Earnings Labs

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 8, 2012

$187.36

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Atmos Energy Fiscal 2012 Year-End Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answers session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Susan Giles, VP and Investor Relations for Atmos Energy Corporation. Thank you. Mr. Giles, you may begin.

Susan Giles

Management

Thank you, Brendon. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us. This call is open to the general public and media, but designed for financial analysts. It is being webcast live over the Internet. We have placed slides on our website that summarize our financial results. We will refer to just a few of the slides during the live call, but we will be happy to take questions on any of them at the end of our prepared remarks. If you would like to access the webcast and slides, please visit our website at atmosenergy.com and click on the conference call link. Additionally, we plan to file the company’s Form 10-K next week. Our speakers today are Kim Cocklin, President and CEO and Bret Eckert, Senior Vice President and CFO. There are other members of our leadership team here to assist with questions as needed. As we review these financial results and discuss future expectations, please keep in mind that some of our discussion might contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act. Please see slide two for more affirmation regarding the risk and uncertainties we consider in making these forward-looking statements and where to go to get more information on such risks and uncertainties. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Kim Cocklin. Kim?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Thank you very much, Susan and good morning, everyone. We certainly appreciate you joining us and your interest in Atmos Energy. Our thoughts do continue for all of those impacted by Sandy. We remain in contact with the affected utilities up in the northeast and stand ready when called to send people, equipment and supplies and anybody that was personally impacted, we certainly spend our continued thoughts and prayers for you during the recovery process. Yesterday, we were very pleased to report consolidated results, excluding the mark of $221.7 million or $2.42 per diluted share compared to results last year of $214.2 million or $2.34 per diluted share. When you add back the negative mark of $5 million or a negative nickel per share, reported consolidated net income was $217 million or $2.37 per diluted share for fiscal ‘12 compared to net income of $208 million or $2.27 per share a year ago. This represents the 10th consecutive year we’ve increased earnings per share and compares very favorably to our guidance range of $2.30 to $2.40, which also excluded unrealized gains and losses. Regulated operations have continued to increase its contribution of stable, predictable and reliable earnings for the enterprise, driven by a very focused and well executed rates and regulatory strategy. Rate relief for the distribution in Atmos Pipeline Texas combined generated about $47 million of incremental margin in fiscal ‘12. We did take advantage of the warmer than normal heating season and accelerated the start of many capital projects to fortify strengthen and/or replace our infrastructure to make our system even more safe and reliable. Also during the year, we closed on the sale of our distribution assets in Missouri, Illinois and Iowa to Liberty Energy and recorded an after-tax gain of about $6 million or $0.07 per…

Bret Eckert

Management

Thanks, Kim. And good morning everyone. Since the quarter is really shoulder period for us. Our remarks will focus on a fiscal year and earnings guidance for fiscal 2013. As Kim mentioned, consolidated results for fiscal 2012, excluding realized margins with $221.7 million or $2.42 per diluted share. When you add that the negative market of $5 million or $0.05 per diluted share. Reported consolidated net income was $217 million or $2.37 per diluted share for fiscal 2012, compared to net income of $208 million of $2.27 per share one year ago. As expected, in our fiscal 2012 results was net gain on the sale of Missouri, Illinois and Iowa assets of $6.3 million or $0.07 per diluted share. Additionally, current year net income includes another $4 million or $0.04 per diluted share from the net positive impact of several one-time items. When comparing this year to last year, slide 3 shows that after eliminating the one-time items and the unrealized gains and losses in both years. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.30 for both periods. Drilling down into our regulated businesses and our distribution business, rate increases drove margin by about 18 million, with minimal impact on average customer bill. Consolidated distribution throughput decreased 8% this year, mainly due to lower consumption, primarily from warmer weather. With WNA mechanisms protecting about 94% of utility margins this past winter, we have largely mitigated the negative effect of a warm winter and in fact, we received over 15 million of WNA released to improve loss throughput. The Texas Intrastate Pipeline, Atmos Pipeline Texas experienced over a 28 million increase, primarily associated with the last GRIP program as well as an additional 18 million increase from the rate case effective in May of 2011. APT continued to experience an increase in its…

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Thank you very much for that report, Bret. We had an extremely solid year in ‘12 and increased earnings per share for the 10th consecutive year. And during fiscal ‘12, we did communicate our plans to invest significant capital in our regulated operations over a 5-year timeframe, ending fiscal 2016 to fortify, strengthen and/or replace our infrastructure to make our systems even more safe and reliable. Fiscal ‘12 was the first year of that 5-year plan and we invested approximately $723 million in our regulated operations. We’ll continue to finance this growth from internally generated cash flow and a combination of debt and equity. Our current plan assumes a net increase of 425 million in debt over that 5-year period. As a result of the various policies, encouraging investments by our regulators, we expect to increase our rate base from about 3.9 million – billion excuse me, at the beginning of fiscal ‘12 to between 5.7 billion and 5.9 billion by the end of fiscal ‘16, which equates to a compounded annual growth rate in rate base of 8% to 8.5% over that timeframe. The spending is significant because the enhanced value of the rate base is expected to generate earnings growth in the range of 6% to 8% on a compound annual basis through 2016. Overall, we have an exceptional portfolio of assets in very constructive business regulatory environments and have posted excellent relationships with regulators, who are tax but balancing the needs of consumers and businesses like Atmos provide essential utility services. Our rate treatment has improved steadily in all jurisdictions. In fiscal 2012, we receive great approvals to increased operating income by about $31 million. We will also allow to create asset deferrals of almost $10 million. This compares to range of between $90 to $110 million…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Ted Durbin of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Hi, guys. How are you doing?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Good morning, Ted. Pretty good. How are you doing? Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Surviving.

