Earnings Labs

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 13, 2017

$52.92

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Bank of America Earnings Announcement Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this call is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. Lee McEntire. Please go ahead, sir.

Lee McEntire

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks everybody for joining us. I know it’s a busy morning for all of you for the fourth quarter 2016 results. Hopefully, everybody has got a chance to review the earnings release documents that are available on our website. Before I turn the call over to Brian and Paul, let me remind you we may make some forward-looking statements. For further information on those, please refer to our earnings release documents, our website or SEC filings. With that, let me turn it over to Brian Moynihan, our Chairman and CEO for some opening comments before Paul Donofrio, our CFO goes through the details. Brian?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Good morning. Thank you, Lee and thank all of you for joining us to review our results today. Results this year in the fourth quarter complete a solid year of execution in driving our responsible growth strategy. We have produced earnings of $17.9 billion in 2016, that’s a 13% growth over 2015. In a year in which we had a series of unexpected and sizable events around the world and a rough start in the capital markets, we are able to achieve 1% growth in revenue against the backdrop of a slow growth U.S. economy. Importantly focused on driving what we could control, cost, production and risk. So, how do we do on all that? We lowered our costs to improve productivity, with result in reduction expenses by almost 5% compared to 2015. That’s nearly $3 billion in expense reductions continuing a long-term trend. From their peak in 2011 at $77 billion, expenses are now down $22 billion at 29%. And reductions coupled with the revenue growth drove 6% in operating leverage. In improving economy, a relentless focus on client selection and growth through responsible lending combined to result in a historical low charge-off rate of 39 basis points for our company this quarter. We also returned more capital to shareholders through higher dividends and more share repurchases during 2016. As you may have seen in the news release this morning, we announced an additional $1.8 billion expansion to our share buyback program. So adding the $1.8 billion to the $2.5 billion left, that brings us to $4.3 billion for the first 6 months of 2017. Our approach has resulted in a 2% reduction in share count at the end of 2016, which adds to the earnings growth to produce a 15% growth in earnings per share. For the year,…

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everybody. Since Brian covered the income statement highlights, I want to start with the balance sheet on Page 5. Overall, the end of period assets declined $8 billion from Q3 as solid loan growth across our business segments was more than offset by lower levels of trading assets in our global markets business. On an ending basis, loans grew $10.9 billion from Q3 ‘16. This includes adding back $9.2 billion in UK card balances that were moved from loans and leases to assets of businesses held for sale pursuant to the announcement of the sale of our UK card business. Loans on a reported basis showed growth of $1.7 billion as a result of that movement. We expect to close the sale around the middle of the year subject to regulatory approvals. On the funding side, deposits rose $28 billion from Q3 or 9% on an annualized basis. At the same time, long-term debt fell by $8.3 billion, driven by hedge and FX valuations. Global markets trading liabilities declined in tandem with global markets assets. Lastly, common equity declined $3.2 billion compared to Q3, as additions from earnings were offset by a decline in AOCI and capital return to shareholders. AOCI declined by $5.6 billion. Driving the decline was a $4.7 billion reduction in the value of AFA securities held in our investment portfolio, which reduced in value as long-term rates rose significantly during the quarter. Reflecting this, global liquidity sources declined a bit in the quarter and in the year just below $0.5 trillion. However, we remain well compliant with fully phased-in U.S. LCR requirements. We returned a total of $2.1 billion to common shareholders through a combination of dividends and repurchases in the quarter. Return of capital, plus the decline in AOCI, drove a…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from John McDonald with Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

John McDonald

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Hi, good morning. Paul, I was wondering if you could give us a little more split, some of the drivers of the net interest income increase that you are expecting to recur between the fourth and first quarter, the $600 million, how much is that is driven by the Fed hike we saw on the short end and how much of it might be the long end in rates versus loan growth?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Sure. Let me – maybe the simplest way to sort of answer that question would be to take you back to 9/30, right, when the inter-sensitivity on the long end was $2.1 billion. We saw 75 basis point increase in long end rates since then, so 75 basis points times $2.1 billion is $1.6 billion. At that time, the short end sensitivity was $3.3 billion. We saw 25% of 1%, 25 basis points. So $3.3 billion times 25%, that’s another $600 million. So together, that’s $2.4 billion. As you can see, just in the changes in the interest sensitivity, you divided by 4, you get your $600 million. Again, I would emphasize that we see NII growing from there as we moved to ‘17 assuming again we have modest loan growth, modest deposit growth and a stable short-term and long-term interest rate environment.

