Earnings Labs

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Apr 26, 2013

$189.18

+1.97%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.87%

1 Week

+0.93%

1 Month

+1.42%

vs S&P

-2.99%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to AstraZeneca's First Quarter Results Analyst Conference. Before I hand over to Simon Lowth, I'd like to read the Safe Harbor statement. The Company appends to these slides the Safe Harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Participants on this call may make forward-looking statements with respect to operations and financial performance of AstraZeneca. Although we believe our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, by their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and may be influenced by factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements made on this call reflect the knowledge and information available at the time of this call. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. I will now hand you over to Simon Lowth.

Simon Lowth

Management

Well, thank you operator and good afternoon to everybody on the call. Let me start with a couple of things. Firstly, to tell you that all of you that I've contracted some sort of cold over the last couple of days, so I’ll take occasional pauses as we go through this call to take a glass of water, so hope you’ll forgive me for that. But as we move then into the call, let me just start by saying that we posted a set of slides on the investor page of our website and they'll follow along with my presentation. And what I'll try to do as we go through is cue the slide numbers as we go along so that you can follow. So turning to the first content slide, which is slide number 4 in the pack, it's been a few short weeks since our Investor day on 21 of March and at that meeting Pascal and the AZ management team laid a clear articulation of our strategic priorities. Firstly to achieve scientific leadership, second to return on company to growth and third, and importantly to be a great place to work for AZ people. And I'd say that the energy of the entire organization is focused behind undertaking the important task of executing on these priorities. And over the last few months in the run up to and of course following that meeting, which made good progress, our drive towards scientific leadership has been enhanced by four important business development agreements. So with Moderna therapeutics, the Karolinska Institute, AlphaCore Pharma and then BIND Therapeutics, all of which put us at the cutting edge of the important new technologies that will bring important new medicines to patients. Our five growth platforms, so that's Brilinta, the diabetes franchise, emerging…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) thank you.

Simon Lowth

Management

Thank you operator, now I see Tim Anderson of Sanford Bernstein. Tim, over to you first question. Tim Anderson – Sanford Bernstein: Well, thank you very much, couple of questions, if I can, on Crestor previously the Company said that they expect the product to hold up pretty well through generic Lipitor in the U.S. In Q1 as you pointed out, prescriptions were down 7% year-on-year. And I'm wondering if you can talk about what you expect with this product in the U.S. Going forward to its patent expiration in 2016 do you think the decline in prescriptions in the U.S. specifically could continue to accelerate?. And then another question, which is, are you willing to say yet, is Astra willing to say when they think the trough year will be in terms of revenues or earnings?

Simon Lowth

Management

Tim, thanks very much for those two questions. On Crestor, we continue to believe that Crestor has a very clear positioning in the statin market for higher-risk patients and we continue to see the brand perform well. The impact in terms of first quarter performance was particularly associated with changes in managed care and formulary position but Ed Seage, would you like to pick up and talk a bit more about what we saw in the first quarter and how we see the brand moving forward and then I will pickup Tim’s second question.

Ed Seage

Management

Sure. It’s really not a function of actually losing positions in managed care. It's the function of plan years rolling over, patients enrolling in new coverage schemes, we typically see at the beginning of every year an uptick in the number of switches away from Crestor to generic products and that’s exactly the same pattern we saw this quarter, where you see net switches from Crestor increased and we’ve already seen and again like we’ve typically seen a recovery in that net switch rate, as we exited the quarter. So it's a fairly typical, what I would call almost a seasonal effect, or you see when a rollover of plan years we see an uptick in switches to generic which then kind of unwinds over the course of the quarter.

Simon Lowth

Management

Yeah, and I think Tim, we have seen as we watch obviously the scripts pretty closely and I think as Ed was saying we’ve seen a trend back once we moved through those changes in formulary positions. I would also say that when we look at the prescribing base of Crestor it remains and some mid 90s people who are continuing on with that Crestor therapy, we see very clear positioning of the brands for high risk patients we see with real resilience in the higher dosage, but it’s fair to say where we do see pressure on the scripts volumes it tends to be in the lower dosages which is exactly what we do expected and I think then you are going to see that story continue out over the coming years, with some pressure in the first part of the year, but then continued resilience with Crestor patients going forward. The second question, sorry did you have a comment to make?

Ed Seage

Management

One other thought is, if you recall about around the mid year, last year, we started seeing a decline from our Medicaid segment business and that will annualize until mid year as well, that’s another factor in the early year performance to keep in mind.

