. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. Our folks are doing a heck of a job. It's just disappointing that the pricing environment is so bad.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Okay, no, that's very impressive for the size of the business. If I could switch gears a second and talk a little bit about Mexico, I know you've got a number of customers tied to the plant and the multi-lines you're sticking in there. But one of the – probably the biggest one in the region I think you're tied to is experiencing some delays, we have read, in bringing the brewery up online. How does that or does that change anything with respect to what you're doing in bringing capacity on stream? Do you still provide the cans regardless of who is brewing the beer or how does that process work? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. No. Let's put this in context. They're not experiencing delays; they're growing so fast that they can't keep up with their demand. That's what's happening. And so as they build out their existing facility and they've announced a new facility, we are supplying them a significant amount. I forget their growth rates, not only as beer, which is very strong, it's the fastest-growing beer company I think in the world right now, but then they are underweighted to cans. And so there's a double benefit for us. And so our business is going as fast as they can take them.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

So perhaps, I know you have got one line in now. I think you're starting a second. I think you may have sized it for three. Is there a reasonable opportunity to build that the whole way out in the next 12, 18 months? Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: We believe there is. And we'll talk more about that when we can.

Chris D. Manuel - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Okay. That's helpful. That's the last of my questions. Thanks, gentlemen. Scott C. Morrison - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thanks, Chris. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Hayes, it appears at this time that there are no further questions on the phone lines. John A. Hayes - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Great. Well, thank you. Thank you all for listening in. And as we've said, we look forward to speaking to you later on this summer in a much more earnest conversation.