Earnings Labs

American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 6, 2020

$132.11

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to American Water’s Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded and is also being webcast with an accompanying slide presentation through the company’s Investor Relations website. Following the earnings conference call, an audio archive of the call will be available through August 13, 2020. US callers may access the audio archives toll free by dialing 1877-344-7529. International callers may listen by dialing +1-412-317-0088. The access code for replay is 10146461. The audio webcast archive will be available for one year on American Water’s Investor Relations website at ir.amwater.com/events. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s call, Ed Vallejo, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Vallejo, you may begin.

Ed Vallejo

Management

Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us for today’s call. At the end of our prepared remarks, we will of course open the call for any of your questions. During this conference call, both in our prepared remarks and in answers to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements that represent our expectations regarding our future performance or other future events. Now these statements are predictions based upon our current expectations, estimates and assumptions. However, since these statements deal with future events, they are subject to numerous known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from the results indicated or implied by such statements. Additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties and factors as well as a more detailed analysis of our financials and other important information is provided in the earnings release and in our June 30, 2020, Form 10-Q, each as filed with the SEC. Reconciliations for non-GAAP financial information related to adjusted return on equity and our adjusted regulated O&M efficiency ratio can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix of the slide deck for this call. Also, the slide deck has been posted to our Investor Relations page on our website. All statements in this call related to earnings and earnings per share refer to diluted earnings and earnings per share. I should note that consistent with our efforts to ensure the safety and health of our team, we’re again conducting this call, while practicing social distancing and from remote locations. As an example, Walter and Susan remain in separate locations. If for any reason technical issues do arise, Walter will take over and lead us through the full presentation. And with that, I will now turn the call over to American Water’s President and CEO, Walter Lynch.

Walter Lynch

Management

Thanks Ed. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us. We have a lot to cover today and we thought it might be helpful to first address the impacts of COVID-19 on our operations and our estimates of the financial impact so far. As we've done since the onset of this health emergency, American Water continues to provide essential water and wastewater services to our customers and we know the critical role we play in helping our customers and communities through this pandemic. As we relayed on our first quarter call, we remain focused in three areas. The first is the care and safety of our employees and their families, the second is the safety of our customers and the communities we serve, and the third is the execution of our preparedness plans. We can continue to provide essential services and help our communities get through the pandemic. With recent surges of COVID-19 cases in many parts of our country, the measures we took early on remain in place while adding additional measures. These include employee health screenings prior to coming to work, social distancing, suspension of all non-emergency in-home appointments, limiting the amount and nature of contact with customers during field appointments and a required work-from-home policy for non-essential employees where possible. Because the number of cases varies across our footprint, we're taking into account CDC and local and state guidance as we work on plans to return to a more normal state of operation when possible with safety as the primary driver. As you know we were among the first utilities to suspend shutoffs and late fees prior to any orders being issued by states. We continue to work with customers who are experiencing financial hardships by offering customer assistance programs and access to low income programs. Susan will cover this in greater detail, but we're working constructively with public service commission’s as they look to address utility response measures, customer protections and cost recovery for regular utilities in their jurisdictions. Additionally, our liquidity and access to capital remained strong and we continue our disciplined approach to execute on our core strategies such as making needed capital investment. Finally, American Water and the American Water Charitable Foundation continue to help the communities the we serve giving more than $400,000 in charitable contributions over the past three months to help mitigate impacts of COVID-19 in the communities we serve. Before I ask Susan to discuss the financial impacts of COVID-19 so far, I want to thank our employees not only for their tremendous effort throughout the pandemic, but also of what they've done all year to stay safe and provide essential service to the communities we serve. Now, let me turn the call over to Susan.

