Paul Donofrio
Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead
Thanks Brian, good morning everybody. Starting on slide 3, we present the summary of our income statement and returns for this quarter as well as Q2 and Q3 last year. As Brian said, we earned $4.5 billion in the quarter compared to a loss of a couple hundred million dollars last year and earnings of $5.3 billion in Q2. Earnings per share this quarter were $0.37. Let me mention a few larger items that in aggregate benefited diluted EPS this quarter by a penny. First, a negative $597 million market related NII adjustments, primarily FAS 91, cost us about $0.03. More than offsetting this was a $0.02 benefit from DVA of $313 million and a $0.02 benefit from a collective impact of three other items; gains from selling some consumer real estate loans, tax benefits from restructuring some of the non-U.S. subsidiaries, and a provision for payment protection insurance in the UK. Revenues were 20.9 billion this quarter, expenses were 13.8 billion, significantly lower than a year ago because of litigation costs and compared to Q2, expenses were flat as we managed costs well, while investing in our franchise. Return on assets was 82 basis points this quarter and return on tangible common equity was 10%. Turning to slide 4, the balance sheet ended basically flat relative to Q2 with assets of 2.15 trillion. However, we grew deposits 12 billion from Q2 while long-term debt declined by approximately 6 billion. Liquidity rose to nearly $500 billion, a record level and the time required for funding is now three and half years. Tangible common equity of 162 billion improved because of earnings supplemented by 1.5 billion in OTI. This was partially offset by 1.3 billion in capital return to common shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Tangible book value increased 10% from Q3 last year, and our tangible common equity ratio grew to 7.8% as equity improvements outpaced asset growth. With regard to regulatory capital I want to start by pointing out that our transition ratios under Basel III increased with CET1 ending the quarter at 11.6%. However, I will focus my comments on Basel III fully phased in regulatory capital ratios. CET1 capital improved 4.8 billion to 153 billion driven by net income, positive OTI, and DTA utilization. This was partially offset by capital returned to shareholders. Under the standardized approach, our CET1 ratio improved to 10.8% as risk-weighted assets decreased modestly even as loans grew. Under the standardized approaches, the CET1 ratio increased from 10.4% to 11% as RWA improved by roughly 30 billion, largely due to reductions in risk. During the quarter, we announced that we exited parallel loans, and we will begin reporting under the advanced approaches beginning in 4Q. So, we have also presented our CET1 ratio for 9/30 on a pro forma basis, which includes the addition of approximately 170 billion in RWA primarily for wholesale credit under the advanced approaches. The pro forma CET1 ratio at 9/30 was 9.7%, an increase of approximately 40 basis points from Q2 on the same pro forma basis. In terms of the supplementary leverage ratio, we estimate that as of 9/30 we continue to exceed U.S. rules applicable at the beginning of 2018 at both bank and parent. Turning to slide 5, we grew loans and deposits both of which are key drivers to our financial performance. We reported loans on an end of period basis increased 1.2 billion from Q2. However, underneath the consolidated number there was significant activity I want to take a moment to point out. With that in mind, let’s review why loans in all other and LAS are declining. First, the portion of our mortgages that we report in all other continue to run off due to pay downs. This run off is being replaced by new loans which are now reported in business segments like GWIM and consumer where they are originated. Second, also in all other, we converted 6.2 billion of mortgages with long-term standby agreements into securities thereby improving HQLA. These types of conversions are largely complete. Third, we sold roughly 3.6 billion of other mortgages and NPLs as we continue to clean up and optimize the balance sheet. Lastly, in LAS, where we report our legacy home equity portfolio, second lien loans continue to run off. Now, if one excludes the above activities in LAS and all other, ending loans in our primary lending segments increased $19 billion or 3% from Q2. Turning to deposits, on an ending basis, they reached 1.16 trillion this quarter, growing 50 billion or 4% over Q3 last year. We produced solid growth across the franchise. Global banking grew deposits 6% year-over-year. GWIM grew 3%, and consumer grew 7%. However, as you can see at the bottom right , if