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Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Tue, May 9, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Antero Resources First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please also note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy. Please go ahead.

Michael N. Kennedy - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you for joining us for Antero's first quarter 2017 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call, Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you, Mike. And thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to discuss productivity gains that we continue to achieve through our advanced completions, highlight a couple of notable pads that were recently placed to sales and provide updates on key infrastructure projects that influence our development plan going forward. Glen will then highlight our first quarter financial results, and discuss our peer-leading liquids-rich position and development plan, which provides us with a material uplift on our realized pricing. Finally, Glen will conclude with a summary and the operational flexibility and the integrated business strategy at Antero, and how this provides us with tremendous long-term operational visibility. Let's begin with discussing the operational momentum that has continued at Antero over the last few years. As illustrated on slide number 2, entitled Marcellus completion evolution, the main chart shows the evolution of Antero's completions over the last few years, and the productivity gains we've achieved during this time. As you can see on the bottom left of the graph, the dark green diamonds represent wells completed with our legacy completion design, using 1,250 pounds or less of proppant per foot, and 32 barrels of water per foot on average. These 2015 completions support the 1.7 Bcf per 1,000 feet-type curve, at which the majority of our reserves are currently booked. Moving up and to the right, the red diamonds represent wells completed with 1,500 pounds per foot of proppant and 34 barrels per foot of water, essentially the recipe that we've used in 2016. As outlined on the insert graph at the top left of this slide, many of these wells now have over a year of production history and continue to support a 2.0 Bcf per 1,000 feet-type curve. Then towards the…

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you, Paul. In my comments today, I will highlight our first quarter financial results, including price realizations and EBITDAX margins, further discuss Antero's liquids rich development plan and realized pricing uplift and conclude with a summary of our integrated business plan and how it positions us for success in both the near-term and long-term outlook. Let's first look at some of the key highlights from the quarter. Production averaged a record 2.144 Bcfe a day for the quarter, including a record 99,000 barrels a day of liquids. The liquids production during the quarter consisted of over 7,000 barrels a day of oil, and approximately 92,000 barrels a days of NGLs, representing a 45% increase from the prior-year quarter, and a 14% increase sequentially as we remain the largest NGL producer in Appalachia. The outperformance we've seen over the quarter, most notably around liquids production, plays a prominent role in our long-term strategy as it boosts our production and price realizations, which I will expand on in just a minute. In fact, Antero was also the largest producer in Appalachia in the first quarter on a gas equivalent basis at 2.144 Bcfe a day. Moving on to realized pricing during the quarter, we had another outstanding quarter for both realized gas and liquids pricing. We realized a $0.03 premium to NYMEX Henry Hub or $3.35 per Mcf before hedges on our gas production during the quarter, that's dry gas only. This is the third quarter in a row that we have realized a premium to NYMEX prices. Even with local indices beginning to tighten, our extensive firm transport portfolio still proves to be a valuable asset to Antero, enabling us to continue moving our gas to the most favorable markets and consistently achieving a premium to NYMEX. We realized a…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from Neal Dingmann of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. Paul for...

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

...I guess for yourself or one of the guys there, just wondering has the recent improvement, certainly notable improvement we've seen in Appalachian NGLs, has that changed, how you think about potential drilling plans for the latter part of this year or I should say the second half of this year given just the improvement we've seen or is the plan still pretty much in place?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

The plan is pretty much in place. Most of what we're drilling is quite rich and so we'll be able to take advantage of improving liquids prices, but steady as she goes, we don't see any reason to change the plan.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then just lastly, it seems now you're certainly much more in development mode, and the costs are reflecting that. When I look now at the plans for the remainder of the year, you mentioned a couple of four-well pads, what is sort of your optimal pad design, when you look at that for going forward in this developmental mode?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Well, optimal is, the more laterals, the better. We're going to average nine laterals per pad this year. So that's pretty good. It could increase a little bit more, probably 10 wells, maybe 12 wells would be the most we've experienced and seen out there. So we're happy in that 10-ish range that gives us five north-directed, and five south-directed, and that works well, it works well for efficiencies on rigs, and also zipper fracs.

Neal D. Dingmann - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Perfect. Thanks so much for the details.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Hi, Holly. Looks like we may have lost Holly, we can come back around on Holly...

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah, yeah.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

...later.

