Guillermo Novo
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Thank you, Kevin. Please turn to Slide 14. We continue to make significant progress in our transformation changing our business model, restructuring costs and improving Ashland’s profitability. We completed the business restructuring and the operating model changes. Ongoing work is now focused on dry driving continuous improvement driving focus, ownership and accountability, upgrading our management systems and processes and developing our teams. Our self-help initiatives remain on track. We continue to expect to achieve over $40 million of annual run rate of cost savings by the end of September. For savings above the $40 million, we plan to retain optionality to redeploy these savings to support our growth initiatives or if needed respond to unexpected developments. To drive additional margin improvement and improve our competitiveness, we have started to work to drive productivity and cost reductions on the cost of goods sold or COGS side of our business. We will update you as our plans progress. We're also continuing to act to improve our inventory position through near-term inventory management initiatives. Our plan is to take our more significant actions in Q4 to reduce inventory levels. Therefore, we now expect a fixed cost absorption impact of $20 million to $30 million in the September quarter. These initiatives will help generate additional cash in Q4 and the beginning of the next fiscal year. Our intent is to use this transformation as a foundation on which to grow and improve the quality of our company. In this journey, we're also advancing our planning and strategic next steps. Please turn to Slide 15. As we look at Ashland, our core business is centered around additives for specialty applications. This is a unique high quality space where innovation is critical to bring solutions to our customers. In general, additives tend to be low cost in use, but high value in use. We gain scale by leveraging these additives across multiple businesses. We want to be a premier player in this space and our intention is to grow these businesses and expand our additive portfolio. Although it's a subset of expanding additives, we will need to build our biotech capabilities. We will need to be purposeful in building and leveraging these capabilities which will mostly impact our consumer side of our portfolio. Asia will continue to be a center of growth in our markets. We will focus on accelerating our growth in Asia and we will continue to invest to expand our capabilities in this region. As I said, specialty additive value is created by understanding your customers’ needs and helping them develop new solutions through innovation. Although customer focus and innovation are already part of our DNA, we need to take it to a higher level. We will continue to build with a passion our culture around customer focus and innovation. Technology and new digital capabilities continue to transform our world. We will accelerate our digital modernization not only upgrading key operating systems but building new capabilities around plant operations, R&D and marketing. And lastly we will remain disciplined around capital allocation and our portfolio management ensuring alignment with our strategy and our expected operating performance. We recognize some of these areas will take time to start to impact our performance. But our journey has already started. The sooner we make progress, the sooner we'll see impact. Please turn to Slide 16. Although we're excited about the progress we’ve made and the opportunities that lie ahead, near-term we need to stay focused on navigating through the difficult and uncertain times created by COVID-19. So what have we seen so far in this crisis? First our portfolio has behaved as it should, more resilient. This has been led by our consumer segment but our industrial segment has also seen greater impact. But the impact has been mitigated by the diversity of the segments we serve. And some of the more consumer-driven segments are holding up better than expected things that go into packaging, things like DIY coatings. As the economies open and industries restart operation, we have seen some sequential improvement in demand. Unless the industries go back to into a shutdown mode, the trough seems to have been in the April-May timeframe. Our self-help actions have been important contributors to our performance. These are in our control and we see opportunity to do more in this area. And we started to see some mitigation of our prior year share loss. Oral care growing of our prior year share loss. Oral care is growing and we’ve started to capture new business in nutraceuticals. However, more work is needed to address some of the Avoca gaps and that is still work in progress. Given this is a pandemic-driven crisis, uncertainty continues and it remains very difficult to forecast the future. As a result, we continued to focus on scenario planning to prepare for changes and ensure we can respond quickly to both threats and opportunities rather than predicting the future. We plan, ensure corporate financial stability, identify threats and opportunities and build resilience and agility. As we look ahead, the general assumption is that a longer-term COVID-19 solution will not materialize until mid-to-late 2021. This means uncertainty on developments on how - on developments and how governments and society respond to these developments. In this environment, we assume that although we could see very different end-market specific changes, we do not expect our overall portfolio to behave differently. The highest risks for our business continues to come from supply chain and operational disruptions across the value chain impacting our suppliers, us or our customers. Government stimulus continues to reduce downside risk. And self-help actions continued to be critical to both strengthening our company in this time of crisis as well as repositioning us for the future. We will stay focused on executing our plans with urgency. Please turn to Slide 17. Given the high levels of uncertainty, we will not provide guidance for Q4 or fiscal year 2020. In the context of our scenario planning, let me provide you some commentary on our forward-looking insights. We expect no significant change in our consumer macro trends, but we are working through demand challenges in hair styling and sun care products. The remainder of the consumer portfolio has remained resilient. We will, however, need to continue work through challenges in our Avoca business. On the industrial side, if the economy continues to open and industries continue to restart operations, the demand improvement we've seen should sustain. However, future sequential month-to-month improvement for many segments are still difficult to forecast. This is particularly for coatings contractors, the construction, and the automotive manufacturing segment. As we previously mentioned, we do expect $20 million to $30 million of fixed cost absorption impact in Q4 as we work to right-size our inventory levels. We expect to continue to benefit from the ongoing SARD cost reduction actions we're taking and we expect to realize incremental benefit from lower raw material prices, but price raw material charges - changes are likely to remain balanced. To be clear, we remain keenly focused on continuing to demonstrate improvement momentum for the businesses despite the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Please turn to Slide 18. I'm confident that Ashland is well-positioned for these uncertain times. We have a strong foundation for success built on high-value businesses with leading market positions in critical industries with deep customer relationships. We also have a structure that is optimized to enhance opportunities available to each of our focused business units. We’re pursuing aggressive self-help actions to reduce working capital, capital spending and operating costs to improve profitability and also generate cash. And we maintain a strong balance sheet with more than a $1 billion of available cash and liquidity, a portfolio with resilient cash flow and a capital structure that provides ample flexibility in the most stressed scenarios. Finally, we're committed to maintaining our dividend even in these uncertain times. Please turn to Slide 20. In closing, I once again thank the Ashland team for their leadership and proactive participation in these uncertain - in this uncertain environment. We’re fortunate to be a Premier Specialty Materials Company with a high-quality businesses that have leadership position in defensive markets. I'm pleased by the resilience demonstrated by our people and businesses and look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead. Thank you. Operator let's open for Q&A.