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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 6, 2014

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Transcript

Pascal Soriot

Management

All right, let’s get started. Good afternoon everyone. And welcome to our Full-Year 2013 Results Presentation. It’s really nice that so many of you could actually make it today despite the tube strike. As you can see, I’m actually joined today on the platform by Marc Dunoyer, for his first quarterly results as our new Chief Financial Officer. Welcome to you Marc. Marc will take us through the business performance, the 2013 financials. And then spread out how we will guide for 2014. You’ll also hear from Briggs Morrison, and many of you know Briggs already. Briggs is our Executive Vice President for Global Development and our Chief Medical Officer. Briggs and his team will become more and more familiar to you I’m sure over the coming years as attention shifts to our growing pipeline. And it’s a pipeline that is balanced with small and large molecules. But also primary care and specialty care products. So believe we have a well balanced portfolio of products. To help you keep track with our rapidly maturing pipeline, what we decided to do is that on moving forward, we’ll provide you with an updated pipeline table every quarter, not just twice a year. And maybe one more thing to point out before we get started, we’ve actually listened to your feedback and we’ll try our best to get through the presentation today as quickly as we can so that we can address your questions and wrap up decision in less than 90 minutes that we usually dedicate to this meeting. So, if I had to choose to one word, actually to describe 2013 I would use momentum because I think we’ve made good progress and we are on a good momentum. Some of you have heard me say at last month’s JPM Conference…

Marc Dunoyer

Management

Good afternoon everyone. Today is my first result presentation as a CFO of AstraZeneca. It’s a great honor and a pleasure for me to be here. Today I would like to focus you on the key priorities that’s, in our business. Our main strategic priorities are to achieve scientific leadership and return to growth. With this in mind, we need to invest in our improved pipeline and also support our commercial growth platforms. As a CFO, I will focus our business on cash flow to sustainability to service our shareholders’ distribution commitments and maintain a healthy balance sheet. Today, I will review the numbers for the fourth quarter and the full year as well discussing the key drivers of operating profit and margin. I will also update you of our announced productivity program, the stability of our cash generation as well as our decisions on shareholder distributions. Finally, I will close with effort on guidance for 2014. The revenue line for the fourth quarter is declining by 4% at constant exchange rate, is a 2% negative impacts of ForEx. Compared to September, year-to-date 2013 the rate of decline has been decelerating. I don’t intend to go into any detail on the fourth quarter accounts, as it’s very similar to the full year. Core EPS was $1.23 in line with expectations and declining at minus 25% at constant exchange rate. Pascal covered the overview of the full-year performance in his opening remarks. The impact of ForEx on the full-year revenues is negative 2% leading to a sales decline of 6% at CER. The core EPS was $5.05, the currency headwinds lowered our core EPS by $0.17 in 2013. I will now turn to the P&L for the full year and focus on core margins and profits. The press release contains the…

Briggs Morrison

Management

Thanks very much, Marc. It’s really a pleasure to be here today to share with you our R&D progress for 2013. Now little bit of our aspirations for what we’re going to do in 2014 and a bit in ‘15 and ‘16. I think it’s fair to say that ‘13 was a very important year for AstraZeneca’s R&D organization as we continue on our journey to be recognized scientific leaders in the therapeutic areas in which we operate. In 2013, while continuing to invest in our discovery and early portfolio, we’ve also rebuilt our Phase 3 portfolio through a combination of progressing our own molecules and supplemented that with some business development. So, I showed you this slide when we met together in March. And what I said at the time was that we anticipated between 5 to 7 new molecular entities were progressed into Phase 3 over the ‘13, ‘14 time period. I’m pleased to report that we are clearly on track for this goal, in fact we believe we will be at the top-end if not higher in terms of the number of new molecular entities that progress into Phase 3 over the ‘13, ‘14 time period. In ‘13, there were four molecules that we hoped would progress into Phase 3, all four molecules are now in Phase 3 and Phase 3 trials have begun. If we look at the cohort that I showed you in 2014, not surprisingly there have been changes to these molecules because they were in Phase 2 and that cohort has evolved. So the first thing to note is that 6765 has been terminated, we’re not going to be progressing that one, someone is bringing me a new clicker. Thank you. And a number of molecules that we had hoped would get into…

