Heath Sampson
Analyst · Sameer Joshi of H.C. Wainwright, your line is open
Well, thanks, Greg. I’d like to take a moment to discuss our future outlook. Let's turn to Slide 7 and briefly discuss the Refined Coal backdrop. As we have previously discussed over the last several quarters, we continue to see tailwinds surrounding Tinuum efforts to close additional facilities. These tailwinds are the results of IRS tax clarification achieved in early 2018 and increasing clarity on certain divisions within the tax bill, which is how tax equity investors better understand the true impact of tax reform on their businesses. On the other hand, our biggest challenge to obtaining new tax equity investors remains the public and political stigma of being associated with coal-fired power generation. Tinuum works hard to educate prospective investors that this tax incentive was instrumental in enabling the development of mercury control technologies and as a whole Refined Coal truly helps reduce harmful emissions. Turning to Slide 8, you can see the number of invested facilities versus the number of waiting for tax equity investor or waiting to be installed as of March 31, 2019. So as of today, we have 20 invested facilities and eight uninvested. To maximize this Refined Coal opportunity and secure additional investors for the remaining units, Tinuum has proactively installed facilities in preparation for investment, and two are currently in the installation phase. During 2018, Tinuum has spent roughly $17 million related to capital expenditures, nearly all of which was engineering and installation costs. Tinuum and its members, including us, would certainly not be incurring these costs if we were not confident that we will translate into future invested RC facilities. We have active ongoing conversations with potential tax equity investors for several facilities. Should we finalize deals on our current discussions, they have the potential to add additional 8 million tons to 9 million tons to Tinuum's total in 2019, bringing the full incremental annual tons to approximately 12 million. Again, we expect to close an additional facility in the 3 million ton to 4 million ton range next month. Let's turn to Slide 10 for an update of our expected future RC cash flows. As of March 31, 2019, and inclusive of 20 Refined Coal facilities invested with third-party investors, we are reaffirming our expected net RC cash flows to range between $200 million and $225 million to ADES through the end of 2021. This has been our number one priority, and our commitment to leasing or selling the idle units is unaffected by our integration and scaling of the PGI Segment. Also remember that the Refined Coal business is run by an experienced management team with involvement from its owners, including us, for oversight and strategic guidance. This structure will allow us to continue to execute in Refined Coal, while devoting the resources necessary to simultaneously integrate and grow our assets. Let's flip to Slide 11 and quickly review our strategy. This slide shows our roadmap for the new ADES and how we plan to leverage our new asset to become the North American leader in activated carbon within multiple diversified industries. We are already attractively positioned for profitable growth due to the completion of our new leading position in the segment. The mercury control market in North America is competitive; it has undergone many changes over the past few years as coal burned has shifted to natural gas. As a result, many coal-fired power generation – generators have dramatically reduced headcount and are continuously looking for cost savings. They simply do not have the bandwidth or resources anymore to compete at significant scale. They are now looking for fewer strategic vendors that can provide more for less. We are best positioned to be the supplier of choice for this changing power market. Gaining incremental share within the North American mercury control market by driving performance, either by pricing power or premium service for products, is priority number one. Next, we are also positioned today to achieve further penetration into the municipal water treatment market. This is a 100 million pound demand environment in the U.S. and is growing, providing immediate – immediately addressable adjacent market to grow with it. It is also a highly fragmented space comprised of many producers and resellers. This initial opportunity of this market will not require any material incremental plant investment or expand our presence – to expand our presence. To better position ourselves in this space, we have focused on the – focused a limited number of existing personnel here and believe this will lead to positive results. Longer-term, we aim to grow our share in industry that commands premium products and, thus, premium price points. We see a bigger opportunity in the broader consumer and commercial water market, estimated to be 310 million pounds per year. As everyone has seen over the years, clean water is increasingly demand both here and across the globe. This market commands higher margins by approximately 20% to 25% compared to mercury control and has higher growth rates. However, entering this market would require upgrades and capital to the existing facility or more expensive feedstocks. In addition to positioning ourselves as the leader for North American mercury capture and activated carbon, and pursuing adjacent markets opportunity such as water, we will also evaluate international markets as mercury control regulations outside the U.S. mature, as well as adjacent segments like oil and gas, food and beverage or other consumer products. The broader water market and other more specialized adjacent market opportunities have higher growth rates and higher margins. Nothing less, these initiatives – are initiatives of tomorrow. As we are focused immediately on organic growth within mercury control and municipal water. One note regarding our activated carbon assets that most significantly impacted PGI segment is that we will be entering a period of scheduled downtime for planned maintenance during the second quarter. These scheduled downtimes are expected, as they occur every 18 to 24 months for a period of two to three weeks and are required to ensure our plant continues to be the best-in-class facility. In preparation for the scheduled downtime, we built sufficient inventory to service our customers appropriately. As we mentioned last quarter, we will provide additional guidance for our consolidated company and PGI segment during our second quarter 2019 earnings call. However, it may be helpful to point out seasonality in this business for context to this quarter's results and expectations for the remainder of the year. Coal-fired power dispatch is greatly affected by weather. Our largest customer footprint is in the lower Midwest and South. As such, the demand is high in the third quarter, when air-conditioning is needed. Additionally, the fourth quarter has high customer demand as the summer end and the customers complete their year-end orders. The second quarter followed by the first quarter are generally the slowest quarters for our business. Additionally, we expect to have new customers starting up in the second half of the year. In summary, we expect the second half of the year to have higher revenue and margin than the first half. Again, we look forward to providing more guidance for the remainder of 2019 next quarter. Moving on to Slide 12. Let's recap our return of capital plan. Since the start of the capital allocation program in the second quarter of 2017, the company has paid $40 million in dividends and utilized capital of $42 million to repurchase shares. We paid our fourth quarter dividend on March 6th and our second quarter dividend declared yesterday will be paid on June 7th. These initiatives remain a key focus of ours and we believe we generate sufficient cash flows to both honor our capital return commitments and invest into the business. Finally, let's review our 2019 priorities on Slide 13. Unchanged from prior years is our ongoing commitment to leasing RC facilities and supporting Tinuum in their efforts to secure tax equity investors. Maximizing RC cash flows will continue to be our first focus. Our second strategic goal will be the integration of our newly acquired assets, people and operations to immediately capture share in the North American mercury control tax market. We will simultaneously evaluate and pursue adjacent attractive opportunities in higher growth verticals like water. We see compelling opportunities to increase utilization rates within our recently acquired assets and generate high-margin revenue. And finally, we will continue to return capital to our shareholders through our continued commitment to our quarterly dividend program, as well as the opportunistic repurchasing of outstanding shares. So with that, I'll take a few questions.