John McDonald

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Okay. And then the reason the 5.3 future sensitivity has now moved to 3.4 as you have rolled $2 billion into your base case outlook?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yes. Conceptually, we have captured the decline in sensitivity. We are going to capture the decline in sensitivity that you just experienced in our NII over the next 12 months and you can see that under the calculation I just did for you.

John McDonald

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Okay, got it, that’s helpful. Then a question for Brian on capital return and CCAR, some of the other banks have used the de minimis exception that kind of top off their 2016 CCAR authorizations. That leaves Bank of America standing out quite a bit on the low end of payouts versus peers, so I am kind of wondering – two questions, one how do you guys think about that de minimis, you did well in 2016, any reason that Bank of America couldn’t think about the de minimis top off or their restrictions on that or could you do that at some point this year on the de minimis. And then second, as you move into 2017, what are your goals to get your capital distributions closer to peer payouts and why wouldn’t you be able to do that? Thanks.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yes. John, so this morning and as part of our release, we announced that we got approval for de minimis of $1.8 billion, that’s the $2.5 billion we have for the first half of this year to bring the repurchased volume for – to $4.3 billion for the first half year. So we applied to that obviously in December and got the approval and our Board has approved it. Now it went out with the release this morning. In terms of next year, we will see what the scenarios are, the dollar caveats, but you are seen us constantly move our numbers up and we will continue to do that in our – our cushions and stuff are strong on the earnings, but the most important thing for us was kind of getting to make sure the earnings power of the company kept coming back and now with $17 billion earnings, we feel confident we will be able to push forward.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

And John, that $1.8 billion was the full 1%.

John McDonald

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Great. And that’s that will take you through – just as a reminder Paul, that will take you through the end of the CCAR period, right?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Right. The first two quarters, all in the first half year.

John McDonald

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Great. Thank you.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research. Please go ahead.

Jim Mitchell

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Yes. Hi, good morning. Maybe I will just follow-up on the NII question a little bit, does that guidance that you provided include the sale of the UK card business and what’s sort of the impact from that?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Yes. The guidance includes the sale of the UK card business. But just to be clear, that’s not going to close until probably mid this year. And so that NII will be with us until it does – until it closes.

Jim Mitchell

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Sure. So when we think about going forward, what kind of deposit betas you are assuming in that $600 million per quarter and how do we think about the next rate hike, say we get one in June, which seems to be consensus, do you still expect to have very low positive betas from there?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Yes. So if you – again, if you go back to 9/30, I think we told you we were using deposit betas in our modeling on interest bearing deposits in the high 40s. And we said, hey, the first few rate hikes is going to be less. And the later rate hikes, it’s going to be more. And that’s kind of what we are experiencing. So if you kind of look at our deposit betas right now, you probably see it kind of inching into the 50s. It’s definitely moving up as we get more short-term rate hikes.

Jim Mitchell

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

And do you think that continue into third – the next rate hike?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Well, again I think – well, we will see what happens here, right. I mean we had a rate hike a year ago. And I think a number of people would have said that we would had a pass around I think there was a significant pass-through in the industry. We just had a rate hike in December and we are going to see how much capacity we actually have. From a modeling perspective, in that guidance I gave you, from a modeling perspective, the pass-through rate on the next 100 basis points would be in the 50s. And again, it would be the same story, less in the beginning, more at the end.

Jim Mitchell

Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead

Yes, understood. Okay, that’s very helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

Glenn Schorr

Analyst · Evercore ISI

Hello, there.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Evercore ISI

Good morning, Glenn.

Glenn Schorr

Analyst · Evercore ISI

Good morning. Two quickies. One on card, one on mortgage. On cards, you had some pretty good growth and we are seeing really big growth at some of the other big banks and some of the economics of the business are being given way to support that growth. I am just curious on how you are balancing that of customer growth versus giving up some of the economics to capture that growth?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Evercore ISI

Well, I think the way to think about it, Glenn, overall, is that we are doing on a customer basis. So when we – Paul gave you the statistics earlier for the preferred rewards enrollments and things like that, we are driving – our priorities are to get our card used by our core customers and reward them for that, who have other deeper relationships with the company. And so in a broad sense, we are getting paid through the NII line as well as in the other relationships they had as well as the card income fee line that you see on deposit balances and other things plus obviously the card balances. We have been pleased that we now have gotten through all the sales when you think about this quarter versus last year. And so active accounts are moving up I think 2% or 3% or so year-over-year. The active accounts were up, which shows the strategy is working. So while we make that investment you are talking about and that is part of the competitive dynamics. We feel good about the balances growing. So, we are getting more NII from it. But importantly, with our customers, these are the best customers we have and so we are seeing their other aspects of relationship grow.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Evercore ISI

And again, look, strong risk adjusted margins in that business is stable for us, above 9%. Charge-offs look great. And as Brian said, we are staying at the higher end of the market.