one includes CD run off, consumer deposits grew 10%. We have also included two other tables to give you a sense of the composition of our deposits. Turning to quality on slide 6, I won't spend a lot of time here as asset quality continued to be strong and mostly consistent with Q2. Net charge offs were flat around 930 million versus adjusted Q2, Q3 provision expense of 806 million, and we released a net 126 million in reserves. Releases in consumer real estate and credit cards were partially offset by reserve builds in commercial. In commercial, we saw small increases in reserve over criticized exposure from Q2 driven by a downgrades in oil and gas that were partially offset by some improvements in the rest of the commercial portfolio. Also noteworthy, the increase in oil and gas reserve over criticized in Q3 was less than half the size of the increase from Q1 to Q2. Turning to slide 7, net interest income on a reported FTE basis was 9.7 billion, declining 1 billion from Q2. The decline in long end rates in the quarter caused adjustments in our bond premium amortization, which resulted in a linked quarter decline in NII of 1.3 billion partially offset by good growth in NII otherwise. The Q2 adjustment increased NII by 669 million while the Q3 adjustment decreased NII by 597 million. NII excluding these adjustments improved 292 million from Q2, to 10.3 billion. Three factors drove this increase. First, we grew core commercial loans. Second, we improved the composition of the balance sheet and our global markets business which improved trading related NII. And third, we benefited from one extra day in the quarter. With regard to asset sensitivity, at the end of the third quarter our overall asset sensitivity increased as a result of the decline in long end rates, which drove the FAS 91 adjustment. As of 9/30, an instantaneous 100 basis point parallel increase in rates is estimated to increase NII by approximately 4.5 billion over the subsequent year with a little more than half of that improvement caused by increases in short end rates. Turning to slide 8, non-interest expense was 13.8 billion in Q3, matching the level of expense reported in Q2. The 20.1 billion expense in Q3 last year included 6 billion in litigation costs. Litigation this quarter and in Q2 was less than 250 million. Excluding litigation, expenses were 13.6 billion in the quarter, a decline of 600 million or 4% from last year and consistent with Q2 despite additional costs related to our CCAR submission. Headcount continues to trend lower, down 6% compared to Q3 last year. LAS costs, excluding litigation, were relatively stable compared to Q2. However, we still expect to lower that number to roughly 800 million in Q4 and move lower in 2016. As a reminder, in the fourth quarter, we tend to experience some seasonal increase in expenses as we close out the year. Let’s walk through the business segments starting on slide 9 with consumer banking. Consumer earned 1.8 billion, 5% greater than Q3 last year. The business segment generated strong 24% return on allocated capital. Revenue increased over last year as increases in non-interest income outpaced the decline in NII. With respect to NII compared to last year, the benefit of higher deposit levels was more than offset by the allocation of ALM activity and lower card yields [ph]. Non-interest income benefited from divestiture gains as well as higher card income driven by increased customer activity while service charges declined. Expenses declined from Q3 last year despite a 5% increase in sales specialist and higher fraud costs in advance of ruling changes regarding EMV chip implementation. Those increases were offset by savings from the continued optimization of our delivery network. The cost of operating our deposit franchise remains low at 180 basis points, and the consumer bank reported an efficiency ratio of 57%. We continue to experience shifts in consumer activity away from branches towards self-service options. Self-service trends are driven by mobile banking, online banking, and ATM usage. Mobile banking customers increased to 18.4 million and deposits via mobile devices now represent 14% of consumer deposit transactions. Mobile processing is better for us and it is better for our customers. It is one-tenth the cost relative to processing of financial centers and more convenient for customers. On slide 10, we present key drivers and trends. Average loans grew across mortgages, card, and vehicle lending. Deposits, as Brian mentioned, continued to increase particularly if one excludes the impact of CD declining. On this basis, deposits were up 10% from the year ago. Regarding brokerage assets, Merrill Lynch accounts crossed the 2 million mark and are up 2%, while asset levels are up 