Paul Donofrio
Analyst · Autonomous Research. Please go ahead
Good morning, everyone. I'm starting on slide 10 since Brian already covered the P&L. Overall, compared to the end of Q4; the balance sheet grew $23 billion, driven by the equity financing business. Liquidity remained strong with average global liquidity sources of $546 billion and all liquidity metrics remained well above requirements. Long-term debt increased $4 billion, common shareholders’ equity increased $1.7 billion from Q4, as the value of our AFS debt securities benefited from the decline in loan and interest rates, thereby increasing AOCI. Partially offsetting the increase was the return of more capital than we earned this quarter. We returned $7.7 billion, or 112% of the net income available to the common through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. Turning to regulatory metrics, total loss absorbing capacity rules became effective in January, and at the end of March our TLAC ratio comfortably exceeded our minimum requirements. Our CET1 standardized ratio was flat at 11.6% from Q4 and remained well above our 9.5% regulatory requirement. The ratio was flat, because the increase in AOCI mentioned earlier was offset by higher RWA primarily in global markets. Turning to slide 11, I want to spend a few moments on NII given the changes in the rate environment. Net interest income on a GAAP, non-FTE basis was $12.4 billion; $12.5 billion on an FTE basis, compared to Q1 2018 GAAP NII was up $606 million or 5%. The improvement was driven by the value of our deposits as interest rates rose, as well as loan and deposit growth, partially offset by lower loan spreads. On a linked-quarter basis, GAAP NII was down $128 million. In Q1, we benefited from yields rising on our floating rate assets as short-term rates rose. We were also disciplined with respect to deposit pricing, and we benefited from loan and deposit growth, particularly commercial loan growth. However, higher short-term rates also increased the cost of our long-term debt and other global market funding costs. Additionally, lower mortgage rates muted the benefits from increased short-term rates. The net of all these things was still a benefit in the quarter. However, this net benefit only partially mitigated the seasonal impact in Q1 from two less days of interest, which costs us roughly $180 million. Net interest yield of 2.51% improved 9 basis points year-over-year, but was down 1 basis point linked quarter. Deposit rates in our Wealth Management and Global Banking businesses increased however, we saw minimal movement in our consumer business. Overall, the average rate paid on interest bearing deposits of 160 -- of 76 basis points rose 9 basis points from Q4 and is up 40 basis points versus Q2 2018. That compares to an average increase in Fed funds of 97 basis points year-over-year. Turning to the asset sensitivity of our banking book, the drop in long-end rates increased our assets sensitivity, compared to year-end. In addition, we are now modeling modestly lower deposit pass-through rates given our experience in this rate cycle. Given the recent moves in rates, I thought, I would provide some perspective on NII for the rest of the year. On a full year basis, NII grew 6% in 2018, in a rising rate environment and an economy that grew approximately 3%. The economy is expected to grow more moderately in 2019. And rate expectations have been lowered. Plus, we have some seasonal headwinds in Q2. But through loan and deposit growth, and picking up two additional days of interest over the next couple of quarters. We would expect growth in NII to be consistent with or slightly better than growth of the general economy. More specifically in Q2 typically sees higher funding of client activity in global markets related to the European dividend season, which aids trading revenue but reduces NII. We also typically see less benefit from loan growth, driven by paydowns on year-end credit card balances in Q2. Finally, long-end rates have fallen across Q1 and remain lower, this should drive higher prepayment of mortgage backed securities, which will cause bond premium write-off. These headwinds will be partially mitigated by one additional day of interest accruals. Across the second half of the year, we expect NII to benefit from growth in loan and deposits as well as an additional day of interest in Q3. Ultimately, we expect NII for the year -- for the full year of 2019 to be up roughly half the pace of 2018. This perspective assumes today's forward curve and loan and deposit growth consistent with the current economic environment. Turning to expenses on slide 12, we continued to improve efficiency at $13.2 billion, we were down $618 million or 4% compared to Q1 2018. This reflected efficiencies from a full year of work across the enterprise to simplify and improve our processes, as well as lower FDI insurance costs. We also reduced managers and management layers over the last year, cutting bureaucracy and complexity. By the way, in terms of headcount, we are replacing many of these managers with sales professionals. We also saw an end to some intangible amortization in our Merrill business related to the merger 10 years ago. Compared to Q4 2018, expenses are up $149 million, due to seasonally elevated payroll tax expense, partially mitigated by timing of marketing and tech initiative plans. In addition, 4Q was elevated by the mismatch between accounting for certain deferred benefit programs and the accounting for related hedges as the overall market declined in Q4, this went the other way in Q1, with