Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Allegheny Technologies, Incorporated Second Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Greenfield, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Please go ahead. Danny L. Greenfield - VP-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Thank you, Emily. Good morning, and welcome to the Allegheny Technologies' earnings conference call for the second quarter 2015. This conference call is being broadcast on our website at www.atimetals.com. Members of the media have been invited to listen to this call. Participating in the call today are Rich Harshman, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Pat DeCourcy, Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer. All references to net income and earnings in this conference call mean net income and earnings from continuing op. attributable to ATI. If you have connected to this call via the Internet, you should see slides on your screen. For those who have dialed in, slides are available on our website, www.atimetals.com. After some initial comments, we will ask for questions. During the question-and-answer session, please limit yourself to two questions to be considerate of others on the line. As always, we will make every attempt to reach everyone in the question-and-answer queue within the allotted conference call time. Please note that all forward-looking statements this morning are subject to various assumptions and caveats as noted in the earnings release and on this slide. Actual results may differ materially. Here is Rich Harshman. Richard J. Harshman - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Dan. Good morning to everyone on the call or listening on the Internet. Although business conditions were challenging, we are disappointed in our second quarter results. Being unprofitable is unacceptable regardless of market conditions, and we will be aggressive in our actions to address this issue. Some of the challenges that we faced in the second quarter included a surge of low priced imports of standard stainless products from China created significant pressure on base selling prices, resulting in record low base prices by the end of the second quarter. In addition, the price of nickel on the LME fell throughout the second quarter, resulting in a drop in raw material surcharges. The combination of these two conditions also led to aggressive inventory reduction actions by some of our stainless sheet distribution customers. As a result, shipments and sales of our standard stainless products fell dramatically in the second quarter. Volume decreased 13% and sales were down by approximately 20%, both compared to the first quarter 2015. Demand from the oil and gas and chemical process industry markets continued to weaken in the second quarter of 2015 with ATI sales falling over 17.5% compared to the first quarter of 2015. Due largely to mix changes and a replenished supply chain second quarter sales to the aerospace market moderated compared to the first quarter of 2015. However, first half 2015 sales to this key market are 12% higher than the comparable period last year. The premature defect in the rotary crop shear at our Flat Rolled Products segment Hot-Rolling and Processing Facility or HRPF temporarily disrupted our cost reduction progress in this segment. On the positive side, culminating a multi-year effort, ATI achieved qualification from a leading jet engine OEM for our premium titanium products used in jet engine rotating parts made using the premium quality titanium sponge produced at ATI's Rowley, Utah facility. Premium quality titanium sponge is the critical raw material required to manufacture the most demanding jet engine rotating parts. Our operating teams did an excellent job and beat the qualification schedule. The timing of this qualification is well aligned with forecasted growth in demand from the aerospace market. Also, we announced the expansion of our nickel-based superalloy powder capabilities. This $70 million strategic growth project strengthens ATI's position in the production of technically demanding superalloy powders. A significant amount of the powders from this expansion are needed to meet requirements of our existing long-term agreements with jet engine OEMs that run well into the next decade. This expansion also better positions ATI to continue as a leading supplier of advanced powders to the new and rapidly growing additive manufacturing industry, particularly for 3D printed applications. This expansion builds on ATI's existing powder capabilities located at facilities in Oakdale, Pennsylvania, near Pittsburgh, which are currently operating near capacity. Here is Pat DeCourcy, ATI's Chief Financial Officer for a more detailed discussion of the 2015 second quarter financial results. Pat? Patrick J. DeCourcy - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Thanks, Rich. Turning to slide four, looking at second quarter results from continuing operations. Sales were $1.023 billion. 82% of our sales in the second quarter were what we regard as high-value products. International sales represented 43% of our second quarter sales. Net loss was $16.4 million or $0.15 a share. Turning to slide five. High Performance Materials and Components segment sales were $511.1 million, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous quarter and approximately 1% lower than the second quarter 2014. Segment operating profit was $42.6 million. Second quarter 2015 segment operating profit was reduced by a $4.8 million net realizable inventory reserve to offset the LIFO reserve benefit recorded in the Flat Rolled Products segment. This was necessitated by ATI's consolidated LIFO reserve being in a debit balance. As Rich indicated, segment results were negatively impacted by a reduction in sales to the oil and gas market compared to the first quarter 2015. Results also continued to be negatively impacted by low operating rates at our Rowley titanium sponge facility. Flat Rolled Products segment sales were approximately $511.4 million, 12% lower than the previous quarter and over 15% lower than the second quarter 2014. Segment operating loss was $3.4 million or over $11 million lower than the first quarter 2015. Segment results benefited from the reduction in the LIFO reserve of $5.1 million; however, nearly all of this