Mark Bristow
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen to everyone particularly who have dialed in here today and I will pose a very good afternoon to all of you who made the effort to come out here. I did explain when we announced the potential merger between Randgold and Barrick that we would come back to London and present to you our progress and you'll be pleased to know that yesterday we had the formal Barrick board meeting here in London as well. So we did keep our word. And so it's now just over 10 months since the merger between Barrick and Randgold Resources went live. That stated aim of the new Barrick was to create the world's most valued mining company and in the process to set an example of a modern mining business for an industry in need of invigoration and there is no better time to talk about this because really everyone does morning but it's an absolute core component of everyday life and we as miners have a big challenge to get accepted by the communities and the investment, the investors as well. And we at Barrick are absolutely committed to make sure that we change the way we do business on a day-to-day basis. It's very pleasing today as we report on our results for the first quarter or the third quarter since the merger, to share with you the progress that we've made and where we’re going to achieve exactly that goal. Before we go any further, please take note of the cautionary notice which is also on our website for those slow readers or some anybody who wants to sort of delve deeper into the statement. This is our scorecard that we shared with the world back in on the 23rd of September 2018, when we announced the merger. As you can see, when you compare what we said we would do with what we have done, every box has been ticked. Most significantly, we've re-engineered Barrick’s corporate structure, and strengthened every team. On the Nevada joint venture in line with our focus on Tier 1 and strategic assets, reevaluated and optimized our orebodies by getting back to the geological basics and improved our operational performance to generate strong cash flows for funding further investment growth and returns to shareholders. Health and safety of our workers is a key concern in all that we do and its management is delivering positive results. Loss time injuries have decreased for the third quarter in a row. The slight increase in total engines injury frequency rate that you see on the slide is a key leading indicator which results from our increased focus on recording every single safety incident, no matter how small it is. The ultimate aim of course is to achieve a zero injury work environment. Like safety, care for the environment and the community is a core component of Barrick’s business philosophy, and certainly for us, not just another governance exercise. I've often spoken about the need for mining companies to earn a social license to operate. And this is becoming more pressing for us as miners as I indicated in my introduction. The recent worldwide extinction rebellion protests are a third demonstration that society at large is demanding fundamental changes from our industries. Although everyone wants our products, mining is particularly unloved. And if we are to survive in the longer-term, as I pointed out, we will have to align our practices with these expectations and that is our intention at Barrick. These are the highlights of our third quarter. And as you can see, they show that Barrick has become a very different company. Our operational performance has improved across the board, earnings have significantly exceeded the consensus, debt has been further reduced, such that we now boast one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry and the dividend has been increased by 25%. We’re well on track to end the year at the higher end of our production and lower end of our cost guidance ranges for 2019. When you get abroad, the results are measurable in the numbers driven by a positive contribution from Nevada Gold mines and with all our assets positioned to take advantage of the higher gold price, adjusted earnings per share increased by 67% quarter-on-quarter and 88% year-on-year. I should point out that in line with the appropriate content treatment for the recent formation of the Nevada joint venture, there has been some fair value adjustments that have impacted the net earnings as well as a notable write-up at Lumwana where improved plant availability, and significant cost reductions contributed to a $947 million increase in its value. The operating results reflect the progress we've made in driving improvements across the portfolio with the gold mines in lines with or ahead of their production, guidance and copper production increased by 15% from the second quarter, mainly due to record throughput and higher grades at Lumwana driven by the same fundamental and sustainable improvements that have enabled us to ratchet up its value. Turning now to the specific operations and starting in Nevada with Cortez, I must first start by paying tribute to the Nevada joint venture leadership. We have done an outstanding job in integrating large and complex operations into a single business in a very short time. Looking at these operations, Cortez achieved the top end of its target and when you look at these results, the apparent drop in production is due to the fact that the Nevada joint venture reduced Barrick’s interest in Cortez to 61.5% from 100%. Costs were contained despite the depletion of the Cortez Hills open pit as we guided at the beginning of the year, and the transition to a higher proportion of the double refractory underground ore. The Deep South project has completed its permitting process has now received its record of decision and is scheduled to start contributing to production next year. Production at Carlin, the former Newmont