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Avient Corporation (AVNT)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 17, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the PolyOne Corporation Fourth Quarter 2011 Conference Call. My name is Chantelle, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Cynthia Tomasch, Vice President of Planning and Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Cynthia Tomasch

Analyst

Thank you, Chantelle. Good morning, and welcome to everyone joining us on the call today. Before beginning, we would like to remind you that statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements will give current expectations or forecasts of future events and are not guarantees of future performance. They're based on management's expectations and involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. Some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as in today's press release. During the discussion today, the company will use both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the earnings release posted on the PolyOne website, where the company describes the non-GAAP measures and provides a reconciliation of them to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Operating results referenced during today's call will be comparing the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2010, unless otherwise stated. All prior year financial references will be based on restated financial statements for the change in pension accounting to the mark-to-market method adopted by the company effective January 1, 2011. Joining me today on our call is our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Newlin; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Bob Patterson. Now I will turn the call over to Bob, who will review the quarterly results.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Thanks, Cynthia, and everyone who's joining us on the call this morning. As always, we welcome the opportunity to speak to our investors and analysts about the recent performance of PolyOne. And I'd like to begin today by introducing Cynthia to those of you who have not met her. She is PolyOne's new Vice President of Planning and Investor Relations. For the past 3 years, Cynthia was General Manager of our Specialty Coatings & Specialty Resins businesses within our Performance Products & Solutions segment. Through her leadership, she turned around 2 businesses that were collectively losing money in 2008 and are 2 of our most profitable in 2011. In fact, she won our prestigious Chairman's Leadership Award in 2009. Prior to that, in Cynthia's 19 years of experience with PolyOne, she held numerous leadership roles in finance, marketing and sales. She earned a Bachelor's degree in Physics from Denison University and an MBA from Case Western Reserve University. I am pleased to have Cynthia in this new capacity and serving as the point person for investors and analysts. With that, let's get into the quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2011, we reported sales of $640 million, an income before special items of $16.7 million versus sales of $618 million, and income before special items of $14.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2010. This resulted in a 20% expansion in adjusted EPS to $0.18 this year versus $0.15 last year, and this marks an impressive ninth quarter in a row that we have reported double-digit adjusted EPS growth over the prior year and brings to close a record year for PolyOne in terms of both sales and adjusted EPS. And please note that the ColorMatrix transaction, which closed on December 21, had effectively no impact on PolyOne's income. Performance…

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Thanks, Bob, and good morning. Well, the fourth quarter of 2011 brings to a close another strong year for PolyOne and, I mean, highlights the earnings growth potential of the new PolyOne, as we continue to focus on profitable growth in becoming a specialty company that consistently delivers year-over-year earnings growth. Since Bob has already covered our fourth quarter financial performance, my remarks will focus on our full year accomplishments as we establish a number of records. For the full year, 2011 sales totaled $2.9 billion, a 9% increase from 2010 and a new record for PolyOne. We also delivered record adjusted EPS of $1.02, a 29% increase over prior record, which was set in 2010. These full year results are particularly encouraging as they were generated by record-breaking performances in each of our 3 strategic platforms. Both the Specialty and Distribution platforms delivered record earnings, and Performance Products & Solutions generated record return on sales. Despite slower economic conditions in the second half of the year, we achieved these record performances as we focused intensely on our 4 pillar strategy. While we curtailed spending in the second half of 2011, we did not cut back on innovation. In fact, we continue to invest heavily in innovation at PolyOne to support our strategy. Last fall, we conducted our first-ever Innovation Week in which we brought key marketing and technical resources together to share best practices, foster ingenuity and improve our customer-centric innovation skills. We also tapped one of the world's premier thought leaders on innovation, Dr. Clayton Christianson [ph], who helped train and inspire innovators. We're developing solutions to solve our customers' toughest challenges. I remind you that we measure our success in developing and selling new innovative products through our Vitality Index, which measures the percentage of specialty sales…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes of the line of Frank Mitsch of Wells Fargo Securities.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Steve, how can I get access to your frequent flyer miles? It seems like you've racked up quite a bit so far this year.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

