Earnings Labs

Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 4, 2014

$17.13

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day everyone and welcome to the Ardmore Shipping’s Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the Company's Web site at ardmoreshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next two weeks by dialing 888-203-1112. Again that’s 888-203-1112; or 719-457-0820. That’s 719-457-0820 and entering the passcode 6821251. That’s 6821251. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Anthony Gurnee, Chief Executive Officer for Ardmore Shipping. Please go ahead sir.

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Thank you very much. Good morning and welcome to Ardmore Shipping’s third quarter earnings call. First, let me ask our CFO, Paul Tivnan, to describe the format for the call and discuss forward-looking statements.

Paul Tivnan

Management

Thanks, Tony and welcome everyone. Before we begin our conference call, I would like to direct all participants to our Web site at ardmoreshipping.com, where you will find a link to this morning's third quarter 2014 earnings release and presentation. Tony and I will take about 15 minutes to go through the presentation and then open up the call to questions. Turning to Slide 2, please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the third quarter 2014 earnings release, which is available on our Web site. And now I will turn the call back over to Tony.

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Thank you, Paul. On the call today, we will highlight our third quarter performance and recent market activity, discuss our chartering outlook and newbuilding program, provide an update on the product and chemical sectors. Paul will then discuss our financial results and I will talk about share repurchase plan and then we'll recap and open up the call for questions. So turning first to Slide 5, we are reporting a net profit of $117,000 for the third quarter, our second profitable quarter in a row, which we’ve achieved in an otherwise challenging charter market environment. The results reflect strong chartering performance with Eco-design MRs earning $15,237 per day and Eco-mod’s $13,919 at the lower end of escalating rates. As we’ll mention later on, due to escalating rates in the charter parties, the same charters in the fourth quarter for Eco-Mod’s will yield $14,400 per day. The other main driver of our results is our efficient operations and low corporate overhead which adds meaningfully to earnings. The big news though is that the MR charter market is now improving rapidly, with Atlantic triangulation now at $20,500 and the Pacific at $17,900. Reflecting this strength are three spot trading vessels earning an estimated average of $18,500 on voyages in progress. Market outlook for MRs is now very positive and Ardmore is well positioned to benefit from strengthening rates through our spot vessels, charter renewals over the next three or four months and five newbuildings delivering in the first quarter of 2015. Turning now to Slide 6, ironically over the last six weeks, our stock prices moved in the opposite direct to our improving business prospects and our shares are now trading at what we believe is a significant discount to their inherent value. Accordingly we’re initiating a share repurchase plan for up…

Paul Tivnan

Management

Thanks Tony. Starting with Slide 15, as Tony mentioned we are pleased to confirm that we have secured bank finance for entire fleets following the facility at NIBC for the Seamariner. In doing so we have further extended our Bank group to six leading shipping banks affording us considerable support and financial flexibility for further growth. Our total debt as of September 30, was $219 million and we have approximately $210 million in committed finance available for our new building program. Moving on to Slide 16, the Company’s earnings continue to grow in line with seek [ph] growth and improved charter rates. Our rates have improved year-on-year despite the softness in the spot markets illustrating the importance of having a balanced employment strategy. The Company reported adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million which represents an increase of $2.7 million from the third quarter of 2013. Revenue was $18.9 million, an increase of $8.3 million from the same period last year. Operating cost for Eco-design vessels were $5,782 per day and our Eco-mod vessels were on average for both products and chemicals $6,660 per day for the nine months ended September. Depreciation and amortization for the third quarter was $4.6 million and we expect depreciation and amortization in the fourth quarter to be approximately $5.9 million. Corporate overhead costs were $2.1 million in the third quarter, which is on target and on a per ships basis is amongst the lowest of the peers. Our interest and finance costs were $1.1 million, in line with the third quarter of last year. Interest and finance costs are a measure of capitalized interest costs related to the newbuildings in the quarter of $1 million. We expect the capitalized interest cost in the fourth quarter to be around $1.3 million. The above results showed a net…

