Mark Bristow
Analyst · Bernstein Research. Please go ahead
Thank you very much and very good morning and good afternoon to those here at the Barrick corporate office and across the globe. Welcome to the quarter two results presentation. So at the halfway mark of 2024, it's gratifying to report that our performance has been picking up as we work to meet our production guidance for the year. As important as our operations is the progress we are making in advancing our major growth projects. As I will show you during this presentation, a new potential Tier 1 gold mine, 100% owned by Barrick, is taking shape in Nevada. Our copper business is on track for a transformative expansion and the enlarged and upgraded Pablo Viejo is getting into its stride for a new 20-year stretch as a world-class producer. These mines will be delivering new gold and copper into the market at a highly opportune time, demonstrating the value of Barrick's long-term planning and investment strategy, as well as the enormous upside optionality embedded in our asset base. This is the customary cautionary notice regarding forward-looking information. And for those who wants to study it further, you'll find it in full on our website. Starting with the group highlights, the safety, financial, and operational results for the past quarter all point in the right direction, reflecting a business that is delivering across the board. Rising production and increasing margins provide the foundation for a strong second-half, while the financials augur well for our ability to fund our growth and so sustain the delivery of value to our shareholders. How is a closer look at the financials particularly significant are the increase in attributable EBITDA margin to 48% and the substantial free cash flow growth. Gold margins were up 39% quarter-on-quarter, while copper margins rose by 124%. Adjusted net earnings per share were 68% higher quarter-on-quarter, and debt net of cash was reduced by 12%. And the share buyback program was restarted and the courtly dividend maintained at $0.10 per share. Operationally, gold production increased slightly quarter-on-quarter. Slightly higher costs were a function of higher royalties, but for all intents and purposes the costs were flat and the drivers of the costs were really set with PV as we ramped up and then the push backs in Carlin and Cortez. Copper production increased with costs falling thanks to higher grades and mining fleet upgrades and looking ahead we expect materially higher production from PV, Turquoise Ridge, and La Moana into the second-half of the year. If you look at our detailed health and safety report, it's very pleasing to show you how that the performance continues to trend positively as we pursue our zero-harm goal. Our approach to sustainability has always been holistic and embedded in our business. It is a differentiated approach focused on the long-term and the understanding that all environmental and social aspects are interconnected and integrated. Our approach is always based on science and it needs to be measurable. This is why we developed the Industry-First Sustainability Scorecard to track and disclose our sustainability performance. We also link our targets and reports to the UN Global Compact and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs, which itself calls for an approach to sustainability that resonates with our strategy. And that is why we have developed and launched our own comprehensive biodiversity assessment tool during the past quarter. It is designed to measure our impacts on nature and inform actionable conservation strategies and in time to come, targets to measure against, while maintaining a human-focused lens for the development of our host communities in our goal to alleviate poverty. Our integrated approach extends to our climate change strategy, and the addition of 200 megawatts of renewable solar energy at the TS Power Plant in Nevada is another contributor. So we start the operational review as usual in North America, where Nevada Gold Mines hosts three of our Tier 1 mines, with another in the making at the adjacent 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile project. Fourmile is a particularly exciting prospect. The more we learn about it, the more it looks like it could be the largest undeveloped high-grade gold deposit in the world today, directly adjacent to Nevada Gold Mine's existing infrastructure in one of the world's best mining jurisdictions. World's best mining jurisdictions. Following the completion of the Sage autoclave maintenance shutdown in the first quarter, Turquoise Ridge increased in production by 16%, while Carlin focused on underground development to improve its operational flexibility to offset the gold quarry pit redesign following the pit wall failure in Q1 and Gold Rush continued to ramp up at Cortez. With that let's look at take a closer look at Fourmile, which is adjacent to Gold Rush, but as I said in the previous slide is 100% owned by Barrick. I'm going to pause here, so that you can digest the very significant intersections by the 10 diamond core drill rigs currently on site. If you look at these drill rigs, drill intersections, they rarely remind one of yesteryear, the gold strikes, the Carlins, the big discoveries. And many are in the 2 ounce per tonne category. Really, Fourmile reminds me of those company-making Carlin deposits of the past, a world-class project in every sense. As we shared with you last quarter, we're planning to have an updated mineral resource towards the end of the year when you'll make a decision about the pre-feasibility options. But as I said this is really one of those assets that geologists dream about. In the fullness of time I believe this asset has the potential to be as valuable to Barrick as our current stake in Nevada gold mines. And that's before our geologists find more of those Carlin elephants that I keep talking about. And that takes me to the 14 million ounce Leeville project, which like Gold Rush is developing into another major growth driver with the potential to double or triple current reserves extending Carlin's life beyond 2045. And I think this is significant just to dwell a little bit further on it. And when you look at what we're dealing with today, we did a number of transactions in 2019, 2020. We never paid a premium for any of them. Embedded in those transactions are these types of ore bodies. And what we're doing now is bringing them to the fore and working to get them into our production profile. And you'll see more of this as you go, but just before I leave North America and Nevada in particular, so we've got Gold Rush driving Cortez Complex. We've got the emerging Leeville expansion driving Carlin. And of course Turquoise Ridge stands on its own as a high-cost, low-grade, low-cost producer. And really that is the future of Nevada. And then when you see the sort of quality coming out of Fourmile, you've got to believe that there's more opportunities to make new discoveries in this region, and that's our focus. So leaving the North Americas, we moved now to Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region, where our flagship growth project, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine extension is up and running again. In Papua New Guinea, the recently restarted Porgera mine is ramping up to commercial production, while in Pakistan the Reko Diq feasibility study is on track for completion this year. Work has already