Goldcorp Mine which now also includes Barrick’s Goldstrike was in line with target. The combination of a lower cut-off grade step outs and the initial optimization of the underground mining operations is expected to add significant additional ounces to reserves at this complex. There's lots more to build on at Carlin with Brownfields potential around both mines including the greater level of underground extensions, and the prospect of a significant inventory increase in an under explored little balder basin prospect. Turquoise Ridge now combined with Twin Creeks has an integrated mining and post as an integrated mining and processing operation is a standout example of the benefits of the Nevada joint venture. Production was up 26% from the second quarter. The cost impact of lower grade open pit ore from Twin Creek was partially offset by more tons processed from Turquoise Ridge underground and increased throughput rates at the plant. The sinking Hoist for the third shaft project is on track for commissioning in the fourth quarter of this year. The shaft will significantly improve the ventilation and that is the big hold up in expanding the underground production at the moment, the efficiencies and synergies brought about from the combination of the two operations has already allowed the reduction in the cut-off grade as again we forecast. This is expected to increase reserves significantly, in fact by more than 1 million ounces. Phoenix and Long Canyon make up the full picture of the mines in the Nevada Gold mine portfolio albeit they are smaller contributors to the joint venture. At Phoenix the timing of copper sales impacted costs, while at Long Canyon, the mine had a strong performance with costs noticeably lower than our guidance and our review is underway to extend the life of mine with the Phase 2 expansion. At the time of announcing the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, we indicated to the market rather controversially might add that the Nevada joint venture would deliver synergies to the value of $450 million to $500 million per year over the first five years of the full production of the project. And I'm pleased to say we're well on track to achieve that. These are the key projects and the synergy top line and so far, we have clipped the coupons for a total value of $311 million and we expect to get to our guidance by the beginning of next year, there are still more opportunities in addition to the synergies that we identified in the longer term and some of these would include particularly the boundaries that were sterilized between the two companies and then the big focus for us is about an million ounces of significant grades ore along the boundary between Carlin and Goldstrike. And in particular, the portions of the mines we refer to as Deep Post Tara and the Northstar Frontier boundary for those who know Nevada at all. Some of the key projects we are working on at Nevada Gold Mines include the Turquoise Ridge shaft that I've already referred to the Cortez Deep South project. Again, we've just received the record of decision, Robertson, Rita K, which is an underground block in Carlin, the level underground extensions, which we're very excited about, and the exploration potential across the portfolio, which includes as I referred to earlier, the Little Boulder Basin, where we've got two bore holes, legacy bore holes that are significant in the intersections. Nevada Gold Mines also has a future growth opportunity at the Goldrush complex, where twin exploration declines are being developed to improve access to the orebody and enable further drilling for resource conversion. Notably, we successfully submitted a plan of operations during the quarter to commence permitting for the project, and we expect approval for that project in two years time. This follows the successful receipt as I pointed out of the record of decision for the Deep South project in September of this year. Fourmile and Goldrush are now being treated as a single project. Although Fourmile has not yet been included in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. Drilling in the southern part of Fourmile has recently returned the best yet intercepts in fact in literally three quarters, we've had best intercepts in the Fourmile project. And the boundary between Goldrush and Fourmile is reduced to just 100 meters. And you'll see the intercept there, that FM19-46D has a significant intercept. Remanence of the original Goldstrike intercepts if some of you sort of more bleached hair. People will remember that make. And also about a kilometer to the north of the Fourmile resource, we announced at Denver, a new discovery borehole and that is very significant. You'll see it on the inset down on the bottom left of the screen. And we expect that we will continue to add to the resources and we are guiding to a significant increase in resources when we come out with annual reserve and resource statements next year. Moving north to Canada and to Hemlo, which as you would have seen from the recent press releases, is being re-engineered and refocused as a modern underground operation, like Barrick’s African mines. At the time of the Barrick Randgold merger, there was some debate about Hemlo’s viability, but the anticipated performance improvements are now expected to secure its future. In Latin America, Pueblo Viejo which lock the Nevada Gold Mines is a joint venture between Barrick and Newmont Goldcorp. It had a very good quarter with production trending to the top end of its guidance and costs down. The plant expansion project at Pueblo Viejo is one of Barrick’s most exciting growth prospects. The project is designed to improve throughput significantly allowing the mine to maintain annual gold production of some 800,000 ounces well beyond the next decade. The pre-feasibility study of the plant