benefit was offset by the previously discussed net realizable inventory valuation reserve recorded in the High Performance Materials and Components segment. Slide six shows the impact of HRPF start-up and Rowley PQ qualification costs have preset the results from continuing operations. Adjusted loss before tax excluding these items was $10.8 million in the second quarter and adjusted EBITDA was $64 million. Turning to slide seven; we maintained a solid liquidity position with $251 million in cash on hand and no borrowings outstanding under our $400 million domestic line of credit facility at the end of the quarter. We are proactively pursuing an asset-based lending facility or ABL. Available borrowing capacity in the ABL is determined by the underlying collateral pool. This type of facility does not have leverage and interest coverage covenants and the borrowing cost are expected to be lower than our current facility. We are receiving strong support from our bank lending group and we expect to close the ABL facility by the end of the third quarter. Given the challenges in some of our end markets we lowered our estimate for 2015 capital expenditures to $250 million from our previous estimate of $290 million. Now I will turn the call back over to Rich. Richard J. Harshman - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Pat. Turning to slide eight; the aerospace and defense market continues to be our largest end market with 2015 first half sales of $794 million. This market represented 37% of ATI's total sales and breaks down as follows; 18% jet engine, 12% airframe, and 7% defense. We expect that the commercial aerospace market will be a significant driver of our profitable growth over the next five years, as production rates ramp for the next-generation engine programs and record backlogs at airframe OEMs are delivered. First half 2015 sales to the aerospace market increased 12% compared to the first half of 2014. The first quarter of 2015 was strong as the supply chain replenished inventory. The second quarter fell from that high level as we saw customers keep their inventories in line with the projected build rate. The Paris Air Show went well for ATI. Our meetings with customers were many and included discussions on how we plan to continue to grow our strategic relationships. One thing stood out, OEMs are looking for the most reliable suppliers during this massive upcoming next-generation build rate ramp. The assets we have invested in and built, and the product and process technologies we have developed over the last 10 years put ATI in an excellent position to create economic value for our shareholders and value for our customers over the next five years at least. On slide nine, we have quantified the impact that our previously announced new long-term agreements are expected to have on our forgings and castings business. Currently, our hot-die forge and titanium investment casting operations are in the early stages of ramping up production of recently awarded legacy and next-generation parts. As we have said, we expect to at least double the size of our forging and casting business over the next five years. Our design engineers are working with our customers to qualify new tooling and parts which have been awarded to ATI by our customers over the last year. A leading indicator for growth in forgings and castings is called NPI or new product introduction. We are currently working through our NPI forging and casting backlog of over 300 parts won under LTAs in late 2014 through June 2015. These new parts are expected to generate incremental sales in excess of $1 billion from 2016 to 2020 mostly to our strategic aerospace market customers. In addition we have good momentum and are continuing to win new parts with existing customers and in some cases with new customers. We believe we're well-positioned to maintain and in several instances to increase our position on certain long running legacy programs and maximize our position on certain key next-generation growth programs. Turning to slide 10, shown is the most recent market forecast of commercial aircraft build rates. The black line on this chart represents the number of next generation airplanes in the build rate forecast. As we have said in the past, this is a good proxy for ATI's potential aerospace market growth trajectory, since we have secured increased positions on many of the next-generation airplanes and engines that power them. As you can see, record growth in the next-generation engines is expected through at least 2019. This market forecast is from Airline Monitor, note that their forecast recently has moved higher for 2019, which now shows only a slight decrease from 2018. Airline Monitor's previous forecast showed a more noticeable drop in 2019. This revised forecast is more consistent with the OEM forecast. Slide 11 shows the most recently available reported OEM firm order book of the major engine programs, which as of May 31, 2015 stands at over 21,000 large jet engines. This represents the backlog prior to the Paris Air Show. The first five lines show the backlog for engines that power single-aisle airplanes. Note the over 11,000 next-generation engines in the backlog, again a good proxy for ATI's growth opportunities in this important market. Moving to slide 12, the oil and gas/chemical process industry market is our second largest end market. For the first half of 2015, sales to this market were $383 million and represented 18% of ATI's sales, 12% oil and gas and 6% chemical process industry. ATI's second quarter 2015 sales to the oil and gas and chemical process industry fell just over 17.5% compared to the first quarter of 2015. High Performance Materials and Components segment orders and sales for exploration and other down-hole applications declined compared to the first quarter of 2015. Our customers have revised their forecast downward resulting in significant reduction in orders that are expected to continue to impact our results at least through the rest of 2015. Our Flat Rolled Products segment sales to the oil and gas market are up nearly 12% in the first half of 2015 compared to the first half of 2014, mostly due to a large pipeline project. Shipments for this project are expected to be completed this month, and at this point, this volume is not expected to be replaced by existing demand for