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Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Mon, Jul 29, 2013

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Transcript

Executives

Management

Thomas Waters Matthew J. Espe - Chief Executive Officer, President, Director and Member of Strategy Committee Thomas B. Mangas - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President Frank J. Ready - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Flooring Products North America & Victor D. Grizzle - Executive Vice President and Chief Executive officer of Armstrong Building Products

Analysts

Management

Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates, LLC Michael Jason Rehaut - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Nishu Sood - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC Stephen S. Kim - Barclays Capital, Research Division David S. MacGregor - Longbow Research LLC George L. Staphos - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Robert C. Wetenhall - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division Mike Wood - Macquarie Research Will Randow - Citigroup Inc, Research Division John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division James Barrett - CL King & Associates, Inc.

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Armstrong World Industries, Inc. Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Tom Waters, Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thomas Waters

Analyst

Thanks, Elly. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome. Please note that members of the media have been invited to listen to this call, and the call is being broadcast live on our website at armstrong.com. With me this afternoon are Matt Espe, our President and CEO; Tom Mangas, our CFO; Frank Ready, CEO of our Worldwide Floor businesses; and Vic Grizzle, CEO of our Worldwide Ceiling businesses. Hopefully, you'll have seen our press release this morning and both the release and the presentation Tom Mangus will reference during this call are posted on our website in the Investor Relations section. In keeping with SEC requirements, I advise that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those expected or implied. For a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may affect Armstrong, please review our SEC filings, including the 10-Q filed this morning. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements beyond what is required by applicable securities law. In addition, our discussion of operating performance will include non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of these measures with the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included in the press release and in the appendix of the presentation. Both are available on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Matt.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call. This past quarter marked the first year-on-year positive volume story for Armstrong since the second quarter of 2010. While 2010 growth was driven by emerging markets, in this past quarter, we experienced volume growth across all geographies. We also experienced volume growth in all 3 of our North American businesses for the first time since the first quarter of 2006. Signs of a modest recovery in the U.S. commercial markets are starting to appear. On our last call, I mentioned that we had just begun shipments from our new ceiling plant and homogeneous flooring plant in China. 90 days into active production, I'm happy to report that orders, product acceptance and manufacturing costs are all as anticipated. I look forward to the heterogeneous flooring plant starting service in August. Second quarter results on both the top line and bottom line were in the middle of our guidance ranges. Sales for the quarter of $707 million were up 5% from 2012, with minimal year-on-year foreign exchange impact. Excluding the impact of the Patriot wood distribution business that we divested in 2012, sales in the second quarter of 2013 were up 6%. All of our regions experienced sales growth. Sales were up in North America, primarily driven by homebuilder demand for wood flooring, but we also saw improvements in commercial ceilings and flooring. European sales were up in the quarter, though the ceilings business did benefit from a relatively easy year-on-year comparison. Pacific Rim sales were up despite continued weakness in Australia and we were pleased with our sales performance in ABP Americas, but we missed our expectations in our businesses in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA was $98 million. EBITDA was down as expected by $12 million from 2012, driven…

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

Thanks, Matt. Good afternoon to everyone on the call. In reviewing our second quarter results, I'll be referring to the slides available on our website starting with Slide 4, Key Metrics, as Tom Waters already covered Slide 2 and Slide 3 is simply an explanation regarding our standard basis of presentation. Matt mentioned quarterly sales and EBITDA results, so I will only point out that adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS were also down versus last year by 17% and 15%, respectively. Second quarter free cash flow of $32 million was similar to the $36 million generated in the second quarter of 2012. I will address the drivers of EBITDA and free cash flow in more detail on upcoming slides. We closed the second quarter with net debt of $764 million, down from $878 million at the end of the second quarter of 2012. Almost all the change reflects our cash generation in the last 12 months, as debt is practically the same as 2012. Finally, our unadjusted return on invested capital on a continuing operations basis was 9.3%, an increase of 100 basis points over the prior year. Slide 5 details the adjustments we made to EBITDA and provides a reconciliation to our reported net income of $31 million in the quarter. The $3 million cost reduction adjustments in this past quarter include $2 million associated with the closure of a WAVE plant in Spain and additional expenses associated with headcount reductions in our European and Australian businesses, which we announced the last quarter. In 2012, we had $8 million associated with the closure of our Mobile, Alabama ceilings plant, including some environmental charges and cost reduction actions in our European ceilings business. Interest expense was lower than in 2012 as we began to benefit from our March 2013…

