Eric Wintemute
Analyst · Gerard Sweeney with ROTH Capital
Thank you, Tim, and thank all of you for joining us today. Moving to Slide 3. We have listed the agenda for today's call. But first, I'd like to start off by acknowledging the terrific work of the AMVAC team to take care of our customers, increase prices to manage inflation, safely operating our factories at very high levels and continue to drive our precision, agriculture, innovations forward. We have delivered excellent financial results and expect to maintain our momentum in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we repurchased 1.2 million shares of our stock during the third quarter, indicating our confidence and the strength of our business. Simply put, we are managing our business well in challenging times. Let's move on to Slide 4 to discuss our top line performance for the first 9 months of the year. Generally speaking, continued high commodity prices for corn, soybean and wheat are supporting a strong farm economy. With respect to domestic crop, we're up 20% year-to-date, led by Dacthal which is used for wheat control on high-value crops and our cotton products Bidrin for pest control and Folex are harvested due to increased cotton acres and favorable weather. We experienced higher sales of Aztec for the 9-month period despite an inventory shortage during Q3. In addition, we recorded strong sales of our soil fumigant products, in spite of the drought conditions in the west, due largely to price increases. With respect to non-crop, sales are down 11% year-to-date due primarily to reduced U.S. consumer demand for lawn and garden products. On the positive side, sales to professional applicators rose with more consumers returning to work. We are well positioned with our mosquito adulticide following Hurricane Ian. Also, we are tracking tropical storm Nicole, which is expected to make landfall late tomorrow night. While forecasted to have lower winds than Ian, Nicole is predicted to travel at 9 miles per hour, which should result in considerable precipitation in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Our international business was up 14% year-to-date, led by Agrinos, which recorded sales growth of 55% and gross profit, up 60%; and Brazil, which grew by 42% due in part to sales of our nematicide counter. Further, net sales in Mexico grew 26% and gross profit grew 22% with strong sales of our proprietary soil fumigants. Further, our Central American business recorded sales growth at 11%, led by products used on pineapples and bananas. And finally, our Australia business recorded sales up 11% and gross margin improvement from 35% to 39%. Before revisiting our full year outlook and taking a first glance of '23, let's first focus on current conditions as they will have an impact on both short and midterm performance. As I mentioned earlier, high commodity prices arising from scarcity and global food supply, coupled with strong demand are driving a strong farm economy. Turning to Slide 5, we note the upward trend of corn prices over the past 2 years. As you can see, 2 years ago, before the '21 season, corn was at $4.05 per bushel; 1 year ago, it rose to $5.59 per bushel; and now it is at $6.80 per bushel. That's a 68% rise over the past 2 years. We see a similar trend with soybean prices over the same period. At this time in 2020, soybeans were $10.86 a bushel; 1 year ago, they rose to $12.05 per bushel; and now they're at $14.52 per bushel. This is a 34% increase over 2 years. Higher commodity prices tend to drive procurement activity for both crop inputs and planting and harvesting equipment. However, procurement trends by distribution channel appeared to be evening out over the course of 2022, which began at a torrid pace in the first quarter and returned to greater normalcy over the second and third quarters. Despite this level of investment at farm gate, channel inventories for AMVAC's products are at low levels. And our distribution partners are bullish on the prospects for the 2023 planting season. Let me show you Slide 6, which will further highlight this point. As you see here, we're experiencing very high profits in the state of Iowa. And this is a calculation of revenues, cost and profitability, tracking back to 1970. At the high point in 2012, we are currently about $200 an acre better than that, which was our previous best year. That translates into about $2.5 billion above 2012 and nearly $7 billion in profits for Iowa corn brewers. Again, illustrating why I think our team is very bullish on the U.S. farm economy. It's never less useful to consider other factors in forecasting in the market. Inflation becomes a significant driver in global economy and is affecting near all industries. As you can see on Slide 7, the Fed has been raising interest rates aggressively over the past 7 months. Because the Fed took comparatively early action to raise those rates, the dollar had enjoyed a favorable exchange rate against many currencies. However, many other countries followed suit. And we are seeing certain currencies regain lost ground against the dollar. With a strong dollar and high commodity prices to-date, the farm economy has been able to stand inflation largely through price increases. At American Vanguard, we're enjoying a second straight year of strong demand for which we've been able to build and sell sufficient inventory at improved margins. Having 6 North American factories as depicted on Slide 8, we have been able to make in-season adjustments to manage fluctuating demand. These manufacturing assets have been essential in our ability to operate with autonomy. Further, while the supply chain has not fully returned to the stable state of 3 years ago, we are seeing a drop in freight prices and the availability of both shipping containers and vessels are improving. However, some raw materials that originate in countries affected by pandemic restrictions or geopolitical considerations, for example, phosphorus, are affecting the availability and price of some of our key intermediate products. We are taking all available measures to ensure that we can order and receive our necessary inputs in time to meet demand. But I can tell you that this is as much an art as it is a science. In short, the upcycle for the agricultural sector that began in 2021 is expected to continue through '23. Geopolitical activity is lifting commodity prices, giving growers added incentive to peer both crop inputs and equipment. Further, our positioning of products and the distribution channel should enable us to maintain strong brand value. Thus, while there may be contravalent factors such as inflation, record low water levels in the Mississippi River and potential glitches in the supply chain, we believe that we are poised to continue our strong performance. In short term, we are targeting 2022 full performance to be unchanged from our prior call. So let's turn to Slide 9. This is our '22 performance target scorecard. You've seen this before. And over the last 9 months, we have seen our revenue growth at 13%; gross margins at 41%; operating expenses at 32%; interest 23% below '21, however, we are expecting with the interest slides that we just showed to have higher interest costs in Q4. Tax rate for the 9 months at 30%, we're expecting that to take down 2% to 3%, to 27% to 28% at the end of the year. Debt to EBITDA, we're currently at 1.9x, we are expecting that to decrease for the end of the year since -- any further acquisitions. We have, I should say, between stock repurchase and dividends, spent about $35 million so far this year. Net income is up 71% for the year, and EBITDA is up 30%. So with that, David, I'll turn this over to you for financial analysis.