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Barrick Mining Corporation (B)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 3, 2017

$39.17

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Transcript

Christopher Lewis Coleman

Management

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to Randgold's Second Quarter Results. Few words from me before handing over to Mark. Another good quarter has positioned Randgold very well at the mid-year to achieve the targets that it set itself for 2017. This is a commendable performance, particularly when considered in the context of an operational environment that remains challenging for the mining industry, including in Africa. The continuing state of global geopolitical flux is impacting on Africa as well with public policy not always directed at building prosperous economies but instead sometimes focus on shorter term political interests. For the mining industry, it is essential that the host governments have a longer term perspective and can provide the stability required to encourage the necessary investments that generates the jobs, taxes and many other benefits. Now critical tested with is the approach the country has taken to their mining codes, where recently there has been a trend towards codes being put under review or key provisions being disregarded. In these circumstances, it is more important than ever for Randgold to demonstrate the value of partnerships and the importance of long-term mutual commitments with those governments. This also makes effectively by sharing the substantial value it creates with those shareholders and through programs that make a meaningful contribution to the communities around its mines, thus strengthening its social license. So with no further ado, I will now hand over to, Mark, who will tell you more about this in the course of his presentation on the second quarter results. Thank you very much.

Mark Bristow

Management

Thank you, Chris, and again good morning, ladies and gentlemen. As you will recall, we had a very good first quarter this year, first best one for some five years. And quarter two is really another example of the Randgold team being able to build on that performance and deliver on plan. And I think now just to refer to operations, but another key component of today's message is the progress that we've made on the exploration front. And I've actually just come back from annual trip with the geologists through all our exploration operations and I'll share with you some of the current results and just upfront, I'm very excited about us being able to deliver this on the three and five objective that we shared with you just under a year ago. As Chris has noted, it's not always plain failing operating and developing goldmines in Africa but with our African roots and our experience and seasoned in-country management teams, we remain well equipped to engage with our various stakeholders and manage our business in a sustainably profitable way as I hope I'm going to demonstrate to you this morning. I'll start as usual with our safety, health and environmental scorecard. And sadly have to report that our excellent safety records, which we've really being delivering on for consistently now for some time, was blemished by a fatal accident involving two drivers at one of hauling contracts at Kibali in the quarter. In fact it's worth nothing that all the safety issues for the quarter, both at Kibali and at Tongon were associated with contractors. And it's not identified of course if there is any less of an incident if it's under contract that we carry that responsibility in our organization in an incident like that. But needless…

Q - Daniel Major

Management

Daniel Major from UBS. Two questions. Firstly, when I look at the consensus for your dividends for this year, consequently the cash balance that would imply would suggest the market thinks you're going to do an M&A or carry a cash balance much larger than your $500 million target. Is there any M&A you're looking at on the moment on that gets something like close to your investment criteria?

Mark Bristow

Management

So the answer to that is it depends, as you describe as M&A, but if it means paying a premium for an unprofitable gold asset to the mine. So it's an ongoing very-focused joint-ventures and/or acquisitions. We're certainly focusing on as far as mineralized and opportunity side but we are not talking about chains or even hundreds of millions of dollars. So that's to answer that. The next one down as I pointed out, that these are consensus or analysts approve our dividends. So while the listen the people guess and I don't know where they got that from.

Daniel Major

Management

And my second question is on Massawa. Could you give us some update on your sort of expected timeline for board approval?

Mark Bristow

Management

So we are saying - the board approval, the way it works is the bankable feasibility study and final stuff. We are very integrated company that it's a progressive decision-making. We'd end sort of late and present to a big PowerPoint presentations in the board and hold our breath while they contemplate and even say yay or nay. It's a continuous discussion today. The whole thing is battle, so we are managing and dealing with that. The biggest state and better ounces and lower cost. Mid-next year is the target of time. The decision will come somewhere around that time, maybe even before because most of the time guide this year because we had got strict criteria and we know that once you get through that criteria, it's an automatic decision. The key for us, as I pointed out in the presentation is, for management to deal with - we don't rely on any other person to make that recommendation to develop a mine base other than ourselves, to use lots of expertise. But we don't say independently validated, yes, and we can build the mine. We say our reputation is exactly that decision to build the mine. And with that, the fact is like in Loulo, we've started Loulo with 1.5 million ounces. If you remember we had just drilled those line of both at Yalea and Gara and we were absolutely sure that we will take this underground. And so you had visibility of multi-million ounce reserves. And really that's where we - that's our focus is you listen to my presentation. That's where we are now. The bankability of Massawa there and thereabouts. Can you really show that you will get out of a 3 million ounces and what exactly is the optionality in that project and that's really our focus and it will be our focus for the next three quarters. As far as the nitty-gritty feasibility stuff, those we've already engaged with governments. We are about to appoint - they are about appoint to a joint ministry council so that is a one-stop shop on permitting and process and all that sort of stuff, and our sort of on the feasibility is ongoing but the ultimate decision-maker is the financial model itself.

