Guillermo Novo
Analyst · Deutsche Bank.
I think, obviously, as time progresses, things play in our favor. I think the biggest challenge right now, the 2 biggest ones would be the supply chain reliability and obviously, the price cost inflation. On the reliability, the back end of the year, probabilities improved for us. Why? Demand is strong, capacity is tight. We are producing. Unless we have an issue with our plants, we're going to produce. So we either produce to sell, and you'll see it in our invoice or we produce because we can't invoice, it goes to inventory. Eventually, that inventory will build up in our warehouses at the other end of our supply chain closer to our customers. So once we have those safety stocks, the noise of the ocean freight, which is really where we have the biggest reliability issue will be reduced.
So right now, if you look at just coming through 2021, when production was impacted and then supply chain was impacted. We couldn't produce enough and then we had problem shipping. As we can produce more, even if it's unreliable, we might, in the short term, get that impact on our invoicing. But if I can -- if each shipment gets larger and we start to build, then eventually, you'll have enough safety stock at the other end and delays. You're not going hand to mouth in terms of the material arriving and you're trying to move it as quickly so that you can invoice it out. So things will normalize. So as we move to the back end of the year, either we continue to have strong sales, and we have some of these pressures in move or in the back end, it gets much better because we are able to rebuild those inventories. So that's on the supply chain side.
On the inflation side, I think right now, we're well positioned from what we know. -- most of the pricing, as we said, will cover the inflation that's happened or that we are already forecasting. So the issue of risk there is when will we see new inflation. I think energy, as we highlighted, is the biggest issue. Europe and specifically, we've seen huge increases. The issue now is going to be how much more can we go? A lot of these are more external factors driven as we pass probably the higher risk now is in this quarter through the winter and then it will ease off. So as we go into the back end, obviously, the probabilities in both those areas improve for us.