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Braskem S.A. (BAK)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, May 9, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Braskem's First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. Today with us, we have Carlos Fadigas, CEO; Mario Augusto Da Silva, CFO; and Roberta Varella, Head of Investor Relations. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We have a simultaneous webcast that may be accessed through Braskem's IR website, www.braskem.com.br/ir. The slide presentation may be downloaded from this website. Please feel free to flip through the slides during the conference call. There will be a replay facility for this call on the website. We remind you that questions, which we will be answered during the Q&A session, maybe be posted in advance on their website. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on beliefs and assumptions of Braskem management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Braskem and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference call over to Roberta Varella, Head of IR. Ms. Varella, you may begin your conference.

Roberta Varella

Analyst

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in another Braskem earnings conference call. Today, we'll be commenting on our results for the first quarter of 2014. We would like to remind you that pursuant to Federal Law 11638 as of 2007, the results present in today's presentation reflect the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards. Note also that due to the decision to maintain its investments in quantiQ, which is the company responsible for chemical product distribution, Braskem will state its cumulative quarterly results for 2013 to include the results of [indiscernible]. The financial information in today's presentation was reviewed by the panel's external auditor. Let's go to the next slide where we will begin our [indiscernible]. And on Slide 3, we present the highlights of the first quarter of 2014. The capacity utilization rate of Braskem's crackers averaged 85%, mainly reflecting the scheduled maintenance shutdown of the main line at the cracker [indiscernible] and operational problems. The Brazilian market of thermoplastic resins totaled 1.3 million tons, similar to the level of demand in the fourth quarter of 2013. Braskem's sales were practically stable at 901,000 tons. Compared to the first quarter of 2013, licensed demand grew by 3%, while Braskem sales fell by 2%. In line with its strategy to concentrate its investments in the petrochemical industry, Braskem divested the asset forming the Water Treatment Unit located at the Triunfo Complex for BRL 350 million and recognized a gain of BRL 277 million in the quarter. Braskem's consolidated EBITDA was BRL 1.6 million, driven by the gain from the divestment of nonstrategic assets, the stability in the petrochemical spreads in international markets and the depreciation of 5% in the Brazilian real in comparison to the last quarter, In U.S. dollars, EBITDA was $690. In this context, the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll first go from Conrado Vegner, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Conrado Vegner - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

Just wanted to focus a bit on the trend you're seeing in the second quarter, in terms of what you're seeing relative to the first quarter and -- both in terms of volume and pricing. And then looking out a little bit longer, and you have made some comments about the need for the government to find ways to stimulate the industry. I was wondering what types of actions you think the government should consider or perhaps is considering? How likely that is and what -- how you think that might change the outlook over the next 1 to 2 years? Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Hi Frank [ph], good afternoon. it's Carlos Fadigas, speaking. Regarding the second quarter of the year, I think comments on the basic -- on the more important aspects of performance for the second quarter. First of all, there's the international spread, we don't see significant change on domestic spread in both first and second quarter. I think we have to keep an eye on what happens in Asia, Far East, especially China. Because the improvement in spread over the year -- the last year or so has a lot to do with improvement in economic performance, both for in Europe and China sustaining the level of economic activity it had in the past. So if you see further reduction in growth in China, that may change from the probably better than I've been told [indiscernible] China major that. Apart from that, we've seen the spread pretty much where they are right now. In terms of volume of sales and then briefly in Europe and U.S. a doing fine, actually better than last year. We see a very sustained growth in the U.S. that's [indiscernible] the kind of growth in Europe so I don't…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