Pascal Soriot

Management

Thanks, Briggs. So, we’ll now open the floor to questions. Just because the AstraZeneca R&D team is so excited about the pipeline and they all want to talk to you about it. We, on top of Briggs today, we have Mene Pangalos, who heads our Easy IMiD Research and Early Development Organization and on the alternative front we have Bahija Jallal, who leads MedImmune engages work together with Ed Bradley, some of you may know Ed is in-charge of our immuno-oncology pipeline. And we also have here with us today in the room, Ruud Dobber, who is the Regional Vice President for Europe. And also he’s kindly accepted to be the acting head of our global products project. So, with that I’ll now open the floor to questions. Who wants, Alex Hauber, you want to go ahead. Alexandra Hauber – UBS: Alexandra Hauber from UBS. I just have this two non-pipeline questions and then I go into the pipeline. Just looking at your sales guidance for this year, the declining sales of low single digits, I would assume that the consolidation of diabetes broadly cancels out the maximum impact. So that means the rest of the portfolio should still be down 3% to 4%. Would you just roughly tell us what, so that the key moving parts in that thing, in that Nexium-X diabetes portfolios are that are declining? Secondly, the 2017 outlook implies you have a gap of $7 billion to fill from Nexium, Symbicort and Crestor roughly. I would assume diabetes applies that’s about $3 billion to $4 billion including obviously the impact from consolidation. Now, in diabetes you just have tools to play. So, can you just give us roughly in that a, is it sort of $3 billion to $4 billion incremental from the diabetes roughly to ballpark or is it much larger thing coming from the pipeline? And then within guidance, is really what’s going to be the key growth driver here? And then finally, moving to the pipeline, on your base inhibitor, a number of competitive molecules you’ve had safety issues. How many patient exposure actually have you had to know that this company is reasonably safe. And also if that is not the Phase 3, what are you going to do instead, a fairly large Phase 2 and in which confirmation?

Pascal Soriot

Management

Okay. So lots of great questions. So, let me, maybe Mene, you want to take the base inhibitor question in a minute. Let me just comment on the guidance. Starting with 2014 and Marc, do you have anything to add, please jump in. But the big moving part for 2014 there of course Nexium. We still have a little bit of effect of so quite with the big moving part is the Nexium management. You know there is a certain level of uncertainty around Nexium in terms of the timing of entry of the generic or generics depending on what’s in our place. And so, as we communicated the assumption we’ve used here is that we see the 1 January can’t treat at the end of May this year. That’s really the biggest moving part. Then, we also have very – sorry, Symbicort is going around the world but the assumption in our guidance was that we would have the impact of analogs in Europe, will they make it or not, we have to see. But certainly there is an impact from those in Europe whether it’s to tell you. As far as 2017, and of course diabetes will play all. As far as 2017, I can’t give you specific numbers as you would expect. The drivers of diabetes for sure Brilinta, Symbicort is we believe a driver. And again the emerging markets in Japan, there is no real great surprise there. I think what I can tell you is that as far as diabetes, the growth drivers that really are Bydureon and Forxiga and the combination of SGLT2 dapa and Onglyza. I think this fixed combination product is really going to be a very valuable, very important growth driver in the diabetes portfolio. So, we have great expectations for that fixed combo which has not everybody has. So certainly it will be an important product. Now, the 2017 guidance we gave that boasts we broadly now with 2015 realize on all of those growth drivers and some new product launches of course. But it’s essentially the platforms I’ve mentioned here. Mene, do you want to cover the base question?

Mene Pangalos

Management

Certainly. The first question is around the toxicity and the major toxicity that they’ve been seen in the base, which are driven primarily chemo-type, long QT prolongation and hyper-toxicity, which I think is actually specific to Lily’s molecule. So, we’ve tested our molecule extensively, pre-clinically, we have a very large margin – actually we have no evidence of any QT prolongation. And from hyper-toxicity perspective it’s absolutely clean. So I think our molecule and in terms of the a-beta lowering, even our molecule is lowering a-beta by about 70%, a very, very potent molecule, not similar to MERC’s molecule, actually this tends to Phase 3. And then the other molecule is around the ISO MERC, we believe is somewhere ahead of that as well. In terms of trial design, what we’re doing is integrated Phase 2, 3 trails. So we have interim looks the data that is registered, that could be registered would be a pivotal trial of successful. But we’ll take interim looks of which will likely kick-off a second Phase 3 program all depending on the data filed.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Sachin. Go ahead. Sachin Jain – Bank of America: Sachin Jain of Bank of America. I have two financials and then a couple of product questions please. Firstly on SG&A, you saw a 7% CER increase of full year ‘13. Could you give us any color on what level of increase we’re looking at for ‘14 particularly given the consolidation of the diabetes cost base. So, I’m guessing is that between $750 million to $900 million additional consolidation. And given that through December, I think you were commenting you expected SG&A to be flat as a percentage of sales. And does that statement still stand? The second question is, related to your comments that you’re moving away from the pre-R&D margin target longer term. Any color on margin progression out full year ‘17 relative to the flat sales outlook. And what cost flux you have at the sales of the lower year expectations as you see it? And then a couple of product questions, firstly on erythropoietin had press releases on renal toxicity and you still view that as significant asset. About that toxicity any color you can give? And secondly on 9291, I see it listed as a 16 filing. Any comments on breakthrough status and faster market strategies? And then the last one is on tremelimumab. And I understand you got a head tested versus the large late this year. Just any color on why you believe you can show your superiority versus larger, and some color from the Phase 2 data given that nobody else ran those studies initially? Thanks.