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Oh, you’re affected. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: I personally was not, but certainly everyone in the area was, so it’s been a little bit of a recovery. So we’re getting out of it though.

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Looks terrible from where we are seeing, Ted for sure. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Thank you. If we can just dwell a little bit more into the assumptions for the guidance in 2013 and really a certain broken record, but on the Mid-Tex stuff, is there anything you can give us in terms of you’ve asked for 46.5 million, kind of where are you coming out there, how are you reading the way this proposal for decision might come on next week? Kind of just any more color you can give us on the Mid-Tex side?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

We haven’t gotten any more information or color or anything on it, but it will be coming out, the hearing examiners first issue is decision and then we’re expecting by Christmas to have the commission action on it. So – Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Okay. But you’ve got obviously a substance there on the 90 to 111, you’ve got your best guess on in terms of kind of where you’re going to come out on Mid-Tex and I guess the implementation then would be – would it be – if at all or would it be sort of if you get the final decision December 20, is that when you start to recognize the revenues?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Any decision is only prospecting, so we’ll be communicating that information as soon as it’s available. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Okay. Fair enough. And then just on the divestitures quickly, you’ve obviously closed the sales previous and you’ve got the Georgia, I’m wondering if there’s any significant overhead savings we should be thinking about from those and I heard your comments around feeling like you have the right footprint now, so we should presume that there is probably not other sales of smaller utilities coming.

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

No. No more sales were done in the eight remaining jurisdictions that we’re situated in. We think we’ve got a good footprint, we’ve got a excellent relations and we have very good economic conditions compared to the rest of the country and very good regulatory constructs in terms of significant overhead savings now. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Okay. And then last one for me, there’s been commentary around the Barnett and maybe some volumes least stabilizing kind of feeling a little better about gas prices, some of the activity level, so I’m just wondering if you can comment on what you’re seeing in the Barnett, the producer interest and maybe if there is other more projects that would be GRIP eligible that you can see it on the path there?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Yes, we can. The connected wellhead volumes are increasing and improving to our system and creating a lot of potential opportunities. Obviously, the ones that we have currently on the drawing board and are pursuing are as a result of increased deliveries that are coming on from associated gas plays and they continue to drill up that field and they’re moving out in the West Texas area towards the connection and we have opportunities out there. So it’s very, very good situation for Atmos Pipeline Texas and even a better situation for the Mid-Tex and West Texas divisions, who are going to continue to benefit from additional supply opportunities and diversity and competition to meet their needs, because we’re seeing continued growth in – on and around the metro area in DWF and certainly coast, where we serve the Austin area. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Okay.

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Yeah. It’s – lot of sunshine ahead. Lot of hope and change for us. Ted Durbin – Goldman Sachs: Okay. That’s it for me. Thanks, Kim.

Susan Giles

Management

Thank you, Ted.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from (inaudible) of Citigroup. Please proceed with your question. Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: Hey, good morning, guys. It’s Amit Marwaha here. Let me –

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Amit, how are you? Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: I am all right, Kim. How are you making out?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Pretty good, pretty good. Good to hear from you. Are you okay, everything – were you affected? Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: Yeah. I’m downtown.

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Oh gosh. I sort of figured. Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: Yeah. But I got swimming in –

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Oh, boy, that brings you back to your Austin and Canada days, I guess. Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: Oh, yeah, good memories, good memories. Just a quick question here on the non-regulated side continue just continued to see the volumes drifting off and the unit margins coming off, just wondering if there are any opportunity here some of smaller players, getting squeezed out of bit potentially pick up, I know this is non-core area for cross, is there potential here to pick up some incremental volumes from the smaller players and kind of how should we look at the run rate?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Yeah. Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: Is there further deterioration. How should we think about margin going forward given kind of where the picked?

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

We had really, really good results in the last quarter, from the non-regulated group and it was principally driven by obviously some of the positions drilling off, but more importantly, we saw an uptick in the average margin that they were collecting out there, and overall net that did increase customers for 2013 and their focus and their new business strategy obviously, is identifying, which exactly what you’re talking about. We need the quality in smaller customers and they were not chased in the bigger industrials, since the a lot of the producers are going after them and there’s a lot of energy managers that are involved in the middle of that, which cuts down on your margin. But their indicators particular last two months of our fiscal year. They succeeded and increasing the number of customers they have and increasing the average margin rate that they are collecting. So, yeah. I mean, you are exactly right and we do see a good opportunities for that group going forward, I think, we’ve got a positions exceptionally well. They are focusing on delivered gas sales strategy, and have always done exceptionally well and in customer survey, so, they have over 90% retention rate with the customers, they do business with, meaning that most of those customers signed up for one year at a time, and they’ve got 90% of have returned year after year. So, let’s review now, there’s some of that relationship a lot of value, they’re doing well. Continuing to focus and take the opportunity, when can’t went storage and transmission long transportation contracts roll off. They’re taking advantage of the market opportunities for lower prices and reducing so, and we again – we’re not. We do – we don’t have any more but not assuming any more than a 10% contribution, but we’re extremely comfortable and happy and we think that there are an important asset in our portfolio contributing at that level is very good. Amit Marwaha – Citigroup: All right. Thanks for the color, Tim. Take it easy, guys.

Kim Cocklin

President and CEO

Thank you, Amit.

Operator

Operator

It seems there are no further questions at the time. I would like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Susan Giles

Management

Thank you, all. And as a reminder, a recording of this call is available for replay on our website through February, the 6th. If you have any additional questions, please call me. We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy and thank you for joining in it. Good bye.