8% from last year even with declines in equity markets this year. Mortgage production, although up from 3Q last year, was down from 2Q as refinances declined. In the future, mortgage banking income in the consumer segment will be lower by approximately $30 million per quarter given the Q3 sale of a small appraisal business. A similar amount of expense should reduce quarterly as well. Looking at our card activity, card issuance was strong at 1.3 million. Combined credit and debit spending volumes were up 3% from last year despite the decline in fuel prices. Average outstandings were down slightly from Q3 last year as customers paid off more of their balances. However, average balances showed modest growth over Q2. U.S. card credit volume was strong as net charge offs declined this quarter to a decade low of 2.5% driving risk-adjusted margins higher to 9.3% excluding divestitures. Turning to service charges, they were down moderately versus Q2 last year -- Q3 last year as we continued to open higher quality accounts that carry higher balances. These higher quality accounts tend to have fewer account fees. Turning to slide 11, global wealth and investment management produced earnings of $656 million. Results were down from Q3 last year driven by lower market values and lower [indiscernible] client activity. Compared to Q3 last year, asset management fees were up 2% but more than offset by declines in transactional revenues. The trend of lower transactional revenues continued this quarter as clients migrated from brokerage to managed relationships which was compounded by lower markets and muted new issuance. On NII, the benefits of higher loan and deposit flows was more than offset by the company's ALM activities driving NII down from Q3 last year. Non-interest expense was modestly higher than the year ago period as litigation costs were higher and wealth advisors grew 6%. Pre-tax margin was 23%, down from a strong Q3 last year. Margins were pressured this quarter by a few factors. First, markets declined pressuring revenue across many products especially those in which we record transactional revenues. Second, operating leverage was challenged as areas of revenue where incentives are high like asset management grew while NII where incentives are much lower declined. Moving to slide 12, despite the lower market levels, business drivers improved. Wealth advisors were up almost 1000 or 6% from Q3 last year. Long-term AUM flows were more than 4 billion, deposits increased more than 7 million, average loans were up 10% from last year, our 22nd consecutive quarter of loan growth in this segment. The last thing I would note that’s not shown here is referral rates across the company remained strong. For example, our retirement solutions business continues to win in the marketplace. We have won more than 1200 retirement plans year-to-date, many of which were referred from global banking. On a year-to-date basis, this is up more than 40% from 2014. Turning to slide 13, global banking’s earnings were 1.3 billion, generating a 14% return on allocated capital. Earnings declined from Q3 last year but were up modestly versus Q2. The comparison to Q3 last year reflects higher provision expense and lower NII driven by the company’s ALM activities as well as increased liquidity costs. Additionally, we saw year-over-year compression in loans spread; however, loan growth was a positive contributor to NII. Growth from Q2 reflects improved NII from loan and deposit growth. Regarding provision expense while flat to Q2, it is up 243 million from last year. We added 125 million to reserves in Q3 compared to a release of 116 million in the year ago quarter. Looking at trends on slide 14, let’s first focus on fees relative to the same period last year given seasonality. Despite a lower level of IBCs this quarter, we maintained our number three global fee position and believe we increased our market share as industry fees pools declined. Investment banking fees for the company this quarter were 1.3 billion, down 5% from Q3 last year. Advisory fees were up 24%. Debt underwriting was down modestly, equity underwriting was down from Q3 last year, in line with industry volume declines. Outside of IB, our treasury fees improved from Q2 on increased activity. Looking at the balance sheet, loans on average were $310 billion up 9% year-over-year and a similar percent relative to Q2 on an annualized basis. The growth was broad across both corporate and commercial borrowers and asset quality was consistent with our overall portfolio. Importantly, the decline in spreads year-over-year flattened as the decline from Q2 was relatively small. On deposits we saw good performance with average deposits increasing by $8 billion over Q2 and we continued