Pascal Soriot

Management

So, quite a number of great questions too. Where do we start? You want to cover Briggs the question around renal toxicity, and also 9291 you can do. You would understand Sachin that as far as we do have first two market strategy, we can’t be very specific as to what they are for obvious reasons. But Briggs, go ahead.

Briggs Morrison

Management

We used to remain excited about the molecule that the study that read out was mono-therapy in patients who can’t tolerate (inaudible) inhibitors. So it’s a small, very refractory population of patients who clearly need therapies. And there with mono-therapy you did see some renal toxicity. In the Phase 2 trials, the combination where you add (inaudible) looked much less toxic to the kidney than the mono-therapy. So we’re not – we don’t think the monotherapy informs what we’re going to see from the safety profile from the combination. And we’ll get that data later this year. We can cover right through the pharmacology of why that is, but there is a scientific reason why we believe in only less and we did see less of it in the Phase 2. For 9291, we don’t really comment on our regulatory strategies but all I can say is we have met with regulators and we think to plan that we have of moving that rapidly through to potential registration in 2016 is something that is quite viable. And then the last one tremelimumab, the reason we went head-to-head Stellar, is that Stellar seems to be the emerging sort of best biologic in Stelara system. We in collaboration with Amgen felt that to really show that you have a significant advance in this area, you have to be able to show that you’re better than Stelara, you show that you’re better than TNF inhibitor we think it’s too low of a bar. If you look at Amgen’s Phase 2 data, it is quite impressive particularly when we look at the passive 100. And so we did some modeling of the data they had and the data Stelara had and the data that the Amgen had. And we have a reasonable degree of confidence that we’ll beat Stelara.

Pascal Soriot

Management

As far as this, it’s clear though that the combination data we’ll get this year are going to be very pivotal because if we see the same renew, some data are very aggressive and some don’t have a viable product. But as Briggs said, there is a good reason to believe the combination we would not see the same rate of the trans-events and the Phase 2 data confirmed this. Marc, do you want to cover maybe the financial questions, SG&A and R&D margin?

Marc Dunoyer

Management

I’m not going to give you any indication on the line-by-line R&D or SG&A and so on. But as explained in my talk that we continue to invest beyond of those platforms so this would be one factor. And the other is basically the mechanistic impact of the sales reduction. So, if you look at the margin, if you were keeping the same level of these product, it’s like increase in the SG&A cost on the year. But I won’t give you more position than this. What we’re going to look at is basically the operating expense as a whole, R&D, SG&A and other operating income. This would be a key metric we’re going to watch very carefully within our already program of expenses.

Pascal Soriot

Management

We have given estimates Sachin, but it’s still market and from the top-line and the core EPS. Maybe the one thing that they could add is for our guidance is which we have said is our commitment to the dividend, it safe and seven year dividend policy. And as you know the dividend policy includes a dividend and a dividend cover. And I think this a very important part of our strategy and our commitment to shareholders. And as many of you know we have certainly good reasons to support that and stick to this. So, with all these elements I’m sure you can model the cost evolution. The key here is we’re going to manage those expenses as a whole because of the changing nature of our portfolio specialty care, primary care means that they may be over time over the next three years. Changes in how we split SG&A and R&D expenses. As you know very well, when you have a specialty care business, you tend to spend more doing last cycle management, new indications and certainly less in SG&A. So, that makes this kind of change. So, we’ll then move maybe to one question of online, Andrew Baum from Citi. Do you want to go ahead? Andrew Baum – Citi: I have a question. You’re developing treme for mesothelioma medicine, pretty exciting although small Phase 1 data. Given the outlook for these second and third line patients, have you sought a breakthrough status for trememesothelioma and should we assume potential commercialization as early as 2015 given the ongoing Phase 3 and the survival times for these patients? Secondly, if you could comment what news flow on the immuno-oncology portfolio, we’re actually going to get at ASCO this year. And then finally I didn’t hear anything in relation to tremelimumab in ovarian cancer. Have you decided whether to file on the back of that Phase 3 data yet for ovarian? Thank you.