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. While we're disappointed in the timing of the wood recovery and the outlook for further weakness in Europe, we're pleased with the top line strength that we saw in North America. We're optimistic that a commercial recovery may finally be starting, and as we outlined in detail, are confident we've taken the necessary steps to address our wood segment challenges. So we'd like to thank you for your time today. And with that, we'd be happy to take any questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Dennis McGill of Zelman & Associates. Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates, LLC: I guess the first question is just as it relates to capacity in the wood business, can you maybe just update us on where capacity will stand now after this last quarter you said was up and running, and how to think about that over the course of the recovery? And then just as it relates to those hires, can you just discuss a little bit about what's your finding with respect to availability of labor out there, the quality of that labor, the ability to retain the labor after have it, any kind of color you could put around that?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Let me frame it, and then we'll toss it over to Frank for more detail. So as the 400-plus new labor employees or new production employees come online, we expect to have the capacity necessary to drive service levels back to kind of our historical highs, if you will, by the end of the -- certainly, in the fourth quarter. So we think that we'll be able to manage capacity and we'll be at an acceptable capacity -- at least capacity standpoint then and with, I think, acceptable capacity utilization. In terms of labor, it has been a bit of a challenge. Certainly, early in the recruiting process, we had some challenges in a couple of our plants in terms of stability. That seems to be largely behind us. Availability of labor is tough in some of the places, just given the nature of where our plants are. And we tend to be, in most of the locations of our wood plants, the largest single employer in the area anyway, so we kind of soaked up a lot of the labor pool just to begin with. Again, we've seen very strong improvement in the trends in the labor productivity and the labor stability. And we're confident that we'll be back at the appropriate and competitive service levels in the fourth quarter. Frank, anything to add to that?

Frank J. Ready

Analyst

No, I think Matt summarized it well, both on the capacity, we'll be in full recovery position in fourth quarter. And then we anticipate, we'd be able to support demand going into 2014 at current market projections. So other than that, I think Matt covered it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan. Michael Jason Rehaut - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: My question is with regards to Europe. I believe you mentioned at the end of your prepared remarks that the change in outlook is really driven by a change in forecasts that, across all the different countries in Europe, and you kind of went through, obviously, the different ones. Just wanted to touch -- get a little more granular there. But really in terms, if those forecasts are consistent with what you're actually seeing in the field in terms of order trends from your own sales force, if it's really more the latter that's driving your change in view rather than the service and the forecast that you're subscribing to.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Well, when we think about an outlook for a market, it's a compilation of factors. I mean, we certainly consider external sources. EUROCONSTRUCT being, I think, a source that we consult regularly. But we also work hard at the third and fourth quarter outlooks from our sales force. We have a relatively strong enough share position in each of our businesses that we think that reflects real-life market dynamics. And we look at the loading in our backlog in order trends. So it's really, it's a compilation of those things. And then secondly, we are somewhat affected by our relative position geographically in Europe. As you know, we are -- in our Building Products business, we're strong in the U.K. And our flooring business, we have relatively strong positions in Central Europe and in the Scandinavia -- Scandinavian countries. In addition to that, we have a very strong presence in Russia in our ceilings business, not so much in our flooring business. And both of our businesses have, I would say, competitive and strong positions and expanding positions in the Middle East, which we include in our European results. As a company, we have very limited exposure, what we would consider traditional Southern Europe, so Italy, France and Spain. Those numbers change a little bit business by business. So it's -- our outlook is a function of certainly external resources, our sales force in a grounded forecasting method that we have in both of our businesses, and our geographic presence, our weighting, if you will, by geography. And over to Tom.

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

Yes. Mike, Tom here. A couple of thoughts. First, we did see Europe come in weaker in the second quarter. I know that was in Matt's opening comments. So it did come in weaker, even though we had a pretty good quarter all in. Our flooring business had actual sales growth in the quarter as in our ceilings actually had 7% growth on a constant FX basis. So the OpEx of the second quarter looked pretty good, but it was weaker than we expected, largely because we had some big jobs shift there. And so we're not just looking at macro forecasts. Certainly, we had an experience in the second quarter that influenced us this year and have triangulated well with the EUROCONSTRUCT. I mean, the U.K. projections are down a good 150 basis points. France is down about 300 basis points on growth rates for commercial forecasts. So that, that -- both those factors are driving our forecast.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Nishu Sood of Deutsche Bank.