Simon Lowth

Management

Yeah, thanks Ed. To your second question Tim on the trough year, I mean I think you will know the question that a number of people have asked us and we've been rather stubbornly resistant in giving that precise 12-month period. And our reason for that is we don’t want the organization, we don’t want us to do sort of focused on one particular 12-month slice. The shape of the revenue profile for the company is going to defined by the interplay of three factors, we see continued resilience and stability in sort of established product within our portfolio, particularly aided by good growth in emerging markets for some of those established brands. We know that loss of exclusivity will continue to impact the top-line with the most notable event still to come being Nexium in the U.S. and then Crestor in 16 and 17. So when we return to growth it’s going to be a function of success in driving our growth platform, they all grew in this first quarter, we are investing heavily behind them, but we don’t want to concentrate down on one particular 12-month window. I know you’d love us to give that Tim, but we just don’t think it’s right for us to be focused on that. We need to drive the business for success over the long-term. Tim Anderson – Sanford Bernstein: Thank you.

Simon Lowth

Management

No, Tim, thanks a lot. I’m going to move to the second question on the line here, which I think Peter Verdult from Morgan Stanley. Peter your questions. Peter Verdult – Morgan Stanley: Simon this is Peter, Morgan Stanley, just a few with over a number of companies recently this week on reporting that inventory levels across retail pharmacies and the distributor channels in the U.S. running on characteristically low levels. Just wondering whether that's been a factor for Astra and if so whether you can give some sort of the ballpark quantification? Can I just dig a bit, secondly can I just dig a bit more on the diabetes franchise? I mean, the landscape is well known, the formulary lost on Caremark is well known, but it does seem that the franchise versus the expectations quite soft. I just want to know what explicitly you're going to try to reaccelerate those trends and whether there's any update as to when the SAVOR data will be released. And then lastly, just a very quick one. If the Phase III data for OSKIRA, the last few OSKIRA programs fostamatinib match the same sort of profile that we saw in OSKIRA-1 is it fair to say that Astra will not proceed to file that product for rheumatoid arthritis? Thanks.

Simon Lowth

Management

Okay, Peter, thanks for the questions. Sorry, let me perhaps deal with them in reverse order and perhaps ask Ed to comment on inventory levels. So, on OSKIRA, we're going to wait for the data from the remaining OSKIRA trials, I’m not going to speculate on the outcome of those and the, not that long before we’ll see the results and we can then access the medicine and the prospects in the lights of those. In terms of diabetes I think, this remains an absolutely critical growth platform for us, we, as an alliance with our strong portfolio. We and BMS are clearly very committed to the long-term success of the business. Onglyza and, indeed, exenatide continue to show decent year-on-year growth and we've seen a pretty encouraging start for Forxiga, but as you picked up Peter and indeed we have, that we have seen some headwinds to that growth I think you've all seen a slowing in DPP4 growth and, in part, that's got to do with the annualization of the slowdown and substitution out at other categories last year. We’ve seen intensifying competition and that's put share of voice under pressure in some markets particularly the U.S. And, as you yourself referred to, and I mentioned in my notes, we've seen a loss of some key formulary positions specifically came out. So those have been some headwinds, but we are taking a whole series of actions in order to ensure the long-term success for that business we’re stepping up sales and marketing investment behind the brands and remain committed to that. We’ve obviously putting increased investment behind Forxiga where it's approved and as I mentioned encouraging start to that brand in markets like German, of course we're getting stuck into the launch and promotion of exenatide in the Rest of the World markets from the April 1. SAVOR is going to be an important catalyst I think (inaudible) Q2, I think is when we'd expect SAVOR, no new news on that for you at Q2. We got the certificate filing in the U.S. around the mid year and then of course the dual-chamber pen for exenatide for Bydureon in Q3 for the U.S and in Q4 for Europe. So, a lots of activity in investments really behind the portfolio and we look forward to seeing that continue to grow over the remainder of this year. In terms of inventories in the U.S. I mean, we obviously have distribution service agreements with the majority of our customers and that contains the amount of inventories and ranges and penalties either side, but Ed is there anything particular you want to add, that we've seen.

Ed Seage

Management

Yeah, there is nothing in aggregate that’s worth calling out if you’d say there is always to's and fro’s at the brand level again nothing really material, but in terms of directionally Nexium was probably slightly flattered by differences in the inventory movements between this quarter and a quarter year ago and Seroquel is probably penalized a bit, but that’s the only directional brand issues. I didn’t point out, Peter Verdult – Morgan Stanley: Yeah.

