Earnings Labs

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 6, 2015

$30.24

-1.99%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-2.81%

1 Week

+8.71%

1 Month

+11.96%

vs S&P

+12.48%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, welcome to ASE Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference and Conference Call. This is Joseph Su, General Manager of Investor Relations and your host today. Before we begin, I’d like to inform you that the format this time will be slightly different from our previous earnings conference. Today’s event is webcast live via ASE’s corporate website at www.aseglobal.com. As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world we will conduct this event in English only. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode right now. During this event, we will first have ASEs Chief Operations Officer, Dr. Tien Wu, to summarize our business status and provide our key messages and our view on the industry trends, after which CFO Mr. Joseph Tung will present our fourth quarter and full year 2014 results followed by our outlook for the current quarter. After that, Dr. Tien and Mr. Joseph Tung will jointly host the Q&A session. During the Q&A session, please speak your questions in Chinese if you prepare and I will translate the questions into English. For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from ASE’s website www.aseglobal.com. Please also down the summary slides in relations to today’s earnings conference presentation. As usual I would like to remind everybody that today’s discussion may forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainty which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice as it appears on our press release. I’ll now just welcome our Chief Operations Officer Dr. Dr. Tien Wu.

Tien Wu

Management

Good afternoon. I would like to wish you a Happy Chinese New Year to begin with. Also I would like to express on behalf of ASE Group to all of you throughout the year 2014. 2014 to say the least has been a very interesting challenging year for ASE. It turns out that also became the best year ever for ASE group. I would like to give you a brief presentation about some of the highlights on the business for 2014 summary as what we can [Indiscernible] in 2015. To begin with I would like to show you the first chart. In this chart I have two messages. The first message is on the semiconductor revenue for the past ten years the CAGR was 4.6%. In 2014, worldwide semiconductor has grown 7.9% including Logic and Memory. If you are looking at the Logic only, 2014 the worldwide semiconductor has grown 4.9%. During the same timeframe ASE Group revenue has grown 8%, higher than the global semiconductor CAGR. In 2014, the ASE Group revenue collectively is down 14.3% also higher than the 7.9% or the 4.9% of Logic revenue. In the following chart I will give you the breakdown on the ASE Group on the IC ATM as what EMS 10 years CAGR. The number will be higher than 8.0% because of the double counting of some of the SiP revenue which is being accounted for on the EMS as what IC ATM side. On this chart, on the IC ATM throughout the same 10 year spend [ph] the IC ATM ASE the CAGR was 8.2%. In 2014, 9.3% which is higher than the 7.9% higher than the 4.9% semiconductor in the Logic space. During the same timeframe the EMS revenue the CAGR was 8.9%. In 2014 the EMS revenue fared…

Joseph Tung

Management

Okay, last time I speak only English for presentation it was 20 years ago, so bear with me. I’ll spend, its really unfair generally has about eight pages and I have 18 and I have only 50 minutes as well. So I’ll go very quickly to – go through the financial results for the fourth quarter last year as well as the full year numbers. Let’s start with the – the seating arrangement is also very awkward. I’ll start with the fourth quarter numbers. If I stand up, I can see. Anyway, so fourth quarter we had a very good quarter, actually in consolidated revenue growth of 15% to NT$76.6 billion and of which you know the assembly was relatively flat from last quarter but bear in mind that as a reminder the assembly revenue here does not include the SiP revenue that we produced because if that number was eliminated through the consolidations process. Test we had about 2% decline reaching about NT$6.7 billion and direct material sales also came down about 17% to reach about NT$861 billion. This is the result from a soft demand in the wirebonding which has a seasonal softness in the wirebonding segment of the business. The margin actually we had a very good margin performance in the quarter as well. As you can see the gross profit margin was pretty much flat at 21.4 since we guided that it will be slightly down on a gross level, it turned out it has a slight improvement. Part of the reason is because of the NT dollar depreciation which helped our 0.7% on the margin side. Because of the better operating leverage mostly through the SiP operation the improvement in operating margin level is actually greater than gross profit margin. It reached 12.8% in the…

Tien Wu

Management

.:

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes, for copper. And in terms of copper revenue, it accounted for about 66% of the total wirebond revenue, down from 68% a quarter ago because of the seasonal softness of the wirebonding business. In terms of CapEx for packaging, we had NT$65 million invested in packaging of which was NT$26 million for flip chip and bumping and the others for common equipment and also including SiP. Test, the utilization was at high 70 percentage as well. And in terms of CapEx we stand…

Tien Wu

Management

NT$26 million.