Susan Hardwick

Management

Thanks Walter, and good morning, everyone. Slide 6 summarizes the estimated impact of the pandemic on results through June 30, 2020. We've seen an estimated 5% increase in residential customer volumetric demand over this period that we think is directly related to the impact of COVID-19 as many of our customers have been working from home and or sheltering in place because of the pandemic. Likewise, we have seen commercial and industrial demand weakened by about 13% and 7% respectively as our best estimate of the impact of COVID-19 over this period as many businesses have shuttered. And I'd simply remind you that we are about 70% residential on an annual revenue basis. As Walter mentioned, we discontinued service shutoffs that would normally occurred due to nonpayment and are no longer charging late fees. As a result, those revenue categories are also down. Also we have incurred some incremental operating costs to keep our employees and customers safe and have seen some increase in uncollectable accounts expense. The total estimated impact of the last demand, force of the last demand, foregone revenue and increased costs is estimated at about $21 million, which equates to about $15 million after tax or $0.09 per share before considering the accounting for future recovery. We've been working with regulators across our entire service territory alongside other utilities to address how these impacts the cost of service and recovery should be addressed. As a result of those discussions and regulatory orders received today at June 30, 2020, we have recorded a net regulatory asset of $12 million for future recovery which represents a significant portion of the total estimated impact. After considering the accounting for future recovery, the impact resulting from COVID-19 year-to-date is an estimated $0.05 per share in total. Let's turn to Slide…

Walter Lynch

Management

Yes. Thanks, Susan. Let's move on to the second quarter and six month results as it's been an eventful year-to-date with several key rate cases, significant capital investment, multiple acquisitions and a sharp focus on business fundamentals. Through trying times once again, the employees of American Water delivered solid results and further strengthen our low risk profile and predictable growth story. Our second quarter 2020, GAAP earnings per share increases 3.2% compared to the second quarter 2019. Included in GAAP results are $0.02 per share for depreciation not recorded due to assets out for sale and an estimated $0.05 per share unfavorable impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. We invested capital of $930 million in the first half of 2020 which is a 17% increase over the same period last year. This increase is driven by the continued investment in our systems and the communities we serve along with more favorable construction weather this year versus last. We also continue to work hard to minimize the customer bill impacts of these investments like controlling O&M costs. We continue our disciplined approach to regulated acquisitions. We've added more than 17,700 customer connections to date through closed acquisitions and organic growth and look forward to welcoming an additional 43,600 customer connections through pending acquisitions, most of which we expect to close in 2020. Our market-based businesses were up a $0.01 in earnings per share, reflecting year-to-date price increases in organic growth from Homeowner Services. We're also very honored to assume operations of Joint Base San Antonio in Texas and the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York in the second quarter of 2020. Moving to Slide 9, the foundation of our earnings growth continues to be the capital investment we make in our regulated operations to provide clean, safe and reliable…

Susan Hardwick

Management

Thanks again, Walter. Let me start on Slide 14 with a bit more detail on results. Second quarter 2020 consolidated GAAP earnings were $0.97 per share compared to $0.94 per share in 2019. As Walter mentioned included in GAAP earnings is $0.02 per share for depreciation not recorded due to assets held-for-sale accounting and the estimated $0.05 per share unfavorable impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Regulated Business segment results increased $0.10 per share or an increase of 11.5% compared to 2019 earning. The Market-Based business results increased $0.01 per share and the parent company decreased $0.08 per share compared to 2019. Our 2020 GAAP earnings through June 30 were $1.65 per share or a 5.8% increase over the same period last year. And the six month period results include $0.03 related to depreciation not recorded assets held-for-sale and an estimated $0.05 per share unfavorable impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our Regulated Businesses increased to $0.18 per share. Our Market-Based Businesses increased $0.02 per share primarily from Homeowner Services and finally the parent results decreased by $0.11 per share year-over-year. Moving to Slide 15, let me walk through the second quarter results by business. Regulated operations increased $0.14 per share before considering the $0.04 per share estimated unfavorable impact from COVID-19 on the Regulated Business. We saw a $0.20 per share increase from additional authorized revenue and surcharges to support infrastructure investments, acquisitions and organic growth. Walter mentioned as a reminder that 2019 results include $0.04 per share of unusually wet weather in the Regulated Business. O&M expense increased $0.05 per share and depreciation related to ongoing operations and $0.03 per share both to support Regulated acquisitions and other growth. The Market-Based Businesses second quarter results in 2020 increased $0.02 per share compared to 2019 before considering the $0.01 estimated…

Walter Lynch

Management

Yes. Thanks, Susan. I want to end by thanking American Water’s employees for everything they have accomplished in the first half of this year, especially since the beginning of our response is the pandemic in March. With safety as our top priority, we've continued to provide essential services in every community we serve. Through American Water and the American Water charitable foundation, we support many organizations across our footprint and make a difference for the communities we serve, including those that seek to foster a more equitable society. And as we always have, we continue to support an inclusive and diverse culture in American Water. All these efforts are in addition to executing of our strategies, investing in our systems, bringing water and wastewater solutions to new customers and communities and becoming fully operational at two new military bases. While there may be significant concerns in the market given COVID-19 and a variety of other factors, I'm pleased to report that our fundamental story of American Water remains the same and our performance remains consistent because of the incredible employees who work here. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Angie Storozynski with Seaport Global. Please go ahead.