Glenn Schorr

Analyst · Evercore ISI

Yes, it’s super ROA and ROE support of anyway for the overall company. And then the question on mortgage was, the production was good, but the pipeline fell a lot, obviously, a function of what happened in rates, but can you help us to think about what to expect, say, next year if say rates go up along the forward yield curve? Like how do you model that? How you can manage the expense along the way?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Evercore ISI

I think if you look at the page, Glenn that showed the quarterly production in the consumer section there, you see that I think it was three quarters over the last three quarters all over $20 billion in home mortgage loans and home equity loans. Look, you wouldn’t know from the outside is during the last year, we have made a series of major changes in that business. We have consolidated the internal platform, so we have one group, a fellow named Steve Boland who does good job for us delivering the product across all the businesses, whether it’s U.S. Trust, Merrill Lynch or the consumer business. In addition, we have brought in the servicing from third-parties of our customers and we continue to do that. So even in the year, we have made tremendous transformations even saw $320 billion plus. And so our view – the team would tell me that the pipeline will be down, because refinances are down and therefore expect less, but I think my view is that they should be able to continue to grow market share frankly because of the capacity that they were able to develop this year given those changes and still produce well. That being said, it’s a rate sensitive product. So, we have told you, think about the mortgage banking income line as $300 odd million is a little higher this quarter just because some of the dynamics. So, it’s a relatively modest line, but the production will be strong.

Glenn Schorr

Analyst · Evercore ISI

Okay, thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Steven Chubak with Instinet. Please go ahead.

Steven Chubak

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. So Paul, I wanted to start off with a question on the FICC business. The revenues have been remarkably resilient over the last couple of years really helped by some of the factors that you cited whether it would be strong risk discipline, balance sheet management and the reduction in VAR. But as we look ahead, what we have been hearing from a lot of folks is growing optimism around the FICC business in the coming year. And what I am wondering is, whether your strong risk discipline actually precludes you from participating in a significant recovery if then materializes to the same extent that some of your peers?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Look, we feel – as you point out, look, we feel really great about that business. It is performing very well. We know – I would note the operating leverage we are getting, I would note our – as you said that our discipline on risk and the reduction of VAR. So we have no complaints. We have a diversified product set that has a global geographic footprint. We have scale in every major market around the world. And when you look at global banking and global markets together, I would argue that only three companies in the world can deliver what we can deliver for our clients and customers in every major market around the world. So, there is tremendous opportunity there. We are not going to look exactly like every competitor every quarter. We have often said that when things are great, we might not be as high, but when things aren’t so good, we are not going to be as low. So, we are not – we feel great about it, but – and we think there is lots of opportunity and we would expect continued performance in that business.

Steven Chubak

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Got it. And switching over to just the capital side for a moment, I mean, you highlighted the progress you made in reducing the G-SIB surcharge 2.5. And I am wondering as you think about how you are going to allocate capital across the different businesses, whether that positions you to reduce your firm-wide targets or you – and maybe more specifically, how are you thinking about your spot capital requirement today for the firm overall?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Well, I am not sure I understand the question. In terms of – so, let’s just talk about it a bit. In terms of the allocation of capital, that’s a process we go through once a year. We look at a number of different metrics, return on – advanced approach, standardized approach, SLR. We look at internal models, economic capital and we arrive at we think is the right amount of capital to give to our businesses based upon their business operations and risk. Remember, we have got $500 billion of operational risk capital that was assigned to us by the regulators. From my perspective, personal perspective, most of that is for businesses that we are no longer in, products that we no longer sell, risk that we no longer take. So a big chunk of that sits in all other and it wouldn’t really be appropriate to push it from a segment standpoint out to the businesses, because they are not really using that risk capital. So, is that what you are looking for or was there some other element of that question that I missed?

Steven Chubak

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Well, I think the tricky part there and admittedly, it’s a complex topic is thinking about how much capital you need to get through the CCAR process unscathed or maybe under the new SEB framework, how – like what’s the minimum capital requirement that you would need over which you can – the remainder is considered to be excess and can be returned to shareholders over time?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Yes. We feel – look, we have made a lot of progress in CCAR. We have made – the progress we have really seen in the company – there is lots of technical things we have done to be much better on CCAR in terms of improving how we do it, involving everybody in the company, the qualitative aspects of it. I think from a quantitative standpoint, we have always looked like we have had enough capital. I think if you look at our stress losses relative to competitors, you can see responsible growth in – coming out in the Fed’s models, not our models. And so I think we feel really good quantitatively. I think we feel really good qualitatively. If you look at the stress capital buffer, that’s not going to impact capital for us, where we are probably – we would have to see how all the rules – this was a speech, so we don’t really know what all the rules are going to say. But my guess is we are – our stress capital buffer is below the minimum that would be required, so we feel like we are in a good position for CCAR ‘17. We don’t know what the scenarios yet. We don’t know what the rules are. So, there is a lot still changing, but we feel really good about the progress we have made, and certainly, our cushion from a quantitative standpoint.