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Thanks Paul. So if you turn to Slide 20, as you can see on the graph, our stock prices have undergone a remarkable disconnect from the MR charter market and our business prospects. We believe that Ardmore shares are now trading at a very large discount to their impact value and that this presents an opportunity not just for savvy investors that just got in, but also for the company to build value for shareholders by essentially investing in its own fleet at a knocked down price. Accordingly, we’re instituting a share repurchase program of up to $20 million over a three year period in order to capitalize on any continuing or future stock market dislocation. Turning to Slide 22 then and summary, we’re pleased to report strong financial results in the third quarter resulting from superior chartering performance and efficient operations along with low corporate overhead, all of which adds meaningfully to shareholder value. The MR Spot market is improving rapidly moving into the winter months and Ardmore is well positioned to benefit from this through a combination of spot vessels, well planned T3 renewals and our newbuilding employment strategy. On top of this, I’d like to emphasize again the point Paul made regarding operating leverage. Everyone $1,000 today across the fleet adds $0.34 to earnings per share, which we believe is the highest among our peers and signifies outsized earnings upside for Ardmore. Bank debt is now in place for the whole fleet including newbuildings which is a milestone for the company. We took our time on financing and feel we achieved excellent pricing in terms and we now have a strong bank group to support further growth. Our conservative balance sheet reflects good corporate stewardship and signifies capacity for continued growth as a means to build shareholder value. We’re announcing a $20 million share repurchase plan to capitalize on any continuing or future stock market dislocation. And finally, we declared our quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share on October 15th which yields 4% per annum at the current share price. Thanks for your time. And we’re now pleased to open up the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you sir [Operator Instructions]. And for our first question we go to Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Jon Chappell - Evercore

Analyst

Quick technical question on one of the newbuilds. I noticed in the press release that two of the late ’14 deliveries are pushed back into January '15. Was that your call, just to get a 2015 stamp on the assets or was there some delays with the shift yard that forced the delay?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

No, it's our call to put them into 2015.

Jon Chappell - Evercore

Analyst

Okay, and you don’t have to pay any penalties or merge type fees for that?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

No.

Jon Chappell - Evercore

Analyst

Okay, with the Eco-chemical new build, you had mentioned that there had been significant interest from charterers. How are you kind of looking at the duration of any potential time charters for those ships, vis-à-vis the optimism you talked about in the market?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

We’re really in discussions on a range of structures and durations. So we’re just going to settle on which one we feel is going to maximize value. But it ranges from kind of spot arrangements to one year TC.

Jon Chappell - Evercore

Analyst

Okay, so one year tops. And what kind of premiums relative to the Eco-mod ships are you expecting and are you approaching in those discussions?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

We expect that these ships are a little bit smaller than MRs. So I think you could scale back the premium that you see between standard and Eco-design MRs but it’s probably two thirds to three quarters of that level, may be $1,500 a day.

Jon Chappell - Evercore

Analyst

Got it, last thing, and probably a two parter. When you look at the use of your capital, now you’re fully financed, you mentioned in the press release you’re still looking at ships, whether they are in kind of one offs or blocks. Then also obviously with the new buyback program, how do you kind of weigh the desire to continue to grow the fleet versus the complete dislocation in your stock versus the asset values and just the final part of that, the $20 million starting point, do you view that as just the starting point or is $20 million basically all the liquidity you have at this point to pledge towards buybacks?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Well, I mean to answer the last part first, I think we -- the Board has approved a $20 million plan and as we work into that, if the opportunity continues and the resources exist for us to continue acquiring shares, I think we would expand the program. But it’s really something that we’ll just address at the time. In terms of do we buy ships or shares, it really depends on the relative attractiveness at the time, which is the function of stock -- the share price as well as the other acquisition opportunities.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question we go to Noah Parquette with Canaccord.

Noah Parquette - Canaccord

Analyst

I have kind of a question on the broader industry actually. With -- following the oil price and bunker levels coming down, as the calculation for the optimal to be changed and you see any of the vessels start to speed up? Are your ships going faster as the Eagle class type vessel kind of keeping things lower?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

I think we’re beginning to see a little bit of speeding up but not really very much. To answer the question relatively briefly it’s -- we’ve seen some instances but it’s hard to tell whether it’s a function of just cancelation dates or timing of deliveries as those two pure economic calculations.

Operator

Operator

And we go next to Omar Nokta with Clarkson Capital Markets.

Omar Nokta - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst

Just wanted to ask about the charter strategy going forward. You sound obviously very optimistic. The market has been very strong. You have a handful of charters that rollup around year end, early next year. What’s your thinking redeployment for those ships?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Again, it depends on what the alternatives are at the time. These are existing and strong relationships which we would like to continue with and expand and it’s a matter of tracking the right price in the market but I think they appreciate the service we provide and the relationships I expect, most of those will continue. And in some cases we might even expand them. But it’s really very much a market driven negotiation and depends on what's happening at the time.

Omar Nokta - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay, so it's something like maybe a continued 70-30 split, something on that lines or something to think about going forward?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Well, it'd probably be less because as you know the four MR new buildings delivering next year all go in with a major oil trader into a commercial spot trading arrangement. And so I'd say our balance of TC versus Spot will lean more heavily towards Spot going into 2015. Part of that is just a way we have designed the portfolio and part of it is we just see more opportunity in the Spot market now.