the market’s rebound. Our efficiency ratio improved to 57%. I would also note that we filed an 8-K earlier this year, in which we reclassified some expense to revenue resulting in an approximately $200 million reduction in full year 2018 expense. With respect to expense levels for full year 2019 and 2020, as you know, we increased for 2019 our planned level of initiative spending, supporting both physical and digital expansion and we made announcements of further investments in our people like our minimum wage increase, despite these increases, we still believe we will meet our target of reporting expense for the next two years that approximate our reclassified 2018. However, please note, that the quarterly progression of expenses in 2019 may look a little different than the past years, as it will be impacted by the timing of planned technology and marketing spend. Turning to asset quality on slide 13, asset quality continue to perform well, driven by long-term adherence to responsible growth and a solid U.S. economy. Net charge-offs were $991 million, $80 million higher than Q1 2018 and $67 million higher than Q4. Comparing to Q4, we saw typical seasonality in our credit card portfolio. Compared to the prior year, we continued to see modest seasoning in our credit card portfolio. In Q1, there was also one charge-off related to a single utility client, which increased losses by $84 million impacting comparisons against both periods. The net charge-off ratio was 43 basis points. The loss ratio has now been below 50 basis points, in all but three quarters of the past five years. Provision expense was a little more than $1 billion and closely matched losses this quarter. Provision included a modest $22 million net reserve build. Looking forward, we expect net charge-offs to approximate this quarter’s $1 billion level for each of the remaining quarters in 2019, assuming current economic conditions continue. On slide 14, we broke out credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. Here you can see both the seasonal increase in consumer losses as well as the impact of the commercial charge-off, I mentioned. With respect to consumer metrics, both delinquencies and non-performing loans trended lower, which we believe is a good indicator of future asset quality. In commercial, we did have a modest increase in non-performing loans and reservable criticized exposure, but as a percent of loans, both metrics remain near historic lows. Turning to the business segments and starting with consumer banking on slide 15. Earnings grew 25% year-over-year to $3.2 billion.Q1 reflects continued strong momentum from 2018 as deposits grew $23 billion or 3%, revenue grew 7% and expenses were down 4%, creating operating leverage of 11%. Despite the expanded physical footprint, the all-in cost of running the deposit franchise declined 6 basis points year-over-year to 1.64%, which includes both the cost of deposits as well as rates paid. The efficiency ratio has now declined to 45%, credit cost remain low. The net charge-off ratio was 128 basis points, increasing only one basis point year-over-year. With respect to client activity, we continued to increase the number of accounts, while maintaining primary account status above 90%. More customers enrolled in preferred rewards, more customers use our digital channels for service as well as sales and more customers use our expanded and enhanced physical delivery network. We remain healthy growth and consumer spending has slowed to 3%. This seems quite natural following two years of spending growth above historical averages, especially given the backdrop of an economy, which has modestly slowed. And remember, growth in spending in Q1, 2018 was fueled by confidence following tax reform in late 2017. Consumer lending was also solid growing 5% year-over-year. The recent dip mortgage rates has improved momentum in the mortgage market on both refinance and purchases originations were up 22% from Q4. With respect to small business owners, we've been investing in our capabilities. For example, we've streamlined underwriting, enhanced credit card features and added specialist. Loans to small businesses are quickly approaching the $20 billion level, up 6% year-over-year. Solid activity with consumers is also evident in the growth of our investment assets. Investment assets in the Consumer segment, ended the quarter up $29 billion from Q1, 2018 on solid flows and a Q1, 2019 market rebound. So, customer activity remained solid across all major product categories. Okay. Turning to the slide 16, note the year-over-year real improvement in consumer banking NII, which drove our 7% growth. As we realized the value of our deposits through our focus on relationship deepening, card income was down 3% year-over-year, driven by higher rewards. Higher rewards were impacted by a number of factors. First, we saw more customers sign up for preferred rewards. Second, as some clients deepen their relationship with us, the amount of their rewards increased. Lastly, we added features that made it easier for customers to earn and view the rewards. While, these types of improvements increased rewards, we believe they also deepen relationships across multiple products, improving retention and profitability. Service charges were 2% lower year-over-year, as we continue to make policy changes to reduce certain overdraft fees for customers. Lower ATM volume also had an impact. Turning to Global Wealth and Investment Management on slide 17, GWIM results were impressive, particularly given the revenue impact of the market’s decline at