Paul Donofrio
Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead
Good morning everyone. I’m starting on slide five. Bank of America reported net income of $7.2 billion or $0.66 per diluted share. Net income was up 32% from Q3 ‘17 and EPS grew 43%. Growth was strong, even if you adjust for the lower tax rate from the Tax Act. Year-over-year, pretax income, as Brian noted, reached a record $9 billion, up 18%. Once again, our year-over-year earnings growth was driven by strong operating leverage and strong asset quality. The 4% improvement in revenue was driven by NII improvement. And with expenses down more than 2%, we drove 700 basis points of operating leverage. Provision expense was $118 million lower than Q3 ‘17. NPLs, reservable criticized exposure and delinquencies all declined while net charge-offs were up $32 million year-over-year, mostly from seasoning of our credit card portfolio and loan growth. The effective tax rate for the quarter was a little more than 20%. The tax rate in Q4 should be marginally higher, absent unusual items. Turning to the balance sheet on slide six. Overall, compared to the end of Q2, deposit growth of $36 billion drove an increase in assets of $47 billion. The deposits were invested in cash, investments as well as reverse repo. Liquidity remained strong with average global liquidity sources of $537 billion and the liquidity coverage ratio of 120%. Total shareholders’ equity decreased $2.1 billion from Q2. We returned 96% of net income available to common through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. Common equity was driven lower by $1.5 billion reduction in AOCI from the impact of higher long end rates on the value of our AFS debt securities. Preferred stock declined as redemptions of some higher yielding issuances caught up with the new preferred we issued in the first half at lower yields. Turning to regularly metrics. Our CET1 standardized ratio was stable with Q2 at 11.4% and remains well above our 9.5% minimum. The small decline in capital driven by OCI that I just mentioned was offset by a small improvement in risk-weighted assets. The supplementary leverage ratio remains well above U.S. regulatory minimum. Looking at deposits on slide seven. Overall average deposits grew 4% year-over-year. We thought it would be helpful to show deposit growth in a little more detail this quarter. A few takeaways that I want to note. First, in total, average deposits have grown $157 billion or a CAGR of 4% over the past three years. That’s an average of $50 billion per year. Secondly, June was down a little over that time period consistent with other wealth managers, for all the reasons that we reviewed in the past quarters around deposit alternatives. Third, Global Banking continues to grow well, up 4% annually since 2015, reflecting the investments we’ve made in our global treasury services capabilities. Also within Global Banking, in addition to the growth, note the rotation from non-interest bearing to interest bearing deposits. But, what I really want to draw your attention too, is Consumer Banking growth in the upper right. Overall, consumer deposits have grown at a CAGR of 7%, but within consumer deposits, focus on the accounts that our customers use to transact every day. These transactional accounts, i.e. consumer non-interest bearing and low-interest checking accounts are the most valuable types of accounts. And these two account categories combined have grown every quarter since 2012; and just since 2015, as shown here, have grown at a compounded annual rate of 9%. We believe this pace of growth and the aggregate level of these account categories is demonstrably better than the market. This leadership reflects the value customers see in not only are deposit capabilities but also their total relationship with us, including preferred relationship rewards, simple transparent products, lower service charges, improved customer service, enhanced mobile capabilities, and improved physical centers. Turning to slide eight. Total loans on an average basis were $931 billion. Total loan growth continued to be impacted by the run-off and sales of non-core consumer real estate loans. In addition to the typical run-off, near the end of this quarter, we sold the portfolio of non-core consumer real estate loans with the book value of $3.7 billion, recording a small gain. Focusing on loans and our business segments, they were up $29 billion or 3% year-over-year. Our consumer loans grew 5% year-over-year, as mortgage originations grew across both Consumer Banking and wealth management, and clients grew card balances 3%. Commercial loans grew 2% year-over-year. While up year-over-year, we did experience a slowdown this quarter in commercial loans. As Brian mentioned, competition for commercial loans remains intense. Accommodating capital markets are receptive alternative to bank loans. Non-bank lenders have likely increased their market share, and companies remain flushed with cash and are generating solid earnings. Having said that, our dollar decline [ph] continues to be robust and the economy continues to grow, which bodes well for continued loan growth. Turning to asset quality on slide nine. Asset quality continued to perform very well. Total net charge-offs were $932 million or 40 basis points of average loans. Net charge-offs were up $32 million from a year ago, as we saw expected seasoning and balance growth in credit cards. Compared to Q2 ‘18, losses were lower by $64 million as Q2 included seasonally higher losses in credit card and some modest 2017 storm-related losses. Provision expense included a $216 million net reserve