Dhrupad Trivedi
Analyst · Gabelli. Hendi, your line is open
Thank you, Hendi. Dhrupad, some companies talk about longer lead times and then a stronger order visibility that gives higher convictions on the pipeline and the continued strength throughout 2022. Can you talk about order visibility and your conviction on the pipeline? Yes, no, sure. So I think for us, as I think we have continued to refine our processes. We typically look at our sales forecast, our outlook on revenue from several different points of view, one of which would be our own 12-month funnel, 3 months, 9-month funnel, etc., and understanding of the rates at which those translate? Second is we obviously look at market lead indicators, not necessarily what happened last quarter and how those lead indicators, whether it's got net IT spending on cybersecurity, capex, delta, etc., etc. So that's a second thing we look at. And there's a couple of other factors, right? So we look at multiple factors when we think of outlook and what we commit. And you can see right, hopefully we have demonstrated some consistency on that front. I would say lead times are extending from our suppliers. I think our customers are generally, of course, concerned about that. But our outlook when you think of Q2 or full year is not based on any specific customer orders or things like that. It's based on our engagement, the deal visibility we have, and we talk about, obviously cycle time is roughly 6 to 9 months, right? So we should have a pretty good perspective on that versus be surprised with 1 month to go. And so we look at multitude of those factors. And so for us, I would say visibility is -- I think we talked about the headwinds and tailwinds, right? So things that are giving us a little bit better visibility is increased relevance and importance of cybersecurity. Second is we continue to see people wanting to use and extend their assets more towards data and connectivity versus maybe 3 years ago they were looking at radical transformation. Headwinds for us, obviously are, we talked about, right, there could be some customer uncertainty around economy and interest rates and things like that which may cause them to defer spending by quarter or something. But generally, we are tracking them on a project-by-project basis, not on a large macro one number basis, right? So we would try to keep visibility on where the project is and budget is and approvals are and all of that. So far as I would say, compared to -- compared to 1 year ago, visibility is not worse, I would say its slightly better. And compared to 2 years ago, it's definitely better. Thank you, Dhrupad, that's very insightful. And Dhrupad, you stated that the main growth drivers this year is security. Can you help break down, let's say the growth in security in service providers versus enterprise? And then I'm also wondering what the state of application delivery controller outlook? I assume that you're still gaining market shares in application delivery controllers. And then if I look at the your top line growth, I'm wondering what is reasonable to think that, lets say growth in security is somewhat close to 20% plus and minus and then the remainder comes from application delivery controller. Yes, I think, so that -- so in our Analyst Day, we talked about 3 categories, right, stand-alone ADC, CGN, CFW or firewall and then DDoS, SSLi. And I think, Hendi, your observation is correct. So for us, stand-alone ADC is not declining, but it is less than the fleet average. And by the way, the reason it is not declining is because we are continuing to invest and innovate in it with more security embedded features, right? And then if you look at DDoS, SSLi, CFW, all the security-oriented products, those are certainly growing north of the average. And I would say we saw growth this quarter in both service provider and enterprise and in security and non-security. So it's not big difference or a drag for us. But remember that for us, our enterprise focus is large enterprise, which tends to be like customers who are worried about critical data availability, uptime and security. So they are closer to other companies that are delivering services as well.