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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Analyst Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. [Operator Instructions]. Please also note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
Thanks very much, Judith and I'll start with the Safe Harbor statement and then we'll get into itinerary. Certain statements contained in this document, other than statements of historical facts including, without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the gold mining industry, expectations regarding gold prices, production, total cash costs, all-in sustaining costs, all-in costs, cost savings and other operating results, return on equity, productivity improvements, growth prospects and outlook of our operations, individually or in the aggregate, including the achievement of project milestones, commencement and completion of commercial operations of certain of our exploration and production projects and the completions of acquisitions, dispositions or joint venture transactions, our liquidity and capital resources and capital expenditures and the outcome and consequence of any potential or pending litigations or regulatory proceedings or environmental health and safety issues are forward-looking statements regarding our operations, economic performance and financial condition. These forward-looking statements or forecasts involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and forecasts are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of the mine status, changes in the economic, social, political and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in regulatory environments and other government actions, including environmental approvals, fluctuations in gold prices and exchange rates, the outcome of pending or future litigation proceedings, and business and operational risk management. For a discussion of these factors, refer to our Annual Reports on Form 20-F filed with…
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
Thank you, Stewart. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It gives us great pleasure to stand before you today and present our fourth quarter 2015 and full year results. As you’d have seen from the results, the highlights include consistency around meeting our production guidance, beating our cost estimates, delivering free cash flow and a sharp reduction in net debt levels, all of which have happened despite the falling gold prices and some very good Brownfields exploration successes, which we have seen within our portfolio. You’ll recall that since 2013, we had implemented a number of initiatives and self-help measures and these results show cumulative benefits of these measures and efforts coming through. Starting with our strategy, our strategy which was launched in 2013, has at its core, delivering sustainable cash flow improvements and returns, which in turn we believe will drive shareholder value in both bear and bull markets. This is supported by five simple business objectives, that have done the job well for the past three years. First; strong foundation built on safe production, best people and a well enshrined sustainability model. Second; placing enormous importance on balance sheet strength and flexibility. Third; focus and delivery on production improvements, cost management and sound capital discipline, then improving our portfolio quality consistently and remembering that mining is a long-term gain and therefore value adding growth remains important and therefore ensuring that we keep the long-term optionality firmly on the radar at an affordable cost. We’ll outline some of our successors later on during the presentation. If we can move to Slide number 7, which shows the map of where the operations are. As you can see we are one of the gold industry's geographically diversified company with around 25% of our production coming from South Africa and 3 times that…
CS
Chris Sheppard
Analyst
Thanks Venkat. So, some three months ago, as I stated the key issues that needed attention were our unsatisfactory safety performance that saw unprecedented impacts on the business and the constraints we saw in immediately stope-able face-length, which reduced our mining flexibility. I was also clear that if we succeeded in addressing these issues we will see an uplift in production performance this year that will take much of the fourth quarter to recover from these stoppages and challenges with the full benefit only evident in the new year. Turning to Slide 12, I am pleased to be able to show that quarter four saw our all-in sustaining costs improve to ZAR451,000 a kilogram, you will see here a double margin kicker with the improved costs taking place against the backdrop of an average gold price that has climbed to around ZAR505,000 a kilogram. This performance was underpinned by higher gold sales as opposed to pure production during the quarter and was also -- and also the move out of the higher winter power terrace we see each year. You will also be aware that we saw the benefit of the weak exchange rates. So to be clear that the Rand only really fell sharply in the last few weeks of the year. We will be the beneficiaries this year of higher dollar gold price and the significantly weaker Rand. Turning to Slide 13, regarding the operational performance of our South African operations, the improvements in safety achieved during the quarter, saw a return of stability and consistency to our operations, though it's worth noting that the real recovery from the safety interruptions that hit quarter three came at the end of quarter four as we have flagged. That’s why you see similar production levels quarter-on-quarter. Mponeng improved its production…