to optimize the portfolio improving the composition towards higher quality deposits from an overall LCR perspective. Switching to global markets on slide 15, earnings were $1 billion on revenue of $4.1 billion despite challenging markets. We generated 11% return this quarter. Earnings were up from Q3 last year which included litigation cost of roughly $600 million most of which was non-deductible for tax purposes. As you can see, we had a net DVA gain this quarter which was higher than last year. Total revenues excluding net DVA declined from Q3 last year driven by lower fixed sales and trading and to a lesser extent IBCs, offset partially by improved equity sales and trading. Non-interest expense excluding litigation improved a $102 million versus Q3 last year, up 4% improvement. Moving to trends on slide 16 and focusing on the components of our sales and trading performance. Sales and trading revenue of $3.2 billion excluding net DVA is down 4% from Q3 last year. Comparing to the same period a year ago, fixed sales and trading revenue declined 11%. Similar to the first half of this year the year-over-year comparisons reflect good activity and macro related products like rates and after tax. Conversely, market activity remained muted in credit products driving lower client activity this quarter than Q3 last year. As a reminder, our mix remains more heavily weighted towards credit products driven by the strength of our new issues capability and market share. Equity rose 12% driven by strong performance in equity derivatives reflecting favorable market conditions. Asset levels were down modestly from Q3 last year. Turning to legacy asset servicing on slide 17, this segment lost roughly $200 million. I want to focus on three things here; the reduction in delinquent loans, mortgage banking income, and expenses and compare each to Q2. First, the number of delinquency for mortgage loans continued to decline down 14% this quarter as the teams continued to work through solutions for customers. Second, mortgage banking income declined by more than $400 million. This decline was driven primarily by three factors, servicing fees declined about $50 million as the units we serviced declined. Net MSR and hedge performance declined a $100 million driven by gains on MSR sales in Q2. Reps and warranty provisions swung nearly $300 million from a benefit of $204 million in Q2 to a provision of $77 million this quarter. Lastly, I want to focus on expenses which excluding litigation were flat compared to Q2 as increased professional fees offset improved operating cost from the decline in delinquent loans. We believe we were on-track to achieve our goal of reducing expenses excluding litigation to approximately $800 million in Q4. On slide 18, we show all other which primarily includes our ALM actions and the operations of our UK card business and other smaller activities. While other reported a $503 million pretax loss, more than offset by certain tax benefits. The pretax loss was a result of a negative NII market related adjustments and an increase in provisioning for UK credit card payment protection insurance. This was partially offset by gains from securities and loan sales. Regarding the change in PPI liability, we increased it because of a notice of future regulatory guidance regarding treatments of claims and a case ruling. A comment or two on taxes before we wrap up. The Company's effective tax rate for the quarter was 26%. It was lower than Q2 due to the tax benefits I mentioned earlier. I will expect the tax rate to be roughly 30% next quarter excluding unusual items and specifically the UK, the recent UK tax proposals. In terms of 2016, I would expect it to be in the low 30s. As a reminder from last quarter's announcement we expect that the UK tax proposal announced in July will result in a one-time tax charge of approximately $300 million upon enactment from revaluing our UK DTAs. Let me conclude our prepared comments by offering these takeaways. Although the U.S. economy is improving slowly, revenue growth remains challenging in this interest rate environment. We are focused on those things we can control and drive, these includes delivering for our clients and customers within our risk framework and driving those things we know will result in sustainable profits and returns. Our results reflect this focus. We grew both loans and deposits across our business. We delivered to our corporate institutional clients in a challenging market environment. We stayed focused on managing risk and we kept cost in check while investing in the business. We are getting better positioned each quarter for the current business environment and we remain well positioned to benefit when rates rise. With that let's open it up to Q&A.