Ed Seage

Management

But nothing of a real dollar value that we think it would really worry about.

Simon Lowth

Management

Yeah, so Peter, I hope that that helps you in that one. Peter Verdult – Morgan Stanley: Thanks

Simon Lowth

Management

Let me move to Sachin at Bank of America. Sachin over to you. Sachin Jain – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: (inaudible) relates to U.S. managed care access versus Lilly. First just a follow Onglyza, how do we think about net points from here, given your comments that you intend to compete vigorously. Secondly, on Brilinta, Lilly in their release yesterday mentioned lower effective selling prices for Effient. Are you seeing any impact on Brilinta pricing or formulary positioning that we should be aware of and secondly, just to clarify a comment on Bydureon, where you refer to new-to-brand volumes being up 15%. Does that include or exclude Byetta switches any comments on the total franchise? And then finally, on Brilinta, on slide 9, where you point to an inflection in U.S. trends and any comments really feel that is enough to get to consensus sales are roughly $300 million this year and $500 million in next year? Thank you.

Simon Lowth

Management

Well, thanks very much indeed so let me pick up briefly on Brilinta, if you might want to pick up the Onglyza one on in terms of it sort of pricing in just check in of it on Brilinta we’ve seen good progress in terms of extending our managed care access with Brilinta. And that has come on the back of, I think, an increasing recognition of the progress we are making and getting the brand onto protocols onto formulary the continued study growth in prescriptions and that’s enabling us to expand managed care coverage for the brand and approved and that’s coming with consistent pricing that we’re not seeing back growth in managed care access coming at the expense of pricing. Onglyza are there any particular comment form the net pricing there?

Ed Seage

Management

Well, certainly wouldn’t make any forward-looking statements bout our pricing strategy but I can tell you that price was net positive in the quarter. Sachin Jain – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Yeah. Thanks,

Simon Lowth

Management

: And then finally you had question I think on slide 9 around the Brilinta trajectory and I got just, I think Sachin, reframed the comments that we made at our Investor Day which is as we now built preliminary access I think about 62% on our target hospitals, protocol up to almost 50, we’ve expanded managed care access, we think that it’s now the right time to further step up our promotional and scientific investments and laid out probably for about a 50% increase, but when we laid out many of the levers a few weeks ago and you’ll recall those more investment in the field more investments in the medical programs getting those practitioners out there and we continue to think that to the set change in terms of the acceleration of share while we are seeing some of that in the quarter we’re really looking to the back end of the year to see those investments which are ramping up in this quarter to start to payoff. So let’s come back to that I think in the for end of third quarter, fourth quarter. So, Sachin, thanks for the questions. We got Matthew Weston from Credit Suisse also waiting on the line. Matthew over to you. Matthew Weston – Credit Suisse: Thank you, very much. And three questions if I can, the first on bringing the phase four restructuring timing forward. Could you explain your reasoning for doing that, given that you only ran us through it in detail a couple of weeks ago, at the New York event? Is that because a number of headwinds accelerated? Or, fundamentally, why are you bringing that forward? Secondly, with respect to Pulmicort Respules generics in the U.S. can you just tell us whether or not generics were actually able to ship in the 24-hour period between the verdict and your injunction whether we will actually see a financial impact in 2Q or whether or not you were able to get your injunction in place, before any generic products was shipped? And the finally on net financials, the $93 million that was booked in Q1, you mention FX gains but you don’t break them out, is $93 million a good run rate for us to take for a quarterly for the rest of the year, or should we assume some difference is going forward.

Simon Lowth

Management

Okay, Matthew thanks for the question, firstly on the restructuring as you recall when we laid out the phase four restructuring program, we indicated that it comprised really four elements, the first element and if you take the 5,000 positions, the first element is about a 1000, where positions associated with the final stages of phase three, but we brought an interface for just so that we have one program that we could communicate against. And Matthew some of those, those actions were the underway, so it was an really an acceleration, it was just that, we are already in train. The second aspect was about [2,500] positions, were against further SG&A savings, reasonably proposition were related to sales force reductions in established markets with loss of exclusivity and I think I mentioned actually in on the Investor Day, that in markets like Germany and France, we have already initiated some of those actions. So not really an acceleration, just a program moving at Phase. And then the third area was the R&D footprint changes and that is the slightly longer-burn program that takes place over the course of the next two to three years. So that’s running very much to our schedule. So the scale of the charge taken this quarter reflects the residual in the phase three program, plus the sales and SG&A changes that were underway. And then also where we have got known changes with identified movement, we will take a provision against where there is very clear and known changes and where we have announced them, we will take the provisions, so that would be a provision taken which won’t translate into cash for sometime. So those are the factors which meant that a half of the 1.3 and (inaudible) expect for this year, being…