Pascal Soriot

Management

The Ranbaxy assumption and Symbicort Briggs, in Europe. As I mentioned during my presentation, the assumption that we have taken for the year 2014 is an introduction of the single-generic on May, at the end of May 2014. We are aware that there various scenario possible playing out during the course of the year. But we are constructed our plan and therefore provide you the guidance on our EPS based under the assumption. And you also ask us the question I think on Symbicort analog? Andrew Baum – Citi: That’s right.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Andrew? Andrew Baum – Citi: Yes, in terms of generics the timing…

Pascal Soriot

Management

We expect the introduction of Symbicort analog in the course of 2014.

Marc Dunoyer

Management

As you can imagine Andrew there are always moving parts in a budget or in a guidance some upsides and downsides. And certainly the biggest moving part is next year and the timing of – the timing of the generic countries. So you can, from what we tell you, you can model a variety of scenarios of course. And then Symbicort analog is also a scenario you can model. But with – you have to look at, that’s why we give you a range of forecast, you have upsides and downsides in the budget. Briggs, do you want to cover the…

Briggs Morrison

Management

Andrew, let me – I’ll take two of the questions and then we have Ed Bradley on the line, maybe he can tell you specifically about the news flow at ASCO. So, for tremelimumab we do have a randomized Phase 2 trial ongoing in mesothelioma. And as you say there has been publications on single-arm trials and of course we monitor the patients that are in our randomized trial. And there is an opportunity there for that to be a registration opportunity. We’re not projecting yet just when we think we might be able to file that we’re still sort of estimating sample sizes and what the treatment affect would need to be. So, I can’t give you a firm answer on when we think we’ll file that way. In terms of tremelimumab, you’ve seen the data from the MRC trial, what we’re doing is working very closely with the MRC investigators to sort of recapitulate the analysis to make sure that in our hands with the data they have we get the same answer they got essentially. Once that work is completed and so far as we’ve been doing that work it seems to be a very nice study, with a very nice data. We will see in parallel are discussing with regulators filing that both in the U.S. and Europe, if all goes well, that could happen this year. But we still need to dig through the data and make sure that we feel it of regulatory quality. I think maybe Ed should take that.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Yes, Ed, are you on the line? Do you want to cover up this portion about the news flow with tremelimumab to immunotherapy portfolio?

Ed Bradley

Management

(Inaudible).

Pascal Soriot

Management

Thanks, thanks very much. Should I, maybe there is another question online from Seamus Fernandez with Leerink. Seamus, do you want to go ahead and then we’ll return to the room. Seamus Fernandez – Leerink: Sure, thanks very much. So a quick question on just again, can you just clarify a little bit how we should be thinking about SG&A. It sounds like we should be thinking about SG&A being roughly flat and possibly increasing. And then I have a couple of questions on the pipeline. Ed, it was a little bit difficult to hear you on that update from the line. So, maybe if somebody in the room could maybe clarify what Ed was saying in that regard. But in terms of the potential updates that we might see on PDL1 and tremelimumab combination, it would just be helpful to know the timeframe within which we could see that. And also, Ed, if you could give us a little bit of color on your views as to the potential differentiation of your PDL1, specifically as it relates to the prospect of either, the anti-drug antibodies really not showing up and potentially having a better efficacy profile? Of course you really view the potential of this product as most enticing or exciting in combination with other therapies. And then a last question, the respiratory biologic portfolio, I know that’s something that nobody has really asked about at this point. But my understanding is that you have some potential data coming on tremelimumab at ATS. Possibly, that study, that product is in Phase 3. Also you had (inaudible), my understanding is that you are going to have some important Phase 2 data to make a decision on a go-forward basis. Just wondering if you can update us on both of those programs? Thanks a lot.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Briggs, that’s for you.

