Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmoreshipping.com. [Operator Instructions] A replay of the conference call will be accessible any time during the next 2 weeks by dialing 1 (888) 660-6345 or 1 (646) 517-4150, and entering passcode 89653. At this time, I will turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the first quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And now I will turn the call back over to Gernot.

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on Slide 3. First, I'll give you a brief overview of our first quarter highlights and cover key strategic and capital allocation actions we have taken since our last call. I will then hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Thereafter, I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. But before we discuss our earnings, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the major disruption in the Middle East and the significant impact this has had on the maritime industry, in particular, on seafarers and their families. While Ardmore has not had any ships in the region since the beginning of the conflict, we express our solidarity with those currently living through this period of hardship and distress. And we continue to engage with and actively support industry organizations, such as The Mission to Seafarers, INTERTANKO and other industry partners who have been playing a vital role in working with the people directly affected by these recent events. Now turning to Slide 4 for earnings highlights. In addition to last week's activity update and TCE guidance, we report today adjusted earnings of $23.6 million or $0.58 per share. We are declaring a dividend of $0.39 per share, in line with our recently updated dividend policy of paying out 2/3 of adjusted earnings effective Q1. Disruption in the Middle East is adding further tightness to an already firm market. Our Q1 TCE performance reflects these market conditions and momentum is accelerating into the second quarter. Our MR tankers earned $33,700 per day for the first quarter and $52,100 per day so far in the second quarter with 55% booked. Our chemical tankers earned $22,300 per day for the first quarter and $32,500 per day so far in the second quarter with 65% booked. MR spot rates are, therefore, at levels nearly 5x our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day. And as we'll discuss in the next slide, we are executing on a clear and deliberate long-term strategy, targeted fleet investment, while simultaneously increasing the return of capital to shareholders in a meaningful manner. Moving to Slide 5. Here, we highlight 3 significant updates since our last call. First, we have ordered 2 highly efficient and versatile Handysize tankers at Wuhu Shipyard at a price of $44.9 million per vessel. This price includes a $3 million upgrade package to make the vessels fully IMO2 capable, as well as advanced MarineLine tank coatings. In addition, we are commissioning further performance and safety upgrades. Deliveries are scheduled from late 2028, and we have the option to acquire 2 additional vessels on the same terms. Second, we are doubling our quarterly dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. 2025 was a heavy CapEx year, which entailed an extensive dry docking program and significant vessel efficiency and commercial upgrades. This is now behind us. Importantly, we also invested over $100 million in 3 vessel acquisitions that have substantially increased in value since, arguably by about 30% to 35% on a like-for-like basis. And as always, dynamic in our approach to capital allocation, we increased our percentage dividend payout effective this quarter. We have also agreed the opportunistic sale of a 2014-built MR tanker for $35.5 million. At the time of agreement, the delivery window was about 3 months forward, allowing us to continue participating in the strong market with delivery to the buyer expected in June 2026. We believe this is an attractive transaction, not least in conjunction with the previous newbuilding announcement and in context of the aforementioned acquisitions. Overall, these decisions reflect our disciplined through-the-cycle approach to value creation, growing the business in a thoughtful way, investing in high-quality assets that match our strategy and unique organizational capabilities, all while enabling meaningful distribution of capital to shareholders. Moving to Slide 6 for a bit more detail on the newbuildings just mentioned. The vessels will be handysize product and chemical tankers built to full IMO2 specifications with MarineLine coatings. These upgrades will enable us to trade across a wide cargo slate from mainstream oil products to edible oils, renewable fuels and complex commodity chemicals. As a reminder, we upgraded our existing chemical fleet last year with MarineLine coatings, and we are capturing significant benefits through access to premium cargo options and shortened cleaning times. We have undertaken an extensive review of shipyards in China, Korea and Japan, and we believe Wuhu offers a compelling combination of high construction quality and value. In terms of funding, we have ample capacity under our existing revolving credit facilities and access to a wide range of alternative sources. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart.