That's a great question. I could trade places, I guess.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

You told the story about mix improvement, and I know that, that was one of the keys behind the Global Colors segment. I was wondering if you could maybe spend a moment or 2 and just kind of flesh that out a little bit more in terms of what can we expect in the future from that area and if there are any specific examples to kind of bring it to something tangible that we can touch and feel.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Well, I'll take a first pass at that, Frank, and I think it's hard to put that into terms that what I say serve as a forecast for the future because we don't really know to what extent we would prune accounts in the future. And as we have said in prior quarters, I always look back on 2011 and the amount of pruning that we did and say, look, a lot of that was predicated on pretty significant inflation that we experienced at the beginning of this year, which forced us to have some difficult conversations with transaction oriented-type customers, where we couldn't get the desired level of profitability. To the extent that we see inflation in the future and it's extreme as it was this last year, you may see more of the same. So I -- with our expectations of mid single-digit type inflation numbers, I think it will diminish significantly. You want to add?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes. I mean, I think it's -- Frank, it's an iterative process. And I think it's part of getting better continuously and getting smarter and more thoughtful about where your resources are allocated and taking care of those customers who appreciate the value that you bring to the table. And many do, but some occasionally don't. They're very transactional in nature. And we will continue to have moderate pruning going forward just as part of our overall strategy, because we're not going to allocate our resources away from customers who appreciate what we bring and direct -- tie those resources up at customers who are really just being transactional in nature. I think that the ColorMatrix opportunity gives us a unique chance to do some of this as well, because we -- they have a tremendous portfolio of very value-added products, a wonderful additives portfolio that we think can also be applied to many of our current palate masterbatch customers as well. So I think you'll continue to see a modest level of this mixing up. It is an integral part of our strategy, and I think it makes very good sense for us.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

And, Steve, speaking about ColorMatrix, you obviously raised your accretion expectation for that business. And I'm wondering what it -- what was it specifically that you've been able to see there that gives you the confidence that you can get more out of it?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes. I want to answer, Frank, but Bob just -- he's jumping in here. He's going to get this one.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

I think, principally, it's just a result of the better rates that we got on the underlying debt that we used to secure the deal. I believe we have said previously around 6% to 7%, and the all-in effective rate on the term loan B is 5.6% now. So that's given us a good guide in 2012 from where we were before.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

So that's the financial answer. But I have to tell you, having spent more time with these people and getting to know them and seeing what we really have in here, normally when you make an acquisition, we tend to not always get it -- everything in diligence, and there are usually a few adverse surprises and you expect them and hope that they're not significant. The surprises that we've seen have all been on the upside, and so we are really -- I'm really excited about this group of people. They're very talented. The more I learn about their technology and the portfolio that they have, the more enthusiastic we are about this deal. I'm really glad we have it, and I think you can expect really good things from ColorMatrix.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

All right, terrific. And then lastly, obviously, with the transaction, your net debt to EBITDA ticked up above 2. What sort of targets do you have there, and any sense on timing when you will achieve those leveraged targets?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

I mean, we've typically answered that question, saying that we would be comfortable taking that up to a higher level of leverage, even as high as, say, 3 but with a long-term goal of trying to stay below 2. With the improvement in earnings in 2012, we'll be below that level in short order.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

All right. By year-end?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line Saul Ludwig of Northcoast Research.

Saul Ludwig

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Bob, what will be the interest expense for the year?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

It'll be close to $50 million.