Nishu Sood - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to also focus in on the Wood Flooring division. Appreciate all the color on the breakdown of the drivers. Obviously, most of the factors that you were mentioning related to materials and what sorts of materials you are purchasing and the labor as well around the cost side. You mentioned that EBITDA margins should be up, I believe, on a year-over-year basis by the fourth quarter. So my question related to that is, what are the risks you see? Obviously, this has been volatile time for that business. What are risks you see to that forecast? And also, most of the discussion was around the impact on margins. Has there been any negative impact on sales as well from the issues that, that business has been facing?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

All very good questions. To answer the last question first, there's no evidence that our revenue, or at least incoming sales have been affected by our -- by the service delays. This is -- these issues are facing entire wood flooring industry, not just us. I mean, clearly as a share leader, we'll feel these proportional to our share position. But this is -- these are challenges that everybody in the wood flooring business is facing. The order book remains strong. And so again, we're confident that we're maintaining our share and the revenue outlook should be in pretty good shape. In terms of risk, we believe we have very robust processes in place. We are micromanaging the actions to address the 4 issues that we laid out. To the extent there's any risk, I would characterize the risk as more timing than execution. So in our view, said another way, we don't think it's a matter of if, it might be a matter of when. But having said that, we believe we've factored responsibly any sort of timing risk in the outlook that we shared with you guys today. And then Frank, any additional color?

Frank J. Ready

Analyst

No, I mean, when we look at green lumber versus PKD, we have seen gren lumber receipts come up. This is the time of year that you can get green Lumber, so feel very good about where we stand there, PKD versus green. Inflation, as I think Tom and Matt indicated earlier, while at a high level, the rate of increase has slowed down, and in some cases, stopped. So seemingly, we've found where the ceiling is, so to speak, on inflation. And those 2 factors are the biggest drivers going forward that we need to see come true. So all in all, I think we've categorized the risk appropriately. And I think Matt said it well when he said, it's a function of timing versus whether we'll get it or not.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Zener of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Kenneth R. Zener - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

With so much of your EBIT, corporate EBIT tied to your ceiling systems in the U.S., can you talk about the increase in volume that we saw in the quarter as it relates to, I think, you guys had talked about retail R&R kind of leading the way initially. But can you expand on that as it relates to perhaps seasonal education, health care, given the way we're seeing positive volume in the U.S.?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Yes, just a couple of opening comments, and we'll throw it over to Vic. We saw North America, we actually saw a very solid signs of a modest recovery. So we're beginning to see some traction in a lot of segments. I would point to the office segment and remodel as holding up relatively well. We're still seeing relative weakness in health care and education as it relates -- of course, those are both tied to public spending. I mean, we haven't seen state budgets healing measurably yet. I think we'll have to see employment strengthen somewhat more significantly than we have to see the tax revenue drive into the state budgets and that and finding its way into construction of schools and remodel of schools. So we're still a little cautious there. But we did see relatively strong results in almost every region in the U.S. and across a series of market segments. And we think that's mostly market related. Vic?

Victor D. Grizzle

Analyst

Yes. I think in the opening remarks, we talked about the impact of the Sandy renovation activity up in the Northeast region. So we had one region particularly strong, and that volume was driven, again, due to the Sandy renovation work. As Matt said, we're not seeing any education or health care bump. In fact, those starts continue to be negative year-over-year. And the volume driven is broad-based, as Matt said, and it's driven by the office renovation activity for the most part.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

I with reiterate just before we close out this one that our Building Products business saw strength really in all regions. So we saw it in...

Victor D. Grizzle

Analyst

Northeast.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

North America, Europe and in the Pacific Rim.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research.