Simon Lowth

Management

Thanks. So, let me deal with the emerging market growth. So, we saw good growth in the first quarter, 9% or so. As I mentioned in my remarks a lot of that growth was driven by China where we saw strong growth at 21% and we’re now, our business in China is now back growing, faster than the since in the market. I also mentioned that while we seen some growth in the first quarter from one or two markets, such as Saudi, we'd, there is a growth there is lot of it, when you do your arithmetic you’ll see came net from China. But as we look forward for the remainder of the year we expect to see continued strong growth in China. And we’d expect to see a slightly more diverse contribution although, a contribution from a broader set of market. So, we feel pretty good about the emerging market prospects for the full year and expect to see a broader contribution. As you know we guided to high single-digit growth in emerging markets and that’s where we are in the first quarter and that sort of reminds our outlook. So, your second, your first question which was around Crestor and the settlement with Watson which permits them to enter the market earlier than the expiration date. And of course we get a royalty from Watson as we disclosed, I’m not able to work through the math for you, because it depends on Watson’s price and I’m not going to speculate on that at this stage, but I think you can make an assumption on that from the rest of the pieces are there for you in terms of calculating what that would look like, but the royalty is clearly an important net back for us. Steve, thanks for those questions. Brian, I’m over to you at Barclays. Brian Bourdot – Barclays Capital: Thanks very much, it’s Brian Bourdot from Barclays. It sounds like the two-question rule has gone, so I have four please. And first question on Onglyza, second on the Naloxegol, third on Symbicort and fourthly on the geographic definition changes. Firstly on Onglyza just wondering if you can give us the new-to-brand share that you captured in the first quarter, please. Second question on the Naloxegol, I see you still in talks with the FDA, I was just wondering if there is any update on the petition for scheduling that you submitted to DEA. Thirdly, on Symbicort, I was wondering if you could update us on the status of any generics being sold in any markets and your expectations for generic entry in Europe and the U.S. And lastly thank you very much for the 14 pages of the restatements on geographic sales. I was just wondering does that reflect changes to the way that you operate as well or is this just simply an accounting thing. Thank you very much (inaudible) soon.

Simon Lowth

Management

Thank you very much for that, given your last comment I won't chastise you for the fact you promised you’d only give two questions. So, in terms of the, dealing with your final question the geographic change we have moved essentially what we used to frame as emerging Europe and grouped that into Europe. And that reflects a couple of things. Firstly, in the way that those markets have evolved over the last few years, they increasingly represent, or they increasingly resemble and have characteristics of some of the other European markets, rather than the emerging markets such as the China's and the Middle East and the Latin America’s of this world. So, the nature of competition, the nature of demand and their prospects start to look more like the Western European markets. And secondly, as I think you will recall from our Investor Day and, indeed, before we now have one senior commercial leader responsible for the European region looking after both western and the former Eastern Europe that’s Ruud Dobber. So that's there's a couple of reasons and we hope that will be helpful for you in laying out the restatement historically so you can track it going forward. Coming back to naloxegol, the discussions, I mean, with the FDA are ongoing and I am not able to update you on the status of the DA on the controlled substance component. Typically, that follows decisions from the FDA, so I wouldn't have expected enough to be able to give you an update at this time we'll keep you posted on that. In terms of Symbicort, we have not seen any new generic analogue activity in Europe or indeed in the U.S. as you know, we have patent protection on our devices running in out to 18, 19 and we know that there are some generic analogues that have sought approval, but we haven't had any new developments on that score in the last quarter. And indeed sorry, in the U.S. device I should have may have misled you there. I think the U.S. devices from memory, Karl, 20, 25, 26, so Europe 18, 19 and then U.S. 25, 26. So, we no update in terms of developments in approval and, certainly, not market entry of analogues, and we continue that to see those as markets well protected. You had another question on sorry, on Onglyza new-to-brand share. Ed, do you have that available?

Ed Seage

Management

Yeah, that was a precise number. It's a kind of table. I'm actually just rolling running a ruler across to an axis on a graph and it’s broadly, if you look at Komboglyze and Onglyza together our new to brand share is running around 16% give or take. Brian Bourdot – Barclays Capital: Okay. Thanks Ed.

