Sean J. Breslin
Analyst · Macquarie
Thanks, Tim. As Tim mentioned, I will comment on portfolio performance during the quarter, current trends and provide a brief update on our transaction activity. Starting with our same-store results for the quarter, year-over-year total rental revenue increased 4.9%, consisting of a 4.7% increase in rate and a 20 basis point increase in occupancy. Same-store expenses increased 3.3% and were primarily driven by higher property taxes, utilities and insurance costs. We continue to feel pressure on property taxes from local municipalities, especially in suburban New York, Seattle and the D.C. Metro area, where increases in both rate and assessed value are projected to drive double-digit property tax growth in 2013. In terms of regional performance, Seattle and Northern California continue to produce strong results, generating year-over-year total rental revenue increases of 8.9% and 8.7%, respectively. These regions also produced sequential revenue growth of about 1%. Job growth remains robust in Seattle and continues to fuel apartment demand. Boeing has a healthy backlog of orders for new aircraft, as airlines work to replace aging fleets across the globe. In the tech space, Google recently announced that it was doubling the size of its campus in Kirkland, which should add about 1,000 jobs to the area. The Seattle apartment market is also benefiting from an extremely low inventory of single-family homes for sale. Current inventory is at a 15-year low and reflects about 1 month supply, which is putting pressure on single-family pricing. Median price of a single-family home has risen close to 20% over the past 12 months. Northern California, like Seattle, has experienced job growth well in excess of the national average over the past 6 months. Facebook, Salesforce, LinkedIn and Samsung have all committed adding jobs or in increasing office space over the last several months. Also like Seattle, Northern California single-family market is very tight. But the median price for single-family homes and condominiums up 20% to 25% in the Bay area markets over the last 12 months. Moving down the California coast, Southern California produced year-over-year rental revenue growth of 4.5%. Trailing 12 months employment growth is now north of 2% in L.A., Orange County and San Diego. Continued hiring by the entertainment industry, which has added jobs at a tremendous pace over the past 12 months, is leading the growth in Los Angeles. In the greater Orange County region, job gains are pretty broad based and include hiring in the entertainment sector led by Disney; financial services, including Bank of America; health care, including UC Irvine Health and Kaiser Permanente; and education. San Diego job growth picked up significantly over the past year and was led by the return of several Navy ships, but has also been supported by above-average growth in the business services, biotech and construction sectors. Steady job growth, multi-family supply that is less than 1% of existing stock and double-digit growth in home prices should all support healthy apartment fundamentals in Southern California over the next several years. Shifting to the East Coast. The Mid-Atlantic produced year-over-year total rental revenue growth of 1.5% during the quarter. Job growth in the D.C. Metro area is essentially flat, and sequestration has resulted in some furloughs across the region. In some submarkets, our current residents on the government's payroll are less willing to sign longer-term leases given the uncertainty regarding additional furloughs. We expect new supply to peak in the second half of 2013 and lessen a bit in 2014 before returning closer to the longer-term norm in 2015. Development economics are increasingly challenged within the region, and the oversupplied market is well known by both construction lenders and equity investors, so new starts should be significantly more constrained over the next year. The metro New York/New Jersey region is producing our strongest results on the East Coast with year-over-year rental revenue growth of nearly 5% during the quarter. New York City tech led recovery continues and is supported by job growth in the education, health services and retail sectors. And while new supply continues to be delivered in certain submarkets, it has not had a significant impact on rent growth or occupancy rates. Finally, the New England region produced year-over-year total rental revenue growth of 3.2%, reflecting 4% in Boston and 1.7% in Connecticut. Job growth in Boston continues to be steady and is relatively consistent with the U.S. average of roughly 1% over the past 6 months. On the supply side, most new construction is concentrated in the urban submarkets of Boston and will be delivered in late 2013 and 2014. Developers are beginning to consider more suburban sites in Boston. But the pipeline of suburban development is still relatively thin as a percentage of existing stock as compared to the more -- as compared to the urban submarkets. The greater Fairfield market continues to be relatively weak with essentially no job growth in the past 6 months and supply that has ticked up over the past year. Supply is particularly plentiful on the waterfront in Stamford and will likely be heavy for the next 12 to 24 months. Moving to recent performance trends. Availability for the quarter averaged 5.2% and turnover was 41%, down about 300 basis points from Q1 2012. The reduced turnover rate resulted from fewer move outs due to rent increases, particularly in Northern California. Move outs due to home purchase were 14% in Q1, an increase of about 70 basis points compared to Q1 2012. Same-store portfolio occupancy is currently running in the low to mid-96% range. And consistent with seasonal patterns, rental rates are ramping up across most of the portfolio. Committed renewals for April are around 5%. Renewal offers for May and June are in the 6% range, and July is likely to go out around 7%. In addition, average market rent for the same-store portfolio has increased roughly 5% to 6% over the past 60 days as availability has trended below 5%. In terms of the recently acquired Archstone assets, the portfolio is currently outperforming our revenue expectations by 2% to 3%, supported primarily by better-than-expected average rental rates, but also a modestly higher occupancy rate. It is a little too early to comment on operating expenses, which often have a lot of noise in the first quarter following an acquisition, but we don't have any material concerns at this point in time. I'll turn now to our transaction activity during the quarter. In terms of AvalonBay dispositions, we sold Avalon to Decoverly located in Gaithersburg, Maryland for about $135 million, which represented a low 5% cap rate and economic gain of $63 million in an un-leveraged IRR of 14.5% over the approximately 15-year holding period. The initial phase of this community was purchased in 1995 and redeveloped by us a couple of years ago, and we developed the second phase in 2007. We also sold 2 communities located in Arlington, Virginia, that required as part of the Archstone acquisition. These communities traded a low 5% cap rate as well. We sold 2 Fund communities during the quarter. Avalon Yerba Buena of Fund I property located in the south of market, submarket of San Francisco, sold for $103 million and represented a residential cap rate in the high 3s. Avalon Rothbury, our Fund II asset, located in Gaithersburg, Maryland, sold for $40 million and a cap rate in the mid-5% range. In addition to the Q1 activity, we have another couple hundred million of dispositions either in marketing or under contract, including 2 Fund I properties. We have not identified attractive acquisition opportunities, so we don't currently have any communities in our acquisition pipeline. The transaction market remains healthy with cap rates generally ranging from 4% to 5% on the West Coast and 4.5% to 5.5% on the East Coast with the exception of New York City, where assets tend to trade in the low 4% range depending on how you value any tax abatement. Demand for large core assets in coastal markets is being driven by institutional investors, while smaller core assets and value-add opportunities are the sweet spot for private leveraged buyers. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury trading back down to roughly 1.7% on a yield basis, private buyers can source 10-year secured debt in a 3.5% to 3.75% range from the GSEs and be inside them 20 to 30 basis points via balance sheet lender. As a result, cap rates in the 4% to 5% range offer positive leverage and attractive returns on equity relative to other investments. If you exclude the Archstone transaction, the number of one-off trades in our markets is down approximately 15% in Q1 2013 as compared to Q1 2012, while volume in other markets is up close to 20%. Given the limited supply of products for sale and the attractive cap rates we are realizing in the transaction market, dispositions remain an attractive source of capital relative to other alternatives. As a result, we have elected to revise our acquisition and disposition plan for the year. We're now expecting acquisition activity in the range of $150 million, a reduction of $150 million from our initial outlook, and dispositions of roughly $900 million, including the Archstone communities that were already sold, an increase of $200 million from our initial outlook. Now I'll turn the call back to Tom for some other remarks.