Steven Chubak

Analyst · Instinet. Please go ahead

Alright. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. Hi, couple of questions. One is on just the balance sheet and as you think about your cash duration, just the profile that you have today in a rising rate environment over time, do you expect to stay more static where you are today or any changes that we should be anticipating?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

I don’t think you should anticipate any changes. We haven’t changed since rates started rising. We feel good about the way we are. We are very focused on hitting on our balance sheet. Deposits come in, that’s what really drives the size of the balance sheet, deposits come in, and the question is, within our risk framework, can we put those deposits to work with our customers and clients around the world? If we can, we put it to work within our risk framework. If we can’t, it goes into some other place, either cash or the investment portfolio. We are not really thinking – and we are always balancing liquidity, earnings and capital, but we are not really sitting there every quarter talking – figuring out what the most optimum duration is for us.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

And then just from the cash perspective, the LCR, could you just give us a little color as to where you stand there and…?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

We are in very good shape.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

So I hear you on that and it sounds like, okay, we have some excess cash and I guess that’s part of the reason I asked the question, is there any interest in moving some of that cash into?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Well, yes, but LCR isn’t just cash. I mean LCR includes highly – lots of different securities go into the LCR calculation. Betsy, to make it simple, when the excess of cash coming in over loan growth goes sort of half into mortgage backed securities and half into treasuries at this point. And we – the duration of what we do on treasuries will be a little bit based on where we think rates are going and stuff like that, but it’s driven – it just it goes in those two things because we have – once we fund the loan balance, that’s where it goes.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

We are not trying to hold, Betsy more cash than we need.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Yes, that’s good to hear. Other question was just on the improvement in the minimum capital ratio and the RWA reduction that drove that, could you just give us a little more color on the drivers there and do you feel like you are optimized now for what you want to take in terms of risk relative to total size balance sheet?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. So as I think Brian mentioned, I mentioned, we took the G-SIB buffer down 50 basis points. It’s at 9.5%, again compared to 10.8% on a fully phased-in basis, so that’s 130 sort of basis points of sort of cushion at this point. We got there through things like reducing derivative notionals through risk less trade compressions. We got there by lowering Level 3 assets, as well as overall optimization as the rules became a little bit more clearer. So we have been working at this for some time. You have asked in other calls, I think other people will have asked, we haven’t really wanted to declare where we were, but now we got to the end of the year, this is one of the calculation really matters, so we thought it was important just to disclose that progress. I would also say that global markets, it’s going to be up and down in any given quarter. Ending balances in the third quarter were up. They were a little bit less in the end of the fourth quarter just on client activity.

Betsy Graseck

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Great, okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Marty Mosby with Vining Sparks. Please go ahead.

Marty Mosby

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

Thank you. When you think about rate sensitivity in deposit betas, you get back to really deposit flows, we continued to see increases in deposit balances and until we see any pressure of those balances being kind of deployed back into the economy, there really shouldn’t be much impact on pricing, what is – you are looking at the core deposit balances and kind of what are the flows you are seeing and where is that growth coming from and are you seeing any pressure in a sense of thinking of those balances being deployed back into the economy?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

Well, Marty, we – so let’s start. We saw a $50-odd billion of deposit growth year-over-year. Consumer business was the lion’s share of that. To give you a sense, fourth quarter ‘15 to fourth quarter ‘16, checking balance in the consumer business grew 12%, so the growth is strong. And as you said, we expect to maintain pricing discipline in the company, not – obviously, those are non-interest bearing, but on the interest bearing side. So – and you have seen that so far as the first couple of – the first rate happened last year. In terms of deployment economy, we made $20 billion more loans, And we will continue to drive the economy and we can will invest in mortgage backed securities and things like that, so we are able to fund easily all the loan demand that we think is responsible to take on. And in the fourth quarter, we saw loan growth in our commercial business kicked up draws on lines, stayed at a high level. And loan growth in the middle market business was strong in the fourth quarter and we are looking forward for more of that in our small business. So you are exactly right, we are deploying the economy. There is not a lot of – they are growing faster than loans and we believe that we can price with discipline.