Operator

Operator

My apologies. It looks like we have James Sullivan of Atlantic Global Advisors (sic) [Alembic Global Advisors].

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Hey, James.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. I just want to step back for a minute here, taking a longer view on your hedge book here. As your gas production base gets bigger, do you see there having to be a philosophical shift in any way in the percentage of hedge coverage you guys would like to have in any given year, is there a size issue or can you just comment on that a little bit?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. As we get larger and larger, it takes more work to hedge 100%, so we'll play that by year going forward. The most we've been able to – well, I don't know about able to, but the most we've put in place is 2-plus Bcf a day of hedging and can we keep pace as our production climbs? Probably, but it does take some effort. So, we're watching on that and we'll see, we may be less than a 100% hedged in the future, but we'll just play it by year and see how liquid the futures markets are.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you guys for that. So, I just want to switch gears real quick and talk about that on the added acreage you guys disclosed there. I think you added some in southern Doddridge County, you also talked about the highlight pad down there also getting closer to the 2.2 Bcf per 1,000 feet kind of core cut-off range there, obviously I assume those two dynamics are related a little bit. Can you talk about how extensive or how much the one what you're seeing on the drilling side was playing into what you guys are doing on the acreage side?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Well, the good news is that the drilling is playing in quite well to what we're doing on the acreage side. We continue to add to block up, we've got a number of key outposts that we key off of that tell us the geology is going to be good, where we're taking leases. So, our view of how it's going to turn out is being proved up as we drill. So everything that we're adding in terms of acreage is pretty well defined and disciplined and really will lead to more development in the development program. We're not doing any wildcat outposts obviously, everything – we have I think probably close to a 100% success rate. So, we add acreage but the development plan is proving out where we're adding the acreage at.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate it.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Hi, Holly.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Hi, let's try this again. Can you hear me now?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Good morning. Yeah.

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Great. Okay. Can we maybe talk just about NGL realizations? Was there anything maybe different you saw in the market this quarter or things that you guys did differently? I mean, you are nicely above where the guidance is on realizations for the full year.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. Holly, I think it was primarily just tighter differentials in the Northeast. So, I'd say NGL growth in the Northeast is flattened and you've seen less demand for railcars for oil. So, we've seen the pricing come down and good strong prices in the Northeast. So, I think it's just tied to differentials for propane particularly. For the heaviers, we've entered into some side contracts, so to speak. We talked about that in the past where those marketers have found better markets than going into the sort of the Northeast pool. So, I think it's a combination of all that.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay. Great. Helpful. And then maybe just any commentary you can give on the quarterly cadence? I mean, the one key production number was, I think, nicely above the Street and so just kind of thinking through the 2017 guidance and kind of how the quarters might roll through that?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. I think you'll see gradual growth over the next quarter or so and then we're a bit more back-end loaded like some of the other peers this year with more of our completions coming in the second half of the year, probably over 60% of the completions are in the second half of the year.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe one more final one, if I could, just on the ethane, you probably peaked. It looks like you had a very strong ethane quarter. You're producing above your capacity on ATEX. So, I guess, are you selling into the market using MarkWest, or how should we think about you guys getting those ethane volumes to market?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. We continue to increase our ethane recovery just to keep pace, to keep our residue gas from being too rich, and so we've got a number of side deals with buyers in different directions. And so, the sides and in other directions than ATEX, we have sales deals to sell some of our ethane to other buyers.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Great. Thanks, guys.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Newall of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Carlos Newall - Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, guys.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Good morning.

Carlos Newall - Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Analyst

Building on the ethane discussion, ethane sales continued to come in higher than expected. Going forward, how should we think about the composition of the average NGL barrel? Should we stick with the partial CT recovery mix provided back in 2Q 2016, suggesting about 25% ethane, or should we adjust ethane higher?

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. The 25% ethane is approximately what it was for this quarter. I believe we had approximately 70,000 barrels of NGL C3+ and the 25,000 barrels of ethane. So that's a good proxy for going forward.

Carlos Newall - Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. And also could you provide an update on projected firm transport utilization and also what component of excess transport is currently unmarketable and any color on that would be helpful.

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Well, we certainly have some good firm transport coming. It's debatable as to when it comes online, is it July, August, September in that timeframe, and I'm talking about the Rover Pipeline. So we do have some capacity coming. But keep in mind that Phase 2 of that should follow only three months or so later. And when Phase 2 comes, then Rover will be connected to our Marcellus production and to Sherwood. So Rover, we're likely to fill fairly quickly because we can utilize that from both areas.