the end of December. Relative to 2018, the business continued to gain momentum growing net new households, which not only added to solid AUM flows, but also drove another strong quarter of brokerage flows. Net income of just over $1 billion grew 14% from Q1, 2018. Pre-tax margins remain strong at 29%. The business created 360 basis points of year-over-year operating leverage as expense declined 4%, while revenue was down only modestly. Within revenue, positive impacts from the banking activities and AUM flows were not enough to overcome lower market valuations, declines in transactional revenue and general pricing pressures. The expense decline of 4% was driven by lower FDIC insurance costs, lower revenue related to incentive costs and merger related intangibles, which are now fully amortized. Moving to slide 14, Q1 results reflect continued strong client engagement in both -- at both Merrill and the private bank, strong household growth in both businesses and continued low attrition of experienced financial advisors contributed to the $17 billion in overall client flows. On the banking side, deposits were up $20 billion year-over-year, which included inflows of about $8 billion from the conversion of some money market funds to deposits near the end of 2018. We also saw deposit outflows of about $8 billion as the market recovered. Loans are higher by 3% year-over-year, reflecting strong mortgage growth given the decline in rates. We also saw growth in custom lending. Okay. Before discussing Global Banking and Global Markets separately, I know many of you look at these segments together. So for comparison note that on a combined basis, these two segments generated revenue of $9.3 billion and earned $3.1 billion in Q1, which is a 16% return on their combined allocated capital. Looking at them separately and beginning with Global Banking on slide 19, the business earned $2 billion and generated a 20% return on allocated capital. Earnings were up 2% from Q1, 2018, driven by operating leverage. Revenue was up 3% year-over-year, we saw positive impacts from loan and deposit growth, as well as higher interest rates. We also saw higher leasing revenue. These increases more than compensated for a decline in investment banking and loan spread compression. The business created more than 400 basis points of operating leverage, as revenue growth was matched with a 1% decline in expenses. Lower deposit insurance costs more than offset continued investments in technology and bankers. Lastly, provision expense increased year-over-year, driven by the single name charge-off mentioned earlier, as well as the absence of the prior year's energy reserve release. Looking at trends on slide 20, and comparing to Q1 last year, let's focus on IB fees. We and the industry felt the impact of the government shutdown as the SEC was closed for some period of time in the quarter. IB fees of $1.3 billion for the overall firm decreased 7% year-over-year. This was relevant to a global fee pool that is estimated to have declined 14%. Year-over-year, we saw good performance in advisory fees, up 16%. This was more than offset by declined in both debt and equity underwriting fees, within debt underwriting leverage finance rebounded from a tough -- from tough conditions in Q4. But primary additions remained slow and in investment grade we saw lower than expected offerings to finance share repurchases, fee pools in ECM were also down year-over-year. Switching to global markets on slide 21, as I usually do, I will talk about results, excluding DVA. Global Markets produced $1.1 billion of earnings and generate a return on capital of 13%. While Q1 saw a seasonal rebound from Q4, we were down from the first quarter of last year. Q1, 2018 was a record for the equities business fueled by higher client activity and a spike in market volatility. In Q1, 2018, the equity business included a large client derivative -- client driven derivative transaction. Overall, revenue declined 10%, while expenses declined 6%, sales and trading declined 13% year-over-year to $3.6 billion, FICC declined 8%, while equities fell 22%. The decline in equities was more modest, adjusting for the one large client trade in the year ago period. Much lower market volatility this year results in less client activity and weaker performance in equity derivatives. FICC’s lower revenue was due to lower client activity and less favorable markets across both macro and credit related products. Investors remained cautious from the quarter, given geopolitical concerns and market volumes were light for both primary and secondary trading. We had no days with trading losses in the quarter. The year-over-year expense decline was a reflection of lower revenue related costs. On slide 22, you can see that our mix of sales and trading revenue remained weighted to domestic activity where fee pools are concentrated, within FICC we remain more oriented towards credit products than macro. All right, finally, on slide 23. We show all other, which reported a net loss of $48 million, which was relatively unchanged from the prior year period. Given the recent changes to our financial statements that enhanced certain allocation methodologies, we believe the ongoing profitability or loss in this unit should not be much different from Q1, absent unusual items. This quarter, there was the normal seasonal tax benefit associated with stock-based compensation of about $200 million. This moved the tax rate in the quarter from our expected full year rate of 19% to the reported 17% rate in Q1. Okay, with that, let's open it up to questions.