Joseph Tung

Management

NT$26 million for test. And in terms of tester count, this is really painful. We added 94 testers and retired 122, with a total test count at 3,267 units at the end of the quarter, okay.

Tien Wu

Management

We'll move on now.

Joseph Tung

Management

Okay. In terms of segment exposure, in fourth quarter you can see that communication really picked up from 53% to 58% of the overall, as a result of the full ramp up of our SiP operation. And this is at the expense of really the – both computer and consumer and automotive where you see the computer actually came – computing actually came down to 11% and consumer and automotive came down to – from 35% to 31%. I think going into quarter one this year, I think that percentage will change because we went to the down cycle for SiP, and therefore the communications, as such, the percentage will be smaller in quarter one. EMS operation we actually had a blow-out quarter in terms of revenue growth in quarter four last year. We actually had a sequential growth of around 39% to reach – revenue to reach $37b. The growth is really fueled by the SiP as well as the Wi-Fi module ramp up which together accounted for about 61% of the overall revenue in the quarter. And with that the margin, the gross profit margin came down from 8.6% to 7.9%. Although at the operating level EMS's operating margin is maintained at around 3.3% level, pretty much the same as previous quarter. So we do see a lot of operating leverage at the – integrating the SiP business as well. In terms of segment breakdown, again the same as SiP and you see the communication really came up a lot from 55% a quarter ago to 67%, which is pretty much the same pattern as we saw in the previous year where in the quarter four in 2013 that percentage was about 61% and this quarter it has grown further to 67% as we increase the SiP business…

Tien Wu

Management

Thank you.

Joseph Su

Management

Now let's open the floor for questions. Wendy, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] [Foreign Language]

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

The cost of potential new customers. Could you just give a framework for the type of projects, as we look over the next year or two for SiP, what you're working on? For the customer base, how concentrated do you think most will be with the major customer, or do you see much diversification through additional customers?

Tien Wu

Management

Okay. The objective here is after years of preparation of a SiP building block, we landed a major customer and we launch the first major product back to 2012. In 2012, 2013, 2014, our odd way into 2015 we have seen the momentum of that SiP product. So the objective this year is to launch additional product not only with that customer but also with other customers, right. I will not be able to comment what type of product. What type of dollar framework? My promise to you is by the end of this year you will see a few. All right. It will be a good project.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. For the capital spending, where you came a little bit above last year. If you could give a framework for this coming year total CapEx, and then where you pan to allocate that CapEx?

Joseph Tung

Management

We’re not allowed to give a specific numbers because it had to go through Board approval first. But I think what I can share with you is, I think the total CapEx number will be a little less than what we had last year, but it won’t be that much difference, at least it will not be lower than the total of depreciation as we have last year which is over $800 million. I think for this year it will be very, very minimum for wire bounding capacity investments. I think if there is some mostly for further automation of that process. I think maybe two-thirds will be for assembly and mostly in the advanced strategy. I’m sorry, sales stay at 50% for assembly. Okay. And then we have 15% for test and then the remaining for material as well as for some SiP project as we come along.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Final question wanted to ask on the gross margin, first quarter guidance regarding back to first quarter 2014 level, but the base for fourth quarter this last year was at 2 points higher than what we did in fourth quarter of 2013. I’m just curious why you’re guiding -- –like it we compared what you just reported your 31%, but a year ago accident [ph] year you were about 27%, 28%. I’m curious why you’re guiding down to that similar levels in the first quarter if there is product mix or some other factor that causing a bigger decline from Q4 to Q1. Like why you’re not seeing that same improving margin trend carrying forward to first quarter?

Joseph Tung

Management

You mean margin.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, for the gross margin?

Joseph Tung

Management

I think the – it’s really the part of exchanges. Therefore there will be impact on the margin itself. But I think as a whole we were pretty happy with what we achieve on the annual basis last year, both in terms gross and as operating margin. So although quarter to quarter there will be fluctuations depending on the different business composition, but as a whole I think the – we will strive to make what we have achieved in terms of margins at sustainable level for the year and in the future as well.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Couple of questions here. And the first question is housekeeping one. Can you give some number value first quarter capacity in terms of the number, how many more a number of wirebonders you’re going to add testers to your flip chip bonding capacity?