Marty Mosby

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

And then on just two kind of unusual things out there, the hedge ineffectiveness, can you give us the actual dollar amount, it looks like the day count will typically impact you about $150 million to $200 million. And then other fee income looks artificially low, if you could just give us some color on that line item as well?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

Sure. So the hedging ineffectiveness was $168 million in the quarter and negative obviously. And in terms of the other – you termed the income line.

Marty Mosby

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

Other fee income?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

So that last quarter, let me give you the sense. Last quarter, we had I think some – that line is going to bounce around a little bit, let me start with that. But the last quarter, we had some positive impacts in that line from loans related to our FBO portfolio. This quarter, it was negatively impacted by the UK PPI provision. That was $132 million and that’s non-tax deductible. So look, if you adjust for just two items, we would be around $300 million. And I would say that’s probably a good base for you to think about if you are modeling.

Marty Mosby

Analyst · Vining Sparks. Please go ahead

Perfect. That’s – we were right in that range, so that got us right back to the normal level. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will go next to Mike Mayo with CLSA.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Good morning Mike.

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Hi. So there is certainly a lot of positives on this call, whether its deposits, loans, expenses, etcetera, but the end result, it’s still a single digit return on equity, a return on tangible common equity and I know you wanted to be higher, I know it’s improved, but it’s still below your peers today at 13% and below your target of 10%, so can you give us a target metric for RoTCE for 2017 or when do you think you get to that double-digit range where some of your peers are?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

So thank you, Mike for noticing the improvement because we feel really good about all the progress we have made. As you point out, earnings I mean are up year-over-year on a 15% and that’s on the very significant earning base of $18 billion. We need to get our capital down. We are returning more capital to shareholders. That’s going to help. We need to continue to grow. So we feel really good about the progress that we have made. Our return on assets metric is tracking in the right direction. Our return on tangible common equity metrics is tracking in the right direction. So we will just have to wait and see. I think we would get there even without a rate rise eventually, but certainly rate rise is going to help.

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Well, as a follow-up, I know I ask this each year, but I mean you just said wait and see and that’s kind of been the answer. Is it just seems like from an investor standpoint, you get a free pass, like you will get to the double-digit RoTCE when you get there and as investors were just going to have to wait and see, I just – it would be nice to have that metric or more color or just anything else you can give along these lines. And maybe just more of that color, the efficiency ratio, I got it, you have gotten better, but still not where I think you want to be at 66% and your peers today, they have reported 60% for last year, what else can you do with the efficiency which might help improve that RoTCE to a double-digit range?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Mike, a couple of things, one is, if you look across the last three quarters, the return on tangible common equity was 10.5%, 10.28%, 9.92%, so you have a fourth quarter seasonal decline in trading, so it’ll pick back up in the first quarter and we look forward to that going back up. And on the efficiency, we have told that – set the goal of $53 billion in expenses. And whether the rate increases, we will continue to drive that down. And if you look through the year-over-year, it was down from 70 into 66. In the last couple of quarters, have grown to sub-65, around 65 and it will continue to move from there.

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Okay. Last follow-up, you have come a long way with branches from 6,000 down to 4,600, where do you think you ultimately could take that branch count and why all of a sudden are you reducing the level of ATMs?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Well, the ATMs are coming down, largely because as you reduce branches, there is one or two and then third-party ATMs in places that aren’t very efficient. So they will continue to wind down, so I wouldn’t necessarily focus on that as being a separate question and so we build them out. But if you think about the – on the branch, we are down. Through the year, we had 179 that closed, but we also renovated 205, put out 34 new ones. So we are continuing to invest, yet there is a steady downdraft in the total branch count. So I think we ended the year at 4,500, almost 4,579. So we will continue to work that count down. Again, based on how the customer flows go. These are critical to serve the customers and so we will end up as larger branches and smaller branches that are being folded in and we will continue to do that.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yes. I think as you look at – think about that number, my focus on the active mobile users, because that’s going to be the interplay here. We have got – active mobile users are up 16% year-over-year. On a big base, we grew active mobile users more than we grew in 2015. And deposit transactions are now 19 – mobile deposit transactions are now 19% of all deposit transactions, that’s the equivalent of 880 financial centers, but – so that’s – on the one hand, that says maybe you can optimize a little more, but on the other hand, as I said in the lead in, we still have 1 million people, almost 1 million people coming to the branch everyday and they need that channel. They need it to transact some of them. But a lot of them come in for advise and we want them to do that. So, we need a certain footprint of financial centers. I think Brian alluded to the fact that we are adding financial centers all around the country in certain markets around the country. So, it’s going to ebb and flow.

