Guillermo Novo
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Please, turn to Slide 15. As we wrap up fiscal 2025, I'm proud of the resilience and agility Ashland has demonstrated. Our teams exceeded our innovation targets and advanced our globalized agenda, which began delivering visible results in Q4. We saw steady sequential momentum in our globalized platform throughout the year as investments took hold. While the base business was down on the year in Personal Care globalized segments, Q4 marked a turning point, growing double digits in the quarter. We have clear goals to sustain and accelerate this momentum in fiscal 2026. Regarding our innovate strategy, our teams outperformed our innovation targets driven by core technology advancements. As showcased at the recent Innovation Day, we continue to strengthen our new technology platforms that are central to Ashland's long-term potential. The energy around our innovation pipeline is growing, and we're pleased with the traction we've established. These achievements reinforce our confidence in the long-term value of our portfolio. Looking ahead, we will continue to disclose targets transparently. We believe openness around the goals is essential as we pursue high-quality growth. We are committed to sharing both successes and challenges openly. This approach is fundamental to building credibility and confidence in our strategy, ensuring you have a clear view of our progress and the path forward. For fiscal 2026, we are targeting $20 million in incremental globalized sales and $15 million in innovation-driven growth as we scale platforms and advance recent launches. Please turn to Slide 16. As we look ahead to fiscal 2026, our focus remains on disciplined planning and consistent leverage. This marks our second consecutive quarter of meeting EBITDA commitments, an important step in building credibility going into the new year. Our guidance is grounded in prudent assumptions and reflects a continued emphasis on execution, consistency and transparency. Importantly, our planning reflects a return to growth, signaling a constructive shift in trajectory and renewed momentum across our businesses. Ashland expects full year sales of $1.835 billion to $1.905 billion, representing organic growth of 1% to 5%. Portfolio resets are minimal, roughly $10 million due to owning Avoca for Q1 of fiscal 2025, making this year's result easier to baseline. Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $400 million and $430 million, with free cash flow conversion of 50% and CapEx near $100 million. This supports an attractive free cash flow yield and provides flexibility for capital deployment. Next year, we expected adjusted EPS to grow double digits plus and meaningfully faster than EBITDA, driven by operating improvement and lower depreciation from portfolio optimization. Our assumptions reflect current market realities. Life Science and Personal Care remain resilient, supported by innovate and globalize momentum. Specialty Additives and Intermediates, Specialty Coatings continue to face pressure. While macro factors like interest rates and housing turnover could support recovery, we've tempered upside in our outlook. We expect to outperform underlying markets through share gains, innovation and disciplined execution. Tariff-related uncertainties persist. We're actively managing sourcing, production and logistics and pricing. Input costs remain stable with steady raw materials and well-functioning supply chains. On the cost side, our manufacturing network optimization program continues to advance. Most plant actions are complete, and we remain on track to deliver $50 million to $55 million in savings under current conditions. The full $60 million opportunity is still intact and achievable as China volumes recover. As William noted, timing shifts will reduce the impact in fiscal 2026, but the contribution remains meaningful. Key factors included in our 2026 guidance, approximately $30 million of restructuring and network optimization from our $90 million program. About $20 million related to resetting performance-based compensation and merit increases, approximately $10 million impact driven by repairs and network-wide operational and working capital efficiency measures following the Calvert City outage. We're also increasing our R&D investment by $4 million to accelerate innovation in some of the leading disruptive opportunities. Overall, our fiscal 2026 guidance reflects a prudent view of market conditions. We remain focused on advancing innovation, scaling globalized platforms and driving cost and productivity initiatives to support high-quality growth even in muted markets. With consistent execution, mix improvement and disciplined capital allocation, Ashland is well positioned to deliver resilient performance and long-term value creation. Please turn to Slide 17. In closing, I want to highlight a few key priorities as we look ahead. Fiscal year 2025 ended on a healthy note with our teams delivering on operational and strategic goals despite the challenging macro. The completion of portfolio optimization and network consolidation has made Ashland more focused, resilient business, well positioned for growth in high-value markets. We enter 2026 with momentum. Cost actions are yielding early margin gains with full P&L impact expected to follow. Innovation remains a growth catalyst. We're focused on accelerating commercial success. Recent investments are driving renewed progress in our globalized platforms, reinforcing our confidence in the long-term opportunities. Our priorities for fiscal 2026 are clear: delivering on safety, profitable growth, free cash flow and asset returns, advancing network optimization and inventory performance, accelerating innovation, scale globalized platforms and foster a productivity culture, strengthen systems such as S&OP, costing, planning and leveraging AI, prioritizing talent and organizational stability and engaging our investors through transparent and consistent execution. Fiscal 2026 will be about converting transformation into sustained performance. With a focused platform and resilient core, Ashland is positioned to deliver greater value across stakeholders. Our core businesses have demonstrated stability through challenging periods, and we've strengthened our margins and improved our asset returns. The foundations we've built give us confidence as we pursue our strategic priorities. Thank you to the entire Ashland team for your resilience and teamwork. We're focused on translating opportunity into performance. Operator, let's open the line for Q&A.