Carlos Newall - Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. Thanks, guys.

Glen C. Warren - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from David Tameron of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. I guess, to just building on that last question, what is your outlook, as we start thinking about ethane rejection, how do you see that or how do you see those prices, I guess, playing – that arbitrage playing over the next couple of years?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Well, the ethane economics right now are such that it's better to leave the ethane in the stream rejected and get the gas value for it, if we're just looking at, say, gas value at TECO. And so what we need to recover in order to not get our stream too rich. But the outlook would be that we need ethane prices at least in the low $0.30 range to make ethane recovery more economic.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then, if I just think about your firm transport, obviously, it's your whole portfolio. Obviously, it's allowed you to get to where you needed to get combined with the hedges. Going forward, as we start thinking about the ramp in the Marcellus and in the pipelines, there's probably less value tomorrow than there was right yesterday, but how should we think about that? And how do you think about just that value of the firm transport portfolio, say, two years down the road?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. So, today, the differentials are shrinking in Dom South and Tetco M2 relative to some of the other indices, and that's because more distressed gas out of those pools is being bought to fill producers, shippers' available capacity in some of the new projects. So tightening differentials. We still have a couple – several more projects to come on between now, and the end of 2019, those being Columbia's Mountaineers and the Gulf Xpress' and so on. But we project for Antero alone those will come on, and then we fill them relatively quickly within one to two years. So with our growth plans, we definitely need the FT that we've signed up for. I think a number of people are looking at rig counts and trying to judge whether there is going to be available capacity, available FT longer term, for people to move into unused space or whether the pipes are going to fill up. There's been a couple of newer twists, newer developments of couple of projects that are utility pool projects, one is to the Southeast, Atlantic Coast Pipeline with the Southeast Utilities backing that one, and they want to buy in the Marcellus pool at the beginning of their pipes. So that's a situation where producers are not being asked to sign up, but instead there's a sales point directly in the heart of our acreage. Second one is Nexus going to the Northwest, a similar situation utility pool. So we're watching the environment. We know that we'll be moving quite a bit more gas but will it be us that sponsors the project or signs up or will it be doing longer-term deals into utility pool projects. And so we've got the number of years to judge how that all unfolds.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Thanks for the color, Paul.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Singer of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Good morning, Brian. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: You talked a bit earlier in your prepared remarks on the acquisitions that you've made in Southwest PA and you also mentioned the core position that you put together to the degree that you now have the largest core drilling opportunity in Appalachia as you described. Is there the need for consolidation from here? And is the opportunity set as attractive as it has been from your perspective over the last year or so?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

The opportunity set is still attractive. We favor more of the A&D side than the M&A side. And so we are able to – basically saying we're able to work with other companies, other peers that have acreage that they are willing to sell, that's not strategic for them. So see good things coming along. And so it is still a good environment for consolidation, maybe it'll shrink in size and it's more smaller tracks and then there is more efficiency consolidation going on where trades are being made between the various players, the various competitors both in the Marcellus and the Utica. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thank you. And then my follow-up is with regards to transportation cost, you have the guidance out there for operating expense for the year, but I wonder if you could give us a little more color on how the unit transportation costs should evolve between now and in 2018 and with and without – or before and after Rover?

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Yeah. I think our range out there is I think $0.075 to $0.125 per M and I think we'll just have to evaluate as Rover comes on and when it comes on and how we utilize that as to how that gets adjusted, if it gets adjusted as we go throughout the year. But I think longer term, we expect that to be in that range or below and then eventually it evaporates by the time we get out to the 2020 or so because we're starting to fill all of that capacity. So we feel very good about our capacity as we said earlier. We fill it all up by the year 2021 based on our growth plan. So we'll be looking for what's next, whether it's taking out some of the pipe that's being built out there right now, there's some available. There may be some that becomes available or potentially longer-term maybe there needs to be another project that we could be involved with. So we're looking certainly three, four, five years out on that. Brian Singer - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thank you.

Paul M. Rady - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Michael Kennedy for any closing remarks.

Michael N. Kennedy - Antero Resources Corp.

Management

Thank you for participating in our conference call today. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to contact us. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.