Peter Gundermann
Analyst · Dougherty & Company
Thank you, Debbie, and good morning, everybody. We're going to talk through our Q1 results, which were largely as expected and similar to the preceding 2 quarters. We're going to take a revised look at our 2017 expectations, which have been downgraded somewhat since our initial guidance. And we're going to talk briefly an acquisition we announced in the first -- just after the first quarter closed of Custom Control Concepts, a company that we will refer to regularly as CCC going forward. So first quarter, largely as expected, consistent with the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2016, and we expect at the end of the day, when we look back, it will be our weakest quarter of 2017. Revenue was $152 million, slightly below our comparator quarter of Q1 2016 but above -- about even sequentially with the third quarter last year when we had revenues of $155 million and the fourth quarter when we had revenues of $154 million. Aerospace sales were just under $137 million, which was up from Q3, which was -- and up from Q4, but below our second quarter record from last year when we had sales of $142 million. Test sales were $15.6 million, which represents a low watermark in recent years. Bottom line consolidated for the quarter, net income was $11.6 million, 7.6% of sales, diluted earnings per share of $0.38, about even with our comparator quarter of 2016. The effective tax rate helped our consolidated results at 25.2% for the quarter compared to 30.5% a year ago. E&D expenses were $22.9 million, 15% of sales. We expect that percentage should drop in the coming quarters as the sales volume increases. Bookings consolidated were $147 million, up about $10 million from both of the previous two quarters; a book-to-bill of about 0.97, leaving us at the end of the quarter with a backlog of $253 million. Moving to our Aerospace segment specifically, revenues were $137 million, 90% of our total, about even with last year, down about 1.2%. It was our second quarter of pretty solid volume increases since our low point of Q3 2016. Operating profit for our Aerospace segment was $19.8 million, 14.4% of sales, up from 13.5% in the comparator quarter one year ago. Bookings were a little light, $122.8 million, a book-to-bill of 0.9. Usually at this point, when I'm talking about segments, I go through the tables that we present in our press release. But given that we're only talking about the first quarter at this point, and I'm kind of hesitant to draw big trends on one quarter, we're not going to go through it in detail. But I do want to call your attention to a couple of lines. And I'm talking specifically about the tables on page seven of our press release. Our commercial transport sales, on the top chart, top table there, we're $109 million, down about 3% from our total in the comparator quarter a year ago when we had sales of about $113 million. And on the bottom table, Electrical Power & Motion sales in the first quarter were $72.4 million, down about 4% from $75.4 million one year ago. One of the trends that we're observing in the business is more weaker-than-expected wide-body conditions out there. Our commercial transport sales in that top table are largely weighted towards commercial transport sales and same with our Electrical Power & Motion in the lower table, largely weighted towards wide-body sales. And there are a few dynamics that we want to talk through that are affecting our revised budget. We'll get to our forecast a little bit later at the end here. But what we're noticing is that not only are wide-body production rates slightly down and expected to stay down, but the aftermarket element that we actively participate in also seems to be leveling out and stabilizing. We've seen strong growth over the last few years in wide-body markets. And for a variety of reasons, at the moment, it seems like we're in a soft patch. It's a long discussion as to how that came to be and how it might turn around, but it's pretty widely known that production rates, especially of 777 and 380 and 330, and in particular, 747 have slowed over the last year. But it also appears that the aftermarket element that we participate in with those kinds of airframes is also slowing kind of at the same time. So whereas we've seen a lot of growth in wide-bodies, at the moment, we are seeing that flattening out a little bit. There are a couple of other dynamics going on in the aerospace which we're struggling with a little bit. One has to do with some schedule slides. We have a ramp built into our expectations for this year. As often happens, the actual entry point of new programs can be a little bit hard to pin down and predict in advance. When we we're putting our initial numbers together as the year turns, back in December, January, we had certain expectations of timing. And those timings, to some extent, have slid back to the point that we feel we need to make adjustments to our forecast. So that's the second element. The third element, which is, I think, generally recognized in the industry, is that there's been a lot of price down pressure starting at the top of the food chain, so to speak, with the OEMs and filtering through the supply base. And we've largely been immune to that up till now. We've certainly seen some pressures. But we're continuing to see pressures that we think will begin to affect us as we move more through this year. It's not a totally terrible situation in that the -- in exchange for these negotiated exchanges, we get certain things that we want like longer-term agreements. And we also have the opportunity, we think, to apply pressure to our supply base to protect margins. It's kind of a standard thing when a company is forced to reconsider some of its pricing. It's forced at -- or it takes the opportunity at the same time to look at its supply base and see what it can do to rationalize and protect itself from a financial perspective. So we're facing these 3 things and we'll try to quantify them for you in our revised budget when we get there at the end of this presentation. But these are pretty standard, I think, elements going on in the industry. The one thing that is maybe a little bit new is the aftermarket and the wide-body side that we are finding it's a little bit weaker than we expected. And I also want to point out though, while we're talking about these things, that it's not a change in circumstances from a competitive standpoint. It's not as though big programs we were counting on are being canceled. It's as though we're suffering any kind of downgrade with our customer relationships. We think, in general, we're very well positioned. We continue to be in a very nice part of the business. And we think long term, we wouldn't trade places with too many companies that we know. But in the short term, we're dealing with some of these issues on the wide-body side and pricing and scheduling of new programs. The last thing to talk about on Aerospace is our -- the acquisition we announced, the Custom Control Concepts or CCC. CCC is a direct competitor -- was a direct competitor of ours in the VVIP market. VVIP markets are private aircraft or head of state aircraft, commercial transports converted to very, very large and expensive business jets, simplistically speaking. And Custom Control Concepts and our PGA operation both provide in-flight entertainment and cabin management systems for these types of aircraft. This purchase was a little bit of a contrarian purchase to be frank. The market is weak today in part because of global events, the drop in the price of oil, turmoil in the Middle East, for example, and also, life cycles of the commercial airplanes that buyers use for this market. 