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Alright. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Matt Burnell with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Brian, maybe a question for you, I noticed on Slide 19, the breakout of the global markets revenue mix, 40% of the revenue in the past year coming from outside the U.S. and Canada. As we look towards what appears to be a potentially more volatile market condition in Europe relative to the Brexit negotiations which are set to start early in 2017, how are you thinking about that and what the effect could be on your sales and trading revenue in 2017?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Alright. But I think there is already – there is volatility this year around it just on the announced vote and things like that. Earlier in the year, that was one of the events that I referenced. The nice thing of the balance in this business when you think about it, so it’s balanced by product, it’s balanced by geography. So when one thing goes, there is something else that’s going well, we pick it up. So, I am not overly worried about – we have got to get Brexit right as our company and industry and everything and there is a lot of discussion about that. But in terms of the impact on the trading revenue on a given day, it will ebb and flow and we will get through it. But the good news is as the United States strengthens in the first part of the year, we have seen a good normal first quarter developing, and we have seen customer activity strong, all of which bodes well. So we will get through it.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Okay. And then if I can just follow-up on your earlier comments about the post-election positive sentiment. Can you give a little more color as to what your borrowers and what your corporate clients are saying in terms of what their demand, the increase in their demand could be or are they holding back a little bit waiting to see what comes out of the Beltway over the next 6 to 9 months?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

What I’d reflect on is that as you came from – through the summer into the fall through the election, you saw both on the consumer side and commercial side, you saw increasing optimism. On the consumer side, you saw a bit of an acceleration in spending coming into the fall. And so just if you think about the middle-market business, as I said earlier, the revolver utilization is on the high end of where it’s been the past several years at 40% plus in a – that group, which is our middle-market business, a commercial real estate business, etcetera, at about $4 billion with loans in quarter four, so all that really relates to greater business confidence. And so I think we feel very good where businesses stand and if you get the same reports in the small business side, so they are very – as I go out and visit these clients, they are very optimistic. They think policies will be supportive of growth in their businesses. And they are facing all the things that we face. Can they find the good employees? Can they find the final demand? But I think overall, the optimism is very strong. And we are seeing it translate into some loan balances. I think it’s still – will play out into early next year.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Eric Wasserstrom with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

Eric Wasserstrom

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

Thanks. Two quick questions, please. One is on the – can you just perhaps update us on your outlook for auto credit? It’s been an issue that’s been a bit of a battleground, particularly on the mid and low FICO range? And I know that’s not where you are concentrated, but I would love to get your perspective there?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

So we have got market share around 3.5% and we are originating in prime and super-prime with average FICO scores at 7.71 and debt to income ratio was at sort of all-time lows. And if you – and I know this isn’t necessarily completely responsive to your question, but credit statistics here are phenomenal. I think in the quarter, our net charge-off ratio was 19 basis points. So we are able to grow that and we did grow it in the quarter well and we are able to grow it within our risk tolerance. Now the fourth quarter was a great quarter or not, though I think we have all seen the numbers and we are expecting that growth to continue assuming a modestly improving economy, we are expecting that growth to continue in the first and second quarter I guess as guidance I would give you kind of auto growth in sort of mid to low single-digits. By the way, I have just been corrected here. Our net charge-off ratio in the fourth quarter was 35 basis points, not 19, but still well, well within our risk tolerance for that product.

Eric Wasserstrom

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

And does the potential decline in collateral values present any particular concern to you, guys?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

It presents a concern and you watch it carefully, but where we keep our business because how we view this business is it’s a very high credit quality business. It hasn’t affected us, as Paul just said, but we see it in the industry and it’s obviously a concern, but there is always some seasonality to those recoveries and those statistics reported, but overall, with our high FICOs are 7.70ish range, so it’s not really – it doesn’t really affect us.

Eric Wasserstrom

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

And just one quick follow-up on capital return, I just want to make sure I understand all the dynamics. It seems that there is two trends that are coinciding. One, of course, is the continued increase in targeted payout ratio as a percent of your earnings. And then, of course, there is the expansion in earning of themselves, is that the right way to think about it and is there ever any dynamic to consider?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

You have it right. Well, actually, the only thing I would add is the process itself in terms of the scenarios and things like that, but we have had plenty of cushion, so unless they change dramatically, you’ve got it right.

Eric Wasserstrom

Analyst · Guggenheim. Please go ahead

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Paul Miller with FBR Capital Markets.