the balance of 2015. We're in a period of great near-term uncertainly in most of the oil and gas markets that use ATI materials. While there are signs that the supply side economics which led to the glut are being – beginning to self-correct, the certainty of the correction and the pace at which this correction will occur is uncertain. Long-term, we expect that demand from the oil and gas markets will recover and growth will return. This is a technically demanding and critical market for the world's developed and developing economies. Therefore, we remain focused on oil and gas as a key global market for ATI. We have new products for this market that are enabled by our new capabilities and are focused on relentless innovation. We continue to expand our product offerings to the oil and gas and CPI markets. The HRPF gives us the capability to offer larger and flatter coils of nickel-based alloys, duplex alloys and other specialty alloys and stainless alloys. Our 48-inch wide nickel-based alloys are being embraced by our customers. We are actively pursuing innovative applications of our ATI Flowform products made from our nickel-based alloys and specialty alloys. So far, early trials are going well and Flowform pipe and tube products have attracted significant interest from the oil and gas equipment producers due to the value proposition of this manufacturing process. Turning to slide 13; sales to the automotive market during the first half of 2015 were $179 million and represented 8% of ATI sales. Customer demand for our high value Flat Rolled Products from our automotive customers in the U.S., Europe and Asia remains strong. We have seen gains as our products are being accepted by foreign automotive companies with North American manufacturing facilities. Our product mix continues to trend favorably as nickel-based alloy and specialty alloy applications continue to grow due to higher engine operating temperatures. Car manufacturers continue to develop smaller and lighter engines that use turbochargers to boost performance. This creates an engine environment that demands specialty materials capable of operating in high-pressure, high-temperature environments in applications such as turbochargers, gaskets, and connectors. This secular shift is somewhat similar to the trend we see in jet engines, and ATI is well-positioned to transfer aerospace technology to the automotive market. High-pressure, high-temperature engines often require aerospace alloys such as nickel-based superalloys and specialty alloys, including some recently developed ATI proprietary alloys. We are near the end of our extraordinary capital expenditure cycle that has transformed and modernized ATI and positioned our business for long-term success and profitable growth. We've built the foundation for creating long-term value through relentless innovation and we've secured our position to grow faster than the market during this once-in-a-lifetime aerospace market transition from legacy to next-generation airplanes and jet engines. Slide 15, although busy tells the story of the second quarter. The slide shows the double whammy that hit the flat rolled stainless sheet market. The blue bar represents the surge in imports. The chart on the right shows the direction of the LME nickel price during 2015. Surging imports and falling raw material prices, not good for base selling prices and raw material surcharges or customer demand. Let's spend a few minutes on the import situation. Note the import level in 2010, 2011, and 2012 is pretty much flat. In late 2014, the U.S. market saw the beginning of a surge in imports primarily from China. Based upon year-to-date May 2015 data, the latest available, imports from China increased nearly 150% during the first five months of the year compared to the first five months of 2014. Also note, the box located to the right of the blue bars. China is now exporting more stainless sheet and strip to the U.S., than Europe and Mexico combined. A familiar story, the EU initiates trade cases against China, which they have done. And the U.S. market becomes a target for Chinese producers to dump product. While ATI continues to be active to promote fair and free trade, we also recognize that we must have a cost structure that generates profits from our stainless business throughout the cycles, and we are taking actions to achieve that goal. This requires more than just the investment in the HRPF. Turning to slide 16, the HRPF was built to enable a more competitive profitable high quality Flat Rolled Products business and provide the capability to better compete globally with a lower cost structure, high reliability, a broader product range, and larger wider coils. As expected the HRPF is proving to be a game changing investment designed to significantly enhance ATI's Flat Rolled Product capabilities and reduce manufacturing cycle times for all of our Flat Rolled Products. The HRPF investment enables us to reengineer our Flat Rolled Products business with renewed focus on shorter manufacturing cycle times, customer responsiveness, and an improved and more competitive cost structure. The integration of the HRPF in the daily operations was going extremely well, until a defective rotary crop shear or RCS component was discovered this past May. After the defect was discovered, our team did a great job reprogramming the HRPF to produce most of our Flat Rolled Products without the RCS. The defective RCS has been removed and the replacement installation is expected to be completed by the end of December. The RCS outage, while frustrating, is a temporary disruption. New product qualification and development continues to move forward. For example for the aerospace market we are qualifying products new to ATI Flat Rolled Products, such as a 48-inch wide nickel-based alloys and new titanium alloys. For the automotive market, we are providing auto exhaust alloys to new customers and improving our high value product mix to meet our customers' needs to make components for engines operating at higher temperatures. However due to the RCS defect, we expect the $150 million of annualized benefits to now begin to be realized closer to the early 2016 than later this year in the fourth quarter of 2015. ATI Flat Rolled Products is fortunate to have several differentiated product lines. For these high value products, we