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to the market, starting with Slide 8 and some significant shifts in trade flows. This slide illustrates the rerouting of refined product cargoes as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Shortages in the East are being filled long haul from the Atlantic Basin. Flows from the U.S., Europe and West Africa are replacing lost Middle East volumes with voyage lengths roughly doubling. As Gernot mentioned, unfortunately, there are approximately 130 product tankers currently trapped in the Middle East Gulf. This is having an impact on the available vessel supply. In addition, the recent Jones Act waiver is further supporting U.S. bicoastal trade flows. Moving to Slide 9 for more detail on current market drivers. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting approximately 15% of the global oil product flows and 30% of crude flows. As a result, refining margins in the Atlantic have reached their highest level since the pandemic recovery, creating notable arbitrage. Asian refineries have needed to reduce throughput with replacement products sourced via long-haul imports from the Atlantic, boosting U.S. exports. Vessels bouncing back to the Atlantic Basin had a further layer of fleet inefficiency, tightening effective supply. This run-up in the Atlantic market has resulted in a lack of vessels in the East, accelerating rates in the Pacific in recent weeks. Product inventories have been significantly drawn down. Looking ahead, a substantial post-conflict restocking requirement should support elevated trading activity for an extended period, all while damaged refining capacity may take several years to restore with replacement volumes continuing to move on long-haul voyages. Turning to Slide 10. Looking beyond the immediate disruption and focusing on the longer-term fundamentals. Energy security is front and center, supporting long-term demand forecast. Meanwhile, refining capacity continues to shift east with closures in Europe and the U.S. adding to ton-mile demand. While the markets understandably pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, these fundamentals are driving the market over the long term. Moving to Slide 11 for the supply side. The chart on the left depicts how the MR fleet has continued to age during this century, while the current order book represents just 15% of the fleet. The Handysize segment is a connected market. But if we look at the Handy order book in isolation, it stands at just 5% against an average fleet age of 18 years. The chart on the right highlights the same story from a different angle. Within the next 5 years, half of the global MR fleet will be over 20 years old and approaching the scrapping window. As a reminder, even if these vessels are not initially scrapped as a result of strong market conditions, their utilization levels notably decline. Turning to Slide 13 and our capital allocation summary. As outlined in our late April press release and commentary today, we have been active across all pillars of our capital allocation policy. And this slide further highlights the numerous actions taken in recent quarters. We're dynamically investing in the business while returning capital to shareholders, including the doubling of our dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. Moving to Slide 14, where we detail our financial position. As always, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing TCE performance, closely managing costs and preserving a strong balance sheet. Our low cash breakeven level of $11,700 per day or $10,800 per day, excluding dry dock CapEx, gives us financial flexibility. Considering forward new build CapEx, which we can fund through our existing credit facilities or other alternatives, overall pro forma leverage remains at a modest level. Turning to Slide 15 for financial highlights. Ardmore is well positioned with strong operating leverage. Every $10,000 per day increase in TCE rates translates to an additional nearly $2 per share in annual earnings. For the first quarter, we are reporting adjusted EBITDAR of $37.3 million and as noted earlier, earnings per share of $0.58. We continue to frame EBITDAR as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. A full reconciliation is in the appendix alongside our second quarter guidance figures. Moving to Slide 16 for fleet operations. As a reminder, we have limited dry docking activity through 2027. Existing fleet capital expenditure is expected to decline significantly to approximately $8 million this year versus $30 million last year. We have our refreshed fleet on the water capturing the current market. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Great. Thank you, Bart. Moving to Slide 18. Allow me to summarize. On top of compelling long-term fundamentals, product markets continue to experience significant near-term disruption driving ton-mile demand as is reflected in our TCE performance on this slide. Commodity dislocation and product supply gaps, urgent inventory restocking needs as well as continued structural demand growth point to sustained strength. Ardmore continues to progress through a disciplined, deliberate and dynamic approach to capital allocation. We have made targeted investments in the fleet over the past years through value-focused newbuilding and secondhand acquisitions as well as upgrades to the existing fleet, all while increasing shareholder returns and maintaining responsible debt levels. As always, our investment decisions are guided by the company's strategy, strong corporate governance and a long-term value approach. We now welcome your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Jon Chappell with Evercore.

I'll start with the dividend policy. I know you've spoken about it a little bit in the prepared remarks, but just trying to understand the timing and the thought process behind it. Again, I understand you've sold the vessel, you have far less capital commitments as it relates to fleet maintenance this year. But is this kind of a sign that investing in this part of the cycle where asset values where they are, just doesn't offer the same type of returns that you think a doubling of the capital return policy to the investors provides?

Yes. Great question, Jon. I think we really want to look at dividend policy as a subset of returning capital to shareholders as part of our capital allocation policy, which we've been quite consistent with. If you go back to end of 2024, of course, we saw some opportunity in our stock price, and we did some buybacks, continue to pay dividends all throughout. But last year, we also saw some really interesting opportunities to reinvest in the fleet through the acquisitions we've mentioned, some really interesting retrofits, paid down the pref on top of the interesting refi, and we're able to also pay back some debt. So I think for us, this is really a way to reshift and rebalance, acknowledging, of course, that half of debt prices have moved up, but also not in any way, I think, taking away from this kind of rebalanced approach to capital allocation that you really need to see across quarters and across the whole game, which will continue to balance thoughtful and measured reinvestment in the fleet with returning capital to shareholders while maintaining healthy debt levels.