Briggs Morrison

Management

So, what Ed was saying about update is that the dose escalation of PDL1 as mono-therapy. The cohort expansion both in terms of safety and preliminary anti-tumor activity and some data on the PDL1 treme combination. In terms of the differentiation, I think it’s perhaps a little earlier at this point for our molecules to be able to say and some of the parameters you asked about in terms of anti-drug antibodies, of core efficacy or safety, that will evolve. But I do think we do see the potential of the molecule in combination as well as in mono-therapy. And again we’ll the oncology group will give us a full data on that ASCO. In terms of respiratory biologic, yes, (inaudible) are antibody against the EGFR receptor. It has started Phase 3 and you’ll see on the slide we tend to definitely think as long as the enrollment goes as planned we’d be able to file that in 2016. And the Phase 2 data will be at ATS. Tremelimumab Phase 2 data will also be at ATS and you’re correct that we are, it was on my list of things to potentially start Phase 3 this year. So, we’re going through that data and going through our internal assessment to decide if we want to move that into Phase 3.

Pascal Soriot

Management

And Ed, there was a question again on SG&A, I mean, just kind of repeat what we decided we would do is guide you on revenue and EPS and core EPS. And again, reconfirm because it’s really important, reconfirm our commitment to the dividend. And finally to manage the expenses as a total cooperating expense base. But not give specific numbers line by line. I think the one thing that I can probably say that we’ve said before is that Sachin had notified earlier, taking on both the diabetes alliance of course the other half of the alliance I mean is – it means taking on board revenue but also cost. And what we are doing is looking for synergies across the entire portfolio and entire sales force which we can manage now in a much more cost effective manner not only in the U.S. but elsewhere around the world. So, certainly we are hoping to generate cost savings out of this better sales force management. Shall we return to the room? James Gordon – JPMorgan: Thank you, James Gordon from JPMorgan. And I have a couple of financial questions, one product one pipeline question. On the financial I understand you don’t want to give exactly line by line numbers. What can you say beyond 2014 just in sense of general trends where R&D spend could go because you talked about increased investment. Should we think of that as increased investment or an absolute basis? So that will be the first question. One other financial question was just about the tax rate was bit low this quarter, what the tax rate might do beyond Q4 and then for 2014? In terms of product questions, I was looking at the filings and there wasn’t anything for criteria monthly and that’s out 2016, so can you give us an update on where we are criteria monthly and when could that essentially file to let us work? And then just, one pipeline question, on the place, can you – have you seen any increased instance of patients falling over, I think that was an issue for some of the base inhibitors?

Pascal Soriot

Management

Okay, thanks James. Should we start with the last one maybe, Mene the base question.

Mene Pangalos

Management

No.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Okay, good. But you’re on, maybe Briggs, you can cover this in a minute and Marc, you could cover the tax rate if it’s okay. One thing that as far as expenses I think one thing we could also have said as it relates to the period of 2014 – ‘17 is you have to think about our portfolio as 2014 is really sort of a long/short. We’re investing a lot in the BT, we’re investing a lot still in Brilinta. We’re boosting the growth of Symbicort around the world, in the U.S., China, everywhere. And we’re also boosting our roles in the emerging markets. So, it’s really a kind of heavy investment here in many ways to boost our growth. And I think as you look at from there onward, you have to think of, we have a relatively substantial expense base that we can manage over time. So we should not always think that this is going to be in an investment mode forever. That’s also I think too important to keep in mind. Mind you, Marc, do you want to cover the…

Marc Dunoyer

Management

I would caution you not to use the data from the fourth quarter and trying to extrapolate then going forward. I would rather recommend that you look at the guidance we have provided about a year ago on the overall tax rate for the year 2013. And going forward is the tax rate should be broadly in-line or it should be no matching or change with what we have provided to you one year ago. But do not use quarter-by-quarter because as you may have noticed there was a distortion due to the I mean, an impairment on the fourth quarter.

Pascal Soriot

Management

To talk about the tax rate and financials, so quarter by quarter this really have to interpret. Briggs, do you want to cover the Bydureon question sorry.