Saul Ludwig

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Okay. The policy that you've done now with pension and that you're going to mark it to market each year in the fourth quarter, whatever that number is, are you going to call that special and call it out from your reported results? Or does this pension affect -- become an ongoing, either plus or minus, impact on your reported results?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

The fourth quarter mark-to-market adjustment will be called out as a special. And going forward, that will obviously be a good guy or a bad guy depending on market return of assets during the year and discount rate changes at the end of the year. It is important to note that the ongoing expense assumptions for pension are not carved out as a special item. They are included in operations. So we've made no change there. But where that mark-to-market used go to the balance sheet, it now goes the P&L. In the fourth quarter, we're calling that a special.

Saul Ludwig

Analyst · Northcoast Research

And what will be your pension expense in '12 versus '11?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

We -- pension expense should actually be a little bit higher in 2012 by about $2 million versus where it was in 2011.

Saul Ludwig

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Okay. And then finally, could you just -- I know of the issue about the volume is less important than the mix and your pruning actions. But could you just run through what your fourth quarter volume changes were by the 4 different segments?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes, I can do that for you. Saul, hold on one second here, sorry. On the volume, sorry -- well, first of all, I would tell you that as we went through and we did have the mix changes that Steve referenced, it is a critical omen of our transformation story to replace high-volume, low-margin commodity business with higher-margin Specialty business that is often lower margin. Now we talked about this really having a positive impact on Color and Additives. Where fourth quarter organic volume was down 17%, yet operating income increased 21%.

Saul Ludwig

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Was that -- was it down 17% for Color or for the whole company or what?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

No, that was for -- I'm just speaking to the Color segment. Now I think you're asking me to go through and do that, and that's my intention. So 17% for Color. For PP&S and Distribution, volumes were down about 6%. Operating income increased by 60% and 23%, respectively. And as you know, where we were challenged in the fourth quarter was in our Engineered Materials business, where the economic downturn disproportionately impacted our highest margin businesses and consumer products, and organic volume for EM in the fourth quarter was down 17%. And operating income declined associated with that, due to softening demand for premium-priced product care -- product categories in the second half of the year. So the balance of that, of course -- FX had very little impact on the quarters, so the balance of that makes up really price and mix.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Saul, it's Steve. I appreciate the way you framed the question, because as you know us very, very well and as you know this is the -- looking at us from volume standpoint is not the best way to really understand our progress and what's going on. And I know you know that, but I think for the benefit of other listeners, it's important that we reiterate this as we've been consistent with this message now for 3 or 4 years. So I hope that answers the volume question.

Saul Ludwig

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Very good. No, excellent. But it was 17%, 17%, 6% and 6%.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Right.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes the line of Mike Sison of KeyBanc.

Michael Sison

Analyst

In terms of your 2012 outlook, Steve, you noted that you expect another record year. You gave us a little bit of color on ColorMatrix in terms of accretion. Can you sort of map out some of the areas that should help you have another good year?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes, I'll do the best I can on that. I think we're feeling better and better about 2012. I think third quarter and fourth quarter, it looked a little scary. We're still very concerned about Europe, and we think it's fragile at best. And I believe it's going to limit some of the expansion and probably result in a reduction in demand. Don't know much for sure anymore than you do, of course, about the dollar, but most likely, our belief is it'll strengthen against the euro. We have some expenses in the first half of 2012 that are above and beyond the normal expense in prior years. That includes this first-ever global sales meeting that we held in February. And then in April, we have the NPE 2012, the National Plastics Exposition, which we will participate heavily in, and that's an every 3 year event. So that's not in our base. So those are sort of what I would call anomalous expenses, plus the investments that we've made that we think are appropriate for long term. So maybe there's some near-term hurdles but we are looking -- we're very optimistic medium to long-term about the growth opportunities, and we think we're going to have a very strong second half of this year. And we're not looking past the first half either. But growth rates decelerated a bit, and that's a result of this current economic environment.

Michael Sison

Analyst

Okay. Then in terms of the profitability by segment. I think you noted in your opening comments that you expect to hit the 2012 margin goals for each of the segments in '12.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Northcoast Research

We didn't say that specifically. I think what we've said was that -- this is -- we really didn't actually comment on that. We're well on our way though. And I think if we're not there, we'll be very close.