Tien Wu

Management

I don’t have the exact unit count. I think the overall CapEx first quarter, I just mentioned broadly on the EMS level there’s also – I think for this year it will be very similar to last year’s overall business would have a fairly healthy movement starting from – actually late, very late first quarter and second quarter will have pretty good jump in terms of overall revenue. I think in terms of utilization of course we, first of all, the utilization in first quarter will be lower than in the quarter four. In terms of assembly I think it will around mid 70s, whereas the blended -- on the blended levels [indiscernible] level.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. My second question, I think you provide the first quarter margin on consolidated basis, can you break it down little bit like how much are you guys suspect for ATM and how much for EMS roughly?

Joseph Tung

Management

Well, I think the EMS will be – there will be some start as well in terms at the growth level. We’re trying to maintain its operating levels for the quarter. So we have our 7.9% investment assets [indiscernible] lower EMS.

Unidentified Analyst -

Analyst

Fair enough. It’s a bit longer for your 2015 outlook. You talked about CapEx. Can you share with us what about your revenue outlook? I know, CEO mentioned about continue market share gain, but I assume your revenue growth, this should be above industry average. Can you share we us your view on that?

Tien Wu

Management

I don’t think we’re allowed to give specific number, but we will outperform the market. Right now the market outlook is 5%, 5% typically means that they don’t know. But if I want to go back to the 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, we’ve always been getting 5% every single time. So this year, I think everybody is guessing 5%. I think Andrew probably have a better guess. I think he doesn’t know either. So with that I think the – our market share will gain will gain and will continue to maintain a strong rebound in Q2 followed by sequential growth quarter-on-quarter which my CFO warn me not to say that, but I feel pretty confident. We should see quarter-on-quarter growth. With that, you can just work out number.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. When you mentioned 5% growth you’d mean a Global Semi this year, it’s not offset by and [indiscernible] Global Semi. What about OSAT? Any idea about that sector growth?

Tien Wu

Management

Okay. The OSAT [ph] is little bit confusing now because there’s a lot of consolidation, also because how aggressive some of the Chinese operators are. I think in China the OSAT growth tends to be much higher than the normalcy. So I won’t be able to comment what’s going to happen in 2015. It’s very, very dynamic, right. But if you look at the Global Semiconductor performed by 5% with all of the margin management, the product mix, the SiP differentiation and we’re trying to do the CapEx discipline as much as we could within our space. We hope to manage a revenue growth together with margin sustainability. That is really the main focus for the next – for this year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. One last question, Tung, little bit about cash dividend policy this year?

Joseph Tung

Management

Well, this is of course the Board’s decision. But as a reference last year we had 65% pay off ratio all in cash as a reference.

Joseph Tung

Management

So its going to be a little maintained or higher

Tien Wu

Management

It’s up to the board. But I’m just giving you a largest number as a reference.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you so much.

Joseph Su

Management

Thank you. Sorry, but when you have your question. When you speak you question please also speak your name and company. Thank you. And our next question will be from Mr. Szeho from BNP online.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

Hi. Good evening, gentlemen. Couple of questions. First one, what’s the Copper Wire Bounding revenue in Q4 and as a percentage of the Wire Bounding revenue?

Tien Wu

Management

The percentage of the Copper Wire Bounding revenue as a percentage to total Wire Bounding revenue is about 66%, down from 68% a quarter ago.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

And what’s the absolute dollar amount?

Tien Wu

Management

Dollar amount is 415.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

Right. And also we forgot to your CapEx this year, you mention will be similar to the depreciation run rate, that’s what you said earlier?

Tien Wu

Management

I’m sorry, can you repeat that?

Szeho Ng

Analyst

Yes. For the CapEx this year are you guiding to this similar to the depreciation run rate?

Tien Wu

Management

We said, will be greater than the depreciation now.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

Okay. All right.

Tien Wu

Management

It’s all right. Great.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

And last one, how should we model tax pay this year, is it going to be around 15% or half [ph]?

Joseph Tung

Management

Model-building purpose I think for this year we are modeling at 17.5%.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

Okay. All right. And last, sorry, so you did a very good job for backend gross margin Q4, should we expect more to come sometimes in maybe later part of this year?