Briggs Morrison

Management

Obviously the Bydureon franchise starts with the door chamber pen which has been filed. You saw on the slide that next year we anticipate filing the auto-injector. And then we’re still working on the monthly to make sure that the formulation actually works. So, we don’t have it, I can’t give you a firm data when we think that’s going to get filed. Gail Porter – Goldman Sachs: Good afternoon. It’s Gail Porter from Goldman Sachs and I have four questions please, two for Marc, one for Pascal and then a product question please. Marc, I found it very curious that all of your commentary was about focus on the cash-flow from an internal management perspective and yet when I look out over the next five years, the discrepancy between your cash flow and core earnings just keeps on increasing. So can you help us think about why that’s the case? Secondly, if as you look at the guidance for the tax rate going forward you said not to expect meaningful change. I think at the start of the year, the guidance was still about 23% you come in at 21%. Was there anything exceptional about 2013 that wouldn’t repeat in 2014 from a full-year perspective? From a product perspective, Pascal you highlighted in March that Brilinta was one of the areas where you thought there was upside relative to consensus expectations going into ‘17, ‘18. Given what we have seen year-to-date do you still see that as the case. And if so, what will it take for you to achieve that? And then lastly, as I look at your R&D budget, and if I look at company’s war playing the immunotherapy space, so Roche, Mug, both have an R&D budget that is roughly twice your R&D budget, Bristol is broadly similar but the concentration on immunotherapy is quite high. So, given your R&D budget how should we think about the choices you will make between your metabolic portfolio, your respiratory portfolio and your immunotherapy portfolio or are we missing something that you’re doing completely differently from the rest of the industry?

Pascal Soriot

Management

Let me start maybe with the last question, Marc you want to think about the guidance facts and the cash flow questions. First of all Brilinta, I still believe that there is upside to this product versus where it is forecasted. And one question you ask here is really what needs to happen, and what needs to happen is we need to see an acceleration in the U.S. very simple, because in Europe and in variety of countries around the world we are doing very well. I think first of all, we always need to ground ourselves in the fact that we only have an indication for 20% of the volume. And I think it’s really important because gone are the days when like 10 years ago, physicians were kind of allowed to do what they wanted and prescribe products even in indications that were not approved today. Of course as a company we focused on the indication we have approval for but even the physicians can’t really have much flexibility because it’s only reimbursed for certain indication. So that’s what we have access to and it’s kind of limited that’s important. But in Europe we are doing very well and in some countries we are leader, Brilinta has leadership position in terms of discharge patients after ICS and so I think here we show the potential of this product and it’s doing very well. The other thing you have to keep in mind is this – the imagery uses this pool of prescriptions. And that is made of patients who have been on the tried on all the products for a long, long time. And so the total prescription pool is very large. But you only have a small number of new prescriptions and with the product like Brilinta,…

Marc Dunoyer

Management

Let’s talk about the tax rate and then I’ll say a few words about the cash flow. So first of all the tax rate that you are referring to, 23% was a guidance we provided last year on the reported tax rate. And it finished, the year finished at 21.3% because of some settlement when one-side other than the other side. So, 21.3% versus 23% I mean, this is basically $50 million or $60 million difference. This is basically the position or the accuracy or forecasting in terms of settlements and tax settlements. So, for 2014, we believe there will be no material change in the reported tax rate but of course with the same caveat on the accuracy of our projection on tax settlements. We see no major trends of change of the corporate tax rate. So again it depends on how we finalize our negotiations with those tax authorities around the world. Turning to cash flow, if you remember the slide I presented on the cash generation, in 2013, we have a net cash flow from operations of $7.4 billion. If you just do a simple ratio of this cash flow on sales, this is close to 30%, it’s very high cash flow on sales, higher than many other companies. And if you also look at the cash conversion cycle, we also – the company has produced very good results. So, we are not providing you any projections or guidance on the cash flow. But to just point on the results of 2013, these are two very strong measures in terms of cash flow. Amy Walker – Morgan Stanley: Thank you. It’s Amy Walker with Morgan Stanley. I have three questions if I may please. The first one, I know you don’t want to guide line by line, but just around the gross margin evolution, that was weaker than we had expected in the fourth quarter. And presumably next year’s gross margin should be high and it’s going with patents, so that would have negative implications. Should we therefore expect gross margins to decline in 2014 in this direction as consensus seems to be looking for flat evolution at the moment? The second question on respiratory Symbicort in the U.S. did some great growth in the fourth quarter. I think you mentioned something about a 4% share gains. So, that would imply that you took some good pricing in the U.S. perhaps, can you just talk about what’s driving that and how you expect that to evolve going forward? And the last question, Pascal, forgive me if I’m misquoting you here. But I think when I asked you at Q3 about the potential impact of the DOJ investigation on your ramp in the U.S. for Brilinta, you said you didn’t expect limitation. Has anything changed and do you have any visibility on when all this might be concluded? Thanks very much.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Yes, as for DOJ investigation, of course we can’t predict this, it’s out of our hands. The only thing we can do positive, that we can influence is how quickly we answer the questions that are asked of us. And here, as you can imagine, we answered the questions as quickly as we could. We’ve provided all the data that we are asked. We understand that we’ve answered the questions so far and they need to process the information and come to a conclusion. And they may come back to us. But so far the investigation seems to be going as positively as possible. The problem is we don’t know – basically we don’t influence the decision making process of course. And we don’t influence the timing of it. So, they need with, a lot of the DOJ to the importance of this medicine to patients because the more confusion you create. The less likely patients are to take a medicine that says it’s pretty simple, when changing payers like Nice and EQUIG and others reimburse a product like this basically because they’ve been convinced for their clinical value. So, as for clinical value you want to make sure patients get the drug. So everyone is aware of this, but beyond this there is not much we can do but wait until they have come. As far as respiratory, what I think I mentioned – what I know I mentioned earlier is that we gained 7 points of market share. So that has nothing to do with our pricing because I was actually talking about our prescription share. So I don’t know if I understood your question very well here. But I was talking about this prescription share, new prescription share. And that’s the goals we saw. And of course that again takes time in translating into total prescription share because it’s only new patients. But it’s a very substantial lift in our new prescription share that we’re over time lead to increased shares and sales and in fact we grew by 26% in the United States last year. Some of it is priced but not much, most of it is really show increase. And gross margin, again, we Marc, you want to comment on specific remark but again we don’t guide on specific line items but.