Michael Sison

Analyst

Okay. And what type of growth do you think you'll see in ColorMatrix, Steve, in 2012 versus '11 implied in the accretion guidance?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Yes. I think -- well, I mean, first of all, I would say that recall that 70% of ColorMatrix business is outside the U.S., with a relatively heavy concentration in Western Europe. And so it is possible that we may see some muted growth this year,, just based on the consumer confidence in that region and dynamics around PET bottle consumption. But it's -- they're still going to see growth this year. Historically, they've had double-digit growth in sales and even higher, near 16% double-digit growth in EBITDA, and we expect that to be the case by 2013.

Michael Sison

Analyst

Okay, great. And last one, there's been some optimism that housing is getting better, maybe stabilizing. Are you seeing any optimism for your clients in those areas as we head into 2012?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Northcoast Research

Mike, I mean, it's still -- it's pretty early to tell. There are some encouraging signs. We have -- as you know, we've been very bearish on this process, and we've been readying and preparing and dealing with this, our organization, for the worst aspects of this. We've been on the bottom end of all the consensus estimates and have been closer to reality. So I don't want to get us all revved up about the housing until we have really concrete evidence that it's improving. I will say that January looked good. I think we'll know a lot more by the end of April, if we see improvements. Second quarter is always -- is a big one for housing starts. And if we get some uptick there, that'll help us. I look forward to the time then that it happens. It's going to depend I think -- we've got the interest rate environment. I think there's certainly opportunities for improvement if we get continued strengthening in the unemployment or the employment rates. So those are the things, I think, that are going to drive it more than anything else.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

A couple of questions around raw materials, I guess. What did you see as far as the raw material cost in the fourth quarter? And are you seeing raw material cost increasing in 2012? And also, if you can comment on your pricing actions, if you're trying to stay ahead of the curve there.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

First of all, we don't quote specific numbers on raw material cost impacts within our own business, but we do take and try to quote market pricing for the basket of items that we do purchase. And those were up roughly 17% in the fourth quarter of '11 versus fourth quarter of '10. We think it's reasonable to expect mid single-digit type inflation in 2012. There has been some recent activity around butadiene that's suggesting that's going up at an even faster pace and that off of its lows in the fourth quarter of last year. And I think there's going to continue to be tightness around TiO2. So when we think about the future, we're typically most focused on those areas of specialty supplier versus the larger-based resins.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

And can you comment on pricing? What are you doing?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

Well, I mean, from a pricing standpoint, if you're referencing our customer pricing, our -- ultimately, our intention here is that we need to get pricing to more than offset the inflationary effects, and so that would be our plan for 2012.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

Yes. Eugene, we really proactively monitor these raw material prices and the potential supply-demand conditions that could impact our sales margins. And I think that you have seen us deal with this pretty well through a rather heavy inflationary period. Our sourcing and commercial organizations work together, and they institute the necessary increases, so wherever appropriate to ensure we're not allowing raw material price increases to adversely impact our sales margins.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

Great. And what are your expectations about -- for tax rates for this year?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

I still use 34% as a good rate for modeling purposes.

Eugene Fedotoff

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

And just last question, can you tell us what the ColorMatrix sales and operating income was in the quarter?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Eugene Fedotoff of Longbow Research

Well, I'll tell you that for the year, ColorMatrix had about $200 million of revenue and $43 million of EBITDA, which was actually, really very close to what we said in the third quarter when we went out and secured the financing around that. And so those are the numbers that we have right now. I will tell you that there's an 8-K that will be filed shortly with some pro forma numbers, and those notes are forthcoming.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Ritzenthaler of Piper Jaffray.