Joseph Tung

Management

We certainly hope so, and as I mentioned earlier on we were pretty happy with what we achieve last year and hopefully on the annual basis both growth and operating margin that we actually had a record year and we will improve much so once you keep it at the sustainable level and use it. Of course from the operation point of view I always look at Tien and say, if there is any further improvement that we can get and he’s nodding?

Szeho Ng

Analyst

So we should had a third Q1 some 3% gross margin to be [indiscernible] how we should expect that given that a number maybe towards end of the year?

Tien Wu

Management

Well, we’re certainly hopeful.

Szeho Ng

Analyst

Okay. All right. Good job. Congratulations.

Tien Wu

Management

Thank you.

Joseph Su

Management

Thank you, Szeho. And our next question will be from Mr. Dan Heyler from BOA/Merrill Lynch. Dan, please speak your question.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Thanks, John. Hello, I’m Joseph and Tien, appreciate the question. Sorry, that I couldn’t make the conference live this quarter. So, couple of quick questions. So as you look at the interestingly the ATM margin, do you think that you can sustain kind of those margin levels that you achieved in 2014 and 2015?

Joseph Tung

Management

This is Joseph Tung from ASX.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Yes.

Joseph Tung

Management

Of course, this is something we like to see, but as I mentioned on a quarterly basis there would be – there also always be some fluctuations and depending on different business conditions or operational conditions, so yes well try out best to keep up margin whether we achieved at a sustainable level, but we’ll do our best.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Okay. Because I see kind of some puts and takes, the SiP project last year was margin accretive for ATM. I guess you’re building out some capacity for the new product. Is that one of the factor that maybe a little bit of drag in the first half of the year and so you’d see the margin pickup there? And what run rate I guess for your new project, do you become margin accretive?

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes. I think for SiP you can spread across a very wide spectrum of different devices or products. Some may have more or higher IC ATM content, some may have more or higher SMT or EMS levels content. Depending on the product the new products that we or new projects that we’re taking it now it’s more toward the EMS side of it and therefore it would be more similar to the EMS side.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Okay. But if the existing product grows in size perhaps that offset that drag, so okay. And then….

Joseph Tung

Management

But I think the real issue here is really whether that’s return accretive or not, and based on what we have the SiP remains to be a lucrative from a return standpoint for us.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Got you. Okay. And then, on the revenue side one thing that’s been coming in as you commented on the second quarter rebound. In the third levels its running a little to the high side across semis and fables as they come in, yet the seasonality has been a little bit more moderate this time. So should we think that the second quarter rebound maybe more moderate than say last year, because inventory levels are running bit on the high side already. So therefore second quarter semiconductor that is the rebound maybe a bit more muted? Just I wanted know what’s your feeling as of the second quarter? What’s your visibility there is …?

Joseph Tung

Management

I guess, all we can say, it’s going to be very healthy jump in the second quarter without being that specific.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Okay. Maybe you could in terms of kind of end markets should we assume some of that mobile area that’s coming back, could you just give some thoughts there on end market?

Tien Wu

Management

No. I think, it’s really across the board with more so on the consumer side.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And finally on the CapEx side, so I just wanted to clarify some comment you made earlier. Did you said that you thought that CapEx maybe flat, you need Board approval, and did you say 50% would be ATM of that and I’m wondering and what was it last year, because that’s a big drop I think from last year for ATM now?

Joseph Tung

Management

50% for assembly than another 15% for test.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

IC.

Joseph Tung

Management

So IC you have about 65%?

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Okay. That’s down from last year.

Joseph Tung

Management

Yeah.

Dan Heyler

Analyst

Okay. That’s it from me. Thank you very much.

Joseph Tung

Management

Thank you.

Tien Wu

Management

Thank you, Dan. Eric, please.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Eric Chen from UBS. Dr. Tien Wu and also Joseph [indiscernible] and good afternoon. First, congratulations for you numbers, right. And my first question regarding to the EMS side of business and my understanding USI Shanghai, its EMS business for the specific comp, the revenue [indiscernible] this year, so Tien, I mean, can you get the roughly idea and because of their strong EMS business and what kind of revenue helpful in the broad business revenue. So what kind of revenue we can give expectation for the whole the year EMS revenue growth?

Tien Wu

Management

I don’t think we’re in a position to give you a number for that.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay. Let me finish. Based on the USI Shanghai and their expectation more line to all EMS revenue just the growth pattern just like a last year, does that make sense?