Angie Storozynski

Analyst

So I have a question mostly about the guidance first. So just so unclear I mean on the GAAP level there is this positive offset through your - to the $0.05 hit from earnings. I mean – I am sorry from COVID related expenses. I don't have that benefit on an adjusted basis. So are you basically saying that even with that $0.05 hit I'm still within the adjusted EPS range or is there some other offset to that $0.05 hit on an adjusted basis?

Susan Hardwick

Management

Let me address that and I think you've mostly got it right. I think what we've continued to try to say here is that the range of $3.79 to $3.89 per share is what we believe to be expected results on a normalized basis. I think in the first quarter we called that adjusted because we were dealing with the depreciation issue in New York. Obviously the COVID estimates had not been fully vetted at that time. We now have a better insight as to what those COVID estimates are. But I think fundamentally, it's important to stay focused on that range of $3.79 to $3.89 which is where we believe we will end the year and whether you think about that as adjusted or as GAAP, I think it's important to note that's what we believe to be sort of normalized operations and that's what we've always said. We've gone to a GAAP guidance approach here, I think just to make it easier to understand and easier to follow what our guidance is. But there is no change from our expectation around sort of normalized results that range of $3.79 to $3.89.

Angie Storozynski

Analyst

And my second question on the New York. I appreciate Walter's comments that the sale transaction continues. It seems like at least based on press reports there are some attempts to municipalize part of this system of your New York system. So do you expect that the transaction gets delayed by those potential reviews, so and how should think about it?

Walter Lynch

Management

Okay. Thanks Angie. It’s Walter, how are you? Let me start by saying we're moving forward with the sale of New York American Water. The regulatory approval process is progressing. There have been some delays related to giving third parties an opportunity to submit alternate proposals to the sale and we've taken that into account when we look at the - what we're saying as far as the beginning of 2021. So we don't anticipate any other delays because it's a very tight time frame that they've given these communities an opportunity to submit alternate proposals. One proposal has been received so far we’re reviewing that, but Liberty and American Water committed to moving forward with the sale.

Angie Storozynski

Analyst

Awesome. And lastly, I mean we keep waiting to see the intervener’s filings in your New Jersey rate case. I understand that they haven't been posted yet. So, can you give us at least a sense what are the key contentious points and how the rate case is going?

Walter Lynch

Management

Well, the rate case is proceeding according to our anticipated schedule. We - the postings have not been published so we really can't comment on those. But just to say there is really nothing out of the ordinary in these.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Insoo Kim with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Insoo Kim

Analyst

My first question just following up on Angie’s questions on the guidance. I think, I understand that the moving pieces and longer term I do agree with the fact on an normalized basis that is what it is. But I guess just from apples-to-apples comparison versus the range that you have given out on adjusted basis as of first quarter. It seems like either the COVID expense impacts expectation is excluded from a – on apples-to-apples basis or with it you're essentially trending $0.05 to $0.08 below the original plan. You've talked about that you’re confident I think getting a lot of that back on the disconnect costs and whatnot if those things do not materialize what type of cost measures do you have to potentially offset this or is it something that you're just going to hold back and to deal with it in 2021?

Susan Hardwick

Management

Walter, I can start there and you can certainly add.

Walter Lynch

Management

Okay.