RL
Ron Largent
Analyst
Thanks, Chris and good morning. I will provide some detail regarding our quarter four 2015 operating results for Continental Africa, Australia and Americas region and then discuss some of the work streams that are underway to develop the optionality within this portfolio. As usual, I will not go into the detail of each individual operating asset as the detailed results are contained within the quarterly report. On the all-in sustaining cost slide, as I stated last October, we believe this slide tells a compelling story around the outcomes that have been achieved by focusing on the operations and the relentless driving of efficiencies. Now with three years of data to support us, we can illustrate not only the effectiveness but also the sustainability of the process we have implemented. We commenced the project to improve our efficiencies throughout the International operations in late quarter four 2012. As this graph illustrates, we saw our first step change in early 2013 and then a second step change in 2014. Now we have put together four continuous quarters in 2015 that indicated another step change to less than $850 all-in sustaining costs. We believe the foundation that has allowed the improvements shown in this slide have been ingrained in our operating framework and have set the foundation for the next step in operational efficiencies. Overall the International ops which account for somewhere between 70% and 75% of AngloGold Ashanti production have continue to improve margins even with a reduced price. The next slide I first presented in quarter two 2015 to illustrate our journey compared to the global gold industry. Our objective was and is to continue to move our outcomes to the left on this slide. As you can see, it's been a transformational move for the company from the highest quartile…
GE
Graham Ehm
Analyst
Thanks, Ron. Today I will cover our 2015 results as well as exploration results and I'll provide an update on some studies and projects. I am starting on Slide 23. Our reserves at the end of 2015 were 51.7 million ounces compared to 57.7 million ounces 12 months ago. Reserves are calculated at the same gold prices last year or $1,100 an ounce. Key changes have been the Cripple Creek sale and depletions of 4.3 million ounces. Half of 2015's depletions have been offset by gains at the Iduapriem, Obuasi, Sunrise Dam and across the other assets, as a result of exploration success and mine optimization. Our resources at the end of 2015 were 207.8 million ounces compared to 232 million ounces 12 months ago. For 2015, we have reduced the resource gold price from $1,600 an ounce to $1,400 an ounce. Key changes have been the disposal of Cripple Creek & Victor and Mongbwalu and depletions of 4.9 million ounces. There were gains at Obuasi and Sunrise Dam offset by reductions at Geita in South Africa and at Colosa. Now turning to Sunrise Dam, Sunrise Dam continues to show strong potentials. Over the last few years the mine has fully transitioned to underground mining and the underground mining has increased from around 1 million tonnes per annum to 2.8 million tonnes per annum. Mining costs have come down considerably from well over $100 per tonne to $45 per tonne. Exploration has continued to be successful and as recently returned 11.7 meters at 16 grams per tonne, 4.75 meters at 350 grams per tonne and 10 meters at 15.7 grams per tonne from Cosmo Vogue area. Deeper the Carey Shear continues to grow with recent drilling. The strategy being pursued at Sunrise Dam is to increase the milling rate to…
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst
Thank you, Graham. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. As you've heard from Venkat and my other colleagues, we continue to deliver on our self-help measures reflected in the strong set of results again beating market consensus views. These improved metrics together with lower debt levels have resulted in improved free cash flow generation in the Group providing the much needed flexibility in the current volatile environment. I'll now talk through our fourth quarter's and full year's performance and conclude on the outlook for 2016. Slide 32, our geographic diversification continues to differentiate AngloGold Ashanti from the majority of its peer group providing resilience in a volatile market. With the exception of the dollarized environment in Continental Africa, we realized benefits which cushioned the impact of the lower gold price in South Africa, Brazil, Argentina and Australia. Together these comprised the remaining two-thirds of our production. We note that even though the gold price has declined by 8% in the past year, on a production weighted basis the Group has realized a 30% increase in the gold price when taking our currency exposure into account. We remain sensitive to changes in our currency baskets and the oil price and we issue the following sensitivities with a health warning. For every $10 per barrel change in the average Brent crude oil price, it will impact our cash cost by approximately $8 per ounce and for every 1% change in our currency basket it will impact our cash cost by approximately $6 an ounce. Slide 33, despite the falling gold price since the fourth quarter of 2012, we have been able to steadily reduce both our all-in sustaining costs and all-in costs per ounce through relentless focus on cost controls, portfolio improvements and operational excellence. All-in sustaining costs have been reduced by…
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
