Michael Weinstein
Analyst · DGHM Funds
I'm happy to. I was going to give you an update in my closing remarks. So it's very hard -- just for background for everybody, a referendum is on the ballot in November to allow for casino gaming as long as the -- and the issuance of 2 licenses for casinos 72 miles away from Atlantic City. The site that everybody seems to be most interested in, although it is not named in the referendum, that's part of an RFP proposal that will be put in front of some government-appointed board for approval. The site that everybody seems to think is the best site is the racetrack in Meadowlands, which is in Secaucus New Jersey, and we are an 11.6% owner of the company that owns -- the limited partnership that owns the Meadowlands Racetrack. We are not a general partner, we are a limited partner. In addition to being a limited partner in the ownership, we have an exclusive on all food and beverage in the casino is built there. Right now, under a management agreement, which has no effect on the P&Ls in Ark -- we run it, I guess, pro bono. We run the food and beverage at the racetrack right now. The legislation requires that whoever gets a license must have, as a partner, a casino license holder in Atlantic City. That limits the field dramatically and the strongest candidate would be MGM. MGM has had discussions with us. They are not going anywhere now. They don't have to go anywhere from MGM's point of view because they can sit back and wait until the referendum passes, or it doesn't pass, to make a decision whether or not they want a partnership. And it's mandated that they have at least 50% ownership, not MGM, but any casino operator in Atlantic City that's chosen to do this project for 1 of the 2 licenses. So the 2 licenses, we think, one will be issued if the referendum is successful, one would be issued to the Meadowlands, and we think one will be issued in Jersey City where Paul Fireman, the former owner of Reebok, has staked out some property that he thinks would be a good location. There's a lot of politics swirling around it; it changes every day. Right now, there is an opposition group that's starting to show up with television ads and newspaper ads called Bad Bet, New Jersey. That's being funded by Genting, who owns and operates the Aqueduct Racetrack in New York. And it's being funded, we know, by Penn Gaming, who has gaming interests in Pennsylvania. We're not sure whether the Venetian, who also has gaming interest in this. They're just a part of that group. But that's going to be a well-heeled group, and I think you'll see extensive opposition ad campaign from them. We have, on our side, a commitment for a $10 million social media campaign that had started on August 3, and it is just getting underway to take us through September, at which point, we'll do more polling. When I say we, the group that's part of the limited partnership will do new polling and try to figure out what the capital requirements are to take the campaign -- a positive campaign -- from September -- the end of September into the November election. We did not put up any money in terms of the $10 million campaign. That's being loaned by our other partners. In the past, we have loaned $1.7 million to the project because we required design changes and took out another food operator -- would have had another food operator -- and we put up $1.7 million. So essentially, we've overfunded in terms of our debt -- or our loan because there were no other loans up until this point. So the $10 million, our $1.7 million represents a greater portion than our 11.6%, so we didn't have to fund any part of this campaign. My guess is from conversations we've had amongst ourselves -- I mean, there are weekly conversations going on -- that there will be a requirement for a minimum of another $10 million to $15 million. And it is sort of understood that we're the small player in this thing, and we will not be participating in any further loans in terms of the marketing of the positive campaign to try to get the referendum passed. So I don't think, at this point, anybody is expecting us to put up any money. Bruce, it's very hard. There's new information coming every day. It's very hard to figure out where the politics is. The sports betting issue comes into play now as well. The strongest argument for the casino is the state is broke, desperately needs money. Taj Mahal closed. It had nothing to do with a casino in the north. Everything that is bad about Atlantic City is the competition coming from Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New York. A casino in this lot is not going to make anything materially worse. It's already terrible. It's a smaller field now, they'll be down to 4 casinos when Taj closes. Those casinos should -- are now operating cash flow positive from my understanding, all-in. They'll continue to be cash flow positive. Atlantic City is a disgrace. The casinos had operated for years there, did not put any money into the city. You walk down there, it's scary looking. This referendum will put money -- significant money from the tax the state charges back into Atlantic City to improve the infrastructure and clean up the city. So there are very positive arguments for it: Jobs, probably $400 million a year going to the state from the tax -- which they haven't clarified by the way, but that's the best guesstimate that we have so far. I think there's a positive case to be made. Whether the negative case or the positive case will even be heard by the voter in this election year is also questionable. How you get through all of this noise from the presidential election. So I can't even give you an estimate. MGM came out with a strange press release a couple of days ago, where they talked about Jersey and their wait and see attitude. And basically, they thought it was close and maybe a little bit against the passage of the referendum, but they thought it was close, and they'll do more polling as well come September, October and see what moves they want to make, if any. I don't think Caesars is a player. I think the strongest opponent of the Atlantic City group of casino license owners is probably resorts. Morris Bailey owns resorts. He doesn't want to see a casino in the North. I don't know how much he's contributing to Bad Bet. We have -- we're operating 2 restaurants and resorts. We're doing great there. We're up 6%, 7% in sales over last year. And who would've thought in a dying community that we would be operating successfully? So I really don't have anything to predict other than I think it's going to be messy from the political side. I think there's a lot of noise that the voters are going to have to work their way through to even get to the referendum and the facts about the referendum. The other thing that's probably beneficial is there are only 2 referendums on the ballot. This and another referendum are going to be the things that stick out. My guess -- and I said this to Jeff Karalus, my partner -- I think no matter what you do, somebody walks into that voting booth and they're going to not know what they're checking off. That's my guess. So I think it's all by chance. That's my answer, Bruce.