Marc Dunoyer

Management

Obviously the timing which Nexium generic, Nexium or Nexium generic will be doing the course of the year 2014 would influence the gross margins that one factor. The other factor that you need to take into account is integration of the diabetes 50% alliance with BMS, as we were looking the revenues, enhanced revenues directly on the gross margin. Now we are going to bring it, I would say normally from sales gross margin and so on and so on. So this is also a slight mechanistic impact on the gross margin. Kerry Holford – Credit Suisse: Kerry Holford from Credit Suisse, three questions please. Firstly, a product related question and it goes back to Symbicort. You’ve had a fabulous increase in market share. Glaxo pointed yesterday to the fact that a number of formulary elements, one big formulary picked in 1 February. And that reversed some of the formulary elements so that the loss of adverse and the growth of Symbicord should reverse. So just from your perspective have any major formulary changes kicking in, in February that would at least reverse some of that? And I wonder if you could also while talking about that just generally comment on the sort of gross to net and rebate pressures in the U.S. whether you had to give significantly higher rebates, this was something you specifically decided to do to get both Symbicort and also to get Byetta by JV. I guess it wasn’t you that necessarily made that decision, it was still in the JV. Now you all are going to have to live with whatever price that JV put. But on the formulary aspect, you could perhaps also tell us a little bit about your initial expectations for Forxiga, you’ve talked about the challenging formulary environment in Europe. And we will no doubt be looking at prescriptions. Do you think we should look for the same sort of rate of growth for Forxiga as we saw for Invacana (ph) which, can you give us some health on your initial expectations? My other question would be about 2017. Your IR department does a fabulous job of colleting every excruciating number we could ever think of. So, you have a very good view of what we are forecasting out there. And you know that the aggregate numbers aren’t anywhere near your expectations for 2017. So, I wonder if you could tell us where you think collectively were missing it. Is it, we have a forecast business as you haven’t yet bought or we really haven’t understood emerging markets or we just haven’t got the patents right. And really you’re going to be able to keep some of your older products going into much longer. So, just give us some health in generality there please?

Pascal Soriot

Management

All right, thanks Kerry. I thought you were going to ask another question, but probably you kept that trying to be. Traditionally I can’t take questions. So, the formulary is, apart from the ESI from the ESI change I’m not aware of any material change, I mean, all the – I don’t know if you’ve had missing on your front. I’m not aware of any material, I mean, there are changes constant changes of course as you can imagine but not aware how many material change in formulary status in the U.S. that would effect Symbicort negatively on a material basis. The only one I’m aware of is ESI that there is of course an important one because it affects 20%, a bit less than 20% of commercial, so called commercialized in the U.S. marketplace. Now that sort of brings me to your second question which is the gross to net, how do you answer that? The first thing is that on an overall basis across the portfolio, we have indeed seen increased rebates and the gross to net has been reducing. But it’s not new, it’s been happening over the last three years. It’s the addition of the U.S. marketplace. But it is not actually necessarily coming from Symbicort or Bydureon. This ESI listing, they don’t result from very substantial price reductions at all. The total gross to net reduction really is driven very much by cost of wealth. Of course as you can imagine, we’ve seen pretty substantial pressure there. I would say Bydureon or Symbicort, I will not see, I can’t report a very substantial increase in rebates and reduction in gross to net. Forxiga, maybe Ruud, you want to say a few words about Europe but in particular of Germany. And as far as the U.S., we certainly have very ambitious plans as you can imagine. But of course you also have to factor in that this we’ll answer the second product in the marketplace, we’re not the first SGLT2, we’re second. And there will be competition. But we certainly have very ambitious plans and very substantial focus on resources allocation behind this product. Beyond this I don’t know whether I can tell you a lot more. But in Europe, we can certainly comment on it in particular in Germany.