Kathryn I. Thompson - Thompson Research Group, LLC

Analyst

I wanted to take more of a forward look on demand. And in your prepared comments, you said that global architectural sales were up in the mid-teens, which would theoretically imply an acceleration of trends for your non-res-focused sales. Could you talk about early, early Q3 trends in your ceilings segment just related to that? And then also, if you could touch on trends in wood, given that there has been a lot of focus on the impact of rising interest rates on potential residential demand? And finally touch on Resilient Flooring, too, and any other relevant trends you'd care to share.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Sure. I mean, Architectural Specialties, we're seeing broad-based strength. Geographically, Kathryn, Architectural Specialties, part of the world that's exceptionally exciting for us right now is the Middle East. So the good news is, it's a great market for that. There are these very significant projects there, and our position is, we feel we have a very competitive position. As we've discussed in the past, there's a drafting effect of a good, strong architectural specialty specification in the fact that it drafts the mineral fiber with it. The tough part about that part of the world is the fact that it's projects, so it's kind of binary. You have to bid the project, write the project. And then of course, these projects all have to ship as forecasted. So it challenges us a little bit from a counter perspective on outlooking the revenue. But I would say that, we're seeing broad-based strength in Architectural Specialties. As that segment within ceilings continues to grow, we're well positioned there. In terms of -- why don't you -- Vic, you want to comment on that? And then we'll kick it over to Tom.

Victor D. Grizzle

Analyst

No, I think you said it very well. And again, I think we also have a pretty good pipeline of projects in the Americas and in Europe to continue in addition to the Middle East. So I think there is a little bit of momentum to that business, and we should see some continued growth there.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Tom?

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

Yes, if I could just add one thing, Kathryn, just to put an exclamation point on it. The growth, very exciting growth in Architectural Specialties. We're seeing, we believe, is share gain, okay? This is not a signal of incremental demand. This is a result of our intentional investment in the architectural specialty space in all regions of the world, and that's showing through on the top line and the bottom line for us. Relative to kind of what are we seeing in July? Let me just speak a bit about the second quarter then, in July. Really the quarter came in largely as we expected in the second quarter, which meant a pretty strong April and May and a pretty soft June. That's kind of how we expected it. That's how it came in. That's true across both flooring and ceilings in the month of June. But in the month of July, we see it coming back. So I think it's going to continue to be choppy. We're going to have signals of strength of demand, and we're going to have signals of weakness in demand. And so we're just trying to do our best to discern it. But I'd say, June's off to a reasonably good start, but in line with the kind of outlook we've provided on the quarter.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

And then the other comment with respect to wood. Despite some tightening of the financial belt, there doesn't seem to be any softening in the outlook for demand on housing starts. And as we said, we're beginning to see a little strength in resi remodels, so that will drive some of the wood business, too. And we'll see that through the big box channel. So listen, we're keeping an eye on this, obviously, constantly. But currently, there just doesn't seem to be any change in that trajectory. And in addition, like we said, we're starting to see some strength in remodel. And Frank, I don't know if you want to add anything to that or?

Frank J. Ready

Analyst

I think that's well said.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim of Barclays.

Stephen S. Kim - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask you a couple of questions -- well, I guess, a question about your plant openings. If you could -- you mentioned about the LVT plant. And I guess you took up your CapEx spend about $10 million for this year. Is that going to be the extent of the investment in this LVT plant? If you could talk a little bit more about also what you're expecting from this plant: the kind of ramp-up it will provide, and ultimately, what you think its run rate might be? And then in China, you mentioned something about the plant there, about how -- because you're starting to produce more locally there that you've -- the customers are holding less inventory. Could you quantify that for us?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Well, let's talk about the LVT plant first. So the $10 million, Stephen, represents the amount of investment in plant that we anticipate this year. We've got a lot of work to do to finalize things like site selection, engineering, et cetera. So we'll be sharing more information on the economics behind the plant and the timing behind the plant as we go into the year. So everything you asked about is somewhat dependent on the first decision we have to make which is site selection. And so we're hopeful to have that done shortly and we're hopeful to be able to share more information about that in the third quarter call. But LVT represents a significant growth opportunity for us. We do believe the economics, despite sites in U.S., are compelling, just in terms of the import duty and distribution cost avoidance. It gives us tremendous flexibility from a manufacturing perspective, allows us to maintain all those [ph] inventory, and frankly gives Frank's team a lot more flexibility around design. And so we're able to fine-tune the products a lot faster. So its margin should improve, responsiveness should improve, and our ability to innovate improves as well. So we're excited about it. And again, there's tons to share as we go forward. And just wanted to share the fact that the board supported us for yet another significant investment in manufacturing as with the revenue and position the business -- the company for further sales growth in the future. And the second question was?

Frank J. Ready

Analyst

On China, the impact of...

