Peter Gundermann
Analyst · Dougherty & Company
Thank you, Debbie, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for tuning into our call today. I'm going to talk first about our consolidated Q3 results and year-to-date results and then go into the segments, and we'll close with a discussion for revised expectations for the rest of this year. Jumping right into the headlines, no doubt, third quarter was a weak quarter compared to way we thought it would be, especially on the heels of our second quarter, which was a pretty strong quarter; revenues, margins and bookings, all were pretty right. And in understanding it, I'll tell you now, what I'm going to tell you is we go through the text of the discussion, we kind of have to look both of our segments, our test segment pretty much gave us what we expected. The press release doesn't play well for our test segment, because our comparative quarter over our third quarter last year, 2015, was the high watermark for our lumpy test business or test business was tends to be lumpy and all year long we knew that we were going to have somewhat reduced volumes compared to what we had in 2015, so no surprise there. The aerospace quarter was a little bit more of a surprise, and what we're going to do is look at the third quarter in the context, not in the comparative quarter a year ago, but at the second quarter, because the second quarter was our best ever aerospace quarter with record revenues and record profits and record bookings, so the question logically asked would be, what changed, how did we go from a record second quarter to a pretty weak third quarter? And we had some discussion around that, but the bottom line is that it's a combination of a bunch of little things and nothing major. So we'll look at it, but we think it's generally our competitive situation, our market situation; nothing has really changed from the second quarter to the third quarter. Let me move up to the revised expectations for 2016 based on our progress after three quarters and our lower than expected bookings in the third quarter, along with some scheduled slides we are reducing our top line expectations for yearend 2016. We'll talk about that too. So again, revenue for the third quarter on the consolidated basis was a little bit weaker than we expected, $155 million, our comparative quarters of the third quarter of 2015 was $200 million, so that would appeal that revenues were down 22% third quarter 2015 to third quarter 2016. When we look back at the third of 2015, you would find that we had pretty strong aerospace results in that quarter of a $139 million revenue, and we had, as I just said, a record quarter with respect to test, $61 million in the single product type, that was the high watermark of anything we've ever achieved in our test business. The third quarter was also below our sequential quarter, our second quarter of 2016 where we had revenue of $164 million and total revenue was down 5.7%. Test was actually up from the second quarter of 2016 and aerospace was significantly. For the quarter on a consolidated basis, bottom line results were light, matching the revenue, netting for almost $12.1 million; 7.8% of sales; diluted earnings per share $0.41 down from $0.82 from the third quarter of 2015. Engineering and Development expenses were $22.2 million; 13.3% of sales. The percent was a little bit higher than we've been running due normally to the lower sales level, but the actual buyers spend was pretty consistent with what we've seen in the recent quarters. Bookings were right at the $136 million, well below the levels of Q1 and Q2. Aerospace came at $123 million and test at $13.7 million, leaving us with backlog at the end of the quarter of $275 million. Operating profit in Q2 was $24.8 million, but dropped to $17.5 million in Q3. Bookings were $163 million in Q2, dropping to a $123 million in Q3. So we went from record revenues, record operating profit and record bookings to substantially lower revenues, operating profit and bookings. We have looked through our business, we've talked to our managers, we have considered a number of scenarios, we really are not aware of anything substantial that can explain this sequential change from such a great Q2 to a great Q3. We do not believe that we are experiencing any kind of competitive change in our markets or product line changes or cost changes. It's simply mostly a matter of coincidental timing of various customer requests and the orders and deliveries. We've seen some evidence of customers pulling things into Q2 out of Q3, but that doesn't explain the whole thing. And so our perspective on the market isn't really a whole different now than it was at the end of Q2. I mean, we were obviously not happy with the quarter's results, but when we take a step back and we look at how our business stands, we feel it stands largely today the same way it stood at the end of Q2, which again was a record quarter. And I guess, our perspective is that the best way to look at Q2 and Q3, and maybe Q1 at this point has to kind of blend them together more than look for sequential changes one quarter to the next. Looking at our aerospace segment year-to-date comparing 2016, through three quarters with 2015 through three quarters, revenues this year $406 million, down 1.8% from $413 million in 2015. Operating profit of $61 million, down from $66.7 million last year. When you look at our Product Line chart, which is on Page 8 of our nine page press release, the second of the last page, looking at our major product lines, year-to-date change helps explain some of the story here. Our Electrical Power & Motion product line, through three