expansion project is scheduled for completion by the end of this year, and the combined feasibility study for the plant expansion and the new TSF site is forecast for next year. Pueblo Viejo is enormous resource base is in a class of its own and just able, just being able to demonstrate the viability of the expansion project and secure the permitting for the new TSF facility, we estimate will add an additional 11 million ounces of resources to its minable reserves with still more likely to come from the ongoing drilling programs at that project. The Dominican Republic is one of Barrick’s go to destinations and a dedicated exploration team is also building a portfolio of opportunities there outside the joint venture. Further south and then at in Argentina, Veladero was one of our biggest initial challenges on the closure of the transaction and the team there has done a really good job in driving down costs, improving efficiencies, addressing some mainly environmental legacy issues and rebuilding the relationships with the community, the province and the country. In conjunction with our partners at Shandong, we're working towards restoring that mine to its prior Tier 1 status. In the meantime, connecting Veladero to the cheaper power available from Pascua across the border in Chile will also reduce operating costs further, as well as reduce our carbon footprint materially. Staying in the region, we have identified lots of opportunities in and around Veladero but outside the current mine plan. Latest results indicate the potential to extend the mines life to the end of next decade. We're also relooking at the Pascua Lama project as well as advancing the Rojo Grande and our tourists targets along the highly perspective El Indio Belt. We now have dedicated exploration groups in Argentina, Peru and Chile all focused on evaluating our current portfolio which is not unsubstantial as well as securing more opportunities along the Andean trend. Moving now across the Pacific, and into Papua New Guinea, Porgera represents both an opportunity and a challenge in a different operating environment, in a very difficult operating environment, the mine increased gold production by 23% quarter-on-quarter on the back of higher throughput and slightly better grades. At the same time, Porgera has been negotiating with the government for a 20-year extension to its recently expired special mining license. Although our obligations are directly with the government, there are many interest groups in this process, not least of which are the local landowners and provincial government. So you can imagine, the environment is quite dynamic, and it's probably going to increase until we get final resolution on the terms of the renewal. Barrick’s new geological focus at Porgera has identified a multi-million ounce potential based on extensions to the known orebodies and associated structures. This has the potential to extend Porgera’s life of mine significantly. Across the Africa then where the Loulo-Gounkoto Complex delivered its usual solid performance, with gold production up 4% on the previous quarter. Loulo is currently in the process of commissioning the group's first major solar power plant, which will help to curb costs as well as to reduce its carbon footprint. This is in line with Barrick’s policy of switching to lower mission energy sources wherever it can. Brownfield exploration at Yalea and Gounkoto continue to replenish the asset base, ensuring that we will sustain the complex 10-year production plan. Across the border in Senegal, Barrick’s Massawa project is currently being permitted. The Mali Senegal border region, for those who are not aware already hosts a large number of gold mining operations with a district mineral inventory estimated at a plus six million ounces and it remains highly prospective and we continue to hold a big position in that region and our geologists are always on the hunt for that next world class discovery. Having delivered Massawa, our geologists focus has shifted to the Bambadji big joint venture. Three very interesting corridors have already been defined there and some significant targets have been scheduled for drilling when the dry season starts. Barrick’s new emphasis on exploration is expanding its African footprint. From its original base in West Africa, Randgold moved into the DRC with Kibali and following the Acacia, Barrick is now expanding its portfolio across the Congolese and Tanzanian cratons which we believe hold the potential for more Tier 1 discoveries. Operationally Kibali is trending well and like Loulo has a solid mine plan for producing plus 600,000 ounces per year for at least 10 years. The lower income for the quarter, I would just point out on the slide is attributable to the higher depreciation following the merger fair value adjustments is not really particular for the actual performance this last quarter. As at Loulo, Brownfields exploration continues to deliver good results identifying multiple open pit opportunities along the KZ zone as well as extending the underground reserve base. We are also working on a project to evaluate the potential for more underground orebodies similar to the current KZD underground orebodies that made Kibali the giant it is today. Tanzania's Lake Victoria Gold district has long been an outside and the roll up of Acacia has opened up the country for us. You are familiar with the Acacia story, and I don't want to dwell on it again. But it would be remiss of me not to say that the way the business and operations were previously managed left a lot to be desired. After agreeing with a government on a settlement of its disputes with the company, our focus now is on fixing the operations and managing out the legacy liabilities. I believe the agreement we reached with the Tanzanian government is a groundbreaking model for partnerships