Daniel Major

Management

Very quickly follow-up next. What sort of CapEx would then imply for sort of 2019?

Mark Bristow

Management

So for 2019.

Daniel Major

Management

You mean you get approval in funding and...

Mark Bristow

Management

Graham, have we got that? Yes, that would be on the top side because we never said you wanted to in the first round.

Daniel Major

Management

Okay. Thanks.

Alain Gabriel

Management

Hi Mark. Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley. Two questions, if I may. Firstly on the dividends or the cash contributions for the JV entities. I sense or you injected around $18 million this quarter. I presume that's mostly at Kibali. And has it been spend mostly on CapEx? And the next part of that question is, how do you expect the cash flows within the group [indiscernible] going forward? And the second question is on the VAT [ph] balance in Mali which continues to grow in the quarter. Are you - how are the discussions going with the Malian government around that balance? Thanks.

Mark Bristow

Management

So if you take gold price of the current sort of 1,200 just to answer your second question - the second part of the first question. We're guiding net of dividend as we pay this year, so $94 million that's in our model. So there is around $660 million balance at the end of the year. If you add the $94 million, that's just enough. If you add the $94 million back, it's $750 million cash at the end of the year. And that's everything provided for. So I'm not sure where you're getting anything else but that's what we forecasting to be able to get to everything being equal. So that's the first point on cash flow. Second thing - and so we will sit down with the board as we promised and we'll look at our cash burn maybe if you see what's coming out of that because maybe we want to increase the exploration spend or whatever we want to do against what we guided long-term but at the end of day that review what you'd like to keep and what you'd like to give back shareholders. That's always an interesting debate. The $30 million in Randgold and processing to Kibali and really the reason for it is that we have got this big outstanding to PBA claim - well, claim we have been working with Congolese government on offsetting the taxes to get some of the strategy stuff but number from growing and we've made good progress this last quarter in getting to that point. But at the same time we had a critical stage of our development of the mines and we didn't want the mine to stretch the creditors to a point where they impacted on the capital. And so really it was about managing our creditors and to ensure that we can put maximum pressure on them to deliver these very critical phase in the last two quarters of this year. So that's really the answer to that. We mixed. We've got so cash back from Kibali but we just couldn't tell the exactly because we just thought. Usually in Randgold, it's strict management. There is no money issues in Randgold in one of those. And we make people find the solution and of course one of them is setting the perimeter but [indiscernible] not constructive to a lot of what's happening. What was the other question?

Alain Gabriel

Management

On the VAT [ph] balance in Mali?

Mark Bristow

Management

Okay. So the balance, you want to know the balance?

Alain Gabriel

Management

No, the balance…

Mark Bristow

Management

You just want to know where we are with the discussions?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Microphone Inaccessible]

Alain Gabriel

Management

Thank you.

Mark Bristow

Management

And on the backstay, again we are making progress in our engagement with Malians and the key one - Mali, we're going to offset. So unlike in DRC where you have to negotiate the offset. And so we offset but it's important also to have the correct VAT balance. And so that's where our focus has been in the last short while is getting closer on that and we've made progress on that. Then we can argue about the risk.

Alain Gabriel

Management

Thank you.

James Bell

Management

Hi Mark, it's James Bell at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The first question is around costs. Some of your peers have been reporting a little bit about cost inflation comes back in. Are you seeing that anywhere in the group? And in terms of Tongon, I guess, what's the mix going to look like going forward, you obviously have the backup power now in place or what's the mix going to be looking for that going forward? And the second question is really around jurisdictional risk. There has been a bit of rise in population elsewhere in Africa obviously globally arguing as well. How do you feel about the DRC here and how can you reassure shareholders that in a scenario whether it's going to be volatility that you don't think operations would be impacted?

Mark Bristow

Management

So costs. Yes, we don't see - we don't plan on stocks. So that's first of all, we don't get a big surprise in [indiscernible]. We have a longer term. When we manage our business, we manage it by $1,000 gold cost and it allows the margin to manage the normal cyclicality of the industry. And also with some of the key components that we are less sure about, we run at it $65 long-term in making our decisions. We haven't - I would be hesitate to suggest and you probably must make the decision is the industry is structuring some grade and it's the first thing that manifest to me costs. No one apart from us talk about cots per ton. And so that's our big focus is cost per ton. That's how we manage our business and of course we worry about dilution. And we have a higher grade profile in most of the industry and this quarter and first half of this year, what's driven our costs down are better grade and also some strip ratio intact. But over the long-term it will wash out and our guidance forward in cash, so that's why we're not re-guiding on the cost side. We fairly want to break $600 this year and there is still upside. We're particularly pleased about the work at Loulo underground with those numbers because I would just remind you that when we took those undermining some of that cash costs move into capital. So you'd rather be careful there is a component, although we've shown significant savings on the price. It's been best thing we've done and we are working towards undermining in middle of next year and you'll see I'm sure, some cost improvements. So seeing anything very up or down. It should…

James Bell

Management

Okay, thanks. And then just around sort of jurisdiction at risk.