Okay. That makes sense. And then as it relates to fleet strategy, I know you have a couple of time charter outs right now. It feels like in the larger crude asset classes, time charter rates have spiked to all-time record highs, and there seems to be a pretty decent amount of liquidity, especially in the [ VEs ]. Is there a similar thing transpiring in the MR and chem market? And if there is, what's your appetite to kind of lock in at some of these really elevated rates with guaranteed cash flows versus maintaining that optionality in the spot market that you speak to?

So time charter rates have definitely reacted and moved up significantly. We have not executed on those time charters in the past quarter because we don't quite feel that the value proposition is maybe as pronounced as you would see in crude tankers. And sometimes these things take some time to build just to the nature of the timing and the rhythm of the time charter markets. But we'll continue to monitor that. We, of course, do take note that a lot of the time charter interest right now is coming from oil majors, refiners and major traders, including some long-term interest, and we think that's really encouraging. And we have in the past, opportunistically engaged in time charters out and time charters in. But for now, we've been monitoring, and we're looking at it with great interest, of course.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Omar Nokta with Clarksons Securities.

Clearly, nice quarter, and it looks like definitely more to come. I just want to ask, you've got the MRs, which are historically and continue to be your biggest footprint. You've also got the chemical tankers or the handy chemical tankers. Can you just talk a little bit about those segments and how they performed in this market given the Hormuz disruption just in terms of the 37 and the 25 deadweight that you have? Are those capturing similar earnings together? Or would you say there's a detachment where the 37s are closer to the MRs and the 25s are separate? Any color you can give on how those are traded?

Yes. I think this is actually a great question and maybe something we didn't highlight enough. For us, the order we committed to, these are handysize tankers that cover the full range of liquid products, which includes chemicals, but this is really all about creating trading options for these ships and for the company. It's not some fundamental philosophical leaning deeper into chemicals. For us, it's always been enabling the full range of oil products, which, of course, includes jet fuel and naphtha and all the other road fuels that are in extremely high demand. And equally then alternative cargoes, emerging cargoes because we think this offers really interesting long-term strategic perspectives for the business. And in the near term, it already offers substantial triangulation opportunities. So these ships that we have ordered and the way we're approaching our existing chemical tankers too, these ships are fully conversant in both markets. And we will basically continue to follow the money and just benefit from this added optionality. So right now, even our 25,000 toners that you mentioned, which make up the majority of our existing chemical fleet, half the size of an MR, and typically, under sort of normalized market conditions, they would probably trade 90% in non-CPP cargoes, but we have been redirecting those ships where they now trade almost exclusively CPP because that's where the money is. So really, for us, about trading options, not trading obligations, and continuing to be very versatile players across the full spectrum of products and nonproduct cargoes.

Okay. That's quite detailed and helpful. And I guess then just as you place those orders and you look to be something that you're looking to be a bit more opportunistic on as you see an opportunity there, as we kind of think about then your footprint going forward, not necessarily saying you're going to potentially deemphasize MRs because clearly, that's your main market, but should we kind of think about you potentially pivoting into maybe expanding more within that business or maybe bringing them both together in size over the long term?

Yes. I think very important, the way we treat these ships already is in a very integrated fashion where we don't have a separated sort of product or separated chemical part of the business, very much the relationships, cargo flows, market insights are used in a very integrated fashion. So for us, it's really just continued progress along this product and chemical space. For us, we felt like these ships really are terrific strategic fit given our current and our forward strategy. We will continue to follow all sources of deal flow, of course, as we have in the past. It felt that last year, there was a much stronger value in secondhand MRs where we saw values drop by arguably 20%, 25% on the back of concerns on tariffs and what that could mean for the global economy, liberation day and the likes. And we then acted very decisively on MRs. And of course, that was money well spent, given the fact that they are under money by 30%, 35%. And we now saw the value proposition much clearer on these very forward-looking, very versatile fuel-efficient assets. If you compare the price between the 12-year-old MR we just sold to the newbuildings, we're committing to the delta on a like-for-like basis is less than $10 million. So again, it is a combination of strategic fit on one hand, which is products, products with full versatility and flexibility to trade into more complex cargoes, but of course, there's a strategic fit and then there's opportunity and just relative value and being opportunistic at times when we have that -- when the market gives us that chance.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.