between mining companies and their hosts in Africa at a time when the industry is facing a rising tide of resource nationalization. It provides for the 50:50 sharing of the economic benefits created by our operations in Tanzania, which will be managed by a company jointly owned by the government in a fully transparent manner known as Twiga, the Swahili name for Tanzania’s national animal, the Giraffe, this company recently had its inaugural meeting, which was attended by all parties. We expect the transaction to formally close during this current quarter. Operationally, Tanzania struggled during the quarter with the suspension of mining operations at North Mara for most of the quarter and the results reflect this disruption. As you know, operations resumed near the end of quarter three, and we expect a more normal quarter during full quarter four. This is a quick look at the rest of our gold mines which did not -- did all did reasonably well with the exception of Kalgoorlie. As previously highlighted, a sales process for Kalgoorlie has been initiated in line with our policy, of disposing of non-core assets which we expect to advance in quarter four. We continue to expect to realize in excess of $1.5 billion in value from our asset disposals by the end of next year. As I noted earlier, Lumwana was the standout achiever in our copper portfolio, achieving record throughput and increasing production by 33% quarter-on-quarter. Sales were impacted at Lumwana by the refurbishment of one of the smelters that processes the mines concentrate and we expect the situation to be resolved by the end of this year. With the integration of geology and grade control into our mine planning and first bash had optimized life of mine plans as promised carries a five-year outlook for the group. We have transferred responsibility for orebody, ore reserve and resource modeling, as well as mine planning back to the operations as we said we would at the time of the merger. We are also working on a 10-year plan to service the group's foundation for capital allocation, budgeting and forecasting. This will be supported by the rollout of new information management systems designed to drive real time decision making through the availability of real time data. We expect to share the 10-year production plan with the market in our 2019 annual report next year. As you can see here, the group five-year plan is very consistent with our previous five-year guidance of 5.1 to 5.6 million ounces, showing a steady and slightly increasing production profile with costs declining over the period. Looking at the underlying regions in more detail, the North American region now includes our interests in the newly formed Nevada Gold Mine joint venture, which has had a significant impact on the group's profile, higher cost assets contributed from Newmont combined with the significant synergies we have identified and its effect on lowering cut off grades have all impacted the blended cost profile of the business. As I mentioned earlier, this is our very first effort at putting this complex business together. So I have no doubt the team will further refine this profile as we go forward. The LATAM and Asia-Pacific profile includes our first estimates for the expansion of Pueblo Viejo in Dominican Republic, which has had a significant impact on capital and all-in sustaining costs albeit the real benefits from this project will materialize beyond the five-year window. We’re also making further investments at our Veladero mine to access perspective ground as we strive to return this asset back to Tier 1 status. And in Africa and the Middle East region, the profile remains relatively consistent with previous guidance given with the exception of course of Tanzania, where we have included our bid model as the base case, you will remember the argument we had with Acacia and we presented out that model. In particular, this includes, as of today, about $200 million of capital for Bali in 2020, which in all reality is likely to be smoothed over this next year and the year thereafter, and is still dependent on the feasibility work we are undertaking as we aim at the restart of underground operations by quarter four, 2020. The copper profile shows the improvement that the improvements that are ongoing and the improvement as well in efficiencies and cost reduction initiatives at Lumwana specifically. And really, this has kept our production profile relatively steady and certainly a viable business even at these lower copper process that we're experiencing at the moment. I started with our scorecard for the nine months to September and pointed out that we have ticked all the boxes. And so here, is our to do list going forward and I have no doubt that our team will be able to deliver on these and again, this time next year, I'll be taking those boxes as well. And I'm sure we'll find a few more to add as we go through this year and into next year. I end this presentation as usual with a look at how Barrick stacks up in the market against the gold equities and the gold price. As you can see from the chart, we have been clear outperformers versus both the GDX and the gold price since the announcement of the value creating merger with Randgold. While much has been achieved, there is no doubt in my mind, that much remains to be done. I hope today's presentation ladies and gentlemen has given you an insight into the many internal and external opportunities for sustainable profit and profitable growth that are within our reach at Barrick, I thank you for your attention. And we'll be happy to take questions. We’ve actually got quite a big contingent of Barrick people in the audience. Sure, we can take pretty much deal with any questions you could come up with. We’re going to start with the call people first and then we'll come into back to people here in London.