Mark Bristow

Management

You make out the values and the big supplies that is increased risk across Africa. It hasn't changed. It's being up to invest when we first arrived in Mali in 1991, I would argue that all our host countries had a much higher risk than they have today. And so not to underplay the DRC dynamics. This is a country that's had a milestone and its political evolution. The one thing is it slow the function of government would be all the time but makes decision because that's something, there is still [Technical Difficulty] don't and we haven't affected political section in the country. So we don't make it our businesses to position ourselves at all. We have a contract with the state. That's how we see us and that's the way we operate. The Ivory Coast which is dialing at the moment, it has its own set of challenges as it wrestles with its nation-building following the affected civil war. And so they are - and we saw in the beginning of the year how that's - can contaminate the private sector. And Mali is always - everyone asks me what's your most risky destination? I would say Mali because just the country in the world but many challenges but it's a greatest place to work. It's got great people. They are very engaging, very commercial. And our biggest assets are they are close to lot of attention. So I don't - we don't sort of wake up. It's an ebb and flow. I think as the chairman pointed that we are - the whole popular politics because that's what drives it, led by the biggest economy in the world. Everyone looks at Africa and sort of points like a [indiscernible] behavior. And I think sometimes you should turn the finger. We've seen some spectacular popular politics that's completely unsustainable across the globe. And there is less and less focus on Africa and less and less funding available for Africa. There is a whole question around the United Nations and what it does and its protection and African government is not affected. So we are mindful of that and we recognized in our scenario planning which is a core part of our business management that the big drivers in being able to manage public companies in emerging markets over the next five year horizon are going to be politics and social media maybe and the world economy generally, that's the goalpost. So we see a narrow goalpost for quite a while. We're definitely seeing a strong flow for that goalpost but ultimately the shrinkage of the supply will drive the goalpost.

James Bell

Management

Thanks Mark.

Mark Bristow

Management

Thanks.

Luke Nelson

Management

Luke Nelson, JP Morgan. Just on Kibali, can you on the proportion of ore from underground the balance of the year and also you're expected exit run rate from all holes from underground by year end?

Mark Bristow

Management

So I don't have exact numbers. So we expect - let me check. Kibali. So we're remind as I showed you in the slide for the underground drilling and mining [Technical Difficulty] sort of 430,000 tons in the quarter three and that goes up to 800,000 tons in quarter four. And you can bank on that with next quarter between about between 1.7 million and 1.8 million tons, so you need the balance. And our grades for cost going to be around [indiscernible]. And next quarter we're looking, as I said at about 800,000 tons. And that's where the risk and opportunity lies is the last two months of the year because we've got the scopes. We've got the drilled. We are happy we'll get it drilled and would be ready. It's just can you get it all off the line [Technical Difficulty] grade, the fee tonnage we brought down in our guidance to 1.65 million tons and the grade would be somewhere between around 4 million for the quarter. And that's all pre-cash, the ramp-up from underground which affects the grade because the open pit is fairly grade at sort of 2.5-ish.

Luke Nelson

Management

And just one further question on Loulo grades was obviously very strong. So just what should we be thinking of the grades into H2 and 2018?

Mark Bristow

Management

Well, that's sort of normal run rate. Grades most sort of 4.8, 4.9, so that's be closer. And that's really the underground. So Loulo's grade is still steady. That's where the conflict. So the real drop in that. The impact of that is the lower grade feeds from Gounkoto because we built the stockpile and we've got lower grade stockpile, we'll blend that staying into the field and that's what drops the growth in the back half of this year as we prepare for the push.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Hi. My name is [indiscernible]. My question is if you could see surrounding the cash and very interesting. I mean looking at the financials, it does seem as the cash is becoming return to company and is there any way you can confirm how much of the cash is between in JV and whether or not of joint operations, how much the cash is in Mali or the offset and how quickly reach there?