Paul Miller

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

Hey, thank you very much and good quarter guys. Talking about mortgage banking a little bit, you talked about that you did about $22 billion of originations in the quarter. And correct me if I am wrong, Brian, but did you mention that your portfolio three quarters of that on to the portfolio? And if you did, what was the breakout between jumbos, just a rough estimate between jumbos and regular conforming or were they all jumbos?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

Yes. So, we balance sheet I think, to be precise, 78% this quarter. And we generally balance sheet all of the jumbos. So then the question is for conforming how much do we do, I don’t really have that in front of me. We are starting to do more conforming, but we are certainly not doing all of it, maybe a good guess would be around half.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

Okay. Paul, just to think about that a second, that credit quality mortgages is so strong that frankly it’s not worth getting the guarantees and things like that, we have the liquidity to fund them and it’s obviously jumbos, but even on conforming, the credit quality of ours is at the top end and I think the charge-off ratio was 3 basis points in the fourth quarter. So economic, it’s better to keep them the pay for the guarantee.

Paul Miller

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

Now we are seeing a lot more people portfolio before what you just said because the guarantees are so expensive, is the PHH, is that all now consolidated down into your operations, the PHH stuff from Merrill Lynch that you brought over?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

Yes, we are getting – it’s finished up and we are still working through the last part of the conversion, but it’s basically in-house.

Paul Miller

Analyst · FBR Capital Markets

Okay. Hey, guys, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Matt O’Connor with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Matt O’Connor: Good morning.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Good morning, Matt. Matt O’Connor: Sorry if I missed it, but did you guys comment on the $53 billion expense target that you put out there, I think it’s exiting 2018 was what you said?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

It’s still good. Matt O’Connor: Okay. So even if revenue is better than expected, but it’s rate-driven, that’s not going to impact expenses materially?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yes. It’s still good and we still target that. And you are exactly right, rate increases will go to the bottom line. Matt O’Connor: Okay. And then separately, credit quality overall is very good, the charge-offs, the non-performers. You did flag the – I think the non-guaranteed consumer early delinquencies, I think it was about 15% 2Q and a little bit year-over-year, just anything to flag there, especially given how quality of the consumer book is?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yes. That was the transfer of servicing that we just talked about on the previous question. Matt O’Connor: Apologies about that. Okay.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

No, that’s good question, but it’s – we transferred servicing at the end of the quarter. When you transfer servicing, you have got to redo all the bill pay. And there is – that’s just the result of not getting all those bill pays done off the quarter. By now, we are probably 90% of the way through that problem. It’s just the timing issue. Matt O’Connor: Okay. And then ex that impact, I assume the earlier stage delinquencies, what would the early stage delinquency look like?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

I think 30-plus day in – mortgage was actually down $40 million, I think.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Absent that.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Absent that issue. Matt O’Connor: Okay, that makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Nancy Bush with NAB Research.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Good morning Nancy.

Nancy Bush

Analyst

Good morning. Brian, could you just talk a little bit about your deposit market share, I mean you are sort of up the Street or around the corner from a company that showed us this morning that they are getting a lot of churn in their deposit base, so are you able to track whether you are benefiting from that?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

I wouldn’t. I don’t think we have specific guidance on that. Our market share – we are growing our deposits faster than market, therefore your market share is growing, where it’s coming from exactly. Nancy, just for a historical perspective, because you have been around this company as this industry for a long time, I had them check something, but from 2007 to today, effectively the deposit per branch have doubled. And the checking account numbers are basically flattish and up maybe 1% or something like that, so think about the dynamics in terms of profitability. So we feel very good about the growth in deposits year-over-year, 12% in checking and 10% overall, so it’s coming from somewhere, I just don’t know where exactly.

Nancy Bush

Analyst

Can you just give us an idea of where – are you gaining more market share through digital, mobile, are you gaining more through people still coming in the branch?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

The answer would be yes because…

Nancy Bush

Analyst

All of the above?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

Yes. Let’s think about it. I think Paul said earlier that mobile sales are 20-odd – 20-ish percent, but that means 80% are not mobile therefore they are coming through other – call centers and branches, so it’s an integrated business system. And Thong and Dean and the team have done a great job of optimizing that. If you look at the chart and watch the cost per deposit, deposit continues to work its way down while there is growth and additional salespeople. So it’s coming. The year-over-year rise in mobile sales is actually faster, obviously, but it’s still only 20% of the contribution.

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

The other thing interesting, by the way, we are using a statistic I really like is we are using – we have digital appointments, so people come into the branch, but they don’t just on walk in. Now, they are coming in for an appointment that they have made with over their smartphones. So that really helps us from an efficiency standpoint as well if we can get people to do that it’s better for them, it’s better for us.