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Why don't you -- you want to take that, Frank?

Frank J. Ready

Analyst

Yes, Stephen, I think the question was on China, what was the impact on going local production versus sourcing. And the best way I can answer that is to tell you, when we source products into China, typically the lead time was 12 to 15 weeks. Going local, that's now down to 2 to 3 weeks. So we cut the supply chain by 70%, which then have the significant impact on inventory reduction in the system. That's largely behind us. We knew it would be a 2- to 3-month adjustment of inventory. And so what we should see going forward is largely the result of demand supported by local production.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David MacGregor of Longbow Research.

David S. MacGregor - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Just to follow-up on the LVT question a moment ago, I guess the question you can't really talk about the total available market, as these plants have a limited shipping radius, and it will depend on where you're situated. Is that how we should interpret your answer?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

That's good question, David. No, not all. I mean, I think we've got -- we've modified our LVT capability in Europe, and we're seeing some strength there. But no, this is -- this isn't necessarily a factor of a geographic limitation. I think what we want to do is make sure we get the -- nail down the economics of the plant before we sort of become a little bit more transparent on what we wanted -- how we want to describe the economics. I mean, we'll always try to place a plant investment and the returns on that investment in the context of the market. So rather than talk about market without the plant, we want to put the story together and kind of share it with you in the third quarter. And Frank?

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

I would -- this is Tom. Just I mean, we are expecting this plant to be extremely attractive IRR project. It will be in excess of the plants we built in the emerging markets, given the North America margin structure. And Stephen, to your earlier point, we are expecting about $10 million in the current year just to get going. We're expecting the bulk of the spend to happen in 2014. Again, that's going to depend on the site selection, though. That's why we're being a little ambiguous here because we need to pick the site and decide, do we need a building? Do we not need a building? And how fast can we get going on it to articulate ramp-up speed? But we have framed, I think, for the board, another very attractive investment, mostly a savings project, not dependent on share growth to achieve returns, which I think we've got a great track record of delivering.

Frank J. Ready

Analyst

And just to reconfirm what we said earlier on, the site selection, this is a North American plant to support the North American market. So as we go through site selection, we'll pick the right location in North America, but this plant is not a global plant. This is to support the local North American market and demand.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from George Staphos of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

George L. Staphos - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask kind of a two-part on manufacturing and the outlook. On LVT, from your vantage point, is there anyone else considering adding capacity in luxury vinyl tile in North America? Or do you think you'll be the only new capacity being added and therefore, meeting a market that's more attractive than would be otherwise? And then the second question I had, just in terms of wood products, do you think there's been any kind of pre-buying or double booking in current fundamentals that's leading to perhaps a pull back in demand, just when you're ready to produce in the fourth quarter and beyond?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Thanks. Two good questions. The first is, to our knowledge, nobody is considering an LVT investment. Of course, it's impossible to be 100% certain, but there's no evidence that anybody else is considering that. Of course, that could change at any time. We don't think an additional investment by our competition, if at all, would change the economics of our product, but that would be something to consider. In terms of doubling up on wood demand, again, there's no evidence of that going on. Frank's team looks at wholesale to retail sell-through. We look at our residential contractors' building schedules. So we try to keep an eye on the demand of our customers, as well as the demand from our customers. And again, we try to pressure check this regularly to make sure that we haven't got excessive demand signals in the backlog. But there's really no evidence that suggests that's the case, but that's something we look at and monitor all the time.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bob Wetenhall of RBC Capital Markets.

Robert C. Wetenhall - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

It sounds like your guidance suggests that EBIT margin might comp negative in the third quarter in Resilient Flooring and ceilings. And I was wondering if the implied negative comp is just due to the start-up ramp costs you have with the new plants that you've been talking about? And just if I could sneak one other in, is there any risk to the wood price increase in flooring? Is that something which is, from your perspective, in the bag?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Let me take the wood pricing increase question first, then we'll kick it over to Tom to talk about the EBITDA outlook. At this point, Bob, the most recent price increase, obviously, hasn't gone into effect yet. But we are getting -- we've been successful in negotiating the historic levels at which realization of those price increases. We think demand will continue to be strong in the third and fourth quarter. We think supply will tighten -- loosen somewhat, but certainly still be relatively tight when you consider it somewhat historically. So again, Frank's team is working very hard with our channel partners, in big box and the residential contractors to make sure that we are in a position to continue to serve their demand. And again, they've been successful. It's tough negotiations in being somewhat successful in getting the price. So nothing yet to suggest that the next price increase won't hold, but we're not there yet. And so in terms of the EBITDA and the pressures on the EBITDA in the third quarter, Tom?