Joseph Tung

Management

I think it will be color.

Eric Chen

Analyst

It will be similar, all right, in terms of EMS revenue growth this years, okay. And how about operating margin? We have very good operation margin last year and with the EMS revenue percentage increase quite a significant in terms of revenue portion, so what kind of operating margin which you are looking for the year on year base?

Joseph Tung

Management

As I mentioned we will do our best to whatever we achieve at a sustainable level, at a sustainable level.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay. I will remember just you mentioned before more like this year versus last year, our operating margins either flat or slightly up. Is that true or…

Joseph Tung

Management

I'm sorry, again?

Eric Chen

Analyst

I mean, the operating margin versus last year, more like the year-on-year flat or slightly up? Will that be the case either way?

Joseph Tung

Management

I can't say that.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay, you cannot say that. Okay.

Joseph Tung

Management

I am not saying that.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay, you're not saying that. Okay, but that’s a – that pretty makes sense, right, from an analyst's point of view to give a right kind of forecast as year-on-year flat or…

Joseph Tung

Management

I can't comment on that either.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay. There is one argument now; operating margin probably will decline from the second half this year. Does that make sense from your point of view because of EMS revenue growth? And probably even lower than last year level.

Joseph Tung

Management

Well, as I mentioned, depending on the composition of your business, and also, I think depending on the stages of that particular business in the given quarter, there could be fluctuations on the margin. I think the end goal is really to sustain at whatever we achieved last year on an annual basis. And I won't be able to comment on quarterly.

Eric Chen

Analyst

That is the bottom line, right.

Joseph Tung

Management

That's the goal.

Eric Chen

Analyst

And the last question regarding to your business in China, could you give us an idea how many revenue percentages from our China customers and in Q4 last year, Q1 this year, and how about the whole year? What kind of number would you keep in mind?

Joseph Tung

Management

For IC assembly and test, the revenue from our China operation right now is about 12%.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay, how about from China clients?

Joseph Tung

Management

China clients?

Eric Chen

Analyst

Yes.

Joseph Tung

Management

For the IC assembly and test business, about only 2% of the revenue is coming from the Chinese customers.

Eric Chen

Analyst

2%.

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay. I see. I see. How about for the whole year roughly?

Joseph Tung

Management

Roughly.

Eric Chen

Analyst

I mean the China operation and the...

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes, hopefully, it would be more than…

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay, do you have any idea, I mean, regarding to the chips shipped to China, in chips shipped to China probably for the Taiwan handset smartphone IC maker, their business, their product shipped to China, do you have the idea of the revenue percentage-wise?

Tien Wu

Management

I don't think we have this information. We can track part number, but even if we track part number, I'm not sure we can release those information.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Okay, all right. Okay, thank you.

Joseph Tung

Management

Thank you. [Foreign Language]

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

The first one for this year, assuming the revenue growth will be higher than 5%, which business do you think will grow faster than this number? Which of your business will grow slower than this number?

Joseph Tung

Management

Look I think the overall business behind that number…

Eric Chen

Analyst

Just say – I think I'm asking you 5% is the low bar right? Assuming your growth rate is something like an 8% or 10%, which one is higher so – higher than 10%; which number is lower than 10%?

Joseph Tung

Management

I think you already know the answer, I think the communication, the automotive, will be above the bar. The…

Eric Chen

Analyst

How about the SiP and the backend pack at the ATM?

Tien Wu

Management

Right, the SiP, the majority of the SiP will be in the communication space and the SiP per se, the percentage will be much higher. I already talked about it, by Q4 last year, the SiP account for about 18% and then by Q4 this year, hopefully, will be approaching 30%.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Can we have a rough number on a year-over-year basis? For example, full year last year, SiP account for what percentage of revenue, full year for this year, what's your roughly in mind?

Joseph Tung

Management

For the year of 2014, SiP accounts for 11% of their consolidated revenue.

Eric Chen

Analyst

What is the range for this year?

Joseph Tung

Management

For this year, it is – it should be maybe 20% or higher.

Tien Wu

Management

Double.

Eric Chen

Analyst

So assuming all other business remaining flattish, your revenue will grow 9% because of SiP.

Joseph Tung

Management

That is very good.