Ruud Dobber

Management

Yes, so this is in Germany is a little bit volatile. You all know that we launched the product early last year. And I would say highly successful launch, having the trajectory lining of Genovia moving extremely quickly. And then unfortunately the GVA decision came out with no additional benefits. So, currently we are in arbitration in order to secure a reimbursement price. The chance is we will see whether we are able to convince the arbitration board in Germany. So, as a result of the mismatch between our expectation and the expectation of the German authorities, we stop supplying the markets mid-December. The products displeases that we are in the process of launching ZGDR to the fix doors combination of dapagliflozin with metformin and thereby offering patients as well as physicians an alternative for those patients who are on the mono-components. We are enforcing in a couple of other European markets, U.K. the Nordics and the Netherlands where we have four reimbursements. And we are still working through the reimbursement situation in big other European countries like Italy and France. With the response of the physicians as well as the patients is very positive.

Pascal Soriot

Management

Right. Because nobody almost nobody gets an SGLT2 first line, they always – the patients always get metformin. So, when they get SGLT2 Forxiga, it’s on top of metformin. So having the fixed dose combination to launch, will enable us to shift – to move all those patients to the fixed combo and keep growing Forxiga in Germany. 2017, I think really is again hard to answer specifically. We see potential in diabetes, we see upside still in products like Brilinta, Symbicort, the emerging markets all of the above and some of our background products of course. But the guidance we gave doesn’t rely on us acquire the new business. This is organic growth coming out of our portfolio of existing and new products. Should I take maybe the last question from Tim Anderson in the front. Tim, do you want to go ahead. Tim Anderson – Sanford Bernstein: Melanoma and long. And then slide 44, you talk about filing timelines through 2016 with various products. Your PDL1 is not on there, so, I just want to confirm that the earliest you could file that would be something like 2017 or beyond or could it be filed earlier on the back of Phase 2 trial. This is not clear to me if you’re going from the Phase 1 programs are running now straight to Phase 3? Second question related to this is will any of those pivotal be using biomarker in rich patient populations. I haven’t yet heard ASCO articulate any use or reviews on biomarkers. And then the last question, a quick one, on the anti-product, I’m trying to understand your rationale for advancing the PD1 in the human development when you already have a PDL1 further along in development?

Pascal Soriot

Management

Thanks Tim, maybe Briggs you could share these questions with Ed. Those are important questions. Maybe just before you do that, let me just say that – the plans we share are best plan, and for an number of products we talked about 9297 a bit earlier. We also have a talented plans and looking at whether we can fast-track some of those activities. But what we’ll share with you is what we think is reasonable and higher likelihood of achieving so that we then from there we can model upside and downside to those plans. But it’s really high probability of success of the plans that we present.

Briggs Morrison

Management

You want Ed go first?

Pascal Soriot

Management

Yes, Ed, do you want to start maybe with – you could cover the PD1 question. Why do we have a PD1, why do we move it into the clinic when we have a PDL1. And you could also cover the biomarker question maybe if you wish?

Ed Bradley

Management

Yes. (Inaudible).

Pascal Soriot

Management

Yes, as for the science. I think it’s important to remember that our strategy as for as scientist is a combination based strategy. And we have reasons to believe that combination of PD1, PD1 is a possibility with all our combinations. And we as that we’re saying it’s going to be data driven. We’ll explore the variety of alternatives to find the best possible combination. And maybe Briggs, do you want to cover the 2014 sort of anti-tumor?

Briggs Morrison

Management

So, tumor I think it is fair to a path that it will be one of the tumor types that you described. And a final timeline as Pascal said in part would be driven by data. So obviously there are faster routes to approval or filing an approval with certain levels of activity and then they’re the longer ones. So, what we’ll give you as our base case is sort of the little longer one assuming that what we’ve seen from our competitors makes it a little harder to go on to some of those faster timelines. But again it will be data driven. Tim Anderson – Sanford Bernstein: Good. Thank you so much.