must increase our global market position, while relentlessly embracing continuous improvement initiatives to reduce the cost of manufacturing these products. The second quarter of 2015 shows once again that we are currently not profitable in our Flat Rolled Products business, when a challenging market for stainless steel causes losses that sap the profits from our high value product mix. We can cite imports. We can cite slow growth. We can cite the price of nickel. These factors are all true, but we do not use them as excuses. We also know that when the stainless market recovers, and it will, it is cyclical and these market dynamics will happen again. To create sustainable value for our shareholders and to secure the future of the business, we must generate a profit on our Flat Rolled Products business in times like these when the price of standard stainless products retraces record low levels. The production flow path from our melt shops to the HRPF and DRAP which is a continuous automated finishing facility can be efficient and productive stainless steel production flow path, but by itself is not a panacea. Total hourly employment costs in our Flat Rolled Products business represents one-third of our non-metal operating cost. This is too big a cost to ignore. Our total hourly employment costs are significantly higher than those of the major U.S. located flat rolled stainless competitors, a competitive gap that we must begin to address for this business to be successful and create sustainable value for our shareholders and customers, and opportunities for our employees. Turning to slide 17; ATI has made significant investments in our U.S. manufacturing capabilities in the last 10 years. These investments are changes in technology that help address changing customer needs and expectations, and a changing competitive landscape. By definition these investments help keep great manufacturing jobs in the United States. In the ATI businesses that have collectively bargained labor agreements, these agreements must have the flexibility to respond to changing market conditions and competitive factors. Businesses that have such agreements can be successful manufacturing products in the U.S. as opposed to exporting those jobs overseas. The requirements of some of our current labor contracts are legacy requirements from a market environment that no longer exists. As we have said many times, the HRPF is an important strategic investment, but it is an enabler, it is not the sole answer. Just as we have invested in new technology, we must change the other aspects of our business to ensure that we can be profitable throughout the inevitable business cycles. The labor agreements between ATI and the United Steelworkers for most of our U.S. Flat Rolled Products facilities and for two High Performance Materials and Components facilities located in Albany, Oregon and Lockport, New York expired on June 30, 2015. Presently our USW-represented employees at these locations continued to work under the terms of the expired agreements. We, ATI, continue to work diligently and in good faith with United Steelworkers on a negotiation process in an attempt to reach new, fair and more cost competitive agreements. Our goal is to negotiate agreements that are more competitive and more – and cost – that are more market and cost competitive, have contemporary benefits and wages that will remain among the best in the industry and in the U.S. and provide more flexible competitive operating language. The HRPF is a tremendous investment in manufacturing in the U.S. and is located in Western Pennsylvania, right in the industrial heartland. We must focus on all cost factors, including wages and benefits in order for ATI Flat Rolled Products to return to consistent profitability. Only a profitable Flat Rolled Products business can secure the future of this business and the excellent jobs it provides. ATI and the USW continue to have differences relative to the path forward. ATI has made several proposals designed to come to agreement on the important benefits and language changes that will help return ATI Flat Rolled Products to sustainable profitability. We have not requested a reduction in wages. Although our average hourly wage rate is one of the highest, if not the highest in the industry. We believe that these are some of the best jobs in the country for manufacturing positions and will remain so with our proposed changes; safe, well-paying jobs with attractive benefits, including competitive healthcare plans and retirement savings plans. We will continue to work toward agreement that will retain great jobs in this area and also reflect the competitive landscape that exists today. However, it takes both parties to be willing to negotiate. Earlier this year, we were pleased to have reached agreements with our USW-represented employees at ATI's Lebanon, Kentucky, Forged Products facility and ATI's Oakdale, Pennsylvania powder facilities. So we know it is possible. Until new agreements are reached, ATI is fully prepared to support our customers throughout this process and we're hopeful that we can reach market competitive agreements with United Steelworkers soon. In summary, long-term drivers of our secular growth markets remain intact. The markets we serve are inherently cyclical and some of our key markets are currently highly volatile. Our long-term strategy is to offset or limit the resulting negative impact from this volatility with the benefits of ATI's diversified product mix and end market focus. Our extraordinary capital expenditure cycle is nearly behind us. The HRPF has been successfully integrated into daily operations in our Flat Rolled business and the rotary crop shear component replacement is on schedule. We are making premium quality specialty materials for jet engine rotating parts using our own premium quality titanium sponge. As always, we face numerous market challenges and we must execute. Our challenge and our opportunity are to execute our business strategies. Our strategy includes being focused on actions to align and integrate ATI's specialty materials businesses, enhance ATI's competitive position, and continuously improve the cost structure and operating efficiencies of our businesses to achieve long-term sustainable profitable growth. Operator, may we have the first question, please?