777, for example, is in between, waiting 777X and 350's just getting out, for example. So it's a little bit of a market that's very slow right now, but we expect, overtime, it will rebound. And when it does, we think that a proper coordination and alignment of what we're doing at PGA and what we can do at CCC could make us a pretty strong and profitable competitor. But for the time being, just to quantify it, this year, 2017, we're expecting incremental revenues from CCC in the neighborhood of about $12 million, and our purchase price was about $12 million also. We also do not expect significant income statement impact in 2017, but we're hopeful for positive results as we move forward and as that VVIP market responds. Moving over to our Test Systems segment. Our first quarter revenues were $15.6 million. That's down substantially about 27% from where we were a year ago and made up about 10% of our consolidated sales. The segment on that low volume was just above breakeven with an operating profit of about 2% of sales so Q1 was essentially a low watermark for our Test Systems segment in recent years. That's the lowest revenue, lowest profit performance we've had. We expect bigger things though, and bookings in the first quarter are an indication of that. Bookings were $24.2 million for a pretty impressive book-to-bill of 1.56. When we get to the forecast, you'll see that we're expecting substantial increases in our Test business on a quarterly basis rolling forward, and we believe that we are operating in what I call a target-rich environment. There are a number of pretty large potential programs out there that we are pursuing. And if those programs are awarded when we expect them to be awarded and if they are as big as we expect them to be, then we will hit our budgeted revenue number of about $100 million this year. So that's the task. That's the goal. And even though the revenue level was pretty below in Q1, my observation is that the business is pretty optimistic and has these bigger targets or a number of, a larger number of big targets in sight today than it ever has before. Our Q1 backlog at the end of the quarter, given those strong bookings, was $47.5 million. Moving to our balance sheet. Pretty stable, continues to be pretty healthy. At the end of Q1, cash of $10.7 million, total debt of $141 million for a net debt of about $131 million. Our capital expenditures in the quarter were about $2.8 million. During the quarter, we purchased approximately 148,000 shares on a market of $4.4 million -- for an aggregate cost of $4.4 million. Since the inception of our buyback program, we have purchased 671,000 shares for a total cost of about $22 million. That means that we have remaining room on our authorization of about $28 million. So talking about our guidance going forward. We revised our 2017 revenue guidance to $635 million to $690 million. That's down slightly from $640 million to $720 million. If you take the midpoints of both of those ranges, the new range is down about 2.5% from the old range. Further, if we were to achieve the midpoint of the new range, our year -- total revenues in 2017 will be up 4.6% over our 2016 actuals. Our revised expectations for Aerospace are $545 million to $580 million. The entire drop in the forecast is related to Aerospace with the midpoint being down about 3% from previous forecasts. Test systems, we tightened from $80 million to $120 million to $90 million to $110 million, midpoint obviously being flat from the old forecast to the new. We expect the year to build as it passes. Our second quarter expectation is to see revenues up $5 million to $10 million and growing successively from there. Understanding the forecast. A few things to keep in mind. I talked about our CCC acquisition. We do have $12 million included in the Aerospace for the remainder of the year. So the apple-to-apple drop, if you want to look at the old forecast to the new forecast and back out CCC, would actually be about 4.4% or $30 million. Again, all that drop would be on the Aerospace, and I talked about some of the headwinds that we're facing, particularly with respect to wide-bodies and program slides and some price renegotiations. And to the extent that we can quantify them today, and I'm sure we're going to get these questions, we would say that approximately -- that the wide-body situation is responsible for about 50%, half of our drop from the original forecast to the new forecast. That -- the schedule issue explains about a quarter of the drop, 25% of the drop. And price, we expect, at the end of the day, when we look back at this year, will be about another 25%. So that's roughly the allocation. When you look at risks, one of the big risks has to do with timing and schedules. Our -- we are expecting a ramp in both parts of the business really going towards the end of the year but especially on our Test side. And the issue that we will be watching very closely is the expected awards of programs that we expect to get going on. Those, we're obviously taking some reserve by lowering our forecast now in response to some of the schedule things that we see. But there is, I guess, we think, equal balance of downside risk and upside potential based on the anticipated timing and size of awards which we're pursuing. So we'll obviously spread that news as quickly as we can as those things are ironed out in the future. So it's kind of a strange message, I guess. We're downgrading our forecast a little bit, but we also remain very optimistic in our business. We are not downgrading our forecast because of competitive threats or because of customer challenges or problems. We continue to believe that we're very well positioned. We continue to believe that our customers really enjoy working with us and look at us as a source of innovation. And we think that we've got some really great targets. We think there are some things in the market working against us, working against pretty much all participants in the market right now. We are no exception. But we think as the year progresses, it'll be a stronger year and a better year than 2016. And it's early to talk about, but we expect that we will be charging into 2018 with quite a bit of momentum. So I think that concludes my prepared remarks. Danielle, we can open it up for questions at this point.