quarters was $219 million, 45.8% of our total, and up 5.1% over the first three quarters of last year. Our next largest, aerospace product line, our lighting & safety product line recorded revenues of $121.5 million, 25.4% of our total, up 1.3% over last year. Probably the biggest single product line change that's evident on this chart is in our avionics product line. And you can see there that this year we have revenues through three quarters of $22.7 million and that's down 47%; about half where it was last year. Now avionics product line is made up of a few products, but the major one that we've talked about which continues to haunt us a little bit is our antenna product line, where we have been working on new products and new opportunities where we think we can fill this gap and our expectation has been that we would begin to do so through the end of this year. And kind of good news, bad news on this front, just to bring up to speed, we are pushing really hard here and we're very encouraged with the prospects that are ahead of us, I'll come back to that. The bad news is that we don't have to done yet. We're just starting to get through the certification, the first certification process, which we expect to complete by the end of this month, which will pave the way for sales to certain sectors of the market, but we're not as far along as we wanted to be. So that's kind of the bad news that we hole that we thought we're kind of fill towards the end of this year, is going stretch a little bit in the next year. The good news is that we think we've got a winner, pretty strong winner. This a product that's geared primarily towards the larger business jet market and last week happens two of them, The NBAA show for those of you in the industry, the National Business Aircraft Association show, kind of the big business jet show and I was there all week and was very impressed with the enthusiasm that exist in the market for this product. So we believe that it's going to be a real winner when the times comes and we believe the times going to be next year when we get through a number of these certification processes that are ahead of us. So pretty excited about it, but it certainly didn't help us in our third quarter and year-to-date and its not going to help us much in our fourth quarter, so we're going to continue to struggle with those strap off, until we get into 2017. In terms of significant customers, Panasonic as usual is our biggest customer, 21% of our total year-to-date at our $102 million and Boeing, a close second at 15%, a $74 million in revenue through three quarters. Chasing over the test business, in Q2, revenues were $30 million. Again, if you look at the press release it looks like our test business has gone off a cliff, and I guess it kind of has, if you're going to limit the comparisons for the third quarter of last year when we had revenues of $61 million. But we knew heading into this year that there was going to be a lean year for our test business and so that comparison does not surprise and shouldn't surprise anybody following the business at this point. I think the good news is that that business continues to perform pretty well on a financial basis, given the volumes reductions it' had. Most businesses that see 51% volume reductions don't still manage to make operating income of 10% or 11% like our test business has in this last quarter. So we're reasonably pleased with that. Revenue year-to-date $73 million, again down 40% from last year; bookings year-to-date are $53 million, so we're looking at a lighter rate than we are shipping this year, but we still maintain that we believe this is a trough year for our test business and we are expecting bigger and better things next year. Our aerospace and defense business is up approximately 10% over where it was last year and we expect that rate of growth to continue on into the New Year. The semiconductor business, we feel is premature to bracket at this point, but we do believe that this is going to be a trough year on the bottom and we're expecting good news from that part of our business in 2017. So our balance sheet remains healthy. And as usual cash at $13.3 million at the end of third quarter; total debt of a $164 million, so net debt of a $151 million. We are expecting our capital expenditures by the end of the year to be in the range of $15 million to $17 million. We did buyback some shares in the third quarter. You'll remember we had a $50 million authorization that we initiated in February. We bought 157,000 shares for $5.3 million in Q3 that brings our purchases year-to-date to $17.5 million, 517,000 shares. Looking forward, we are dropping our revenue guidance for 2016 to $635 million to $645 million. That drop is almost is exclusively on the aerospace side, for functioning of our lower than expected revenues in Q3 and certain program delays like the antenna system I just talked about, which we originally thought might help in Q4. Our test business pretty much stays unchanged from previous forecast. We're not going into any detail on 2017 yet. We hope to do that by the end of the year. We believe again that our business kind of across the board is pretty well-positioned. And I guess we believe pretty strongly that the third quarter is a setback certainly, I don't want to make a light of it, but it's not as though it's causing us to reevaluate where we stand in the market or what we need to do be successfully. I think its more than anything, just a result of timing of various customer demands and various development programs that we have underway. So with that being said, Bob, I think we're ready to take some questions.