Omar Nokta - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay, thanks and then just one financial question for Paul. Can you just give us a sense of what the -- I know all the CapEx is financed but I just want to get a numbers basis for what’s expected for the fourth quarter and what’s remaining to be paid in 2015?

Paul Tivnan

Management

So, the total CapEx for the new building program from the end of September is about $230 million and because we now have the two ships that were expected to deliver in early December now being pushed back to January. That’s pretty much a 2015 number. I think there might be about maybe $10 million in the fourth quarter but the bulk of it is all 2015 now.

Omar Nokta - Clarkson Capital Markets

Analyst

And then just maybe on that -- the push out to 2015, is that simply just -- or it could be a 2015 built vessel or is there any other reason you wanted to delay it?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

No, I mean it’s having 2015 [indiscernible] arguably out as the couple of million dollars to the value. So it’s very much an opportunity for us and a way to create additional value and a ship in January is better than a ship in December.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We’ll go next to Fotis Giannakoulis with Morgan Stanley.

Fotis Giannakoulis - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Most of my questions have been answered but I want to ask on the agreement that you have with Vitol. You have some vessels in that pool with then. How is this going? How is it performing versus the rest of your fleet and if there are any further discussions compared to what we had about a year ago?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Yes, so that you [indiscernible] it, the Vitol is the major oil trader we refer to. So we will have -- when all four ships deliver, we’ll have a total of six ships on the Vitol. Currently we have two on time charter, and then four will be go into spot commercial arrangement. That was the deal that we set with them from the start. It was going to be that ratio of time charter and spot. So far we don’t have ships spot trading with them but operationally the performance of the two ships that have gone on to TC is good and a great relationship and we’re looking forward to the new ones delivering. As you know Vitol is the world’s largest oil trader. I think last year they controlled 10% of all the world’s oil movements, and so as consequence, they’re in a great position to maximize returns on their fleet through superior information and higher utilization. And our four ships will be part of that.

Fotis Giannakoulis - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

One more question about the change in oil price system. Obviously the first impact for you and your customer sees the decline in fuel expenses. If with Bunker [ph] fuel is having decline in the last three-four months over $100 per tonne, that should be around $3,000 of benefit for your customers. How much of this benefit is being transferred to you and how much the ship owners of product carriers, they can negotiate higher rates and when do you expect this to be able to happen?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Good question and I’d like to address that little more broadly as well but firstly regarding Bunker [ph] pricing, I think as a rule of thumb in a rising market the benefit of the decline in the price of fuel accrues to the owner but in a declining market the charter has the upper hand and they'll squeeze that out of the negotiation. So right now because we’re in a rising market we think it’s additionally benefiting and we’re not getting the sense that it's a major component in discussions in terms of setting spot rates at the moment.

Fotis Giannakoulis - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

And can you also address how the overall decline in oil prices and we heard that the [indiscernible], where it used to OSP [ph] to the U.S. and increased slightly the OSP [ph] to Asia, how does this change the trading routes and what are the implications if there are any for the product tanker market and the trade?

Anthony Gurnee

Management

Yes, so that’s the really I think the key question and our view and our answer is that it’s all positive for product tankers and the reason why the price of oil has dropped is not because of significant a decline in demand. It’s maybe a little bit more muted demand growth than expected but it’s really largely over supply. So the drop in prices has created a essentially [indiscernible] oil which then provides arbitrage opportunities on a long haul basis not just for crude but also for product. So we’re seeing a lot of long haul wagers taking place, now not just with MRs but bigger product tankers as well, driven by price arbitrage. And then so I think that also calls in not so much necessarily increased fluidic [ph] storage but also delays on arrival in terms of scheduling discharge. So a lot of ship days have been used up right now on long haul voyages than waiting to discharge and that’s definitely helping the market at the moment, and we believe that will continue as long as the low oil price and the circumstances surrounding that continue, which seems to be pretty persistent. The third point though is okay, so basically we’re benefitting from lower bunker prices, from increased demand created by long haul arbitrage opportunities and delays in discharge. So the third thing I think that is evident is that as the price of oil remains low, it is going to spur greater economic activity, which is going to increase demand. So I think, in particular in emerging economies that could make a big difference. So we view that the current situation in terms of global oil supply and demand and price is all positive for the business.

Operator

Operator

And with that ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions on our roster. And this will conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. [Call Ended Abruptly]