Mike Ritzenthaler

Analyst · Mike Ritzenthaler of Piper Jaffray

My question is around Distribution expansion. You mentioned the POD facility in Shanghai. Can you give us a little more detail around expanding further the footprint in China and perhaps Brazil, Latin America and maybe even outside of POD in some of those more Specialty products?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Mike Ritzenthaler of Piper Jaffray

Well, I mean, we're just putting our foot in the water, toe in the water, really, in China, in Asia for that matter right now with POD. We were very focused. We're very selective. We have a lot to learn about how to run a distribution business there, but so far so good. We're focused in -- really, on healthcare solutions at this time, and we anticipate that we'll expand that. And we're just focused around the Shanghai area. That said, we have 6 facilities in China. So we have a very nice position in China and improving throughout Asia. So we'll continue to invest where we see the higher growth opportunities, and we always measure the sort of the political risk, the economic risk when we make the decisions about where we expand. But I think Asia offers further opportunities for us. India is a place where we haven't -- I don't think we've done a good enough job yet in terms of beginning to get serious about penetrating that arena. We have a fresh leadership team down there, who I think is going to do a really good job for us, but we will need to most likely and want to make some additional investment in India. As for South America, you mentioned, we're really -- again, starting with Brazil, we have more work to do in Brazil, first, before we consider expanding out into such places as Argentina and others. The attractiveness in that region is really primarily focused around Brazil, and that's just due to size and progress and GDP expansion, as well as sort of pending events that we think are going to have sort of permanent impacts on the overall economy, like the World Cup and the Olympics that are planned for the near and intermediate future.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Schwartz of First Analysis.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

In PP&S, you guys had a very nice gross margin. I think we were expecting lower PVC costs. Bob, you mentioned higher prices. Is it that your pricing was that much stronger that gave you that result?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

I mean, it really is a combination of pricing to a certain extent, as well as I think ongoing benefit from Lean Six Sigma and sourcing savings. It's a combination of all those things.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Okay. So we can expect that to continue going forward in the next -- at least, the next few quarters, it will carry through.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Look, it's our expectations, Steve, to be able to manage pricing. What we can't always manage is the external environment, and that includes the competitive intensity. And we're going to be thoughtful and smart, I think, about how we handle these business applications, and I don't want to put us in a box on this. I think the other thing I'd mention is we do tend to have a lag in those contracts with PP&S. And so when we have some inflation, we've always said that about -- around half of those contracts have a 90-day lag on and which hurts us on the upside and helps us on the downside. So we feel really good about our position. We think our quality, our delivery service and our Specialty applications command a premium in that space. But I don't want to make -- I don't think we want to make any statements, forward-looking statements about what we're going to be able to do with regard to pricing in that space. We have had a great track record, and I'd rather have you look backward at we've done rather than anticipate what we might be able to do when we've got factors beyond our control.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Sure, okay. Understood, Steve. And, Bob, in your commentary, when you talked about the Specialty Platform, I got the impression that you noted mix was negative. We talked that the Color segment mix was positive. Am I hearing that right?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Yes. I mean, for Color, mix was positive and was up -- really, the largest, I'd say, beneficiary of the pruning actions that we talked about. Within Engineered materials, that's where we did see a decline in demand associated with a couple of our higher-margin product lines, where we sell on the consumer products, as well as into solar- and nuclear-end markets. And that was a negative from a mix standpoint.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Okay. Yes, I was going to ask you to give us some examples of that mix shift. But it's consumer, nuclear and solar.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Yes, that's right.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

And look, and generally speaking, we're -- I think what we're seeing is it's not a loss of share as much as it is really a decline in demand in those specific end markets.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Sure, sure. Could certainly understand that. And then just my last question. Since we have this earnout, Bob, can you just remind us what the drivers behind that earnout are? Is it simply revenue or profit? And what's causing that? Because it's certainly not housing related, right?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Yes. I mean, unfortunately, we can't disclose the terms and conditions of the earnout structure and neither is Olin. So I can't say much about that. I can only say that when we sold the business in February, there were a set of expectations about performance over the course of the next 3 years. And to the extent that performance exceeds those expectations, both Olin and we benefit in the structure.