Susan Hardwick

Management

I think as we again - we’ll just talk about guidance for a second, a couple of thoughts I would give you relative to this maybe add to Angie’s response. If we were continuing to provide adjusted guidance, we'll say using that terminology we would certainly look at these COVID costs as an item that we would adjust for. So, they would be considered part of that adjusted guidance just like we had done in New York. So, we would be adjusting for them and essentially saying they shouldn't be considered as part of normalized operations. And as we thought through that, we said it just makes more sense to go straight to GAAP guidance and say these are going to be the results on the books and they happen to be exactly the same guidance we've been providing all along on a normalized basis. Again, the $3.79 to $3.89, so we knew this is literally no change in guidance. So, again that's how we think about guidance. As it relates to sort of recovering, again we've got orders in 10 of 14 states and we’ve got proceedings in the other four that we believe will allow us fully to seek recovery of all of the costs associated with COVID with the exception of the lost demand revenue, that is really the piece that ultimately falls through in that $0.05 the lost demand portions that are on the regulated side of the business. So, again we're going to continue to work with regulators on recovery of the lost demand dollars and again we think it makes sense to work through the regulatory process on recovery before we start to again sort of arbitrarily reduce costs that again can have longer-term impacts on our ability to continue to deliver services. We think this is an event that has occurred during this period. We're hoping that we start to see some moderation of that exposure in the third quarter as I mentioned. So we believe there is some isolation to it and we can again sort of work with regulators to seek recovery. And cost reductions, while we continue to focus heavily on them as we outlined here, we've made progress again on the O&M efficiency ratio and we continue to focus very heavily on cost and our cost structure in the business. We think that's where our focus should be and not on sort of arbitrary reductions that could potentially affect our ability to work or service.

Insoo Kim

Analyst

Got it. And…

Walter Lynch

Management

The only thing I’d add to that, I’m sorry, go ahead.

Insoo Kim

Analyst

My follow-up to this question was just going to be so when you do provide 2021 guidance, if there are any expectations of lingering COVID related impacts that will essentially be dogged out to provide more normalized GAAP guidance?

Susan Hardwick

Management

Well again I think we'll continue to talk about any impacts we see from COVID. I mean that's what I think we're trying to do here is simply highlight for you the significant issues that affect results and in this particular year it's the New York depreciation issue and it's COVID. To the extent we see lingering impacts into 2021, we'll continue to talk about the impact of COVID and make it very transparent to you what those impacts might be and how we're addressing them, whether they be from a regulatory perspective or some other. I'm not saying that we will adjust for them. Again I'm a bit of a purist as it relates to reporting, I think GAAP results are the best indicator of performance and so we think transparency around GAAP results is the right approach and that's what we're doing here.

Insoo Kim

Analyst

Understood. And just one follow-up if I may. I think there has been top from the campaign trail about increase clean energy plans and that's part of that just focus also on the water side and on water quality. How do you see that impacting or benefiting AWK from a rate base or having to manage expense - on an expense basis or is it still something that's more on a state-by-state basis that you’re working on?

Walter Lynch

Management

Yes. It’s really more in a state-by-state basis. We continue to talk to the folks on a federal level about the ways that private water - American Water can help resolve some of the issues and the challenges in the water and waste water space. But it's largely driven by the states.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Jonathan Reeder with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

I would just like to beat on that dead horse a little longer in terms of a cadence. But so you're kind of saying that the COVID impact’s been $0.05 so far, if you're looking in your crystal ball for the second half of the year, there is the potential for an additional $0.03, does that what - how should we - we should view that $0.05 to $0.08 full-year impact of GAAP that you're talking about?

Susan Hardwick

Management

Yes. I think that's fair Jonathan. Now as I said in the release and our remarks today, there is obviously a lot of unknowns and we will track this just like we do. It's a changing landscape every single day. But we have an expectation that the largest portion of the impact again this $0.05 or $0.04 on the regulated side is really driven by demand changes, and we expect that to start to moderate. Again, we've started to see employees return to work across our territory. We've seen industrial demand start to come back up. I think commercial is probably the biggest variable to be honest with you as you think about restaurants and some of the smaller commercial enterprises. They’re likely going to have a little bit longer recovery period. So, I think that is the biggest variable. Our current view is that we'll see some of that moderation here in the third quarter. So that $0.05 to $0.08 range we've given around COVID really reflects that set of assumptions. That’s for the balance of the year. Again, we should be able to sort of contain it within those that range, so that's our current thinking.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Okay. And for some reason you are successful getting regulators to support recovery of that lost revenue and that will represent essentially that $0.05 to $0.08 of upside to the GAAP.