My question is, if your company is considering importing naphtha rather than buying it from Petrobras due to the increasing prices of the spread between imported and national naphtha has now? That would be my question -- Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Hi, Andre [ph]. Thank you for your question, for your comment. We, as you know, we are already towards 8 million tons of naphtha and we buy roughly 7 million ton of naphtha from Petrobras. My answer to your question is, no, we do not want to import additional naphtha. There are few reasons for that. First of all, we don't believe it makes much sense to run a petrochemical segment in Brazil, and when I talk about the petrochemical industry in Brazil, more than Braskem, because Braskem, it had a chemical plant that are supplied directly by Braskem. But Braskem is the first step in the production chain. And the production chain that had several -- there were hundreds of plants and -- in all the different companies. And together we will present roughly this third, fourth largest import [indiscernible] industrial GDP. It's a relevant in segment in the [indiscernible]. It was not due to run on imported naphtha. It doesn't make sense to run an entire segment of the Brazilian industry on imported naphtha. And more than that, we view Petrobras produces enough naphtha to keep a supply of rosin, improve rosin the whole petrochemical was to [indiscernible]. Some of the naphtha right now could be -- is being used -- is being added to the gasoline, too. To provide gasoline, Brazil has had a huge growth in demand for gasoline and even in [indiscernible] the petrochemical segment. I have also to tell you that Petrobras is in discussion we've had with them, our belief is that they understand the need to have the local industry supplied with not only by local [indiscernible], suddenly capture, it's important for us to import more than what we already import. And in [indiscernible] we're going to find a way together to find a price formula and an equation that actually isn't just bid-stamping. One final thing to add to that, is that we've been working very hard to come both should stand in between the 2 companies in a way to create, that is to accommodate the different feel in our --the naphtha [indiscernible]. And that we could find other ways to make money together that could help us compensate for the difference in perspective on what should we be a cause of not to be [indiscernible] Petrobras to be [indiscernible] in their search the petrochemical segment in the review.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Gustavo Gattass from Banco BTG Pactual, would you like to make a questions.

Gustavo Gattass - Banco BTG Pactual S.A., Research Division

Analyst

I have 2 quick questions for you. The first one, on the market share loss that we had from the quarter, So just wanted to touch base. Do you guys see that as any structural change in the way that the business is going or is that just, thankfully, a one-off part of the story? And the second one, I just want to touch base that the press release talks about a pension fund charge. Yet on your presentation, there's no indication of an adjustment as a one-off for that. I just wondered if you could talk a little bit about what that is and what it means for your EBITDA in the future and for the first quarter? Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Gustavo, thanks for the questions. Regarding the first question, market share. We read 65%, 67.5% market share. And you know that in the past, is that we'd like to have a market share around 70%. So it actually means that we'd rather have 70-plus, licensed, we have 71% about a year ago. So I don't see that a consequence of circled [ph] change. It these are very competitive and tough market, we know that. It was even market has actually translated around high 60s, roughly market share, I mean high 60s, low-70s. So we had to be pleasant to in 2012. And then in '11, we grew to 70 plus and in 2012, and then back through 70, around 70. So one important information is that it's not -- I don't think that's a structural change. It is the consequence of also -- it's really the consequence of how we price our products. Like we said marginally charge [indiscernible] of the price of the imported [indiscernible] and therefore, the market share within reach and we…

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. [indiscernible] Should I think about your EBITDA as being have been BRL 65 billion bigger or was it charged somewhere else? Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: You should think of the EBITDA, that on a recurring basis, should have been over [ph] $65 million -- BRL 65 million.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Christopher Buck from Barclays would like to make a question.