Steven Schwartz

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Okay. But potential for 2 more years of an earnout payment, right?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

That's correct.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Steve Schwartz of First Analysis

Right.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company.

Christopher Butler

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

Sticking with a similar subject, just to be clear. On a company basis, was product mix beneficial to you in the fourth quarter?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

On a total basis, I would articulate that mix was a benefit to us.

Christopher Butler

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

And if we're looking at the gross margin improvement year-over-year, how much of that would you attribute to product mix versus pricing versus raws?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

I really couldn't bifurcate that for you as well as I'm sure you'd like me to. I can tell you that as you look at gross margins expansion, it's -- it is driven by all 3 of those things. And when you break down the specific segments, you can see where that resides. And it's not just inside the Specialty Platform. We did have improvement in PP&S, as well as in POD.

Christopher Butler

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

And as we look at the volumes in the fourth quarter, the reports of others were that things have gotten soft and, definitely, in specific areas but rebounded in January. As we look at your business and as it pertains to some of the higher product mix products, have you seen a rebound in January and, thus far, in February?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

I mean, we can't say specifically what's happened in January. But just to reiterate some remarks that Steve made about 2012 outlook, I'd say that there does -- there are signs of the economy picking up a little steam. It's encouraging, and we are as well. And that's across a broad array of end markets.

Christopher Butler

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

And just finally, sorry if I missed it, but expectations for depreciation and CapEx this year.

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Christopher Butler of Sidoti & Company

Yes. CapEx should be between $50 million and $60 million. I would say that's higher than what you have historically said is our normal $40 million number, and that is because now it includes ColorMatrix. We have some incremental expenses on SAP implementations this year. And then finally, our investment in our Saudi joint venture will take place in 2012, so that gives you some of the delta there. And that's about 2/3 of what we expect depreciation to be in '12.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co.

Rosemarie Morbelli

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Steve, you were very cautious regarding the first half of 2012. Do you anticipate that the first half or, at least, the first quarter could actually be lower than the first quarter of 2011, or did I misread this?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

I didn't say that, Rosemarie.

Rosemarie Morbelli

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

No, I know you didn't. But I was trying to figure out what you actually did say.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Well, we're trying to build a -- first of all, we don't give guidance. But we're building a culture of winning in any context. In whatever the business environment is, it's our job to grow the business. And I don't see that changing. I will tell you, we had a great start to '11. And we've got a big base, and we've got a few expenses in Q1 that I outlined for you that weren't there last year, which makes it a little more difficult. But we're very confident in the year, and I'm not suggesting that we're going to have a down quarter. I don't -- I didn't infer or imply that. So if I did, I'd clarify it.

Rosemarie Morbelli

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

No, no. I was just trying to figure out how much of an impact you were anticipating and considering the difficult comparison as well. Could you give us a little more details on a totally different subject? On the ColorMatrix, you talked about leveraging each others’ strengths. Could you give us a little more details on that?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Yes, I'll start. And as we have said, this is not a cost play for us, but really, an opportunity for us to leverage each other's commercial and technical strengths. Most notably is, as Steve mentioned, ColorMatrix has a premier suite of additive technologies that we believe can be combined with our masterbatch technologies as well. So we see an opportunity for growth and expansion there. We also see an opportunity for ColorMatrix to benefit from our size and scale and to take advantage of those types of synergies. We just had, as Steve mentioned, our first global sales conference last week, which included the ColorMatrix sales associates. And I can tell you that the energy coming out of that meeting was as positive as we could hope for, in terms of what the sales growth opportunities are. So I'd say those are 2 key areas of synergy opportunity for us on the -- from a commercial standpoint.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