started on the construction of what we term early works infrastructure, while a recruitment drive focused on employees from the Balochistan province, which is the very foundation of what we're going to build Reko Diq. Just a reminder that the Pueblo Viejo project is designed to increase annual production sustainably above 800,000 ounces for 20-plus years. After the failure of the conveyor infrastructure last year, it has now been rebuilt and the focus over the past three months has been on throughput. For the third quarter, attention is now on grinding, flotation and recovery, ramping to achieve design output parameters. In the meantime, work on the new El Naranjo tailing storage facility is advancing as planned. Now you can see how the project has advanced over the past 12-months and the outlook for the remainder of the year. Now to Africa and Middle East region, which delivered its usual reliable performance with steady production and well-contained costs. These are the highlights and I'll tell you more about them as we go along. Another steady quarter for Loulo-Gounkoto with cash costs well contained and all in sustaining costs impacted by additional stripping for the [Indiscernible] pit pushback. Positive results from ongoing brownfields exploration point to further life of mine extension opportunities. And as we indicated last quarter we continue to engage with the government of Mali on their desire to increase their benefits from the mining industry, while protecting our rights and the economic viability of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex going forward. In the North of the Loulo permit, drill results from the Baboto target have identified a large-scale well-endowed system with high-grade intercepts. This, along with other near-mine targets, all goes well for Loulo-Gounkoto to again replace the gold they mine this year. And across to the DRC where Kibali picked up speed after a slow start to the year with waste stripping providing access to higher grade open pit ore. Meanwhile, next year's planned commissioning of its solar power and battery storage facility will complement the mine's three hydropower plants, increasing the renewable component of its energy use to 85% and in fact for six months of the year we'll have a 100% renewable energy driving our power delivery. As at Loulo-Gounkoto, Brownfield's exploration continues to deliver further potential for growth, with high-grade results from the [Indiscernible] targets pointing to a significant deposit within just four kilometers of the plant. The prolific KCD trend is also producing new opportunities for reserve additions and therein lies the quality -- that what we you know everyone sort of created a definition of Tier 1 assets, but real Tier 1 assets come with enormous upside opportunity as you see in Loulo-Gounkoto and at Kibali and significantly in in Nevada. In Tanzania North Mara and Bulyanhulu both increased production, while driving down costs and the resuscitation of these mines is one of our major success stories, as is the concept of Fourmile benefit sharing partnerships with host countries, which we successfully pioneered with the Tanzanian government. The Lumwana copper mine in Zambia delivered a higher production at lower costs in line with the plan and is set for an even stronger second-half of the year. The mine is also on the threshold of its super pit expansion, which will increase production to some 240,000 tons of copper and extend the operations life by more than 30-years. First production of this project is expected, or from this project is expected in 2028. The Lumwana super pit and Reko Diq are two of the organic growth projects I referred to at the start of the presentation and which are recapped here. Together, they will provide powerful support for Barrick’s drive to grow our gold equivalent production by 30% during this decade. And it's worth reminding you that Reko Diq will be both a gold and a copper mine, designed to produce 400,000 tonnes of copper on an annual basis and 500,000 ounces of gold per year in Phase 2 of its development. Add to that the ramp up of basically two new mines, Gold Rush and PV, to be followed by a potential brand new mine in Fourmile, of which Barrick owns 100% and which can utilize the existing Nevada Goldmine's infrastructure and processing facilities. Barrick has an unmatched growth portfolio that separates us from the industry with prospects of even more to come from our ongoing exploration initiatives. So this brings me to a subject I have been flagging for some time and that is how undervalued Barrick shares are today. So to end my presentation I wanted to take you through some research based on consensus net asset value of our assets. On this slide, we highlight two of our key businesses. On the left of the slide, you have Nevada Gold Mines, which is by far the best gold asset in the world's most mining friendly jurisdiction. The right side shows our growing copper business is well on track to becoming world class amongst peers, some of which have recently attracted international attention. Moving one step further, this table identifies the unrealized value embedded in Barrick’s within Barrick’s portfolio. Nevada Goldmines on its own should command the industry's highest valuation. On that basis, this analysis conservatively assumes the price to NAV multiple equivalent to that of Agnico Eagle, although arguably NGM would be higher rated given its size and quality. The analysis applies a similarly conservative market multiple to our copper assets in line with copper peers, although again I would note that the recent BHP London transaction ascribed significantly higher multiples to those undeveloped copper assets in Argentina. Again the analysis is based on the current analysis consensus NAVs, but we expect these NAVs to increase as we will be publishing updated feasibility studies on our two key growth projects at the end of the year. As you can see from the table, on the basis of the analysis, the value of just our interest in the Nevada gold mines and our copper portfolio alone exceeds our current market cap. In fact, according to the current market value of our shares, the rest of our business has a negative value of $1.2 billion. This includes our interest in three Tier 1 gold mines outside Nevada, the world-class Fourmile project, other gold mines and development projects still in the pipeline, and our exploration team's unparalleled success in covering and uncovering new answers. In short, I would submit that when you buy a Barrick today you get a lot for free. We set out in 2019 to build a sustainably profitable gold and copper mining company focused on world-class assets. We did not have to buy them at a premium, as I indicated in my introduction. They were embedded in the combined portfolio that we put together at market. And just required identification, evaluation, development and delivery, which is where we are today. On top of that, we have replaced all the ounces we have mined and repaired our balance sheet to be industry leading and capable of supporting our dividend policy and growth plans. Clearly, Barrick represents an investment opportunity unmatched in our sector, and I hope you'll leave the presentation with a clearer understanding of why the case for such an investment is so compelling. Thank you all for your attention, and we'll be happy to take questions as usual. Where do you want to start? Here, in the audience, Okay.