Thank you, Christine. Turning to Slide number 41, as you can see for the past three years, we have quarter-by-quarter, brick by brick built a strong track record of consistent performance and delivery and that’s being despite formidable headwinds. This slide tracks our actual production and cost performance versus our market guidance and as you will see we have for four consecutive quarters either met or beaten our production and cost targets. Looking at it on an annual basis for '13, '14 and '15, this is also the first time that AngloGold Ashanti has met its annual production and cost targets for three consecutive years. Moving to Slide 42. Our to-do list for this year is a busy one too. Top priority is to turn around safety and operational performance at our South African operations where we are targeting a 10% year-on-year improvement. We’ll continue to target efficiency and cost improvements within the business to further improve margins and cash flow, which will be applied prudently to scale-back debt. These efforts will not slack despite the recent improvements seen in the gold price or the weakening of the exchange rates. Despite currently not being in production, Obuasi will occupy a disproportionately higher weighting in our list, wherein the next steps include optimizing further our feasibility studies and securing the full package of regulatory consents and approvals needed before we seek to develop these assets through a joint venture. Despite the recent security setback that Graham elaborated on, given the most recent proactive feedback received from the highest levels within the Ghanaian government, I’m cautiously optimistic of demonstrating further progress this year on this large reserve asset that is highly geared to the gold price. Looking at our portfolio on Slide 43, our job is to manage and improve the quality…
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
Chris, we are ready for questions.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much, sir. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from Christopher [indiscernible] from Debtwire. Please go ahead.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
My name is Christopher and I am an reporter with Debtwire. You mentioned reducing your net debt by a further 30% on the year in 2016; I'd be very interested in knowing exactly how you plan to undertake that? And that's my first question. My second question is, I also wanted to find out if the company for its maybe its [indiscernible] more than anything else is planning to raise any new debt or what it plans to do in order to or may as well as might be undertaking either this year or the coming years to finance any new assets coming on-stream? Thank you.
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst
Thank you, Christopher, it's Christine speaking, I'll answer your questions. I think importantly that we spoke to the debt reduction we were referring to 2015 that we have reduced the debt stage for related levels by approximately 30%. I think what we did of course said we would like to reduce the cost of debt in the Group at a level was to that we would like to optimize the interest bond and we are exploring the various options in that regard. I did speak to the high deals volumes and at the end of July is being if that option comes back certainly see that as an opportunity. But at this point in time, [indiscernible] market conditions as you know it has changed compared to last year and we certainly are keeping all options open in that regard.
GE
Graham Ehm
Analyst
And then Christopher on your Ghana question, we have no plans to raise any fresh debt for anything in Ghana or any other projects that are on the sites at the movement.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay got it. One thing though, you said that you would like to reduce the cost of your debt, can you indicate what is it now and what you're aiming for?
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst
Well, we have given you guidance on the finance costs for next year and I think it's $175 million on the cash flow on the income statement and $190 million on the income statement -- sorry $175 million cash flow, $190 million income statement. I think clearly we'd like to reduce that even further and hence you know we certainly have to keep you informed as we go forward as regarding that.
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
Thanks, Christopher.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
No. What I meant was do you still -- how you guys are looking to reduce the costs exactly?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
Christopher, we're just going to have to take another question on the line. I think we don't give the average cost of debt.
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst
That's okay. It's about 5%, [indiscernible], average cost update.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay fair enough. And any idea how much you like to bring that down to?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
Chris we're going to go onto the next question here, I think we've got a couple in the line.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir. Our next question is from [indiscernible]. Please go ahead.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
I was wondering if you could -- it's my understanding that we're going to see elections in the DRC this year and I was wondering if you still -- if you could give us an update on the situation and if those elections were to become a bit more problematic than expected whether you expect any disruption to your Kibali operations or any potential changes in the royalty regime in the DRC?