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

This is Tom. Yes, I think you've summarized it correctly. The -- we are ramping up the heterogeneous plant here in the third quarter, so that is 1 of the 3 plants starting up concurrent in the third quarter, along with the -- both the ceilings and the homogeneous plant beginning to achieve the commercialization. And so we are spending heavily on SG&A in both those segments to deliver against the growth plans of those plants and get the plants start up and through. Really, the start-up curves, these plants don't start at full capacity, and they'll start in a straight line, vertical line. So that is correct. And this is probably not that different than the third quarter outlook than what we would have provided before, except for the wood segment. So I think relative to the expectation we would have had or you might have had before, what's changed in the third quarter is much more on the wood side and a little bit of Europe.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Wood of Macquarie.

Mike Wood - Macquarie Research

Analyst

You mentioned the green lumber receipts are up. Is it seasonal or is supply finally starting to catch up? And if you could just talk also about what your expectations embedded for the price inflation in wood for the fourth quarter. Is it to subside like framing lumber has, or is it flat from current levels?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Mike, the answer to your question -- to answer the first part of your question is both. I mean, there's certainly a seasonal component to getting the wood. There's a weather dimension, et cetera. So we do see steady improvement in green lumber availability, and you've got capacity coming online and seasonality. So that says that the improvements we're seeing should be sustainable and certainly, the drying sheds, our hardwood flooring plants are certainly a lot more full than they were in the first quarter. In terms of inflation in the outlook, as we think about the balance of the year, as Frank -- as we pointed out in the comments, I think Frank will back this up, we see it settling in at higher than historical levels, but it appears to be leveling off. There's nothing that suggests that's going to peak [ph] up again. But again, like so many other things, on this one, we watch it all the time. There's no evidence to suggest at this point. There's no stimulus to suggest it should increase, but we watch it all the time. And Tom, anything to...

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

I think you've covered our outlook on the year. It assumes that it's plateauing here. And we priced for the plateau, and so that's built into our outlook.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Will Randow of Citigroup.

Will Randow - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

A question on the balance sheet. Looks like you brought leverage down about 0.5 turn on a net debt to EBITDA basis year-on-year, as well as you expect to build about $1 per share in cash from free cash flow. So I guess, how are you thinking about capital deployment outside of the plant you mentioned? Any room here for special dividends or anything of that nature?

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

Well, thank you for the question, Will, this is Tom. Obviously, we are always keeping our eye on the balance sheet. We have framed a range, as you know, of 2 to 3x net debt to EBITDA as our target range. And yes, at the end of the second quarter, we are at 2, 2.0 basically on a net debt to EBITDA range. So we're coming at the low end of the range. We've never said that as soon as we hit the bottom of the threshold, we're going to do something automatically. We'll obviously evaluate capital deployment against other alternatives out there like acquisitions or organic capital expansion. And so we will continue to dialogue it over here, with no announcement today obviously on a dividend or other deployment. But certainly, we are cognizant that we are -- through our cash generation and earnings growth that we're projecting for this year and through our mid-cycle guidance that we'll be delevering quickly and want to look for smart ways to do deploy that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Baugh of Stifel, Nicolaus. John A. Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division: Just a quick question on the wood segment, if I could. The mix erosion you alluded to with builder being stronger. I assume that's something that's going to continue going forward. So could you sort of discuss how mix plays into your guidance? And then I think you made a reference to being back to mid-2012 EBIT ranges on the fourth quarter. I just wanted to make sure what kind of that number was.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Sure. I'll comment on the mix dynamics, and then Tom or Frank can comment on the margins. The mix is purely -- the mix dynamic is really a function of the customer segment strength. So as you might imagine, you've got the strength coming out of the block was residential contractors. So you're dealing with the kind of base layer product at that point. We'll continue to see that demand remain, but the mix increase or improvement we see comes from big box. So we would see our 2 large big box channels delivering improved mix over that as remodel improves or just the sell-through from them improves. So as they come on stronger, we expect the mix will move in the right direction. But it's purely a function of customer segment dynamics. And Tom?