Tien Wu

Management

He can say that, I'm not allowed to say that.

Eric Chen

Analyst

So if your growth is below 9% that means some other business is declining.

Tien Wu

Management

That is correct.

Joseph Tung

Management

That is very sound math.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Thank you. The second question I have is depreciation cost, what number we should model in for this year and Q1 for full year?

Joseph Tung

Management

For the whole year this year, we have 200 – I'm sorry, 25 for the year of 2014…

Eric Chen

Analyst

2015.

Joseph Tung

Management

2015?

Eric Chen

Analyst

Yes.

Joseph Tung

Management

I think the deprecation cost should grow at maybe low teen percentage.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Low teen percentage point.

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes.

Eric Chen

Analyst

So what about Q1?

Joseph Tung

Management

Q1 should increase by low single digit.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Q-over-Q basis?

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Thank you. Another one is regarding the guidance, is that all the guidance number you provide on the Y4 [ph] including the foreign exchange adjustment? Are these included? OP margin or whatever? The blended ASP?

Joseph Tung

Management

The what?

Eric Chen

Analyst

The blended ASP? Is it US dollar basis or NT dollar basis?

Joseph Tung

Management

The ASP?

Eric Chen

Analyst

Yes.

Joseph Tung

Management

Yes.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Yes, NT dollar basis or US dollar basis?

Joseph Tung

Management

NT dollar basis.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Thank you. The last two questions are fanout, what's your view on the fanout? Where do you see the completion from TSMC from this angle, do you see fanout will be an important revenue for backend guys as well?

Tien Wu

Management

The fanout right now is a small percentage of the backend even from the bumping of advanced technology perspective. We do see that as device technology moving forward fanout will be important for a specific class of clientele. And it is our objective to develop the fanout to meet the transition and the requirement from the customers and then we never view TSMC to be a backend competitor, we would like to view TSMC as our customer as well as the technology and business collaborator. So from that perspective, I believe the ecosystem will decide whose technology will prevail and what is the pricing model and the – how do we manage the multiple sourcing requirements for the fanout. As of today, fanout is a very small percentage of what we do but we do have a plan in terms of making the capital investment. In other words, fanout is part of the technology and product offer road map on the ASE side.

Eric Chen

Analyst

So are we expecting more investment next year?

Tien Wu

Management

You can expect – we have committed to the investment, we will start the – actually, already started. And you will see additional investment in fanout this year, not next year.

Eric Chen

Analyst

The last one is regarding JCET STATS ChipPAC merger, what is your take on that?

Tien Wu

Management

Okay, so on the short term, we have a few customers moving loading from the STATS ChipPAC or the JCET combo to ASE. The -- I do not want to show over-enthusiasm on a few specific customers because of the uncertainties are concerned. However, what I'm trying to say is on the short-term basis, I do believe that the – it is a – it will be some incremental plus for the ASE, we are likely to get additional loading. On a mid to long-term, I believe the competitive landscape may be a little bit more fierce full, however, since day one, the semiconductor has always been competitive. I think there is – any era semiconductor was not competitive, so I think the market just have to carve it out.

Eric Chen

Analyst

[Foreign Language]

Joseph Su

Management

So the question is about fanout, is fanout going to be a factor for your customers to consider shifting the orders from our competitors to ASE?

Tien Wu

Management

I think different customers have different concerns and I think fanout really depends on the customer which IP space they are located and also the overall – the reliability requirements and each customer will make a different decision. But when I talk about the specific customer moving from STATS ChipPAC to ASE, fanout was not part of the consideration. At least in this round. In the future, it is hard to tell. But what I'm trying to say is there will be customers, moving from ASE to JCET and there will be customers moving from JCET combo to ASE. However, for the last 30 years that is semiconductor, customers go, customers come back, depending on the value and the differentiation. I also want to comment on the EMS, the SiP and the IC ATM product mix. I think that it's very, very difficult to model what the mature content on the SiP, especially when we are trying to ramp up SiP on the EMS side. So I think what we should look at is really the return in addition to the margin but what is important is do we have a differentiated offering to the marketplace that the market likes? If they like, how does that contribute to the return of investment as with net income? Margin becomes a very classical measurement when you have a steady state, you understand the cost model, you understand the depreciation, you understand the margin structure. I think we are entering to a new era where on the IC assembly and test side, we understand how to manage this, and when we start enabling the SiP on the EMS side, the margin becomes one of the metrics we look at. But the most important thing we look at differentiation as well as how they contribute to the return of investment on the ASE side. The margin will not be the most critical concern.