release, reflecting improvement in our consumer real estate and energy portfolio as well as other more broad-based commercial improvements. Turning to slide 10, we break out credit quality metrics of both our consumer and commercial portfolios. As you can see, the year-over-year change in the net charge-offs was mainly a consumer card story, while commercial was down modestly. And, as Brian mentioned, note the improvement in almost every other asset quality metric. Turning to slide 11. Net interest income on a GAAP non-FTE basis was $11.9 billion, $12 billion on an FTE basis. Compared to Q3 ‘17, GAAP NII was up $710 million or 6%. The benefit of higher interest rates as well as loan deposit growth was modestly offset by higher funding costs in Global Markets. On a linked quarter basis, GAAP NII was up $220 million. Higher interest rates and deposit growth also drove the linked quarter improvement, aided by an additional net interest. Net interest yield improved 6 basis points year-over-year and 4 basis points linked quarter. Note that we have presented net interest yield excluding our Global Markets segment which primarily reflects our trading-related assets, so that you can see more transparency into our banking activities. On this adjusted basis, NII is up $850 million year-over-year and the net interest yield up is up 13 basis points, driven by a broad improvement in asset yields relative to funding costs. With respect to the deposit pricing, we continue to see a slow upward movement in rate paid in total interest bearing deposits. Average rate paid on interest bearing deposits rose 12 basis points from Q2 and is up 44 basis points versus Q4 ‘15, which was the beginning of this Fed rate hike cycle. Turning now to asset sensitivity. As of 9/30, an instantaneous 100 basis-point parallel increase in rates above the forward yield curve is estimated to increase NII by $2.9 billion over the subsequent 12-months. Note that the short-end represents a little more than 75% of this sensitivity. Turning to slide 12. We had another solid quarter of expense management. Non-interest expense of $13.1 billion was down $327 million or 2% year-over-year. For 4 years now, our teams have driven expenses lower every quarter on a year-over-year basis, with only one exception, our efficiency ratio of 57%, improving 400 basis points from Q3 ‘17. The expense discipline was fairly broad-based across personnel, marketing, litigation and other general operating costs. Our headcount fell more than 5,000 from last year, despite adding client-facing associates in several businesses. And I would emphasize that we achieved this reduction even as we increased our investment in technology, in new financial centers, and in our people, as Brian mentioned earlier. In fact, if you recall, Brian mentioned last quarter that we increased our budget for new initiative spending starting this quarter by $75 million per quarter through the end of 2019. Turning to the business segments and starting with Consumer Banking on slide 13. Another outstanding quarter for this segment as client balances grew, revenues increased and expenses were down. This quarter, earnings grew 49% to $3.1 billion, marking the 13th consecutive quarter that earnings in Consumer Banking have increased year-over-year. With 4% year-over-year deposit growth and 8% increase in consumer payments, we believe we are gaining share and deepening relationships. Consumer Banking created nearly 1,000 basis points of operating leverage this quarter as revenue grew 7% while expenses were down 2%. Engagement with customers was strong. Year-over-year, average loans grew 6% and average deposits grew 4%. Primary accounts have now grown to 91% of all deposit accounts. Merrill Edge brokerage assets grew 22%, surpassing $200 billion. The cost of running the business continues its decline as the cost of deposit fell to 152 basis points, while the rate paid remained low at 6 basis points. The efficiency ratio dropped to 46% in the quarter, improving more than 450 basis points in the past 12 months. Provision expenses decreased from Q3 ‘17 due mostly to a smaller reserve build in credit card. The net charge-off ratio remained low at 119 basis points, up only 1 basis point from Q3 ‘17. Turning to slide 14 and key trends. I would make just a few points here. We believe relationship deepening is driving improvement in revenue, predominantly NII. This quarter, year-over-year revenue growth was 7%, included a 10% growth in NII as well as modestly higher revenue and card income and service charges. Customer satisfaction in Consumer Banking reached a new high with more than 80% of our clients rating us 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale. This improvement in customer satisfaction is clearly an important factor, driving the strong growth in customer balance, as I mentioned a moment ago. And we are achieving this growth while lowering expenses. This quarter productivity improvements more than offset the continued investment in technology and financial center renovations and in our sales staff. Brian already viewed our past activity with respect to the significant investments in both new and modernized financial centers. I would just add that this quarter, we opened 9 new centers and renovated another 96. Turning to digital trends on slide 15, a few highlights. As you can see, we continue to grow mobile users, which were up 10% year-over-year. And while total payments were up more than 8% year-over-year, digital payments were up 14%. And by the way, annualizing payment volume equates to $2.8 trillion of payments by Bank of American customers. Within that, Bank of America