Nancy Bush

Analyst

Okay, yes. My follow-up question is this, I mean we have experienced or we experienced on November 8 sort of a sea change in the thinking about bank regulation going forward and everybody that I have talked to seems to think even if there are not significant changes in what’s on the books, that there will be a “lighter touch” in regulation and I guess I would ask if you are thinking in those terms and if so, do you think that, that will have an impact on your expense figure, expense numbers, number of people you need to add and compliance, etcetera, etcetera, sort of ongoing?

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open

I think Nancy, if you think about it, there are a couple of dimensions obviously. That dimension is well spoken about out there. You saw yesterday, I think the House passed a couple cost benefit analysis type requirements for the SEC and the commodity things, so I think there will be a body of work that will go on to sort of balance, let’s make sure we understand the pluses and minuses a lot of stuff. But the reality, if you think about our company, we have maintained – we invest a lot of talent and capabilities in people, in compliance and risk in ‘10, ‘11, ‘12 and it’s then relatively flat, but the company has shrunk around it, so it’s become a higher percentage, but it’s not – we are able to now start to optimize that, make it better. And so I think if we get that, that’s terrific, that will help us even do more potentially. But even if we don’t, there is optimization to come now. We kind of crested all the different things have gone on in the industry. So first, it was the work of just collecting the bad mortgage and stuff, but now you are optimizing more the way we manage risk in a systems environment and stuff like that, so I look forward – that’s what helps us to get confidence of the future path on costs overall.

Nancy Bush

Analyst

Okay, alright. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our last question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC. Please go ahead.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Good morning Gerard.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Hi Brian, how are you. I have got a question for Paul, you made a comment about that the end of the growth, end of the quarter, you saw some commercial activity, I know Brian referenced already some pickup in middle markets and commercial real estate, but can you give any further color of that commercial activity that you saw in the lending side at the end of the quarter?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. That’s – well, the earnings prep talk into ahead of our middle markets business, our DCB business and our small business banking. They are telling me that they are definitely seeing more interest from CEOs to have meetings. A lot of engagement around ‘17 and what the environment might be, things are feeling a lot more optimistic to those bankers. And it’s not just talk. Late in the quarter, we actually did see an increase in loan balances that was a little – I wouldn’t call it a spike, but there was definitely an acceleration late in the quarter in – particularly in middle market and to a lesser extent us in business banking.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Great. And another question actually Paul, obviously the banking industry has to live by a number of regulations that are dictated by the regulators on capital, liquidity, etcetera, coming back to that operational risk capital number you gave us for businesses that you have exited and no longer are operating in, is that an opinion that the Fed has just laid upon all the banks or is that actually in statutes where – to change it would require a lot of work versus if it’s just the Fed wants to do that to make it extra conservative, maybe a new change in the Fed could maybe give you guys some relief there?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Yes. So we have $500 billion of operational is RWA. I think our closest competitor has $400 billion. And then I think Citi is probably at $300 billion something. So we were given more by the regulators based upon the history of the bank, the acquisitions we did, the losses that were historical. But as you know, we have exited a lot of those products. We – Bank of America never had a risk profile. It was more the companies that we acquired, so it’s a little bit arbitrary. There are models out there for calculating operational risk capital. Those models, there is lot of debate if you follow the Basel Committee process. So we are focused on trying to get that number down. But it’s going to take a little while and we are going to need more clarity from the regulators on how they want to calculate a company’s operational risk capital. But that’s something that would be very helpful to us if new models were approved that were a little bit more rational in terms of looking at historical losses versus the current operations of a company.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

And then just finally. I think in your K, you put your DTA from last year, it might have been around $25 billion for the deferred tax asset, do you have an estimate yet for where it will stand at the end of ‘16?

Paul Donofrio

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Yes, I do. The total DTA, guys keep me honest here, but I think it will be $19 billion. But let me give you the number that kind of matters probably is what you are – if you are thinking about the future. I mean we are not here sitting predicting any tax change, but what really matters if there is to U.S. tax change in the U.S. is, I will use 2015. In 2015, we had over $20 billion of U.S. profits, pretax profits, that’s an important number. And then the other number that’s important is, at year end, our DTAs that would be re-priced if the tax rate changed equaled approximately $7 billion.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Thank you very much.

Brian Moynihan

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Thank you. Alright. So that was the last question. Let me close by closing up ‘16. We had 13% increase in net income for the year, 15% EPS. We had a good operating leverage, with 1% revenue growth and 5% expense growth. And we announced today that we increased our stock repurchase program another $1.8 billion. So that closes off a good year. As we look forward to 2017, we will just continue to do what we told you we are doing: focus responsible growth and we look forward to the benefits of a faster growing economy potentially and the increasing rates. So, thank you for your time and we forward to next time.

Operator

Operator

This will conclude today’s program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great weekend.