Susan Hardwick

Management

Right Now, again - yes, as you think about how that process may play out though obviously we'll - we are working with regulations currently and we'll continue to do so. We'll have to work through a process to get those dollars reflected for recovery, so it may take a bit of time where there has been quick action by regulators to-date literally across the country as you know. The regulatory community has been very supportive of the process to identify a need for a solution here around particularly around disconnects and that sort of thing. The lost revenue piece is sort of another layer of challenge that we need to work through with regulators and that may take a bit of time. But yes, I mean if we can work through that, there is potential upside there. And as I mentioned in the script or in our prepared remarks, it may have been sort of a subtle comment, at the state level, we have recorded these lost revenues as recoverable items. We just took a conservative view with the parent and said we don't have regulatory orders in place to support it yet. So at the consolidated level, we did not record those regulatory assets. But we certainly expect to work through it with regulators and we'll see what progress we can make.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

And then is the $12 million regulatory asset that has been recorded on the cost side, does that assume the other four states. I mean I know Missouri is the only kind of significant size one in there. But does that assume that those four also I guess approve the cost recovery at least to recover?

Susan Hardwick

Management

Well. Yes. We certainly have taken lots of guidance from our discussions with regulators in those states. We have had actually an ongoing conversation with them from the beginning. We certainly filed petition that would support that approach. We have lots of precedents obviously in our other 10 states as well as other states across the country. So again we're not trying to predict what regulators will do necessarily, but we certainly believe we've got good support for that approach and it is reflected in the accounting that we've done today.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Okay. And that…

Walter Lynch

Management

Let me…

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

I’m sorry Walter, go ahead.

Walter Lynch

Management

No. Go ahead, go ahead Jon, then I’ll jump in.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

It’s not. Go ahead by all means.

Walter Lynch

Management

Yes. I just want to emphasize that again we run this business for the long-term and we're going to continue to focus on those cost reductions that benefit our customers, our employees in the long-term. Its part of our culture we've been doing it for many years. We're going to continue to do it. You can see the O&M efficiency continues to improve and that's really important the way we run the business. So, I just wanted to emphasize that for this call.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Yes. That kind of actually squeezed into my thoughts. So, I mean I know you guys do run a very lean shop and everything, but your comments around kind of make an arbitrary cost reductions that could impact long-term quality versus other utilities out there that seemed to be finding these cost offsets, that they say won’t impact service quality, is that just because you already feel like you run super lean where you don't have this low hanging fruit just to kind of offset the lost sales impact and therefore not have to go back to the world to ask customers to pick it up. You are already running super lean and that's why you feel like any additional cuts could impact the quality?

Walter Lynch

Management

Jon, I could only speak for our company, Jonathan, but we've been on this journey now for a dozen years focused on efficiencies and we're going to continue to do that, but again we're going to make the decisions in the context of what's right for our company, for our employees, for our customers and that's really what guides our decisions.

Jonathan Reeder

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Walter Lynch

Management

Thanks.

Susan Hardwick

Management

Thanks, Jonathan.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Walter Lynch for any closing remarks.

Walter Lynch

Management

Well, thank you. I'm going to defer right now to Ed Vallejo. He has a few comments to make.

Ed Vallejo

Management

Thanks, Walter. Well, as you all know, one of the ways American Water grows is by developing our employees and that's a great thing. So, now it's with mixed feelings today that I must share with you that Ralph Jedlicka, our IR Director for the last 3.5 years will be moving on to join our Treasury team to continue his development as a financial executive at American Water, and vice versa coming to us from the Treasury team, Mike Tavani will be joining the IR team. Mike is a CFA holder and he is experienced in Treasury at P&A and internal audit. You all will be meeting Mike virtually at least as we talk to you all over the next couple of weeks. So, Ralph, thank you for dedication and your sense of humor and most importantly for your counsel and friendship. Abbey, Kelley and I know that you'll be a great addition to the Treasury team. So, Godspeed as you continue your journey my friend. Walter?

Walter Lynch

Management

Okay. Thanks. Congratulations, Ralph and Mike. Okay. So, thank you for joining on our call today. We value your participation and the work you do on behalf of your clients. We hope our open and transparent discussions give you confidence in our company and in the investment in our stock. If you have any additional questions, please call the IR team. They'll be happy to answer them. Thanks again and be safe.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.