Mark Bristow

Management

Very quickly. That's the way. Randgold is doing - so Randgold and that's throughout. This is not a postal stamp at post office. It's a real office and the treasure is there. And we don't make to have it in cash in countries. If the company is profitable and it pays back its capital and it's producing profits from Tongon, we pay our dividend and it gets the cash back into our balance sheet. And the way it works under the legislation is you're expected to - like in DRC expected to repatriate at least 40% of the overall revenues back into the country. They do that of course and the stages of development you do more than that and that goes to running at $300 an ounce to $400 an ounce. That's more than - that covers your cost, in-country cost. And so we do that in Ivory Coast. We still haven't settled it exactly the slips, in getting used to having to do that. Mali is slightly different in that repatriation. But again in Loulo-Gounkoto we feel we still make process into Loulo-Gounkoto alone. Sounds like as I say we paid out a big $100 million dividend this last year. And so we distributed and then there is notes at the bank. We put the money back to the shareholders including the host countries. And so no, we don't carry big balance sheets in country because if there is any money that is there to the state, we pay it out. So that's how we manage.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Hi Mark. This is [indiscernible]. Three questions. Firstly, just at the adjustments you've made to the lower pressuring from there, sitting in at the moment. Do you see any downside pressure on that cost? Is that pretty small?

Mark Bristow

Management

I mean it's a positive. What's happened is - that conveyor as the mine prepared plus big legs in it and what we've done is we [Technical Difficulty] take it out point and then add the length. And then we put in new crusher. So all that is makes it more efficient hoisting system.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And that's just tax and cost and nothing material [ph].

Mark Bristow

Management

It will improve the cost if anything. It will improve efficiencies. And what it does for us - and the key one is that is that it reduces the time that you take to clear the belt from the waste and all. So when you change over the belt, you haul waste and you clear it quickly otherwise - what was happening is that - and definitely we had bins on the transferring playing and then you end up with a top line of material that you have to clear before you can transition to the other material. So it's made the whole underground more efficient.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. Thank you. And my second one is just on Kibali. How confident are you practice so far challenges in [indiscernible].

Mark Bristow

Management

Well, look at the numbers. They are 86, we would last year, 84 still upside now. Remember this is not just - once we go dominantly underground, we know that ore-body is much friendly as for cost instance. So we are comfortable with process before. The key thing about the sulfide is managing the true, so we've got - right now we've got - if you got 100% sulfide, you manage to single crushing circuit and then into the two most. And if that's managing that you change the basically, you change the whole management of the circular because now you've got fresh ore and you'd have, let's say, so less different densities. The whole material handling across the plant is very different and we've gone still the correct equipment to manage that and we've got a lot better at it and we're still managing those complex ores that management can finally use this as an excuse to explain the situation in when we said that last quarter operational issues. So anyone else looks at the process, there is really and I'm pretty sure with success.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks.

Amos Fletcher

Management

Hi. It's Amos Fletcher from Barclays. I just wanted to ask couple of questions. Firstly on Tongon. You were probably still relatively low growth going on the invested part of the CapEx over the last couple of years in the middle surface and particularly, what sort of recovery should we expect as we move forward?

Mark Bristow

Management

So I think we're there. We're there and thereabouts. Again 86 is the upper end of that recovery, where the grades have been lower and the one portion of the southern pit more and that's the big issue. We still haven't upgraded our oxygen plants, which is a definitely impacted recovery and that's something that we presume at the moment and still because the oxygen because resolved oxygen in the process in Tongon is key to recovery. But I'm pretty sure we'll continue to improve. We are comfortable of getting to that - the big projects for me is the 4.5 million ton throughput and we're sitting at about 4.4 at the moment. And we've got understand that on the final delivery of that and I'm pretty comfortable that we have excellent view on this because once you get that you get the run rate. As soon as the run rate starts lifting up, you have long run times, seven days. You get the recoveries up. So this is complex process. Every time you have to stop the process in plant because of for float circuit [ph] and you impact the recoveries over time. So fundamentally I think where they are at design.

Amos Fletcher

Management

And then I was just going to quick follow-up on Kibali, just with respect to the risk around the ramp up in the fourth quarter. Do you think you've developed this ore on view issues around on the balance?

Mark Bristow

Management

Mining, engineering and project narratives, filtering and controls and lot of that. So that's the ingredient. It's about every day we have a meeting every morning and it's about those shortages and controls. This is a big project. Randgold doesn't go fast into those targets. And then I have - and it's a stressful time. I get these emails from senior executives saying sort of messaging. And I say - I don't read those message all of a sudden we are scheduled and you are critical both and your plans to deliver on your plan. And that's the way it is. So there is lots of - there is some upside. And I think we've planned this down to - we just hold between the declines and the shaft development, so that was the key component. We've got two critical parts raise those. That's been a challenge. With rain pouring every now and then, you get some of these stuck in the hole. Just being to one of those. The two critical past we've managed on fact. So we got some flexibility in scheduling around the infrastructure to make sure everything comes up at the same time. The critical point, as I pointed out in my presentation, is there is a period where you wait for the paving to hear and you can't really do much. You have to have it done by this.

Amos Fletcher

Management

Thanks.

Mark Bristow

Management

Okay. We have exhausted. The first things we have, as is customary, and the teams here and we've got couple of our corporate guys sitting at the back row there and I will be hanging around and Graham of course now loud and Chris will talk to you and continue the conversation. Thanks for actually attending.