Christopher Buck - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

First, I just wanted to see if you could clarify for us a little bit some more on the antidumping. If you can tell us what the potential financial impact will be, that will be helpful. Second, if you could, you guys have done a bunch of liability management exercises this year already. Any comments about any other plan you might have for the rest of the year? And then though, finally, just a quick housekeeping issue. I had seen a change in the 4Q '13 revenue number. That was on your prior release versus the one in this release, and I was just wondering if there was an adjustment there. I didn't see it in the release but I'm wondering why there was a change there? Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Christopher I'll start with your question on antidumping [indiscernible] and then I'll pass on to Mario da Silva, [indiscernible] upon liability management and then will comment on the adjustment you just mentioned. What we got was a temporary antidumping protection against PP imported from India, South Africa and South Korea. At a specific point in the past, these 3 countries represented roughly 50% of [indiscernible]. It doesn't mean that we see a 50% drop on import, what is [indiscernible] in that case is that they either keep coming but at different price point because the antidumping protection is in place, or they come from different origins. This temporary right was given to us at the beginning of January. And therefore, in fact, [indiscernible] in the first quarter of the year. So that's one way of answering your question. We do believe that it has prevented us -- it has prevented from an additional loss in market share, and that's one consequence of that. Having said that, we do hope that we still grow market share as we move forward. So either it's on polypropylene only either it's for these 3 countries and actually what we've seen in the past was that some of the flow of import works its way somehow around this and that implies that if we know [ph] this sometimes the origin price can go [indiscernible] price and the end result is the informal [ph] price, we [indiscernible] would know that if we [indiscernible], as much as [indiscernible] will for them. But we manage to hold market share as a consequence of that. I know the thing that we lost the market share but as I said in previous questions it has also to do with [indiscernible]. So this margins is all market share. I'll pass to Mario who wish to comment on the liability management.

Mario Augusto da Silva

Analyst

Christopher, this is Mario. Regarding the liability management. I mean, it's important to mention were in a petrochemical industry by definition is an industry of very long cycles. As a consequence of debt, the exercise that we do here is to try to have a debt profile, as long as possible. This year we give 2 exercise of liability management, the first one was in January. We issued a 10-year transaction $500 million and we bought back the bonds maturing on '17, '18 and 2020. And we added to that transaction 15 days ago, 2 weeks ago, $215 million. In the future, the work that we do here, every time that we see an opportunity a good moment in the market we buy it eventually and go again to the market in another exercise. But again, the target is obviously to have a negative [ph] debt profile in the [indiscernible], given the long cycles that we have within the petrochemical industry. The last point that you had, I'll pass to Roberta to comment on the revenue of difference that you found.

Roberta Varella

Analyst

Christopher, this is Roberta. And remember that by the end of last year, we decide to keep our investment [indiscernible] it was just quarter of what we had, it was a quarterly adjustments. So you can see now we're really talking results [indiscernible] at table by the end May, in release in the appendix that will show you all the FX that we have quarter-over-quarter. Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Let me just to add to that, the -- when we had quantiQ, our chemical distribution business up for sale, we -- the auditor asks us to segregate all the numbers from quantiQ from the consolidated Braskem income statement. So throughout most of the year '13 or the year '13, we had the consolidated Braskem numbers, not including quantiQ. And now we are including quantiQ. and to make it comparable first quarter with the first quarter of '13, we had to add quantiQ back to the beginning of '13, so it's comparable with the first quarter of '14.

Roberta Varella

Analyst

Yes, [indiscernible] we are adjusting on a quarterly basis because I don't know if you remember, in fourth quarter, we give everything in the fourth quarter of 2013. Well at that time that we decided that we we're not selling quantiQ. So now to be comparable, then we are adjusting the first quarter of 2013 with the first quarter of 2014. I don't know if it's clear.

Christopher Buck - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

No, that's great. And maybe just one additional question would be, you guys have provided some pretty clear margin guidance for the rest of the year. I know there's a lot of different factors that go into that. But any additional thoughts about where we should think about EBITDA margins coming out for the year in a whole or should we just think about that as being status quo and go with the guidance you gave previously? Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Well, sometimes it's tough for us to answer the question on where we see the EBITDA on the next quarter, you're asking about the whole year. But let me tell you that, if we look at the whole year of 2014, it seems irrelevant that could change the performance we've had in the first quarter would be associated with what happened in Asia, with the slow down the economy in China. What happens with exchange rates, it's relevant. We had BRL 2.36 for dollar in the first quarter already. If the reais, Brazilian reais gets stronger, it reduces our EBITDA generation. If the Brazilian reais gets weaker, it's good for the performance of the company. In terms of economic performance, the consensus for Brazil economic growth at this point is roughly 1.6% EBITDA growth. I don't see, at this point, changing materially so I don't think big surprise would come from there. So if you want a forecast for the year, what I would do is to take the first quarter and then play with these variables, according to your perspective of these variables to try to come up with a whole year EBITDA. And I think those are the most relevant things to take into consideration. That's a probably answer we can give to you, given the uncertainties around economic growth, exchange rate and some of these other variables.