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

And John, on the margin, you heard correct. We're -- our plans for that improved mix for the pricing, catching up with the inflation and the improvement in wood productivity should yield a Q4 EBIT margin that gets to, what I'll call, mid-2012 EBIT margins. And you can go back and look, you'll see it was about a hair over 11% on an EBIT margin basis. We're obviously well below that in the current quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Barrett of CL King & Associates. James Barrett - CL King & Associates, Inc.: This is a question for either Matt or Vic. To what degree does the second half guidance incorporate your August price increase in ceilings in the U.S. being successful? Could you comment on that?

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I think we've had -- this is Matt. I think we've had a track record the last couple of years of getting strong yield from those price increases. There's nothing that suggests that we'll fail to get our historical yield from the announced price increase. So when Vic's team puts together the outlook and the forecast, they factored in historical price increase yield on that. And Vic, any?

Victor D. Grizzle

Analyst

No, that's well said.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is a follow-up from Nishu Sood of Deutsche Bank.

Nishu Sood - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

I wanted to ask about the -- more specifically about the sales guidance for the third quarter, the $740 million, I believe it was, to $780 million. So with sales in the first and second quarter kind of having come in where you've expected, you continue to expect this acceleration into the back half of the year. I was wondering if you could break that down first geographically, since you're saying Europe is maybe a little bit weaker. Does that imply a greater-than-expected trajectory in North America? And also divisionally, I was wondering if you could break it down for us whether the kind of relative sales strength that we've seen in the first half of the year will persist into the second half.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Okay. So in terms of geographic that [ph] we are expecting continued strength in the North American business. If you look at our ceilings business, we're modestly optimistic of a modest commercial recovery. I really -- we would continue to describe the environment as choppy, but I think we're somewhat -- we like what we see in the second half. Clearly, on the flooring side of the business, we'll see Resilient Flooring kind of maintain a flattish kind of an outlook, but the wood business will continue to be extremely strong. And so as we go on the other side of the supply versus demand issues, I mean, we're going to see our ability to supply that demand go up significantly as these 400 labor production employees come online and become more productive. Europe, Europe is kind of a mixed bag. We've got some benefit of some timing in the first half. We expect to see Russia strengthen -- continued strength in the Russian market and a little help in Architectural Specialties in the Middle East. In the Pacific Rim, we'll see relative strength in China and India, and in both businesses, we'll continue to expect an outlook of relatively weak Australia. And then Tom?

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

Yes, so maybe a little bit more building up from ground zero here on the blocks. We've been taking huge pricing in both businesses. So on a year-on-year basis, we'll have all the wood pricing kicking in. Our last announced increase is effective middle of July. That's cumulative on top of the other increases we've taken. We've got the ceilings price increase in the beginning of August effective. And also similarly, they took a price increase in February. So we've had significant pricing in the Americas kicking in. That's a big contributor. Secondly, we continue to expect that the strength of volume demand driven by new construction and wood. So you take those 2 things and then you also back out the fact that we will be anniversary-ing, in August, our Patriot divestiture, which has been a drag for the prior 3 quarters. We will not have that as significant of a drag there. I think that's how we get confident around the level of sales growth that we've seen, and then also help drive the sales growth we enjoyed in the second quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David MacGregor of Longbow Research.

David S. MacGregor - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Just as a follow-up, I wonder if you could talk about your third quarter guidance and specifically, total plant start-up expenses that you have in that number.

Thomas B. Mangas

Analyst

Yes, David, we haven't guided on a quarterly level how the plant expenses are. On a full year basis, we've told folks we expect it to be $10 million to $15 million of plant start-up expense and another $5 million to $10 million of SG&A expense associated with the emerging market plant start-ups. And we haven't really put that on a quarter-by-quarter basis, so that's about as specific as we've gotten on that.

Operator

Operator

And with no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Matt Espe for any closing remarks.

Matthew J. Espe

Analyst

Okay. Well, on behalf of everybody here, we appreciate your interest this afternoon and your questions. We've got our work cut out for us, certainly, in the wood business. We're confident that we've got the right actions in place, and we're tracking appropriately. And we feel that everywhere around the world, Armstrong is positioned to take advantage of a strong market, if it occurs, or continue to win in challenging markets if that be the case. So thank you very much. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. You may all disconnect, and have a wonderful day.