Eric Chen

Analyst

When you guide a 20% revenue ramp on SiP, do you or compare to last year of 9%, what kind of wearable devices volume shipment on the watches side are you focusing your model?

Tien Wu

Management

You know, I cannot answer that question.

Eric Chen

Analyst

No, I am talking about the broader customer, not just one customer.

Tien Wu

Management

I will not comment.

Eric Chen

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We've got only three minutes left. Our next question will be from our guest, Jean-Louis on the line. Jean-Louis, please speak your question.

Jean-Louis Lafayeedney

Analyst

Thank you. This is Jean-Louis from Societe Generale Ji Asia. Hi, just one question from me. I will make it quick; it's more of a broader question. Basically, with what we have seen in China in terms of the backend space over the past couple of years and in particular, 2014 and including, of course JCET and STATS and presuming quite aggressive CapEx for the next years, how has that shaped your own strategy for 2015 when you are looking at CapEx and also the type of product that you want to go into? Has everything that you've seen in China and what you believe will happen in China had some bearing and impact on your strategy going forward in terms of your product allocation and perhaps the type of technology that you are perhaps, more emphasizing, for example, looking more at advanced such as flip chip PSP or fanout, etc? Thank you.

Tien Wu

Management

I think the best way to answer this question is to use number. If you look at the backend investment, every year, we roughly between NT$5 billion to NT$7.3 billion we are already past the number. That number was established by a very competitive collective body of semiconductor backend with a given efficiency, that all the competitor worked out. So when the JCET and the China Big Sun [ph] moved in, the central government announced that it will put NT$20 billion over 10 years so I would assume is about NT$2 bill a year. The local number varies from 0 to NT$4 billion per year. Assuming you have central plus local of NT$6 billion fund in China, I believe that will be the worst case. Then you have to talk about the NT$6 billion distribution, how much dollar allocated for merger acquisition, how much dollar allocated for foundry, and how much dollar allocated for the back end. So in my assessment, the big fund allocation to the backend capacity will be no more than NT$1 billion per year. Now if we believe that assessment is correct, NT$1 billion over NT$7.3 billion is still a substantial number; therefore, we do understand when the Chinese believe to pool in NT$1 billion of selective funding in the backend, if that happens, how the industry collectively will react and respond. I believe NT$7.3 billion of total required backend CapEx with the introduction of a NT$1 billion big fund, from mainland China, that can be managed. I am assuming the same level of efficiency. However, if you will look at the China central government and the local government, how the funding will be managed with the enterprise, you will have multiple bodies to make decisions and one of the things that ASE as well as Taiwan Semiconductors strive the best is the speed of decision and the way we execute. Therefore, we are counting on dollar with less efficiency competing with a collect body managed by the global semiconductor. It is a very long answer to a short question. However, I do believe we need to put all the parameter into the landscape. In 2015, I do not believe that we will see any major -- I believe the real effect will only surface three years down the road, probably in 2017, 2018 time frame, we will start seeing the local imbalance of capacity of supply and demand. That is my view.

Jean-Louis Lafayeedney

Analyst

Thank you. So just to confirm then, no major change to your CapEx for this year and your allocation thereof because of what you see in China? Not yet then?

Tien Wu

Management

Okay. So let me rephrase the comment, all right. What Joseph has said there is the – our CapEx will likely to be less than last year. We will manage the business dynamics as well as the allocation to different business units. For example, if there is a wirebond requirement which we don't see, if there is a stronger copper wirebond requirement, there will be copper wirebond CapEx, if the SiP in any, kind of product on the EMS side or on the IC ATM side show a strong demand, we will allocate the CapEx. The CapEx is not the issue, the issue is your CapEx discipline, how does that translate to operational efficiency in your net income? As long as that efficiency translation is there, the more CapEx is spent, the better it is for the business. And I want to make sure people understand the strategy of the ASE Group. Now in this campaign, the China becomes an essential element of the ASE Group because a majority of the USI revenue in SiP are already executed in China. The NT$6 billion market cap on USI in China is listed in Shanghai stock exchange. China is an essential element of the ASE campaign strategy.

Joseph Su

Management

So, Jean-Louis?