GE
Graham Ehm
Analyst
We are aware that the election is coming up towards the end of the year and the general intents of the current incumbent president. The operation is being proactive in that regard and in the Orientale province, that province by the government is divided into three and the local governor -- the present intention of the government is to put a strong local governor in place and likewise in terms of the security or police force in that area to also put a strong leader in place more or less to be proactive and on the front foot should there be any possibility of disruption. Overall we don’t expect any disruptions in Kibali. Our security intelligence is sophisticated, that's well developed and that's well communicated in partnership with the government. So we're not expecting disruptions even though there might be in the country leading up to the election.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Got you. And I had a quick question for Christine, you mentioned that you have a focus on reducing interest costs and I am just wondering on how you guys think of your capital structure because you obviously have the 20-20 bond which is 8.5% yield but you also have a long duration bond which trades at a significant discount to par. And on a kind of yield adjusted basis could be probably at similar levels in terms of the interest costs savings. So, how would you look to optimize the interest though in relation to these two instruments?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
I think let me fix it up actually because at the end of the day we look at all opportunities on a completely weighted basis to see which gives the best return for our shareholders. What we don’t want to comment out here is which bond, when and how much we'll be actually looking at this at this stage. We like to keep all of the options open when we assess that and we have got to compare it with other return opportunities that provides to shareholders.
UA
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
All right, thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. Our next question is from Harry Mateer from Barclays. Please go ahead.
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst
Hi guys two from me. So I guess the first just another balance sheet item but I know Moody's is undertaking a broad review of the mining sector, not just a Ashanti in particular. But given you have reached your net debt target is there any sense you can give us for your discussions with the agency and your expectations for the rating there?
CR
Christine Ramon
Analyst
Look we do have regular discussions with both rating agencies and as you have referred to that we did have placed the commodity fix on a negative outlook. So, we are due for a ratings review in the near term with the both ratings agencies. I think quite importantly what differentiates us from other gold companies in particular is our exposure to currencies. About two-thirds of our production is actually exposed to currencies which certainly mitigates the impacts of the gold price. I think quite importantly as we saw the 30% net debt reduction in our business and we've also seen the benefits of lower costs coming through. And yes, we’ve had the benefit of currencies in our overall process but I think quite importantly what we've been able to demonstrate is the efficiency improvements in our business as well as the flexibility in our business. So, we've got financial flexibility and I think certainly this stands us in good stead for the ratings review.
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst
Okay thanks very much. And then secondly can you just talk a bit about the M&A environment what you are seeing? Whether there any assets at this point that would be of interest to the company and if you thing that the big asset spreads are getting to a point where there might be some opportunities for Ashanti to use some of this balance sheet flexibility and free cash flow to actually deploy into acquisitions?
SV
Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan
Analyst
I'll pick that one up actually Harry. From our point as you would have seen from the presentation we've outlined now. We are seeing very good Brownfield opportunities in our own backyard and we have highlighted a few here. One is in respect of Siguiri in Guinea. We have highlighted on what prospect Sunrise Dam holds and Brazil holds. So, these are just sort of illustrative in that regard. In addition to that we are looking at other options from within the portfolio itself. So, there is really no need to go fishing for M&A. I think the best return is the one which is right next to our own backyard in terms of actually getting that into the production machine and delivering the cash flows from it.
HM
Harry Mateer
Analyst
Okay. Got it. Thanks very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. Gentlemen we have no further questions at the moment, if you would like to make some closing comments.
SB
Stewart Bailey
Analyst
All right folks thanks very much. And thank you everybody for making the time today and we will be in touch and certainly with the schedule for the next quarter's reporting under the new regime. Thank you very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen on behalf of AngloGold Ashanti that concludes this afternoon's conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.