Albert Benchimol
Analyst · Macquarie. Please go ahead
Thank you, James. As usual I'll provide a brief overview of market conditions and recent reinsurance in the world, before opening up the call to questions. Generally, we're observing size of the market that is increasing recognizing the insufficiency of its pricing. We're seeing either small increases, flat pricing or more moderate pricing reduction than we have in the recent past. Unfortunately, this is not yet consistent across the board. I'm particularly disappointed by ongoing price reductions in the phase of increasing loss trends in certain lines. Odyssey [ph] incumbent wisely reducing their exposures only to have new entrance jumping into fill the void at inadequate prices. The overall trend however is moving in the right direction, albeit more gradually than we would like. And our insurance book, the overall rate change was minus 1% in the quarter, which has slowed from the minus 2% in the fourth quarter of last year and the minus 3% seen in the first quarter of 2016. Larger accounts remain more competitive the smaller risk. Our U.S. property and casualty division achieved the price increase of 1% in the quarter, but there is still a lot of volatility around that. Property is down about 2%, while casualty is up about 4%. Both are better than last year's trends, but still not enough. For example, we believe challenging lines such as low attaching auto and heavy trucking should see meaningful increases, but there are still many offering reduced pricing in this difficult -- reduce pricing. In this difficult market place risk selection and underwriting discipline become the only differentiator between profits and losses. We have a long track record in the space and feel we are well equipped to navigate through the challengers. And now our international insurance division, overall rate change was minus 5% in the quarter, unchanged from the prior quarter and slightly better than minus 6% in the first quarter of last year. This is by far our most competitive market, but the pace of rate reductions has slowed in recent quarters. And there is a general feeling that in aviation, property and energy classes these must be approaching the bottom of the cycle. Onshore and offshore energy are the most challenging and we have non-renewed many risks that no longer represent value to AXIS. Global property rates were down about 3% for the quarter against the prior year rate change of minus 10%. We're starting to see signs of more discipline in the market with less pressure on rates. In our professional lines division, the overall rate was essentially flat in the quarter consistent with the first quarter of last year, but up from the minus 2% we saw in the fourth quarter. Primary and lower layers are generally renewing flat but with modest positive changes. While there continues to be pressure on AXIS layer. That's consistent with recent loss experience. [indiscernible] emission lines are generally doing better than D&O. Our approach to the insurance market is to leverage our underwriting expertise and service to increase deal flow and built better portfolios. We're focused on those markets, but we have the relevant, scale and higher level of confidence in our run way for profitable growth. We're highly encouraged by our progress to-date with both growth and improvements in core underwriting performance for our insurance business. Moving on to reinsurance, we've just completed the April 1 renewals. Premiums renewing on or around April 1 represent about 10% of our annual total renewable premiums. The main renewal markets of this date are the U.S. and Asia mostly Japan. In Japan, property excessive loss rate were down in the 5% to 7% range, a bit less than in previous renewals. The Japanese casualty market however is more constructive as it is responding to recent increases in market losses. XOL cat expose business elsewhere in the world saw reductions of up to 5%. Brokers continue to apply pressure on profit commissions and expanded coverages. Encouragingly however, the market is pushing back and we are seeing more programs renewing at expiring terms. In U.S. casualty, there is continued increase in reinsurance capacity with market newcomers stepping in to replace established players when they scale back participations. U.S. regional and multi-line continues to be competitive, but we are seeing some underlying primary or reinsurance rate growth on some accounts. In the wake of Ogden discount rate change in April, the April renewals for most XOL UK Motor contracts were postponed to May 1. The few reinsurance XOL trees that did renew went for rate increases of 20% to over 100%. Our expectation is that the business that we will write will be up 40% to 50% over expiring assuming no further changes to the Ogden in rates. Overall, in the April 1 renewals we shrink our reinsurance book by about 4% over expiring treaties. Looking forward to June 1 Florida renewals, we're seeing an increase of early placements and initial signs indicate pricing close to flat on a risk adjusted basis. In reinsurance there is no doubt that the market is at a low point not seen in many years. We remain confident however, at the long-term prospects for this business and our goal remains to be a top-10 global P&C reinsurer once conditions improve. We know we have the capabilities and attributes to be value added long-term partner for our cedings. Under current conditions however, we are architect to pursue growth in attractive new lines such as flood and mortgage insurance to do more for our customers, while prudently managing our exposures and earning a growing stream of attractive fee income from our strategic capital partnerships. To conclude, I'm hopeful that sanity will prevail and that we are approaching the floor. Where conditions are promising we will be proactive and pursue growth where risks are properly priced. In the alternative, we will not be afraid to stand back, but we remain firm that no matter that pace of market corrections we will continue to make progress on our franchise, platform, portfolio construction and risk lending. I'm confident that the factors that affected this quarter are temporary and our fundamental evolution continues. Thank you for your attention. And with that, we'll be happy to open the floor for questions.