has now surpassed 4 million users that processed $12 billion of payments in the quarter. Mobile and ATM now account for more than 3 quarters of deposit transactions. And lastly, mobile with all its benefits for both our customers and our shareholders is now approaching half of all digital sales. Turning to Global Wealth and Investment Management on slide 16. GWIM produced another quarter of strong results, earning net income of more than $1 billion which was the second highest quarter ever for the segment. Earnings were up 31% and pretax income was up 10%. The pretext margin improved to 28%. The business created more than 200 basis points of operating leverage, growing revenue 4% while holding expense growth to 1%. Strong client activity and a healthy equity market coupled with solid expense management all benefited results. We are asking Merrill Lynch advisors to improve organic growth and the embedded incentives in our 2018 compensation program to drive responsible organic household growth. Advisors have responded positively and we have seen year-to-date net household on an annualized basis grew 4 times faster than 2017. With respect to U.S. Trust, we’re also seeing good results. Like Merrill, U.S. Trust has grown advisors and households. Moving to slide 17. Trends reflect solid overall client engagement in Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust. Our local market strategy led by 93 market presidents is helping to better integrate our lines of business and deepen relationships, especially in wealth management. Competitive advisor attrition remained near historic lows. Year-over-year, client balances rose to record levels of more than $2.8 trillion, driven by higher market values, solid AUM flows and continued loan growth. AUM balances, which have climbed to over $1.1 trillion are up $108 billion versus Q3 ‘17 with flows contributing $61 billion of that increase. Average loans of a $162 billion grew 5% year-over-year with continued strength in consumer real estate and custom lending. Year-over-year revenue growth of 4% was led by a 9% increase in asset management fees and modestly higher NII, partially offset by lower transactional revenue. Turning to slide 18. Global Banking earned slightly less than $2 billion and generated a 19% return on allocated capital. Earnings were up 13% from Q3 ‘17. Revenue and pre-tax earnings were both down 5% year-over-year. Growth in NII was partially offset by a decline in investment banking fees and the impact of the Tax Act with respect to tax advantaged investments. Note, this impact on tax advantaged investments affects our segment reporting, but has no effect on the Company’s consolidated results. Expenses were held flat versus Q3 ‘17 despite our continued investments in the business, including the addition of sales professionals to enhance local market coverage. Looking at trends on slide 19 and comparing to Q3 last year. At 2% year-over-year, growth in average loans moderated this quarter while deposits grew 7%. We believe both have been impacted by repatriation of cash. Second quarter data was recently released on repatriation of overseas earnings, through dividends and withdrawals. That data shows that repatriation in the first half of 2018 exceeded the prior two years combined. IB fees of $1.2 billion for the overall firm declined 18% year-over-year. For context, note that the overall industry feel pool declined 16% from last year. The decline in advisory fees this quarter was driven by a decrease in our announced volumes over the past couple of quarters; our pipeline today reflects some pickup in our share of announced transactions since then. Leveraged finance underwriting was another area where we experienced a decline that was a bit more than the industry fee pools as we maintained our focused on the les highly levered deals amid a slowdown in client activity. The bright spot of the quarter was a significant increase in equity underwriting fees. Switching to Global Markets on slide 20, I will talk about the results excluding the DVA. Global Markets grew earnings by 28% year-over-year to just under $1 billion, producing a solid return on allocated capital of 11%. Revenue was stable compared to Q3 ‘17, while expenses declined 4%. Within revenue a decline in sales and trading was offset by a gain on the sale of an equity investment and a trading platform. Sales and trading declined 3% year-over-year to $3.1 billion. FICC declined 5%, while equities grew 3%. The lower FICC sales and trading performance was driven by lower client activity and rates and a weaker environment in municipal bonds. On the other hand, equities benefited from increased client financing activity, reflecting investments made in the business over the past 18 months. Equity derivative also performed better and was offset by weaker performance in cash. On slide 21, I would just point out the chart on the bottom left, which shows the relative stability of sales and trading revenue across the past three years on a year-to-date basis. It also shows the stability and benefit that comes with diversity as growth in equity revenue has made up for the decline in FICC revenue. On slide 22, we show all other, which reported net income of $144 million. This is an improvement from Q3 ‘17 of $90 million. Revenue improvements include the small gain mentioned earlier on the sale of a non-core portfolio and a lower reps and warranty expense. Otherwise, the net impact of lower expense and less provision benefit were offset by less income tax benefit from applying a lower tax rate to a smaller pretax loss in the current period. Okay. With that, let’s open it up for Q&A.