I think you also have to look at what's inside this portfolio. So yes, liquid color is a key element of it. Additives are a key element. But we also have fluoropolymers and silicon concentrates, which are businesses that are new to us and very related in something many of our customers buy. And as you get into these fluoropolymers, these are typically used in specialty applications that are exposing materials to high temperatures or chemicals or require a lot of wear resistance. So they would be used in automotive and healthcare and specialty wiring cable applications to improve performance. And segments like wire and cable, like fiber optic cables, for example, provide a great opportunity for synergy with PolyOne's global customer base. Wiring cable is a big account base for us, and we have not had these applications in our arsenal. Then you move into healthcare, and it includes applications like dental tools or tubing and catheters for healthcare, fuel hoses, films, tapes and wiring cable systems in automotive, and so -- as well as tapes and molded parts and connectors in electronic. These are all markets where we have a very strong presence, but this offering has not been part of our offering in the past. So we think there can be a tremendous amount of cross-selling in these products that really supplement our portfolio.

Rosemarie Morbelli

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

No, that is very helpful. And if I may ask a couple of questions. On the raw materials/pricing ratio, have you recovered all of your raw material cost, not necessarily the margin but the dollar amount? And do you think that with a 5% expectation of raw material inflation for 2012, you can go beyond just recovering the dollars, if that was the case?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Well, let me take the first stab at that, and then I'll let Bob who has more facts and data to work with. It's never been our intention simply to recover the increases. We believe that when you produce something, there's a certain margin that goes along with that, and there's a certain profitability expectation. And if you continue just to try and capture your rate of inflation, by definition, you are declining your gross margins, and we have not been doing that. We have been doing better than that. And that remains our intention, because we want to take some of that money and we want to give it to shareholders. We want to take some of that money and invest it in innovation for our customers and continue to provide the kind of services that are extraordinary that we're giving our customers today. So I think we've done that, and I think that the numbers play that out if you look at the last couple of years of inflation. And it would be -- it is our stated strategy and intent to capture pricing and to be able to hold or expand margins through whatever types of inflation or deflationary periods we would encounter. Bob?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Yes. I mean, I would add that when you look at year-over-year gross margins at 16.6% in both years, I would say that's flat, driven primarily by some of the mix issues that we've experienced with Engineered Materials, as I described to that before, having the most significant negative effect. But beyond that, I think we did a very good job of recovering those costs.

Rosemarie Morbelli

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Yes. I was asking the question because you are also working on efficiencies and on changing the mix and so on until they were more than just price versus raw materials in that gross margin. And lastly, if I may, on the healthcare side. What kind of growth rate do you expect in 2012? And what do you see on the solar outlook, if you don't mind?

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Yes, it's sort of 2 questions, and it will be our last because we're out of time. I mean, solar is very difficult to predict right now. I think it's going to be very challenging for us to have -- I don't see us growing solar in 2012. It's a marketplace we don't want to abandon. It's an important one. I think I look at it a little broadly, a little bigger, and that would be alternative energy. And I think there'll be multiple different application points for us in the alternative energy space, because I think alternative energy is here to stay. Solar is one of those that works really well economically if there are subsidies. And when those subsidies dry up, there are sort of limits to the sustainability of it. So we're going to lump those altogether, and I would say that the specific aspect of solar will be challenging but alternative energy will continue to grow. And the other question was related to the healthcare market expectations. I would simply say, we continue to believe in this market, and we are investing heavily in this marketplace. I think our record speaks for itself. I would expect it to grow at rates much faster than the core for PolyOne in 2012 and beyond. We continue to beef up resources. Our brand is getting polished each and every day. We're participating in trade shows. We had one last week. And we're seeing tremendous amount of interest in the uniqueness of our portfolio and our offering to that segment. Bob?

Robert Patterson

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Nothing else.

Stephen Newlin

Analyst · Rosemarie Morbelli of Gabelli & Co

Okay. I hope I answered your question, Rosemarie. So I'd like to thank all of you for your continued interest in PolyOne, and I want to wish you all the best in this new year. We're looking forward to updating you on our 2012 progress during our first quarter conference call scheduled for early May and, hopefully, at the Investor Day as well later that same month. Thank you all very much. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.