Operator

Operator

Fernando [ph] from GBN [ph] would you like to make a question.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I have just 2 brief questions. The first one is regarding [indiscernible] the constitution [ph]. I was wondering if time premium wonder what's going to be [indiscernible]. And the second one is if you see any further benefit in Mexico, after the one [indiscernible] secondary loss have been [indiscernible] . Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: [indiscernible] you probably have some problem with the audio. I'd like to, if you could repeat the question please, we have some trouble understanding them. [indiscernible] a little bit closer to the phone or something like that to help us understand you.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

My first question is regarding the [indiscernible] acquisition. I was wondering if you have any timeframe whenever it's going to be complete. And the second one is regarding the Ethylene XXI project. Did you see any sort of benefit or do you think secondarily, that, that relationship pertains to the companies? Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Okay, I will start with your question on Ethylene [ph] Grupa [ph]. And then I'll move to the question on the Ethylene XXI project. First of all where we are on the [indiscernible] position It's a process to go through. Right now, the Brazilian [indiscernible] commission [indiscernible] resolution. They have based on how they classified the resolution, is a complex one. And they have roughly 300 days, 10 months. We started -- we filed the case with the [indiscernible] January this year so roughly around October we'd have, October-November we'd have a final decision. I do hope if ever they reach a final decision, it's a positive one for us. I do hope they reach a little bit sooner than that. But that how our [indiscernible] it can go. In Argentina, we also have filed for public offer, change of control of public offer. We had to do that because certain people they know is a public company [indiscernible] in the stock exchange. The monetary -- the capital market authority in Argentina is analyzing our proposal to come up with a conclusion ready. It's a valid proposal [indiscernible] and then afterwards, that will be presented to the minority stakeholders of certain group. Having said all that, I think we might be on track the critical path, the longer path [indiscernible] first. We have [indiscernible] that [indiscernible] is a global market and therefore we don't see a concentration that could jeopardize competition on the…

Operator

Operator

I will turn over to the company for closing remarks. Carlos José Fadigas de Souza Filho: Well, I will be very brief. Thank you very much for participating in this call. We remain focused on the true parallel [indiscernible], first of all; optimizing profitability of the assets we already have. In that line, we are working to improve the business environment in Brazil to the extent [ph] at the Brazilian industry. The antidumping measure is a consequence of debt. The tax incentives has brought [indiscernible] is actually another extent [ph] Of that. The next quarter is [indiscernible] -- is another example of that and our constant efforts to keep increase market share is also [indiscernible] of debt. We also have launched a program to support our customers. It's called TIC [ph]. I hope the translation of that would be a continuous [ph] problem for the tax [ph] industry, while we support innovation, export of transformed material, the products produce by our customers and so on. So as we work on the current asset that we have trying to increase profitability, we also work on, as I said, a parallel agenda to give you asset [indiscernible] to remain competitive. That's the case for Mexico where the assets, products [ph] in the United States, where the content [ph] project in the state of Rio De Janeiro in Brazil, and also the [indiscernible]. So as we work on that, it's always a positive to better EBITDA coming from the business we have right now, as we have improved from the first quarter. And I think we've got the benefits [ph] of the first quarter of last year. So thank you again for your interest, and I wish you all have a good weekend. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's Braskem's earnings conference call. You may disconnect your line at this time. And have a nice day.