Ed Seage

Management

Thank you

Simon Lowth

Management

So Brian thanks for your questions. I'll move to Mattias Haggblom in Danske. Mattias over to you. Mattias Häggblom – Danske Bank: Thanks. Mattias Häggblom from Danske Bank markets. I’d be interested to hear what you have seen in terms of the price component and developed Europe during the start of 2013, and how it compares with the same period last year is it same, worse, or is it do you think. And secondly, in light of the strong gross margin for the quarter, historically you guided for gross margins in excess of 80%, but in conjunction with the Capital Markets Day in New York when you reconfirmed your previous, pre-R&D margin range you did no longer explicitly say anything about future gross margins. So was there some thought behind that as you moved towards specialty care and large brands continue to lose exclusivity, or and 80% is no longer term, no longer realistic? Or is the previous guidance of excess of 80% on gross margin still a valid comment for the longer term?

Simon Lowth

Management

Well. Thanks very much for the two questions. So, firstly, in terms of European pricing action what we have seen and anticipate for this year is very consistent really with what we saw last year and you remember that such historically we had seen government price interventions in the low to mid single digits in Europe and we’ve guided we have the last 18 months or so that we’ve seen that rising up to comfortably mid single digits. So rather than being in the 3% to 5% range more saw it in the by 6% range and that’s pretty much what we have seen and expect to see this year, so not a change relative last year and a continuing level, somewhat above historic levels reflecting the difficult economic circumstances in many of those markets. On the question around margins, we’ve guided to a core pre-R&D margin in the 48% to 52% range, as our business developed over the next years and moves more towards a higher proportion of specialty care there will be some movement between movement between price margin and SG&A, so I’m not going to guide beyond this year in terms of how those two different components will stack up. What we've guided to is the pre-R&D margin level, which is the level to which will be managing. So, thanks for your two questions. We have got another one from Nicolas Guyon with Exane. Nicolas Guyon – Exane BNP: Yes, good afternoon, thanks for taking my questions, actually I have two. The first one relates to the diabetes unit. So what do you expect from the increased FDA scrutiny regarding (inaudible). And the second one is a follow-up on DPP4 again. So we've seen that recent scripts slowed down recently for the entire class. So you mentioned formulary changes for Onglyza specifically, but do you have any idea, any sense as to why the entire class is down? Second question last one is a pipeline question regarding naloxegol. The recent (inaudible) just released at the DDW, showed an efficiency of 10% to 15% placebo adjusted. That is at the very low end of what competitors have achieved are you comfortable with the data? Thank you.

Simon Lowth

Management

So thanks for the questions. So just let me deal with the DPP4 class first of all, and we had seen some reduction in the class growth. And it’s still a fast growing market. I think from recollection, the class TRx growth was around about a 11% I think in the first quarter. But that does compare to the 26% in the prior period and we think that’s due to a couple of factors, we have seen additional TZD generics, in the second half of 2012. So the TZD market decline or stabilized and that slowdown that as a source of growth for DPP4. It's also fair to say that we’ve seen continued strong growth in GLP-1 class and that’s also taken some edge out of the DPP4 market rate of growth. And so those are probably the two main drivers. And so we continue to think it’s going to it remain a growing attracted market, perhaps not at the same rate we had seen. And I think in terms of the first question, I think this related to the recent review for the DPP4 and GLP-1 class and I don’t Karl, if you’ve give any comment to add on that. Pick that one up and then I’ll come back to the naloxegol question. Karl Hård: No, we are continuing to work with the FDA and the EMA in this area I mean there are no new findings here I mean the labels in this class have already contained, if you refer to the pancreatitis issue, that's a known effect, and FDA has just said they are looking into reason I know and we will continue to provide all the information there. It’s nothing specific of course to our products for all the other classes.

Simon Lowth

Management

Yeah, so new news on that it’s a known issue, we don’t see any new information, but we will wait to see how that review unfolds. Ed, question on naloxegol, I think in particular the views on the results from the various Codiac programs. Clearly, I guess it’s too early to call and we are in discussions with the FDA on that. And prejudge the outcome of regulatory discussions, but anything Ed you want to add on the specific number I guess.

Ed Seage

Management

Yeah, the question was looking at the response rates of comparing them cross trial to other competitors and I think I have been done an exhaust of a side by side analysis, but my understanding if this category one have to be pretty cautious about making cross trial comparisons because you got different durations of therapy in a lot of these trials and most importantly you’ve different primary end point definitions and lot of them. So it’s hard to make cross trial comparisons that one might be facile with making a blood pressure trial comparison where blood pressure lowering is blood pressure lowering.

Simon Lowth

Management

No I think (Inaudible) that is the key point that are very difficult in this to make those the cross-trial comparisons. Now, it’s one minute past one and we have our annual general meeting today, which I’m expected to attend and we’ve got a couple more questions here. So, what I’d probably like them in Seamus, if you each of you Seamus that Larry’s going to mark I’ve got (Inaudible) each got one question we’ll try and handle that and then close up, but I’ll need to move very swiftly to your questions if you got more I’m sure you can come back James and the IR team and they'll pick them up for. So Seamus any, one question if you got one I’ll try and deal with it on the call?

Ed Seage

Management

Sure, perfect. Thanks so much for taking the question, maybe just quickly you mentioned the SAVOR study multiple times and I know I’m not asking for kind of the scientific views on SAVOR, but really in the market research that you’ve done around SAVOR what are the key questions that SAVOR will answer to really drive or that can drive improved DPP-4 class growth or specifically growth of Onglyza Komboglyze. Thanks. Mattias Häggblom – Danske Bank: Thanks. Well thanks for that and I believe we are not in a position to sort of pre-judge the outcome of say this is a cardiovascular study and I mean in essentially set up for no harm effects, but James you want to pick up on any sort of what we’ve done around potential outcomes?

Ed Seage

Management

Yeah, I think first and foremost Seamus it’s addressing the, I mean the previous question in terms of safety designs and non-inferiority, it can remove a number of the questions which is still asking around the, being asked for the moment, so that will be a tick hopefully for the class a whole. And I think that can contribute the class growth. Secondly, clearly the mortality benefit if that is seen that could be a major diver both again class and reaccelerating the growth for the class. And obviously we believe we would be able to benefit in terms of having that data first and [advance] of that data for Onglyza specifically.

Simon Lowth

Management

We’ll probably, to don’t really in a position to pre-judge that. Clearly, something to come… Mattias Häggblom – Danske Bank: That’s hypothetical, is that data reposted, I mean, those would be the two most important things from a research point.

Simon Lowth

Management

(Inaudible), sorry if you got further questions, if you come to James and James and the team afterwards. And then finally if I can and I’m sorry I know that there is some further people waiting to put questions, Johann and Cristoph, but I’m going to say one last question from Mark, to Deutsche Bank and then with apologies ask if the rest of you could direct your questions to James and the team after the call. Thank you very much indeed. Mark over to you. Mattias Häggblom – Danske Bank: Thanks Simon, it’s just a quick question about business developments. Pascal said at the investor day that’s this is going to be a focus in upcoming months. So, far we’ve seen what our terms for relatively early to mid-stage R&D deals, is it likely that is what we will continue to see in the coming months. And also how much of that business development strategy is still to be determined by (inaudible) who I know is still not join the company just yet.

Simon Lowth

Management

Okay, well thanks. I mean, I think the broad parameter shape of our business development strategy we laid out in, at our investor day and the first, the focus is on strengthening the science base the pipeline and where we can the on market portfolio for our core, three core therapeutic areas, so cardiovascular, metabolic disease, respiratory and inflammation, and oncology. And that will be, those would be the therapy areas of focus we will continue to look across the discovery development commercialization chain for good opportunities. And you're absolutely right the four deals that we’ve done in the first part of this year have been earlier stage deals in particularly, actually, in cardiovascular, Oncology, I guess, there is sort of concentration of that activity. As we go forward we will continue to look for good opportunities in those three areas. I think as we all know later stage opportunities on-market opportunities, there are relatively few of them. They tend to be highly priced and therefore we need to be very selective about what we do there. But I do think that we will continue to be good earlier stage opportunities and there is an active at the momentum in terms of reviewing and the discussing potential opportunities as we’ve been for some considerable length of time. With Mark’s arrival when we joined us, I am very confident that the overall parameters of strategy won’t change, but I’m sure he will be able to bring a lot in terms of even more crisply defining the specific opportunities and priorities within each of the therapeutic areas and he'll be working with his team to do that, but then imagine a significant change in direction, but even more, I am sure momentum and focus behind that activity, which is a key part of our strategy. Mattias Häggblom – Danske Bank: Thank you.